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[meltpotato]

2 games for every 1 system. The PS3 is damn expensive. And I will buy one.

600+70+70+50= 790(7%)= 845.30$
500+70+70+50= 690(7%)= 738.30$


i added in a controller for reality and used 7% as sales taxes because that seems pretty average across the US.

Im looking at the launch line-up now and saying wtf?! At PS2 launch I got a controller, TTT, Fantavision, and Armored Core. all quality games and, although i dont remember exactly how much that was, even with the more intimidating Yen conversion at that time I still payed much less than 845$ I really can't see what makes the thing worth getting in November. (or for the next 10 months for that matter)

 

[sonycowboy]

So they need to nearly double output from now to hit that goal of 10m by the time the PS3 hits. Dunno. On a related note, will Sony really ramp that fast? I doubt it.

Microsoft claimed at E3 that they will have 5M units by the end of May IIRC. So, I'd say they would be likely to hit 6M in shipments. Of course, there will likely be ~2M sold in the US, 100k (whatever) in Japan, and << 2M in Europe/Aus.

They're building up for the fall and Madden, likely.

 

[Gahiggidy]

I belive that Nintendo will ship alot earlier than people think (November), and end up putting alot of Wii into retail chains.

Wild Guess:

JPN: Launch Mid September w/300k Wii. End up supplying an additional 1.1 Million Wii for a total of 1.4M Wii.

USA/CA: Launch Late October w/600k Wii. End up supplying an additional 1.4 Million Wii for a total of 2M Wii.

EUR: Luanch in Early December w/500k Wii. End up supplying an additional 200k Wii for a toal of 700k Wii.

Other: 100k Wii.


Total: 4.2M Wii worldwide.

 

[Y2Kev]

600+70+70+50= 790(7%)= 845.30$
500+70+70+50= 690(7%)= 738.30$


i added in a controller for reality and used 7% as sales taxes because that seems pretty average across the US.

Im looking at the launch line-up now and saying wtf?! At PS2 launch I got a controller, TTT, Fantavision, and Armored Core. all quality games and, although i dont remember exactly how much that was, even with the more intimidating Yen conversion at that time I still payed much less than 845$ I really can't see what makes the thing worth getting in November. (or for the next 10 months for that matter)

738 is cheap if you consider the bundle I paid for Xbox 360.

 

[Rocked]

I really think the Wii will do better in Europe and Japan than America. The fact that NOA can't even get people to move on from the GBA to the DS like the rest of the world has says it all. :-/

 

[RaijinFY]

I really think the Wii will do better in Europe and Japan than America. The fact that NOA can't even get people to move on from the GBA to the DS like the rest of the world has says it all. :-/

Yeah I expect the GC eating some sales of the Wii in America.

 

[CassidyIzABeast]

My Predictions:


Sony PS3: As many as they can ship to NA. I would expect about 800K by the end of '06. (Fuck, do you really think they can ship 2 mil to NA in '06? HAHAHAHHAHAAHAHAHHAHHAAAAA)

Nintendo Wii: As many as they can ship to NA. I would expect about 1 million. Mainly due to the ease of manufacturing something so technically archaic. Would be more but Japan will suck them down like Sake for 2 bucks a bottle, outshipping Sony by a mile in the motherland.

Xbox 360: From Oct 1-End Dec....4 million units. Easy.

your avatar gave no hint of who you would favor in sales

 

[Core407]

Wii and PS3 will sell as many they can ship for the first few months. It is always that way.

Sadly.

 

[meltpotato]

Sadly.

meh. not really. if software makers didnt have that initial install-base to count on, then you would see software for next gen ramp up alot slower.

 

[DrLazy]

Wii and PS3 will sell as many they can ship for the first few months. It is always that way.

WRONG.

That's what people said about PSP in the U.S. It didnt' happen. Also when the Xbox launched it didn't have major shortages, and that actually helped propell it forever ahead of the Gamecube in the U.S.

 

[Elios83]

WRONG.

That's what people said about PSP in the U.S. It didnt' happen. Also when the Xbox launched it didn't have major shortages, and that actually helped propell it forever ahead of the Gamecube in the U.S.

