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Vivendi ups stake in Ubisoft to 20.1 percent, edges toward takeover

Kerned

Banned
Wouldn't the shareholders accept since they would be making money off selling IP's? Also, "insanity"??? Maybe the most insane idea could be the smartest idea.
Who would that benefit? Ubi would lose its IPs and therefore revenue, which would lead to layoffs, shareholders would lose money because the stock price would tank, Ubi wouldn't have the capital to invest in new projects so it's not like you'll be getting new games. It would be a disaster, not to mention probably illegal. A Vivendi takeover would be objectively better than that plan.
 

Kimawolf

Member
Here's a question -

Could Ubisoft sell off their IP's while this is going on in order to make the company worthless to where when Vivendi does a hostile takeover, they basically wouldn't have any IP's to take over?

you can't purposely cause harm. It's illegal, in America at least.
 

sflufan

Banned
Who would that benefit? Ubi would lose its IPs and therefore revenue, which would lead to layoffs, shareholders would lose money because the stock price would tank, Ubi wouldn't have the capital to invest in new projects so it's not like you'll be getting new games. It would be a disaster, not to mention probably illegal. A Vivendi takeover would be objectively better than that plan.

Exactly.

Such a plan -- which must be publicly disclosed -- would drive every stockholder to sell to Vivendi as soon as the market opens.
 

ZoddGutts

Member
I doubt this will end up being a big deal overall.

I wonder if the Guillemots will stick around once this is over. Frankly they can go screw themselves.

Yeah, after what they did with Patrice Désilets, I'm having a sensible chuckle with what's going on with their company right now.
 

duckroll

Member
Wouldn't the shareholders accept since they would be making money off selling IP's? Also, "insanity"??? Maybe the most insane idea could be the smartest idea.

Who is they? Shareholders want the company to have high profit margins so they can make money in their share investment either through dividends or share price. Selling off your IP for one time cash injections isn't "making money" in a business, it's selling off assets when you're broke. No healthy business would willingly do that.
 

jdstorm

Banned
I was actually wondering about that, if Nintendo would buy a large enough stake to keep Guillemot in charge in exchange for guaranteed long-term support for their consoles. The issue is that, according to the Financial Times, the Guillemots own just 8.7% of the company, with 15% of the voting rights. With a current market cap of €3.7 billion, Nintendo would need to spend €1.3 billion / $1.5 billion (or more likely quite a bit more, as share prices will be pushed up in a bidding war like this) in order to buy enough shares for Nintendo+Guillemots to have a 51% controlling stake. They have the cash for an acquisition like that, but it's a hell of a lot of money to drop on a bit of western third party support.

honestly. That still seems pretty smart. Disney spent billions on marvel and has definitely made it back. Though if I was Nintendo I would want to own Ubi outright and then just leave the Guillemonts in charge
 
D

Deleted member 80556

Unconfirmed Member
Also, didn't Guillemot say that they were in discussions with other partners for a possible merger? Or was that possibly damage control?
 

Josh5890

Member
Depending on how this plays out, it could be a bad sign for the industry as a whole. It is no secret that media conglomerates want to increase their portfolios and the video game industry is huge. We have already what Vivendi did to Blizzard and Sierra.

Look at how active Chinese firms have been with purchasing American assets. One of them could be on the verge of buying the UFC. What is stopping them from sinking their teeth into the industry and controlling most of the major publishers.

Maybe I going too far off the edge with this doom and gloom scenario, but I sincerely hope this isn't the outlook for the generation 10-15 years down the road.
 

Schnozberry

Member
What would Nintendo have to give Vivendi to secure NX support, though? Based on Activision's support under Vivendi's ownership and Ubisoft's support under Guillemot's reign, it would be reasonable to suppose that it would be easier (i.e. cheaper) to guarantee support from a Guillemot-run Ubi than a Vivendi-run Ubi.

Again, though, there's a financial difference here between taking a shareholding in a company and paying (through advertising buy-ins or however it would be structured) for the support directly. For Vivendi to have any interest in a Nintendo offer, Nintendo would have to (directly or indirectly) spend at least enough to offset the cost of porting the games. This means a cost of perhaps tens of millions of Euros each and every year they want to retain that support, and that's actual expenditure, not an asset purchase.

Taking aside the figure of €1.3b for a moment, if Nintendo buys any number of shares in Ubisoft (or any other publicly traded company) that's not expenditure, it's an asset purchase, and the asset is worth the same amount at the time of purchase as you spent on it (by definition). Publicly traded shares also have an expected future value equal to their current value (plus government bond yields), which is to say that in the median case, owning a share of a company for a given amount of time is equivalent to holding the same amount of cash. The difference, obviously, between holding shares and cash is that shares are volatile, and that cash isn't. Holding shares increases your portfolio risk (both on the upside and downside), so the "cost" of exchanging cash for shares for a company like Nintendo is entirely down to their risk aversion.

