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[bangai-o]

the Michael Bay way

 

[sleepykyo]

Does this statment mean new consoles are coming out next year or that new consoles are three years out?

 

[subversus]

Can you name PS3/360 games which have been successful launching at 40 dollars? Because I can't think of a single one, off the top of my head.

Sniper (Ghost OPS or something like that) sold more than one million copies in less than 6 months.

 

[Ickman3400]

Does this statment mean new consoles are coming out next year or that new consoles are three years out?

An E3 2012 reveal for the big 2 feels right and like it could it actually happen, with a release in 2013. Maybe they could push them out by the end of 2012 for the holiday season but I don't think they will.

 

[Prine]

Fully agree. Technological barriers stifle creativity.

Spot on. Agreed also.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

That ecosystem can't compensate for the consumer. This issue is on the consumer end as well. More so.

You guys need to stopped yelling at the wall because this CEO is right on the button. This year proves him right. The hottest games, most anticipated games are all sequels or the next game in an existing IP. Dead Space, Dragon Age, The Witcher, Portal, Mass effect, Infamous, SOCOM, Killzone, Uncharted, Elder Scrolls, blah blah blah blah blah.

The only one with guys for a major new IP is Rockstar and that can easily backfire on them. As a cycle goes on, it IS harder to introduce new IPs. I don't know how you can argue otherwise.

Take a look at your personal most wanted lists. I'm gong to bet at least half are sequels. The industry's/consumer's most wanted? Probably 70-80%.

I agree with you, but I still would feel that perhaps the situation of consumers just buying sequels could be changed by a console that constantly reinvented itself marketing and game selection wise.

 

[subversus]

LA Noir will outsell every game in the month of May, even if it stinks. Learn how to market your shit properly and launching a new IP isn't overwhelmingly oppressive. If Ubisoft is arguing that EndWar, HAWX, and RUSE did poorly simply because they were new IP, they need to reevaluate where they're spending their resources.

the problem is that Rockstar uses other means to rich more mainstream audience. Like a good story and movie-like presentation + making core mechanics strong and fun.

Ubisoft and other publishers don't know how to do this because they don't have Housers.

Take Two actually let creative people do games they want to do (Bioshock, Rockstar output, The Darkness, Borderlands) and that's why they're rewarded. Someone in the management has huge balls and knows how to preserve preserve good ideas.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

Hmm. Moreand more publishers plus devs talking about next gen. Perhaps announcements at this E3 and a release in Nov 2012 aren't outof the question.

 

[Kintaro]

I agree with you, but I still would feel that perhaps the situation of consumers just buying sequels could be changed by a console that constantly reinvented itself marketing and game selection wise.

Didn't Microsoft just try to do this with Kinect? Before that was kinder looking avatars or something?

The problem that potentially comes into play is that while you're spending marketing dollars informing people how your console just reinvented itself again, your competitor just announced their new system. Which is also more exciting than marketing an existing machine.

 

[Oppo]

Fully agree. Technological barriers stifle creativity.

I actually disagree with this. I think limits often spur creativity.

I remember Michel Gondry had a quote about that at some point. Basically, went like, if you had unlimited budget for a film, you will spend a huge amount of time, and it will probably be a disaster, because there aren't any real hard limits. It's when you are forced to work within the confines of a set space of parameters that you often see the most creative results.

Don't get me wrong, it's always better to have a nicer canvas or what have you, but I don't think it's the tech that is the major limiting factor these days.

 

[Kai Dracon]

Seems to be a bit of a trick statement.

When a platform is new, sure - a shotgun pattern of games get thrown out and consumers are willing to try anything.

However, the way publishers have worked for the last decade, the moment there's a single breakout hit, fuck creativity and fresh ideas - ream that bastard for all it's worth. The deluge of clones pretty much happens overnight.

Call of Duty was the multiplatform standout early in this generation, so what happens? Instantly it's nothing but grimdark military first person shooters as all publishers chase that CoD dollar.