PSP was a new console in a new market for Sony with 1 million units available immediatly.
PS3 is the successor to the most successful console ever with more limited shipments.
There's no comparison.

 

[Timedog]

I think those numbers look about right IF Gears of War is awesome and is marketed a TON. If not I see MS at 2 mil flat. MS needs Gears of War to be awesome this holiday, and Halo3 the next in order to take or tie for first in NA.

 

[Y2Kev]

PSP was a new console in a new market for Sony with 1 million units available immediatly.
PS3 is the successor to the most successful console ever with more limited shipments.
There's no comparison.

Plus it was a March launch, not a week-before-Christmas season release.

 

[DrLazy]

PSP was a new console in a new market for Sony with 1 million units available immediatly.
PS3 is the successor to the most successful console ever with more limited shipments.
There's no comparison.

No comparison? Wrong again. The PSP was a technoligically advanced videogame system made by a Japanese company called Sony. Just as people were not use to spending $250 on a handheld system they similarly may not be not prepared for spening $500 (or $600) on a console. That's comparison enough. This idea that their brand name will sell the system alone is idiotic. Why didn't all those people buy a PSP? That has the playstation brand name, right? The PS3 could have as many as 2 million consoles available at launch. I'd wager PS3 won't completly sell out this Christmas, if those numbers hold up.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Microsoft claimed at E3 that they will have 5M units by the end of May IIRC. So, I'd say they would be likely to hit 6M in shipments. Of course, there will likely be ~2M sold in the US, 100k (whatever) in Japan, and << 2M in Europe/Aus.

They're building up for the fall and Madden, likely.

Where did you hear the 5m by May figure? All I found was Peter Moore reiterating the "at least 5m" by June target. There was a flurry of coverage though and I could have missed it. They definately need to fill the channel for the fall and holidays.

 

[Elios83]

No comparison? Wrong again. The PSP was a technoligically advanced videogame system made by a Japanese company called Sony. Just as people were not use to spending $250 on a handheld system they similarly may not be not prepared for a $500 (or $600) system. That's comparison enough. This idea that their brand name will sell the system alone is idiotic. Why didn't they buy a PSP? That has the playstation brand name, right? The PS3 could have as many as 2 million consoles available at launch. I'd wager PS3 won't completly sell out this Christmas, if those numbers hold up.

Yeah keep dreaming.
And PSP sold 600k units in a week in USA,a record.You make it sound like a flop :lol :lol
It didn't sold out because Sony shipped really a lot of consoles,1 million units at launch was a record shipment.
People at launch don't buy it for the name but because they know they'll get certain things they want.

 

[Diablos]

I wonder if it'll look like France at the PS2's launch?

My god.

 

[DrLazy]

Yeah keep dreaming.
And PSP sold 600k units in a week in USA,a record.You make it sound like a flop :lol :lol
It didn't sold out because Sony shipped really a lot of consoles,1 million units at launch was a record shipment.
People at launch don't buy it for the name but because they know they'll get certain things they want.

Your right, the PSP launch was a success. I'm just saying the idea that they'll sell as many as they can ship just isn't true. Look back at old pre-PSP lauch talk and you'll see similar predictions. The only time there is guarenteed sell out is with massive shortages like the first PS2 and Xbox 360. Gamecube was in between. PSP and Xbox had plenty of supply.

 

[Jokeropia]

PS3 is the successor to the most successful console ever

Sorry to nitpick (and not that it really affects what you're saying) but original Gameboy sold more.

 

[damisa]

I bet last year, no one would have predicted that the 360 and also possibly the wii would both outsell the PS3 in holiday 2006.

 

[SolidSnakex]

Your right, the PSP launch was a success. I'm just saying the idea that they'll sell as many as they can ship just isn't true. Look back at old pre-PSP lauch talk and you'll see similar predictions. The only time there is guarenteed sell out is with massive shortages like the first PS2 and Xbox 360. Gamecube was in between. PSP and Xbox had plenty of supply.