So the question becomes, how risk-averse are Nintendo versus how strategically beneficial would a stake in Ubisoft be for them? They obviously aren't throwing money around like Tencent with acquisitions, but they were willing to drop $200 million last year on a stake in DeNA when they felt it strategically advantageous, so you'd have to say they'd consider shareholdings in the low hundreds of millions of dollars if necessary. If the actual cost of buying enough shares to gain a "kingmaker" position of being able to keep Vivendi out is anywhere near €1.3b (which was only a rough calculation based on current share price and zero other friendly investors) then you'd have to say it would be well beyond Nintendo's historical trend when it comes to risk-aversion. If the same thing could be achieved with a ~10% stake in the company, however, then it may be the kind of thing that Nintendo would consider.

As it is, if the Guillemots haven't been able to prevent Vivendi from taking over Gameloft, then I don't see them finding anyone willing to come to their rescue this time around.

DeNA is a good example, because I think they fit in with multiple long term initiatives for Nintendo, whereas the benefits of buying into to Ubi are somewhat nebulous long term. DeNA had the experience to guide Nintendo into the unfamiliar waters of mobile development, help them with improving their own online infrastructure, and presumably the account system that will come to fruition on NX.

I could see Nintendo joining a cadre of friendly investors to get a seat on the board at Ubi and use that position of influence to get additional support for their platforms, but I would think a large share purchase would be out of the question. They've already committed a lot of capital dollars into making films, developing Amusement Parks, and into the R&D for the launch of NX.
 

Geist-

Member
Vivendi is obviously a terrible corporation that stifles creativity. But I've not exactly been happy with a lot of the games they've been putting out recently. E3 this year especially had a real problem with the presentation of their upcoming games, at least for me, which just looked...not great (except maybe For Honor).

If the outcome of this was that they sell themselves to another publisher who shook up their current approach at making and selling games, maybe it would be an improvement.
 
Meanwhile, the Bolloré Group (led by Vincent Bolloré) buys more Vivendi stock. They now own 15.33 % of shares and 16.41 % of voting rights.

Vincent Bolloré says he does not plan on taking over Vivendi but doesn't rule out buying more shares or asking for better representation at the supervisory board (exactly what happened with Gameloft and Ubisoft, by the way)

Source: http://votreargent.lexpress.fr/bour...euil-de-15-du-capital-de-vivendi_1804602.html
 

rackham

Banned
Why is Yves so scared of this takeover? I assume vivendi wants Ubisoft so they can keep making games and money. What's the problem?
 

KarmaCow

Member
Why is Yves so scared of this takeover? I assume vivendi wants Ubisoft so they can keep making games and money. What's the problem?

They could, or they could demand changes. Worrying about losing control over your company is pretty reasonable.
 

Chev

Member
Why is Yves so scared of this takeover? I assume vivendi wants Ubisoft so they can keep making games and money. What's the problem?

Because the first thing Vivendi will do is throw him out. Also they acquired a big french TV network a few years ago and have literally been gutting it, turning it into a mere shadow of its former self.
 

oti

Banned
Sorry for the bump, but I can't make a new thread. Looks like Ubisoft started a campaign called "We are Ubisoft". They changed their avatars on social networks (twitter etc.) and published a video about their independence

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5rc-LvXHb8

Looks like the situation is becoming worse for them...

I'm actually wondering what their goal here is. My guess would be to make their fans aware of their situation... but then what. Do they hope the fans will make enough of a fuss in order to scare investors of selling or agreeing with the takeover?

I think in the end this is just a passion project in the eye of the inevitable. I truly believe Guillemot wants to stay independent and that if would break his heart if Vivendi took over. But that's business.
 

DrWong

Member
They could, or they could demand changes. Losing control over your company is pretty reasonable.
They will, they have their own content needs.

Worth noting the Guillemot increased their shares in Ubisoft a few days ago, from 9.2% up to 12.84%, which represent 18,91% of the voting rights. It's less than Vivendi but the goal is for them to prevent Vivendi to hit the 30% shares (they're at 23%) before the next shareholders meeting, at the end of this month (Sept. 29). Because if it was the case, according to the French law, Vivendi would be forced to do a takeover bid (OPA).
 
Why is Yves so scared of this takeover? I assume vivendi wants Ubisoft so they can keep making games and money. What's the problem?

Dude, what? Would you want control of the company that you spent 30 years of your life to build from scratch to be taken from you? Even if Vivendi just let them do business as usual after the takeover (unlikely), that has to hurt a lot.
 
Why is Yves so scared of this takeover? I assume vivendi wants Ubisoft so they can keep making games and money. What's the problem?
Because it's his company?

He and his brothers founded Ubisoft and built it up from nothing.