Publishers like Ubisoft want a new platform to invigorate sales, but will just treat it the same as they did every previous platform. Then they'll whine they want a new platform a few years later to repeat the cycle.

The hoodwink in this strategy will be revealed when technology hits even more of a plateau than it already has and selling a new box for fresh shaders to the mass market becomes harder. What will publishers say when they actually have to continue to make interesting and original titles, evenly spaced, without ruining the market by saturating it in a dogpile over the latest fad.

 

[volturnus]

Just because it needs restating: he's not saying that new tech produces new ideas. He's saying that its safer to launch new ideas at or near new console launches due to people's buying habits.

And he's completely right, apart from the fact that Ubisoft is not being creative at all with their 3DS titles, for instance.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Didn't Microsoft just try to do this with Kinect? Before that was kinder looking avatars or something?

The problem that potentially comes into play is that while you're spending marketing dollars informing people how your console just reinvented itself again, your competitor just announced their new system. Which is also more exciting than marketing an existing machine.

Kinect is a little different since the original audience of the console probably doesn't own it and that limits your userbase. I do agree that there are lots of issues with that plan though and probably couldn't be done with three first-parties on the market.

 

[Pureauthor]

In this is an implicit admission that the current market situation/industry model sucks donkey.

 

[Rygar 8 Bit]

NO!

Screw you Ubisoft, I don't want to buy another console for another 4-5 years.

 

[Kintaro]

And he's completely right, apart from the fact that Ubisoft is not being creative at all with their 3DS titles, for instance.

Shadow Wars is pretty cool actually...

NO!

Screw you Ubisoft, I don't want to buy another console for another 4-5 years.

Did you just upgrade from a PS2? How are you finding the experience? You got a good ten years out of that bad boy.

 

[Jerk]

That's why I included the previous two questions.

He's not saying that developers aren't creative, but that new ideas are too financially risky relative to the amount of consumers willing to try new ideas at the end of a cycle. He then argues that this lack of creativity creates a feedback loop which causes customers to spend less as things don't feel new enough, which makes launching new games even more risky, and that this keeps repeating.

The seemingly obvious answer to this would be to offer something new when things start to homogenize, but his argument is that even though consumers want new experiences, they're not willing to risk getting burned on $60 purchases at the end of a cycle when there are so many homogenized titles that they know they will at least somewhat enjoy. However, he seems to feel that this hesitance goes away when new hardware comes out since there aren't many titles people know they will actually like, and thus they will risk trying new things since they want to use their new systems.

As much as I dislike what he is implying, it is a fairly well thought out argument; I see why the guy is still in charge.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

NO!

Screw you Ubisoft, I don't want to buy another console for another 4-5 years.

Then don't? If a new console came out tomorrow nobody woukd be forcing you to buy it. Many of us are dead tired of the current hardware and want new more capable hardware. I bet you scream bloody murder when a new version of your car is released yearly to, right?

 

[Gravijah]

Did you just upgrade from a PS2? How are you finding the experience? You got a good ten years out of that bad boy.

Haha, lately my PS3 has been my PS2 machine.

 

[1-D_FTW]

That ecosystem can't compensate for the consumer. This issue is on the consumer end as well. More so.

You guys need to stopped yelling at the wall because this CEO is right on the button. This year proves him right. The hottest games, most anticipated games are all sequels or the next game in an existing IP. Dead Space, Dragon Age, The Witcher, Portal, Mass effect, Infamous, SOCOM, Killzone, Uncharted, Elder Scrolls, blah blah blah blah blah.

The only one with guys for a major new IP is Rockstar and that can easily backfire on them. As a cycle goes on, it IS harder to introduce new IPs. I don't know how you can argue otherwise.

Take a look at your personal most wanted lists. I'm gong to bet at least half are sequels. The industry's/consumer's most wanted? Probably 70-80%.