There is going to be a huge shortage with the PS3, Sony's already confirmed that with the amount they'll be shipping.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Sorry to nitpick (and not that it really affects what you're saying) but original Gameboy sold more.

Not to nitpick, but techinically you have to add in the Gameboy Color to get there, IIRC.

 

[Fuzzy]

Sorry to nitpick (and not that it really affects what you're saying) but original Gameboy sold more.

Not unless you combine it with the GBC. Original GB is only about 71M WW while the GBC was about 47M WW (both numbers are the best estimates for each since Nintendo combines them).

 

[Elios83]

Your right, the PSP launch was a success. I'm just saying the idea that they'll sell as many as they can ship just isn't true. Look back at old pre-PSP lauch talk and you'll see similar predictions. The only time there is guarenteed sell out is with massive shortages like the first PS2 and Xbox 360. Gamecube was in between. PSP and Xbox had plenty of supply.

I think that those numbers for PS3 mean massive shortages.With 2 million units you don't even cover hardcore gamers and all the AV fans who want a Blu Ray reader.
And again you're comparing the successor of a 100+ million units market leading console which will get a marketing push this holyday season like never seen before with platforms which clearly don't have the same success.
Of course it's impossible that if they ship 2 million units to the US you'll get a rounded 2 million total in the NPD numbers at the end of December,it's impossibile to track all the consoles,I hope we agree on this

 

[sonycowboy]

Not that I think Sony can come close to hitting 2M in the US in 2006, but how freaky would this be.

3-3.5M units shipped 2006 for Sony. (for argument's sake)

2M US
750k Europe
750k Japan

1) 360 is struggling in Europe and dead in Japan, not close to the same level of competition as in the US.

2) Wii would fly in Japan, but a Wii sale would not hurt a PS3 sale, IMO. They are complementary products, or at least, not NEARLY as exclusive as PS3 vs 360. PS3 could pump more in in Q2

3) If Sony hits 2M in the US, they would have sold in 1 1/2 months, what will have taken 7 1/2 months for the 360 in the US.

I said back in December that the shortage could have a long term impact on the 360, not so much in that they wouldn't recover, but insofar as they would have wasted much of their year head start. I still think pricing in 2007 and beyond will be a monster problem for Sony.

 

[jarrod]

I'd expect JP launch allocations to match what NA gets, despite Stringer. I can't imagine Sony's big JP partners (Konami, Namco Bandai, Square Enix, SEGA, Capcom) responding too kindly to an undershipped national platform while America gets a healthier supply, especially as PS2/PSP flounder and Nintendo's hitting record highs with their new approach. Microsoft might be superficially the biggest threat, but I'd say Japan's the region where PlayStation's poised to take the largest potential fall and Japan's vital to the success of PlayStation as a whole.... if they lose Japan, they'll lose what makes "PlayStation" any different from "Xbox".

 

[Elios83]

I bet last year, no one would have predicted that the 360 and also possibly the wii would both outsell the PS3 in holiday 2006.

Uh? How could you say that if people didn't even know that Sony would launch this holyday season and a launch is always shipment restricted?
If you put things in that way I could say that last year also no one would have predicted that Microsoft would have a 1,5 million units installed base in USA in May 2006,with people talking about 2 million units just in US for the 2005 holyday season.
And people predicted that PSP would crash DS easily in Japan while having difficulties in the western markets where hanheld gaming is associated more with kid (99$) cheap gaming:lol
And if I were in you I would calm down with the multi million predictions on Xbox360 sales this holyday season because at the moment actual sales don't justify that optimism and Xbox360 plays on two makets out of three.At least wait to see how well the console performs with shipment problems over.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Not that I think Sony can come close to hitting 2M in the US in 2006, but how freaky would this be.

3-3.5M units shipped 2006 for Sony. (for argument's sake)

2M US
750k Europe
750k Japan

1) 360 is struggling in Europe and dead in Japan, not close to the same level of competition as in the US.

2) Wii would fly in Japan, but a Wii sale would not hurt a PS3 sale, IMO. They are complementary products, or at least, not NEARLY as exclusive as PS3 vs 360. PS3 could pump more in in Q2

3) If Sony hits 2M in the US, they would have sold in 1 1/2 months, what will have taken 7 1/2 months for the 360 in the US.

