Impeccable
Member
My neighbour is stockpiling wood for the impending economy crash China is going to cause in September.
Hi neighbour.
Hi neighbour.
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Welcome ..... our Chinese overlords
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Well, if not true democracy, then enough to loosen certain social and economic restrictions they have.
I'd say the reason the Chinese republic of the early 20th century failed had more to do with the multiple foreign and internal forces seeking its destruction as well as the economical environment than any lack of desire for democracy.
However, you are right in that the history of China has required authoritarian rule. Even from the founding.
IISANDERII
Member
Yeah but perhaps so much of their gains are attributed to them being unconcerned with environmental considerations.
Prophet Steve
Member
I wouldn't do that anywhere near Gandhi, that warmongering bastard.
You can plug in your own guesses for growth, inflation and change in exchange rate here and it will calculate when the Chinese economy will pass the US economy. The current estimate is 2021.
www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2014/08/chinese-and-american-gdp-forecasts
www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2014/08/chinese-and-american-gdp-forecasts
ThankYouDaletech
Banned
Not caring about anything ever seems to be part of the culture, don't know how long that can work.
gamechanger87
Member
Its called government funding of infrastructure investment. China is currently sitting on a real estate bubble. They continue to build stuff because they need to say that the GDP is growing greater than 7%. The country is having immense difficulties trying to convert to a modern consumption economy, thus the government keeps allowing cities to be built and infrastructure investments to keep the populace happy. They are now allowing people whom have just seen a computer invest in the stock market.
China is sitting on a real estate and an equity bubble the likes the world has never seen. Its currently a house of cards and the government is trying to figure out a way to keep it from imploding.
Chinese stocks are up 100% since November. There is a ton of off-book debt that no one is speaking of.
China looks really good on paper because the only information available is what the government allows. They restrict information when it doesn't show what they want to. To give you another example of how crazy this bubble is becoming and how the government is trying to cover it up. After reporting the number of retail stock accounts opened each week for nine years, the China Securities Depository & Clearing (CDSC) Corp has decided to stop reporting the results. They don't provide a reason, but its because the number of new accounts opening up is absurd.
HappyBivouac
Member
You've only been in China for a month. Haven't experienced the underbelly yet.
I love it here, but it's not all happy progress, development (which, by the way, is a massive bubble) and fields of trees.
I love it here, but it's not all happy progress, development (which, by the way, is a massive bubble) and fields of trees.
I just learned that my hometown (in the South) has become one of the top ten ghost cities in China. I can see new residential buildings that are just mostly vacant, and new ones are still being built. Real estate prices are stagnant for a while, while prices in the largest cities are still going up. I live in Shanghai now because there is no jobs for me back in my hometown.
My friends and colleagues here will say the government can prevent all that bursting. There has been a bubble for quite a while and it did not implode... yet.
Let us wait and see what happens next. If that happens it will be an ugly sight. Hopefully I can still earn my daily bread when that day finally comes
I dealt with a business owner from China, and have to say I was impressed by his resource management and work ethic. He got rich in China off warehousing of some kind, came over here and started two companies: one for installing custom equipment in cars, and another home systems of all kinds (entertainment, alarms, cameras, etc). Neither made a ton of money, but via a contract with two hotels and a modest income from both, he was really well off. Hard-nosed bastard though, the only person to ever fire me (I was in college and juggling classes and two jobs, I just couldn't keep up with his demand).
gamechanger87
Member
I just learned that my hometown (in the South) has become one of the top ten ghost cities in China. I can see new residential buildings that are just mostly vacant, and new ones are still being built. Real estate prices are stagnant for a while, while prices in the largest cities are still going up. I live in Shanghai now because there is no jobs for me back in my hometown.
My friends and colleagues here will say the government can prevent all that bursting. There has been a bubble for quite a while and it did not implode... yet.
Let us wait and see what happens next. If that happens it will be an ugly sight. Hopefully I can still earn my daily bread when that day finally comes
I think the key thing is that yes the government can try and contain the bubble. The only way to do that is to brute force it and take the heat from slowing down GDP growth. However, showing that the countries growth is slowing will be percieved poorly even though 3% smart and modern growth is better than 7% wasted investment.
The apartments in ghost cities are being bought by the populace as a second place that they hope they can flip in the future.
One of the other interesting concepts out there is that as the middle class in China continues to expand and wages move up, China become less and less of an attractive location for cheap labor. This will reduce the export market and force the country to look for internal consumption. I don't think they are ready for that.
For example, Chinese steel mills which killed the US ones.:
Not just for cheap labor, also for (somewhat) skilled labor. I can only speak for my own industry but Gameloft closed up shop in China and moved development to Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries a few years ago. Others moved to more inland locations like Xi'an, Wuhan or Chengdu.
Although a lot of us are still quite confident that our work ethics and skills are unmatched compared to South/Southeast Asians. More skilled development teams like those in Tencent are quite highly paid but they would routinely work overtime like 7/12...
DeathoftheEndless
Crashing this plane... with no survivors!
Is it unmatched though?
1st Course
Member
That's just one reason. The primary reason why the CCP continue to allow such practices, keep spending billions upon billions defending the yuan, keep investing in multiple foreign countries, opening more to foreigners etc is to prevent something they've been fearing ever since the 80/90s: Unemployment. The CCP worst nightmare.