But what you're describing isn't really creativity. UBI just wants a market reset so they can get more of their IPs established as that gen's "It" products at the expense of their competitors market share numbers.

A new generation brings bigger budgets. Bigger budgets are going to bring even less creativity and deviation from mainstream expectations. That's the FUD of it. Each generation has gotten progressively less experimental as budgets rise and more and more developers go bankrupt from a single failure. This is about the publishers wanting to expand their entrenched market share numbers (even if the games themselves, new IP or not, become even more homogenized and simplified as a result of the bigger budget realities).

 

[Danny Dudekisser]

No, they need more talented developers.

 

[crazy monkey]

honestly speaking other than graphics what kind of new innovation current gen is stooping? ps3 and 360 specially.

I agree to the point that even if the new console has minor improvement the customer curiosity for new hardware will dive lots of software.

 

[Kintaro]

But what you're describing isn't really creativity. UBI just wants a market reset so they can get more of their IPs established as that gen's "It" products at the expense of their competitors market share numbers.

In theory, he wants to expand his company's portfolio of games with new IP. Can't fault him for that.

All of those sequels coming out this year? All were once new IPs that came out early in the system's lifespan. Can't blame him for wanting to do it again.

From a purely personal standpoint, I desire a new generation. LA Noire, for example, is a pretty decent looking game outside of the very cool capturing technique (which, if you believe Rockstar, features heavily into the gameplay). However, the rest of the game does not hold up. Even in the trailers you can see framerate fuck ups, messy textures and all sorts of that things that make the game look less than stellar. It looks as if the systems could crack just looking at it. Put that bad boy on PC or new console and then we're probably really cookin'. =D

 

[Graphics Horse]

In this is an implicit admission that the current market situation/industry model sucks donkey.

Exactly.

 

[CoffeeJanitor]

Fully agree. Technological barriers stifle creativity.

Completely disagree. Limits imposed upon creative people are a catalyst for creativity.

 

[Owzers]

In this is an implicit admission that the current market situation/industry model sucks donkey.

And the solution is to have another generation just like this one but with more powerful consoles

 

[TheExecutive]

Hmm. Moreand more publishers plus devs talking about next gen. Perhaps announcements at this E3 and a release in Nov 2012 aren't outof the question.

Not out of the question but unlikely. 2013 release just seems more likely.

 

[DidntKnowJack]

It's as if most of the people on GAF have gone mad. All of a sudden new hardware results in creativity? Some of the most creative games this generation have been small indie games or on the under powered Wii. What were the creative masterpieces that came out at the start of this current generation of high end consoles? Fuck me, most of the creative games this generation were on the NIntendo DS.

 

[rosjos44]

I don't see why publishers cannot be creative and release new IPs even if it is late into a consoles life

there are some publishers who are releasing new IP
Last Guardian
Nino Kuni
El Shaddai
BulletStorm
Brink
Shadows of the Damned
Devil's Third
Kingdoms
and etc

Hell some publishers have been lazy and have not even released a sequel to a franchise yet
Hitman
F Zero
Suikoden
Twisted Metal
we had 3 Burnout games last gen and so far we only had 1 and it wasn't a traditional Burnout game
we had 2 MGS games last gen and 2 substance updates and a remake so far only 1 MGS game
we had 2 major Final Fantasy games and 1 spin off last gen so far we got 1 shitty FF game
we had 3 GTA games last gen so far we have 1
we had 3 DMC games last gen so far only 1 DMC game
We had 3 Tales of games last gen so far only 1

But be creative and successful this late into this generations console cycle is very difficult.

