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(US) Hardware Estimates for 2007
- Thread starter thestopsign
- Start date
underfooter
Banned
professor_t said:
:lol :lol :lol
rs7k said:
not picking on this post in particular, but this is way too many consoles in my opinion
that's over 15 million home consoles sold in 2007, and that never happened in one year during the ps2 generation and these systems are all priced considerably higher than their last gen counterparts. i understand the market can grow, but i don't think this is the year to see it.
Wyndstryker
Member
DS: 6.7 mill , the pokebomb hasn't dropped in NA yet.
PSP: 2.6 mill , it's just dwidling. good games mean jack if it's on a system with an identity crisis.
Wii: 4.9 mill , production issues will be a problem, but if nintendo pulls out some crazy wildcard game and increased production, this number can rise to lvls i would never expect.
360: 4.8 mill , just under the Wii, it'll cement it's position with hardcores and catch some more gamers, but still doesn't have the diversity to push it higher. Halo 3 will push, but by now most that wants Halo should probably already have a 360.
PS3: 2.6 mill , Price....sure certain pre-mentioned games will push sales but not as much as people would think. No price drop officially but retailers would do it just to push consoles out.
PSP: 2.6 mill , it's just dwidling. good games mean jack if it's on a system with an identity crisis.
Wii: 4.9 mill , production issues will be a problem, but if nintendo pulls out some crazy wildcard game and increased production, this number can rise to lvls i would never expect.
360: 4.8 mill , just under the Wii, it'll cement it's position with hardcores and catch some more gamers, but still doesn't have the diversity to push it higher. Halo 3 will push, but by now most that wants Halo should probably already have a 360.
PS3: 2.6 mill , Price....sure certain pre-mentioned games will push sales but not as much as people would think. No price drop officially but retailers would do it just to push consoles out.
dirtmonkey37
flinging feces ---->
DS - 5 Million
Xbox 360 - 5 Million
PS2 - 2 Million
PS3 - 3 Million
Wii - 5 Million (They're still impossible to find and Nintendo isactually shipping these things.....)
That's a lot of consoles.....
Xbox 360 - 5 Million
PS2 - 2 Million
PS3 - 3 Million
Wii - 5 Million (They're still impossible to find and Nintendo isactually shipping these things.....)
That's a lot of consoles.....
Forgotten Ancient
Banned
DS: 7 Million (Would be more, but supply is going to hold them back)
PSP: 2.8 Million (I might be part of this 2.8 million estimate)
Wii: 6 Million (I believe it'll do approx 3 million just during the holiday season)
PS3: 3 Million (I won't be one of the 3 Million)
360: 6.6 Million (Price Drop, Awesome Lineup...this could be conservative considering their direction competition).
PS2: 2 Million
GBA: 2.5 Million
Gamecube: 224
Xbox: 19
PSP: 2.8 Million (I might be part of this 2.8 million estimate)
Wii: 6 Million (I believe it'll do approx 3 million just during the holiday season)
PS3: 3 Million (I won't be one of the 3 Million)
360: 6.6 Million (Price Drop, Awesome Lineup...this could be conservative considering their direction competition).
PS2: 2 Million
GBA: 2.5 Million
Gamecube: 224
Xbox: 19
Forgotten Ancient
Banned
BSTF said:
BSTF
this post rates 6/10
(Yesterday, 11:59 PM)
DS - 12M
Wii - 5M
X360 - 6M
PS3 - 3M
PSP - 2M
DS: Will ride on the strength of Pokemon for the entire year.
X360: All that matters is Halo 3. Halo 3 should most likely break some software records here and there first day. Should be 2nd to Pokemon DS when the year is over when it comes to total sales.
PS3: Software might be nice but 600 bucks is 600 bucks. Consumers will go to X360 and Wii to satisfy their tastes.
PSP: Probably 2nd to last year on market before Sony introduces PSP2.
Wii: Nintendo should have their shipping problems fixed. Super Mario Galaxy is their most important title of the year. If it rocks and is revolutionary then the Wii will sell 5M. If it sucks then I honestly see Wii underselling. Mario has had his revival in 2d now he could use another one for 3d.
