• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

(Wedbush) November NPD Preview & OFFICIAL Prediction thread

sonycowboy

Member
Jun 8, 2004
12,214
4
0
New Jersey
November 2006 Video Game Sales Preview: Expect 12% Sales Growth

 We expect November U.S. retail video game console software sales data to be released after market close on Thursday, December 7. We forecast sales of $785 million, up 12% compared to last year.

 Though share prices for most publishers have increased over the past several months, we expect continued modest share appreciation in December, due to the relatively easy monthly sales comparison, with volatility decreasing now that the PS3 and Wii have both launched.

 Our estimate reflects $345 million in sales contribution from new platforms (PS3, Wii, 360, PSP and DS), representing year-over-year growth of $196 million, or 131%. We expect current generation software sales of $440 million, reflecting year-over-year decrease of $112 million (-20%). There may be upside to our $125 million estimate for Xbox 360 software sales, particularly if titles like Gears of War sold through more rapidly than we modeled. There may be some downside to our initial estimate of $100 million in combined software sales for the PS3 and the Wii, particularly if the “eBay effect” (hardware units sold for resale without accompanying software sales) was as pronounced as the media has speculated.

 Sales growth over the last five months has averaged a robust 16%, and we continue to believe that moderate declines in current generation software sales will persist through March, and will be more than offset by contribution from next generation software sales. PS3 and Wii software sales are expected to contribute $576 million to overall sales growth for the year, helping to drive our estimate for overall 2006 U.S. sales to be at least 4% higher than 2005 levels.

We expect NPD U.S. retail video game console software sales data for the month of November (four-week period ending November 25, 2006) to be released on Thursday, December 7, after the market close. Our forecast is based upon a combination of channel checks, company press releases and intuition, with the greatest dependence upon intuition. Our channel checks are conducted by visiting a very small slice of the over 25,000 retail stores that carry video games in the U.S. We note that for a given game, a difference of only one unit per store per week could result in a difference of 100,000 units in volume, or $3 – 6 million in retail sales for the month. Therefore, we caution investors to use our estimates as only one data point in a sea of information.

We expect November sales of $785 million (up 12% compared to November 2005’s $702 million). Our estimate reflects a decline of $112 million in current generation software sales (PS2, Xbox, GC, GBA), more than offset by an increase of $196 million in next generation software sales (PS3, Wii, 360, PSP and DS). Overall, we expect next generation software sales of $345 million and current-generation software sales of $440 million. Due to relatively light supply of next generation PS3 and Wii consoles, we do not expect next generation software sales to be greater than current generation sales in November or December.

We expect November sales to be driven by new releases Nintendo’s The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (Wii), Square Enix’s Final Fantasy XII (PS2), Microsoft’s Gears of War (360), Take-Two’s GTA: Vice City Stories (PSP), Electronic Arts’ Need for Speed Carbon (360, PS2, Xbox, PC, PSP, GBA, DS, GC, PS3, Wii), Activision’s Call of Duty 3 (PS2, 360, PS3, Xbox, Wii) and Guitar Hero II (PS2), and THQ’s WWE SmackDown vs. Raw 2007 (PS2, 360), along with a slew of launch title games for the PS3 and Wii. We note that 13 games sold over 100,000 units in October, and we expect 23 in November (compared to 21 last year).

We believe that the recent sales strength on current generation platforms will continue through at least March, given strong sell-through performance over the past five months and negative comparisons for the next five months. Consumers appear willing to purchase compelling content for current generation consoles in spite of the recent launches of the unobtainable PS3 and Wii. Through October, NPD data shows that Xbox 360 hardware sales in the U.S. were 2.9 million units, averaging approximately 250,000 units monthly for the last six months. We expect sales of 750,000 Xbox 360 hardware units in November, and between 1.5 – 2 million units in December. Sell through of Xbox 360 hardware could be higher if the supply situation for the PS3 continues to lag Sony’s promised 1.2 million units by year end, with many holiday gift givers likely substituting purchases of the 360 in place of the PS3.
 
Jun 10, 2004
1,283
25
1,420
40
sonycowboy said:
We expect sales of 750,000 Xbox 360 hardware units in November, and between 1.5 – 2 million units in December. Sell through of Xbox 360 hardware could be higher if the supply situation for the PS3 continues to lag Sony’s promised 1.2 million units by year end, with many holiday gift givers likely substituting purchases of the 360 in place of the PS3.
Epic Thread will start in 3 days ?
 

Ulairi

Banned
Jun 18, 2004
4,131
0
0
38
Didn't they say last month taht the 360 would sell over a million units in november?
 