 

[Barry Lightning]

i mean whats so important that has happened in the pc arena that has dramatically changed video games that the consoles are missing out on? better graphics? big fucking whoop. until we're at a level of visual change like that Unreal "Samaritan" demo running on 3 cards, i hardly see how new hardware will improve gaming.

it's all relative, i know, and people here will cite the withcer 2 as some dramatic leap in graphics, as an example. i not only disagree with that example but again fail to realize what has changed SO DRAMATICALLY in the past 5 years that we would need new hardware for.

when you consider the change from xbox to ps3/360 for example: 100% built-in networking; wifi; hd graphcis resolutions...pretty dramatic changes that fundamentally affect gameplay (widescreen perspectives, for example)...

sorry, just don't see it.

 

[-Pyromaniac-]

Like already stated, I don't buy the comments in the OP because we're seeing lots of great and original upcoming games.

But with that said I think this gen is getting a bit old. I give it one more year until things start noticeably slowing down.

 

[gutter_trash]

pretty graphics and physics don't make the game;

if that was the case then their games in this current gen should have been better than their last gen games

but that is not the case

 

[Bay Maximus]

Completely disagree. Limits imposed upon creative people are a catalyst for creativity.

Exactly. Necessity is the mother of invention, or something like that. Boundaries and challenges force people to tackle a problem and new (and creative) ways.

That said, I do agree with what the CEO is saying. He makes a good point. New systems in 2012 CONFIRMED

 

[low-G]

It's depressing that we've gotten to the point where gamers will only buy enough of a new IP or creative idea if they're forced to, if there's no other options (like at a new system launch).

I don't think it has one bit to do with the technology. There's a lot of other creative ideas that haven't been explored one bit on current platforms. They just don't do it because of the business realities.

 

[carlo6529]

It doesn't matter when a new IP releases. If people are informed that the game is fun, innovative and polished, it will sell whether it be in the former or latter half of the gen cycle. Releasing a new console just for the sake of releasing new ip's is just an excuse to release a shit game in a market where your game will sell regardless because of the lack of competition.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Using the 3DS launch as an example of what they would do does not instill confidence.

 

[Chris_C]

Fully agree. Technological barriers stifle creativity.

Sure, if you're not creative.

I agree that technology can allow you to explore new creative areas, but working within a box forces lateral thinking.

 

[milsorgen]

In other words, they need better graphics that can wow players and cover up their crappy game design. Gotcha!

This. I also don't buy that users are less likely to try new things at the end of a cycle, because most people buying games wouldn't even be aware of console cycles and the like.

 

[MrPliskin]

Fully agree. Technological barriers stifle creativity.

I disagree, very strongly. Technology NEVER stifles creativity. If that were the case, we wouldn't have seen so many astonishing titles on the DS, or crazy and artistic games on DD services like XBLA, PSN, or WiiWare.

What stifles creativity isn't technology, it's the necessity for these companies to continuously turn a profit under the thumb of publishers, meanwhile being terrified of introducing new IP with big budgets (rightfully so).

Technology isn't the problem.

 

[FoneBone]

I understand his point, but I'm not looking forward to the strong possibility of another industry crash accompanying new hardware.

 

[Kintaro]

This. I also don't buy that users are less likely to try new things at the end of a cycle, because most people buying games wouldn't even be aware of console cycles and the like.

I think people are more aware of console cycles than you think.

I do buy that people are less likely at trying new things later though. For example, Homefront. If Homefront came out at the start of the gen, it would have been forgiven for its many shortcomings. Now? It fucked over THQ and will leave a bad taste in people's mouths going forward.

For example, why should I try Brink now? I've never heard of it and the last new IP I tried to get a chance to sucked big fat ass. It is in the same genre and says its multiplayer is awesome, but Homefront said the same. Fuck it, I'll just keep playing CoD.

I mean, come on. Bad reviews about a new IP can now fuck up your stock! Meanwhile you can shit out a turd like Dragon Age 2 and people stuff it down based on name alone.

 

[Haint]

He's right, it would be very difficult (if not impossible) to launch a new IP as successful as Assassin's Creed or Gears of War on current hardware. New gen wow factor sells a shit ton of copies.