Wii - 5M
X360 - 6M
PS3 - 3M
PSP - 2M
DS: Will ride on the strength of Pokemon for the entire year.
X360: All that matters is Halo 3. Halo 3 should most likely break some software records here and there first day. Should be 2nd to Pokemon DS when the year is over when it comes to total sales.
PS3: Software might be nice but 600 bucks is 600 bucks. Consumers will go to X360 and Wii to satisfy their tastes.
PSP: Probably 2nd to last year on market before Sony introduces PSP2.
Wii: Nintendo should have their shipping problems fixed. Super Mario Galaxy is their most important title of the year. If it rocks and is revolutionary then the Wii will sell 5M. If it sucks then I honestly see Wii underselling. Mario has had his revival in 2d now he could use another one for 3d.
JJConrad said:
That's what I was thinking, too, but this could be interesting. This is basically a totally blind guess as we don't have January's data to begin trend analysis from. As you already said ...
JJConrad said:
aloof said:
This dude has no clue. Of course, I think we already knew that from his previous posts. :lol
Note: If I do the results for this next year (I did it for 2006), I'm only going to count people who predicted at least the following systems.
PS2
GBA
NDS
PSP
360
PS3
WII
That's at least 7 systems to predict for. If you have less than that and want to be sure to be included in the results, go back to add predictions for the missing systems.
2007 Predictions
1. NDS - 7.0 million
2. WII - 6.5 million
3. 360 - 6.0 million
4. PS2 - 4.1 million
5. PS3 - 3.8 million
6. PSP - 2.5 million
7. GBA - 2.4 million
8. GCN - 0.4 million
9. XBX - 0.0 million
Total: 32.8 million (shattering the previous number of systems sold in a year record)
Discussion
1. NDS - 7.0 million
This year is Pokemon for the DS and a continuation of its massive sales from the introduction for the DS Lite. GBA did almost 8 million in the year Pokemon was brought to the system, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the NDS go even higher.
2. WII - 6.5 million
This is the new PS2 for this generation as far as hardware sales go. The PS2 did over 6 million in its first full year. I suspect the WII will actually fall below 6.5 million, but that will be due to shortages next Christmas similar to the shortages this past Christmas. Nintendo is only projected to produce 12 million of these machines worldwide, so I'm counting on them increasing production during this year.
3. 360 - 6.0 million
If it weren't for Halo 3 coming out this year, this prediction would be more like 4.5 million (360 did 3.9 million last year). Halo 3 will bring in the console sales this fall, though.
4. PS2 - 4.1 million
It will continue its decline from the past few years (2005 being an aberration due to the shortages at the end of 2004 pushing some hardware sales to 2005), but it'll still sell pretty well. PS3 isn't an enticing system for most PS2 buyers, at this stage, to pick up, so most will still get a PS2. It'll be very interesting to see what happens if the PS2 drops to $99, but I think Sony won't do that this year to try to offset PS3 losses.
5. PS3 - 3.8 million
360 did 3.9 million in 2006, so this would put it basically even with the 360 after both system's first year on market. Considering the significantly higher price of the PS3 (in the general consumer's eye), that is saying quite a lot for the Playstation brand power.
6. PSP - 2.5 million
PSP was lower in 2006 than it was in 2005, and the system looks likely to continue a decline.
7. GBA - 2.4 million
Continuing its decline, as well, but this could also be affected by how many systems Nintendo actually puts out on the market. i.e. Nintendo may ship significantly fewer than 2.4 million to the U.S. in 2007.
8. GCN - 0.4 million
This is about half of its 2006 total, and this could also be affected by a lack of systems on the market.
9. XBX - 0.0 million
This is actually around 40-50K, but I'm only predicting to the nearest 100K. It'll sell about 1K per week for the year, and this is heavily due to Microsoft not putting any systems on the market.
donny2112 said:
and you expect this record to happen (including 16.3 million next generation systems) with wii at $250, 360 at $400, and ps3 at $600? even with price drops, it just defies reason. 2002 was the most lucrative year in the last generation, and that was with no console higher than $199 for the last 6.5 months of the year. 2002 was not a 16.3 million next-gen console year.