I said back in December that the shortage could have a long term impact on the 360, not so much in that they wouldn't recover, but insofar as they would have wasted much of their year head start. I still think pricing in 2007 and beyond will be a monster problem for Sony.

There's no doubt that the 360 launch supply was a clusterfuck. But put that in the full context of shipping plans for the rest of the year. How many MS will be able to ship/sell during the holidays this year? Let's say they do ship 10m by the time the PS3 hits, and another 1.5m after. That's 11.5m vs. 3.5m in your scenario; an 8m system lead. They may have blown the launch, but the full-year picture would be pretty good.

 

[sonycowboy]

I'd expect JP launch allocations to match what NA gets, despite Stringer. I can't imagine Sony's big JP partners (Konami, Namco Bandai, Square Enix, SEGA, Capcom) responding too kindly to an undershipped national platform while America gets a healthier supply, especially as PS2/PSP flounder and Nintendo's hitting record highs with their new approach. Microsoft might be superficially the biggest threat, but I'd say Japan's the region where PlayStation's poised to take the largest potential fall and Japan's vital to the success of PlayStation as a whole.... if they lose Japan, they'll lose what makes "PlayStation" any different from "Xbox".

I don't see that as a huge issue.

1) Dev's aren't going to leave the PS3 for the Wii because they get short shipped at launch. They're too different markets. As I said, I don't think that the intersection will mean +1 for Nintendo is equal to -1 for Sony.

2) Japan is now < 20% of the overall world market.

 

[Elios83]

There's no doubt that the 360 launch supply was a clusterfuck. But put that in the full context of shipping plans for the rest of the year. How many MS will be able to ship/sell during the holidays this year? Let's say they do ship 10m by the time the PS3 hits, and another 1.5m after. That's 11.5m vs. 3.5m in your scenario; an 8m system lead. They may have blown the launch, but the full-year picture would be pretty good.

Comparison must be sold to sold.
Otherwise PSP has sold more than DS worldwide.

 

[damisa]

Uh? How could you say that if people didn't even know that Sony would launch this holyday season and a launch is always shipment restricted?
If you put things in that way I could say that last year also no one would have predicted that Microsoft would have a 1,5 million units installed base in USA in May 2006,with people talking about 2 million units just in US for the 2005 holyday season.
And people predicted that PSP would crash DS easily in Japan while having difficulties in the western markets where hanheld gaming is associated more with kid (99$) cheap gaming:lol
And if I were in you I would calm down with the multi million predictions on Xbox360 sales this holyday season because at the moment actual sales don't justify that optimism and Xbox360 plays on two makets out of three.At least wait to see how well the console performs with shipment problems over.

Last year everyone thought the PS3 would launch in the US in spring or summer. Sony's delay of 6+ months is much worse than 360 shortages. If the 360 had no shortage problems and the PS3 launched in spring, there's no way the 360 would have had more than a 4 million lead. Now it'll have a much larger one.

As for 360 sales, the original xbox would sell millions over the holidays with much tougher competition. A PS3 with severe shortages, limited launch titles, and a higher price (much higher factoring in bundles) is no comparison to a much cheaper PS2 with a huge console lead and titles like MGS2 and FFX already out.

 

[Oblivion]

but I'd say Japan's the region where PlayStation's poised to take the largest potential fall and Japan's vital to the success of PlayStation as a whole.... if they lose Japan, they'll lose what makes "PlayStation" any different from "Xbox".

I dunno if that's true anymore. It might have been in the PS1 days, but judging by the top 30 franchises this gen:

1.Mario
2.MAdden
3.Grand Theft Auto
4. Star Wars
5. Tony Hawk
6. Need for Speed
7. Pokemon
8. Halo
9.Sonic
10.Spiderman
11.DragonBall Z
12. NBA Live
13.Spongebob
14. LOTR
15. WWE
16. James Bond
17. NCAA Football
18. Medal of Honor
19. Harry Potter
20.Yu-gi-oh
21. Crash Bandicoot
22. Final Fantasy
23. Tiger Woods
24. Simpsons
25. Sims
26.Gran Turismo
27. Namco Musuem
28. Zelda
29. SOCOM
30. NFL 2k

Only 7 of them are from Japanese publishers (3 alone from Nintendo).