It's literally a family business being swallowed by corporate interests.
 

Chev

Member
Because it's his company?

He and his brothers founded Ubisoft and built it up from nothing.

It's literally a family business being swallowed by corporate interests.


No it isn't. It would be if Ubi didn't go public in 1996 and sold a majority of their shares, but they did and so it hasn't technically been a family business for the last 20 years.

I'm actually wondering what their goal here is. My guess would be to make their fans aware of their situation... but then what. Do they hope the fans will make enough of a fuss in order to scare investors of selling or agreeing with the takeover?
Fans don't enter the equation, the message is directed at shareholders. Right now Vivendi seems to want to do this the soft way, ie at the next shareholder meeting Vivendi will request seats on the board of directors to take control without having to pay the high price of a hostile takeover. Guillemot, then, needs to convince shareholders that giving control to Vivendi will make the company less profitable so they side with him, hence the basis of all of Ubi's communication ever since gameloft was gobbled up.

Ideally this would also convince shareholders not to sell to Vivendi in the case of a hostile takeover but that'd be lot more unlikely given Vivendi's deep pockets.
 
No it isn't. It would be if Ubi didn't go public in 1996 and sold a majority of their shares, but they did and so it hasn't technically been a family business for the last 20 years.


Fans don't enter the equation, the message is directed at shareholders. Right now Vivendi seems to want to do this the soft way, ie at the next shareholder meeting Vivendi will request seats on the board of directors to take control without having to pay the high price of a hostile takeover. Guillemot, then, needs to convince shareholders that giving control to Vivendi will make the company less profitable so they side with him, hence the basis of all of Ubi's communication ever since gameloft was gobbled up.

Ideally this would also convince shareholders not to sell to Vivendi in the case of a hostile takeover but that'd be lot more unlikely given Vivendi's deep pockets.

Being publicly traded has nothing to do with whether or not its a family business as long as a Guillemot is at the helm.

Here's a list of the worlds largest family businesses, all publicly traded...

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-worlds-21-biggest-family-owned-businesses-2015-7
 

Chev

Member
Being publicly traded has nothing to do with whether or not its a family business as long as a Guillemot is at the helm.

Here's a list of the worlds largest family businesses, all publicly traded...

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-worlds-21-biggest-family-owned-businesses-2015-7

Sorry, but for example taking the case I know best from that list, Novartis, if having 3.3% shares (because that's what the Sandoz Family Foundation actually has) and a guy on the board of directors but a CEO unrelated to the family still counts as a "family business", then Ubi is in no danger of not being a family business anymore, since even with Yves Guillemot being kicked out of his CEO chair the Guillemot would still own over 20% of the shares and a spot on the board.
 

FyreWulff

Member
Why is Yves so scared of this takeover? I assume vivendi wants Ubisoft so they can keep making games and money. What's the problem?

Because Vivendi will likely just use Ubisoft to park their debt carcasses and leave it to wither.

"But FyreWulff, they wouldn't do that to a company they invested in!" the general public would say.

But.. they tried to do that to Activision. The publisher/owner of CoD, WoW, and all those games? Yep, they tried to just use Acti to shove off most of their debt to make their books look good. Didn't care about legacy, people, or anything else. It was all about looking good for the next 3 months. They were willing to shoot one of the largest successful publishers in the back just to do this.

Activision basically went into panic mode and survived it by reverse-hostile-takeovering themselves.

Ubisoft doesn't have the money Acti did to get out of this situation.



tl;dr

if Vivendi pulls this off, Ubisoft is dead within a year.
 
Sorry, but for example taking the case I know best from that list, Novartis, if having 3.3% shares (because that's what the Sandoz Family Foundation actually has) and a guy on the board of directors but a CEO unrelated to the family still counts as a "family business", then Ubi is in no danger of not being a family business anymore, since even with Yves Guillemot being kicked out of his CEO chair the Guillemot would still own over 20% of the shares and a spot on the board.
I didn't say they'd stop being a family business. I said its a family business being swallowed by corporate interests. They are losing control to a larger corporation.
 
D

Deleted member 471617

Unconfirmed Member
If Ubisoft is taken over by Vivendi, they will be dead within a year. Vivendi has no business being in the video game industry and should get the fuck out. Ubisoft is one of the very few and rare publishers that actually develop new original IP's and take risks. If Vivendi takes over Ubisoft, im going to be one pissed off Ubisoft fan.
 
D

Deleted member 80556

Unconfirmed Member
Why is Yves so scared of this takeover? I assume vivendi wants Ubisoft so they can keep making games and money. What's the problem?

There's a reason Activision looked for independence after some time. And there's a reason why after the purchase of Activision, we only got Call of Duty and the music genre essentially died in gaming.

Are you implying that in these last years Ubisoft was good? lol

I got Valiant Hearts, soooo, yes?