Forgotten Ancient
Banned
Odysseus said:
Well, 2002 also didn't have 3 relatively high selling portables. The PSP+DS+GBA combination will sell a lot more than the GBA(SP) did back then. Also, the PS2 will probably still sell strong, while I expect the 360 to increase over last year by a fair amount. The Wii could further become a "cultural phenomenon" while the PS3 could surprise us.
The Gamecube sold for shit, the Xbox sold for shit, the 64 was dead, the PSOne was on it's way out, and only the PS2/GBA had great sales in 2002.
I think it can happen. Believe.
Odysseus said:
I expect it to break it due to having three viable console systems (vs. usually two (GCN+XBX = 1 decent PS2 competitor) in previous generations) and three decent handhelds selling (vs. usually one in previous generations). The total for the year definitely gives me severe pause due to the total money being spent, but that's what I'm putting down for the year as of January. By March, I may have different totals in mind, though.
donny2112 said:I expect it to break it due to having three viable console systems (vs. usually two (GCN+XBX = 1 decent PS2 competitor) in previous generations) and three decent handhelds selling (vs. usually one in previous generations). The total for the year definitely gives me severe pause due to the total money being spent, but that's what I'm putting down for the year as of January. By March, I may have different totals in mind, though.
i just don't see that many people being ready to part with that much money. for it to happen, nintendo would have to be crazy successful attracting new gamers, and they might even have to buy stuff twice.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Pshaw. Just a scant half-million each month through October, 1.7 million in November and 3.3 million in December.AniHawk said:
It might be approaching that for 2007 worldwide by April, though considering a good 800K were supposed to be in shipping at the end of the year I wouldn't even expect a full 3 million sold by then.koam said:
RainbowL33T
Member
I don't expect the PS3 to stay low all year.Come summer with the release of some good title I see them starting to sell more hardware than microsoft for the rest of the year.Maybe only november will Sony get behind a bit,but not by much.
Like pretty much all people, I believe the Wii to be the wildcard.If they can generate and keep a big buzz all year with a good flow of traditional and wild game,I expect them to be alone in front and for all this generation.
Like pretty much all people, I believe the Wii to be the wildcard.If they can generate and keep a big buzz all year with a good flow of traditional and wild game,I expect them to be alone in front and for all this generation.
EverSoTrendy
Banned
DS - 10mill
PSP - 1.5mill
Xbox360 - 8mill
Wii - 7mill
PS3 - 2mill
PSP - 1.5mill
Xbox360 - 8mill
Wii - 7mill
PS3 - 2mill
jeremy1456
Junior Member
Wii: 4.5 million
Xbox 360: 4.3 million
PS3: 3 million
DS: 7 million
PSP: 2.5 million
Xbox 360: 4.3 million
PS3: 3 million
DS: 7 million
PSP: 2.5 million
X360 4.7 million- Based on Grand Theft Auto 4 and Halo 3 releasing in the fall. Combine that with a possible price cut on both the core and premium and those who bought a PS2 for casual games like GTA and Madden could turn over a new leaf. You still can't get GTA on the Wii, and surely those who picked up San Andreas will be anticipating the sequel.
Wii 4.4 million- The Wii needs games that will appeal to non Nintendo fans, you can only ride the hot and new train for so long. I've yet to meet a non gamer that purchased a Wii because of the experience/hype. I've met some excited parents that wanted to purchase one for junior because they viewed it as a possible alternative to no physical activity. Will it remain a kids Christmas gift when the hype dies down or will the software sell the system to potential 360 and PS3 owners?
PS3 3.6 million- The $600 price tag (seeing as how nobody wants the $500 version) is obviously the major roadblock. Throw in the obvious software drought and people seeing the 360 as a good alternative and you have Sony pulling up the rear.
Wii 4.4 million- The Wii needs games that will appeal to non Nintendo fans, you can only ride the hot and new train for so long. I've yet to meet a non gamer that purchased a Wii because of the experience/hype. I've met some excited parents that wanted to purchase one for junior because they viewed it as a possible alternative to no physical activity. Will it remain a kids Christmas gift when the hype dies down or will the software sell the system to potential 360 and PS3 owners?