 

[sonycowboy]

Last year everyone thought the PS3 would launch in the US in spring or summer. Sony's delay of 6+ months is much worse than 360 shortages. If the 360 had no shortage problems and the PS3 launched in spring, there's no way the 360 would have had more than a 4 million lead. Now it'll have a much larger one.

As for 360 sales, the original xbox would well millions over the holidays with much tougher competition. A PS3 with severe shortages, limited launch titles, and a higher price (much higher factoring in bundles) is no comparison to a much cheaper PS2 with a huge console lead and titles like MGS2 and FFX already out.

Huh? Other than the fact that I can't understand the point you were trying to make (grammar),

Are you saying the PS2 was much cheaper than the Xbox when the Xbox launched??

 

[GhaleonEB]

Comparison must be sold to sold.
Otherwise PSP has sold more than DS worldwide.

Well all we have are shipment forecasts to go with, until the dust settles. And even then, for accurate WW figures we have to use the shipped figures from the respective companies.

 

[jarrod]

I don't see that as a huge issue.

1) Dev's aren't going to leave the PS3 for the Wii because they get short shipped at launch. They're too different markets. As I said, I don't think that the intersection will mean +1 for Nintendo is equal to -1 for Sony.

Same could be said for DS/PSP, but look how that turned out.

Developers only have so much in terms of resources to spend... if Wii presents a more attractive alternative, it will affect PS3 support to some degree. Despite the declining console market, Japanese publishers still look at the national market first and foremost. Any setbacks in Japan will hurt Sony (and thus, help Microsoft) the world over...

2) Japan is now < 20% of the overall world market.

The "PlayStation market" maybe, the "Xbox market" certainly but the market at large? Japan moved just as much hardware overall as the US last month.

 

[damisa]

Huh? Other than the fact that I can't understand the point you were trying to make (grammar),

Are you saying the PS2 was much cheaper than the Xbox when the Xbox launched??

I'm talking about PS2 versus PS3. The PS3 will have a lot of problems the PS2 never had versus xbox.
1. More expensive versus the 360
2. No huge lead in software library. Games like MGS2, grand turismo, FFX were already out on Ps2 or coming out at the same time.
3. No huge lead in hardware units sold.
4. Severe shortages likely
5. Forced bundles when there's competition with ample non-bundled supply.

It's the opposite in fact. 360 will have a larger userbase and software library this holiday. 360 will have have second gen titles like gears of war to promote. Madden will be an automatic timed exclusive. Several PS3 games delayed past launch already (like heavenly sword).

 

[Elios83]

Well all we have are shipment forecasts to go with, until the dust settles. And even then, for accurate WW figures we have to use the shipped figures from the respective companies.

That is true only for Europe as we don't have a market research company which tracks sold numbers precisely but in USA we have NPD and in Japan we have Media Create.
Microsoft wants to saturate the reatail channels this year if they can deliver on their promised shipments,that's ok, eventually they will regret later if their actual sales don't keep up with their shipments (as happened to Sony with PSP) but it would be stupid to say that a company has a lead on shipment numbers,don't you think?
What really matters is a sold to sold comparison and we can do that with sufficient precision on the US and Japansese market.

 

[Deku]

If Sony can ship and sell (well shipped is most likely sold in this case) 2 million units before the winter Solstice (dec 21?) which would give them a little over 1 month to do that, then my hats off to them.

But I'm skeptical they can ship that many units. And even if they do, this may actually be a bad PR move for them if their shipped inventory don't sell out. Anyone remember their bold PSP launch predicitons which they missed by a mile? Granted this isn't Sony PR but anaysts making educated guesses.

 

[Fishie flop oog]

Sony actually has factories. Microsoft does not. And Sony could potentially cut back PS2/PSP production to handle ~some PS3 components, and given the slowdown in those two products, it might not actually be so crazy.