DenogginizerOS

BenjaminBirdie's Thomas Jefferson
Mar 25, 2005
16,111
9
0
United States
Sell through of Xbox 360 hardware could be higher if the supply situation for the PS3 continues to lag Sony’s promised 1.2 million units by year end, with many holiday gift givers likely substituting purchases of the 360 in place of the PS3.
Oh no. This is like gasoline on a fire for some. There are multiple reasons why people will choose to buy an X360, and yet this one is the one they choose to end the article with. If X360 sales are better than expected, I believe the PS3's availability will have had little to do with that.
 

MrDaravon

Member
Mar 24, 2005
23,460
0
0
39
Wow at 750k 360s. I will say that I personally know at least a couple of people who picked up 360s either because of Black Friday deals, or because they couldn't get a 360.
 

PhoenixDark

Banned
Sep 25, 2005
68,162
3
0
33
OMG yes. When I saw this thread I ran and got some grape juice and a Klondite bar. This should be fun.


We expect November sales to be driven by new releases Nintendo’s The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (Wii), Square Enix’s Final Fantasy XII (PS2), Microsoft’s Gears of War (360), Take-Two’s GTA: Vice City Stories (PSP), Electronic Arts’ Need for Speed Carbon (360, PS2, Xbox, PC, PSP, GBA, DS, GC, PS3, Wii), Activision’s Call of Duty 3 (PS2, 360, PS3, Xbox, Wii) and Guitar Hero II (PS2), and THQ’s WWE SmackDown vs. Raw 2007 (PS2, 360), along with a slew of launch title games for the PS3 and Wii. We note that 13 games sold over 100,000 units in October, and we expect 23 in November (compared to 21 last year).
Oh snaps. I bet Brain Age is going to be a huge seller for November and December
 

Elios83

Member
Jun 30, 2004
14,605
182
1,650
No official prediction on PS3?

Anyway my predictions:

Xbox360 500k
Wii 550K
PS3 250k
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Jul 6, 2005
91,412
0
0
32
borghe said:
750K 360's?

Is anyone else buying this or are they off their rockers? really curious.
Weren't they expecting a million? Edit: I guess they weren't.
 

led4lyfe

Member
Nov 15, 2006
383
44
1,100
750K seems sorta unrealistic considering the current rate it's been selling. We already know the Wii sold around 400k, right?
 

Tiktaalik

Member
Aug 6, 2004
12,871
0
1,430
So I can stop continuously hitting refresh on GAF until the 7th. Good to know.

Time to go play outside.
 

hadareud

The Translator
Oct 18, 2004
22,703
1
1,625
England
Ulairi said:
Didn't they say last month taht the 360 would sell over a million units in november?
no, at least I don't think so.

edit:
didn't he say 2 million for nov and dec combined last month?
 

jarrod

Banned
Jun 6, 2004
25,732
1
0
360: 675k
PS2: 625k
Wii: 525k
PS3: 200k

DS: 825k
GBA: 450k
PSP: 275k

edit~ hmm... I think I was a little too high with the expectations. fxt.
 

NomarTyme

Member
Jul 29, 2006
54,002
0
0
DS : 875,000
PSP: 380,000
GBA: 450,000
PS2: 480,00
Wii: 500,000
PS3: 200,000
X360: 550,000
Xbx: 10k
GC: 30k
 

Frankfurter

Member
Jul 18, 2005
6,524
0
0
36
sonycowboy said:
Electronic Arts’ Need for Speed Carbon (360, PS2, Xbox, PC, PSP, GBA, DS, GC, PS3, Wii)
Is that some kind of new record? :lol Is NFS Carbon also available for cellphones? :D
 

Razoric

Banned
Jun 8, 2004
7,932
1
0
41
www.razoric.com
Wii sold 600k for all of NA and I believe a bit of that was outside the NPD for Nov right? I'm guessing 450k or a bit lower for actual U.S. NPD sales.
 

borghe

Loves the Greater Toronto Area
Jun 18, 2004
23,394
3
1,575
www.borgh.us
well, if 750K turns out to be true, color me impressed. a 3x sales spike for the system would be pretty incredible. guess we'll find out in just three short days.
 

DenogginizerOS

BenjaminBirdie's Thomas Jefferson
Mar 25, 2005
16,111
9
0
United States
I predict the X360 will just make 500K
Wii will almost make 450K
PS3 will be close to 250K

DSL will curb stomp the PSP in system sales and software. The PS2 will be close to 350K. And the top selling console game will be Gears of War, edging out FFXII.
 