PS3 3.6 million- The $600 price tag (seeing as how nobody wants the $500 version) is obviously the major roadblock. Throw in the obvious software drought and people seeing the 360 as a good alternative and you have Sony pulling up the rear.
mylilbuddy
Banned
2007 Predictions
1. NDS - 7.0 million
2. WII - 4.2 million
3. 360 - 4.0 million
4. PS2 - 3.9 million
5. PS3 - 3.3 million
6. PSP - 2.2 million
7. GBA - 1.8 million
8. GCN - 0.5 million
9. XBX - 0.0 million
1. NDS - 7.0 million
2. WII - 4.2 million
3. 360 - 4.0 million
4. PS2 - 3.9 million
5. PS3 - 3.3 million
6. PSP - 2.2 million
7. GBA - 1.8 million
8. GCN - 0.5 million
9. XBX - 0.0 million
Ok, let me try:
DS ~ 7.8m - Pokebomb and a $30 price cut.
Wii ~ 5.5m - The new phenomenon, Its sales will only restricted by Nintendo's production capacity.
PS3 ~ 4.5m - It will sell, no doubt about it.
X360 ~ 4.5m - A little bit better than last year result because of so much great titles it will have in the next 12 months.
PS2 ~ 4m - Its sales will decrease this year dramatically.
PSP ~ 3m - Maybe a price cut helps it.
GBA ~ 2m
GC ~ 200k
Xbox ~ 40k
DS ~ 7.8m - Pokebomb and a $30 price cut.
Wii ~ 5.5m - The new phenomenon, Its sales will only restricted by Nintendo's production capacity.
PS3 ~ 4.5m - It will sell, no doubt about it.
X360 ~ 4.5m - A little bit better than last year result because of so much great titles it will have in the next 12 months.
PS2 ~ 4m - Its sales will decrease this year dramatically.
PSP ~ 3m - Maybe a price cut helps it.
GBA ~ 2m
GC ~ 200k
Xbox ~ 40k
AlternativeUlster
Absolutely pathetic part deux
DS - 7.3 million
Wii - 6.2 million
360 - 4.9 million
PS2 - 3.8 million
PS3 - 3.2 million
PSP - 2.8 million
Tiger Handheld version of Double Dragon II that is on a watch: 1.4 million
Notes:
DS - Pokemon.
Wii - Wii Fitness .
360 - Halo 3.
PS2 - 90 bazallion games worth playing for it.
PS3 - Metal Gear Solid 4?
PSP - UMDs go down to 5 dollars a piece, the price they should have been the first place, plus price drop.
Tiger Handheld version of Double Dragon II that is on a watch- it is a near unplayable version of Double Dragon II but I expect a sudden spike in Double Dragon popularity with a newly DVD SE release of the movie to help sell Tiger's overstock on this ink game adaptation.
Wii - 6.2 million
360 - 4.9 million
PS2 - 3.8 million
PS3 - 3.2 million
PSP - 2.8 million
Tiger Handheld version of Double Dragon II that is on a watch: 1.4 million
Notes:
DS - Pokemon.
Wii - Wii Fitness .
360 - Halo 3.
PS2 - 90 bazallion games worth playing for it.
PS3 - Metal Gear Solid 4?
PSP - UMDs go down to 5 dollars a piece, the price they should have been the first place, plus price drop.
Tiger Handheld version of Double Dragon II that is on a watch- it is a near unplayable version of Double Dragon II but I expect a sudden spike in Double Dragon popularity with a newly DVD SE release of the movie to help sell Tiger's overstock on this ink game adaptation.
Scalemail Ted
Member
Does anyone have a link to the thread from 2006?
LiquidMamba
Member
DS - 7
Wii - 4.5
360 - 4.3
PS2 - 4
PS3 - 3.8
PSP 2.8
GBA - 2.5
This could be a record setting year for total hardware sales.
Wii - 4.5
360 - 4.3
PS2 - 4
PS3 - 3.8
PSP 2.8
GBA - 2.5
This could be a record setting year for total hardware sales.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=91589Scalemail Ted said:
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