 

[Guy Legend]

PS3 and XB360 can go for several years. The technology is still good and the intro of motion peripherals effectively lengthens their life spans even further.

I can't believe there are people who still buy the Wii - unbelievable that gamecube visuals is still being sold in Nintendo's primary home console. There's no reason for third party companies to spend development dollars for it. Hopefully Nintendo's next console isn't far away.

 

[gutter_trash]

explains their focus on "holding you hand" in their current gen sequels of last gen spawned franchises

 

[Pureauthor]

He's right, it would be very difficult (if not impossible) to launch a new IP as successful as Assassin's Creed or Gears of War on current hardware. New gen wow factor sells a shit ton of copies.

The problem is that the 'wow factor' is fast becoming financially unsustainable, even on current-gen hardware. What the industry needs to do is to basically overhaul the whole damn business model that relies on bigger and flashier as the main draw, not accelerate the whole process to breaking point.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

PS3 and XB360 can go for several years. The technology is still good and the intro of motion peripherals effectively lengthens their life spans even further.

I can't believe there are people who still buy the Wii - unbelievable that gamecube visuals is still being sold in Nintendo's primary home console. There's no reason for third party companies to spend development dollars for it. Hopefully Nintendo's next console isn't far away.

The tech is ancient on the 360/ PS3. The ram on both is less than cell phones for goodness sake. The GPU's of both are like old farts in the wind. The Will was outdated day 1 but the other 2 have joined it.

 

[Chairman Yang]

The problem is that the 'wow factor' is fast becoming financially unsustainable, even on current-gen hardware. What the industry needs to do is to basically overhaul the whole damn business model that relies on bigger and flashier as the main draw, not accelerate the whole process to breaking point.

Agreed. If it's consumer psychology that prevents new IPs from succeeding, then publishers should use marketing budgets to change that psychology. Making new hardware can't be the only way to spur consumers to try new things. Heck, if the big established franchises feel stagnant enough, maybe consumers will embrace new IPs on their own.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

The funniest thing about this is that a vast majority of the fresh and creative games this generation could comfortably run on low end hardware.

The amount of stuff that we haven't done with current technology greatly dwarfs the amount of stuff we can't do due to current technology.

Either way they will have to wait. The earliest a new platform can be released is 2012, and I'd assume it would be Holiday season 2012 with the rest following a year later.

Its not as if these titles are small curiosities either, they're the titles that define this generation, just like GTA3 and Halo defined last generation, two titles that only became possible because of advancements in technology.

To be fair though, the effect that games like GTA 3, Splinter Cell, and Devil May Cry had on the industry were much more fresh and immense. There clearly is a plateau occurring in performance = opportunity.

Again, just like nothing is stopping Developers making big games with PS2 (or PS1) era graphics -- technically speaking. The market, however, would almost certainly reject them, because Sony has deliberately crafted a market that values high end graphics. It's a major selling point of the system.

Similarly, this CEO is not saying that it's technically impossible to create new IPs in the current market ecosystem, he's saying that those new IPs will be rejected by the marketplace as customers solidify around a few top franchises (e.g. CoD). New generations shake up this dynamic and cause new kings to be crowned -- the way CoD was early in this gen, or GTA was early last.

Exactly. This seems to be a stigma only suffered by gaming consoles that highly annoys me.

 

[KittenMaster]

I wholeheartedly disagree with technical limitations stifling creativity as well. By limitations being in place technology wise, it forces creativity in making other aspects of a game excel to make up for it.

 

[GQman2121]

I think it's obvious that gamers are prone to try new IPs when a console launches, simply because their options are so limited. I mean duh.....

It's interesting that he mentions that the industry is in a depression though, because there seems to be more AAA titles coming out regularly this year, than any other this generation.

So I'm not buying that notion that their creativity is all of the sudden being stunted because they don't have the balls to take a risk this late in game. Gamers deserve more credit than that. Good games--that are marketed properly--turn a profit.