Just because you as an individual don't like their output doesn't mean they should be gutted.

Because Vivendi will likely just use Ubisoft to park their debt carcasses and leave it to wither.

"But FyreWulff, they wouldn't do that to a company they invested in!" the general public would say.

But.. they tried to do that to Activision. The publisher/owner of CoD, WoW, and all those games? Yep, they tried to just use Acti to shove off most of their debt to make their books look good. Didn't care about legacy, people, or anything else. It was all about looking good for the next 3 months. They were willing to shoot one of the largest successful publishers in the back just to do this.

Activision basically went into panic mode and survived it by reverse-hostile-takeovering themselves.

Ubisoft doesn't have the money Acti did to get out of this situation.

Pretty much. I hope that the Guillemots succeed with this campaign, but I'm not too optimistic.

You can bet that all their new projects, even if full promise, will be cancelled for developing Ass Creed, The Division, and other franchises that turn record profits for them.

Hope you weren't waiting for more UbiArt projects or BG&E2.
 

duckroll

Member
Family business, lol.
Taking risks, lol.

I agree that Viviendi taking over Ubisoft would be a terrible move for everyone involved and the industry would be worse off for it, but let's be real here. :p
 

DataGhost

Member
Can someone explain to me how vivendi would "park the debt" or make Ubisoft hold debt for them? lf this Vivaldi's in debt then why are they attempting to purchase more companies
 

etta

my hard graphic balls
I wonder if Assassin's Creed/Far Cry... etc will be sold and if EA/Microsoft/Sony...etc will be able/interested in buying them.
 
I wonder if Assassin's Creed/Far Cry... etc will be sold and if EA/Microsoft/Sony...etc will be able/interested in buying them.

Ain't going to happen, the reason Vivendi is interested by Ubisoft/Gameloft is because they're the only big french video game publisher with worthwhile IPs, it would be counterproductive to sell those asset since they're trying to build around them.

Taking risks, lol.

I agree that Viviendi taking over Ubisoft would be a terrible move for everyone involved and the industry would be worse off for it, but let's be real here. :p

Out of all the other big third party publishers? Damn right.
 

etta

my hard graphic balls
Ain't going to happen, the reason Vivendi is interested by Ubisoft/Gameloft is because they're the only big french video game publisher with worthwhile IPs, it would be counterproductive to sell those asset since they're trying to build around them
That's why I think Ubisoft will try to sell them before the takeover, while they still can, to save those IPs and as a fuck you to Vivendi.
 

FyreWulff

Member
Can someone explain to me how vivendi would "park the debt" or make Ubisoft hold debt for them? lf this Vivaldi's in debt then why are they attempting to purchase more companies

The short version is they just move or use other legal/accounting tricks to move the debt from one corporation to another. You can do this in various ways, like simply transferring the debt as a bought asset from one to another (you control both companies, so you can force the other to buy your own debt), another one is basically making a new corporation with the same name and sell just the IPs and other good stuff and leave the debt with the old corporation (this is what happened to GM, although that was a Chapter 11 bankruptcy structured plan - there's essentially "Old GM" that has all the debt, and "New GM" that has all the profitable assets and operations, even though GM never physically moved)

The more accounting minded members of GAF can jump in and go over deep details.
 

Diancecht

Member
I am sorry, couldn't help myself.

giphy.gif
 

oti

Banned
No it isn't. It would be if Ubi didn't go public in 1996 and sold a majority of their shares, but they did and so it hasn't technically been a family business for the last 20 years.


Fans don't enter the equation, the message is directed at shareholders. Right now Vivendi seems to want to do this the soft way, ie at the next shareholder meeting Vivendi will request seats on the board of directors to take control without having to pay the high price of a hostile takeover. Guillemot, then, needs to convince shareholders that giving control to Vivendi will make the company less profitable so they side with him, hence the basis of all of Ubi's communication ever since gameloft was gobbled up.

Ideally this would also convince shareholders not to sell to Vivendi in the case of a hostile takeover but that'd be lot more unlikely given Vivendi's deep pockets.

Shareholders follow them on twitter?
 

Kill3r7

Member
That's why I think Ubisoft will try to sell them before the takeover, while they still can, to save those IPs and as a fuck you to Vivendi.

Unfortunately they would never get approval. Vivendi is paying top dollar for those shares. So the only way to sell the IPs piecemeal is if some pays way above market value for them. Otherwise it is not worth to the shareholders and the board because the value of their shares would depreciate.
 

etta

my hard graphic balls
Unfortunately they would never get approval. Vivendi is paying top dollar for those shares. So the only way to sell the IPs piecemeal is if some pays way above market value for them. Otherwise it is not worth to the shareholders and the board because the value of their shares would depreciate.
But if Vivendi is only buying Ubisoft to offload debt wouldn't shares tank anyway?
 
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