Enlighten us oh wise one, which of Sony's factories will be making the parts and doing the assembly of the PS3.

 

[Frankfurter]

Europe is Sony's fucking bitch. People really do underestimate the stupidity of Europe games sales wise.

NEW. Super Mario Bros. won't even get into the top 20, and I'm not even joking.

Huh? NSMB will launch in the top 10 (and most likely have very good legs) in every major european market.

 

[Version 3.0]

I dunno if that's true anymore. It might have been in the PS1 days, but judging by the top 30 franchises this gen:

1.Mario
2.MAdden
3.Grand Theft Auto
4. Star Wars
5. Tony Hawk
6. Need for Speed
7. Pokemon
8. Halo
9.Sonic
10.Spiderman
11.DragonBall Z
12. NBA Live
13.Spongebob
14. LOTR
15. WWE
16. James Bond
17. NCAA Football
18. Medal of Honor
19. Harry Potter
20.Yu-gi-oh
21. Crash Bandicoot
22. Final Fantasy
23. Tiger Woods
24. Simpsons
25. Sims
26.Gran Turismo
27. Namco Musuem
28. Zelda
29. SOCOM
30. NFL 2k

Only 7 of them are from Japanese publishers (3 alone from Nintendo).

Where are these from, and are you sure these are global figures? They look like US figures to me.

 

[Oblivion]

Where are these from, and are you sure these are global figures? They look like US figures to me.

They're from one of SC's threads. And you're right, they are U.S. sales only. NPD numbers.

 

[Frankfurter]

Where are these from, and are you sure these are global figures? They look like US figures to me.

Afair these are from Sonycowboy. Oblivion wanted to show that japanese franchises aren't that important for the american market.

Edit: Powned

 

[fortified_concept]

2 millions is USA? Sony you bastards you're gonna screw Europe again, aren't you? ASSHOLES

WRONG.

That's what people said about PSP in the U.S. It didnt' happen. Also when the Xbox launched it didn't have major shortages, and that actually helped propell it forever ahead of the Gamecube in the U.S.

Haha is this guy serious?

 

[Konnjuta]

Here you go. PS2 launch in France. And yes, it's insane.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=VgZl0zlka08&search=ps2 france

Holy fuck? LOLOLOLOL WTF?
Thats just fucking INSANE
:lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

 

[Mrbob]

Not that I think Sony can come close to hitting 2M in the US in 2006, but how freaky would this be.

3-3.5M units shipped 2006 for Sony. (for argument's sake)

2M US
750k Europe
750k Japan

1) 360 is struggling in Europe and dead in Japan, not close to the same level of competition as in the US.

2) Wii would fly in Japan, but a Wii sale would not hurt a PS3 sale, IMO. They are complementary products, or at least, not NEARLY as exclusive as PS3 vs 360. PS3 could pump more in in Q2

3) If Sony hits 2M in the US, they would have sold in 1 1/2 months, what will have taken 7 1/2 months for the 360 in the US.

I said back in December that the shortage could have a long term impact on the 360, not so much in that they wouldn't recover, but insofar as they would have wasted much of their year head start. I still think pricing in 2007 and beyond will be a monster problem for Sony.

Hey you are jumping onto *my* prediction bandwagon now, get your own ideas. This is why I think MS needs to slash the price of the 360 by 100 dollars this November. Pump out as many sales as you can to counter attack the PS3 onslaught.

 

[Sysgen]

Hey you are jumping onto *my* prediction bandwagon now, get your own ideas. This is why I think MS needs to slash the price of the 360 by 100 dollars this November. Pump out as many sales as you can to counter attack the PS3 onslaught.

Your 100% right though I would drop the price on the core and be competitive with Nintendo at the same time. The premium is fine where it is.

 

[littlewig]

Not only do I think Sony won't sell that many, I don't believe they'll be able to produce that many.

I'm looking at another delay.

 

[Wollan]

Here you go. PS2 launch in France. And yes, it's insane.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=VgZl0zlka08&search=ps2 france

:lol

Can't wait for november.

 

[littlewig]

:lol

Can't wait for november.

Spoiler