RamzaIsCool

The Amiga Brotherhood
Jan 2, 2006
3,355
0
0
38
360: 660k
PS2: 475k
Wii: 580k
PS3: 250k
DS: 700k
GBA: 395k
PSP: 470k


I predict good sales across the board.....everybody wins!!!
 

jwj442

Member
Nov 11, 2005
970
8
1,265
Is this preview based on data they've already collected, or educated guesswork?
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Jul 6, 2005
91,412
0
0
32
PS2: 500k
360: 500k
PS3: 200k
Wii: 600k
DS: 800k
PSP: 300k
GBA: 600k
XBOX: 4k
GCN: 15k
 

hadareud

The Translator
Oct 18, 2004
22,703
1
1,625
England
ok, let's predict:

360 615,000
Wii 585,000
PS2 450,000
PS3 275,000
DS 685,000
GBA 189,000
PSP 185,000
GC 41,000
Xbox 3,500
 
Apr 17, 2005
6,476
0
1,490
Predictions
NDS - 950k
WII - 550k
PS2 - 525k
360 - 500k
GBA - 450k
PSP - 360k
PS3 - 175k
GCN - 60k
XBX - 3k

This is going to be a difficult one to win...

small edit: changed PS3...typo!
 

PhoenixDark

Banned
Sep 25, 2005
68,162
3
0
33
Wii: 635,000
Xbox 360: 580,000
PS3: 215,000
PS2: 620,000

DS: 600,000
PSP: 300,000

Gears of War: 1.2 million
Zelda: 610,000
FFXII: 550,000
Call of Duty 3 (all): 700,000
Resistance: 170,000
Guitar Hero II: 500,000
Brain Age: 300,000
Red Steel: 200,000
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
Sep 9, 2006
27,409
2
0
mood said:
For a 4 week period I dont think 360 will reach 700+k.

360 510k
PS3 285k
Wii 550k
PS2 600k
DS 400k
PSP 270k


ds only 400K ? come on man....
 

Rhindle

Member
Jun 8, 2004
5,299
1
0
We expect sales of 750,000 Xbox 360 hardware units in November, and between 1.5 – 2 million units in December. Sell through of Xbox 360 hardware could be higher if the supply situation for the PS3 continues to lag Sony’s promised 1.2 million units by year end, with many holiday gift givers likely substituting purchases of the 360 in place of the PS3.
Oh dear.
 

Razoric

Banned
Jun 8, 2004
7,932
1
0
41
www.razoric.com
Provider said:
Why is everybody going so low on the wii number when we have an official press release with 600,000 units sold in the first 8 days...
600k was for ALL of North America (ie Canada and the US) and IIRC the NPD stops tracking for Nov at around that same time.

So it will be around 450k IMO.
 

Avutta1978

Member
Oct 26, 2005
1,059
0
0
PhoenixDark said:
Wii: 635,000
Xbox 360: 580,000
PS3: 215,000
PS2: 620,000

DS: 600,000
PSP: 300,000

Gears of War: 1.2 million
Zelda: 610,000
FFXII: 550,000
Call of Duty 3 (all): 700,000
Resistance: 170,000
Guitar Hero II: 500,000
Brain Age: 300,000
Red Steel: 200,000
I agree withthis except Resistance will be around 150,000
 

hadareud

The Translator
Oct 18, 2004
22,703
1
1,625
England
Provider said:
Why is everybody going so low on the wii number when we have an official press release with 600,000 units sold in the first 8 days...
Because not all of these days were in november npd

Rhindle said:
:lol

my thoughts exactly. Thursday night should be fun (most likely not for xbox fans though. just like most months)
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
Sep 9, 2006
27,409
2
0
360 400K
Wii 600K
PS2 400K
PS3 250K
DS 1000K
GBA 250K
PSP 250K
GC 50K
Xbox 3k
 

Arsenal

Member
May 17, 2006
1,028
0
0
borghe said:
750K 360's?

Is anyone else buying this or are they off their rockers? really curious.
Well, the analysts seem to overestimate 360 demand every single month, I doubt it will be much different this month. Especially since they imply that they think it could he higher than that based on the substitution nonsense.

I believe 750k would be about par with the Xbox's best year, which the 360 is tracking fairly close to. It is definitely a bit of a stretch though, especially considering the $400 price tag.
 

Dalauz

Member
Jul 25, 2006
2,649
1
1,155
40
Argentina
PS2: 630k
360: 450k
PS3: 210k
Wii: 600k
NDS: 850k
PSP: 310k
GBA: 410k

XBX 10k
NGC 60k


/edit: XBX-NGC numbers
 

hyp

Member
Jul 15, 2004
5,574
1
1,310
honolulu
Wario64 said:
Uh oh, I dont see Resistance listed
which is a shame because it's a really good game. sucks that the PS3 are numbers are so low that people can't even try the game out.
 
Jun 10, 2004
1,283
25
1,420
40
Predictions
NDS - 790k
WII - 430k
PS2 - 440k
360 - 550k
GBA - 350k
PSP - 300k
PS3 - 160k
GCN - 30k
XBX - 1k
 

Chibbi Brady

Member
Jun 7, 2004
1,236
0
0
DS: 850k
PS2: 600k
Wii: 510k
GBA: 500k
360: 480k
PSP: 275K
PS3: 215k
GC: 50k
Xbox: 8k


Tough one to predict this month, had a look back at last years numbers but if I remember right there were PS2 shortages that caused a bit of a dip there.