Honestly there's lots of good justifications for the way the CCP is handling things. I can't stress enough how important it is for Chinese government to avoid unemployment at all costs. They've been trying their hardest to prevent unemployment (one child policy etc) but for a country as big as China it only inevitable that a large sum of the population will find themselves without jobs at some point.
darkhunger
Member
It's already happening though. Domestic consumption is on a rapid rise with respect to GDP and past the 50% mark last year. When you consider the rate of urbanization and the growing size of the middle class (last reported to be 500 million) its obviously an economy in transition from exported-driven to consumption-driven. As people's spending power increase the consumption will only increase. It's inevitable, especially since the current government made that one of their top priorities.
The idea that China's exports decline will lead to a recession and collapse of their economy is a dated one. China's middle class is importing and buying things like no others, they just overtook the U.S. as the biggest spender when traveling overseas, and they certainly aren't the guys who keep saving money and don't know how to spend that they were a decade ago.
India's economy is going to outpace china in the long run, they have a larger middle class, and better industries, China's in a huge bubble they created and sustains by building ghost cities, which cannot last.
The only thing that strikes me as important and not just fixing a problem that they created is investment in public transportation infrastructure. It is going to have big long-term benefits. There are way too many cars there which contribute to the pollution problem, but in general, social mobility comes with affordable transportation which the country needs to be a modern nation.
PdotMichael
Banned
Well, India is the next big thing. But nope (right now in the near future).
darkhunger
Member
India's infrastructure is far, far behind that of China's, and its government is extremely inefficient, with the regulations in place staggering. Until they can figure out how to get their shit together there's no way they can catch up with China, even though certain things on paper look nice.
I'd be curious to know how well made most of their buildings and roads are. Aren't they throwing together skycrapers in weeks or months? Impressive? Yes, but I wouldn't step foot in one.
And they're also really screwing up the environment and need to establish some regulations to curb emissions.
And they're also really screwing up the environment and need to establish some regulations to curb emissions.
Very true.
GameGuru59
Banned
It might seem intimidating, but China can only go so-far while continuing to be an insular as it is. They might even surpass our economy, and that's fine. But its diversity of ideas and commitment to openly debating ideas will continue to give America an advantage for the foreseeable future.
yeah, that bubble burst. Massive inflation too.
A few fellow teacher friends of mine are teaching in Canadian off-shore schools outside Shanghai and really love the locals and the food, but bitterly complain how shoddily everything is made. I've seen pictures of their apartments with holes bored into the wall with an ill fitted pipe running across the ceiling and stuff like that. Plus numerous buildings that have been built, and then torn down and rebuilt in the three years they've been there.
On the teaching side their students absolutely crush any black and white, fact based exam but cannot write their opinion on anything or interpret a grey issue if their life depended on it, which mirrors the issues I have teaching students who have recently arrived from east Asia in my classes here. Combining that with what I've been told is a cultural acceptance of what we consider plagiarism makes for a frustrating time.
Right, I've heard of issues in American universities having exchange students from China come in and expect to be able to plagiarize with no repercussions.
What you've said about how shoddily stuff is made squares with what I've also read. While we have a lot of red tape in the US regarding proper codes and getting inspections done, it's usually done pretty well.
One issue with China as a world power is the culture gap and the exportation of culture as soft power. I can't see Chinese entertainment ever exporting to the West in the same capacity that you see US culture exporting to the rest of the world. Becoming a world power isn't just about economic might, culture and its desirability by others has a large part to do with it.
The truth is, most education systems in the West suck as well. Too many stupid politicians push "reforms" and confuse teachers and students, too many parents make the teacher's life to hell instead of teaching their kids basic skills, and too many tax payer are not willing to pay for good education, thus vote for those who cut the education spending.
Glass Shark
Banned
I don't know what to believe about China. I have a friend who went and lived there for almost a year and he claims that their infrastructure and building projects are largely a facade... in some cases, quite literally. As in they are building giant skyscrapers that aren't meant to have anything in them, they are just there for show.
As far as I know they really don't care about patents
Geopolitical analysts predict India won't progress much in the future, and China's growth will fall off. And as great as some of their infrastructure looks, it starts to fall apart when you look at air quality and health care. Mexico and Turkey are some of the rising nations for the next few decades.
If you want to talk about cheat codes then USA will be no.1 for the foreseeable future. USA's combination of neighbors, ports, rivers, and other resources is unmatched.
Perfect first post.
Hey OP, it's almost as if they are also human beings whose lives matter as much as yours or mine, huh?
True Savior
Member
China in Portugal has already major positions in our biggest electric utility company distribution and transport/infrastructure of electricity and gas. They are about to buy one of the biggest banking groups. We had a chinese investment in 2014 of about 1%GDP , the biggest in the entire EU. The second one ? 0,32%...
I'm already Chinese.
I'm already Chinese.
Cheap but functional is very common in developing countries. I stayed in Thailand for a long while (and visited China and neighboring countries) and I quickly noticed most new buildings and infrastructure had a facade of first world appearance but upon closer inspection were made of cheap materials or built using cheap methods. I stayed with a well off family for a while and their house was nearly brand new and looked very modern and expensive at first, but their walls were very thin and weak, their air conditioning was not integrated into the home and had to be retrofitted onto walls or windows, there was no kitchen, and furniture such as couches weighed like 7 pounds and constantly had to be moved back into position. All houses were like this, for people lucky to have them.
It's just the marginal power of money at work. Your first $30,000 can build you a functional home in a developing country, but to get it 20% nicer and feel like a first world home would mean you'd double the cost to build it or more. That extra mile is prohibitive in developing countries.
PdotMichael
Banned
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-23/mexico-to-overtake-russia-by-2050-as-u-s-slides
I guess geopolitical analyses are like weather reports, pick the one you like the most.
How did you end up drawing that conclusion?
This is really an over exaggeration--as has been pointed out, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and Singapore have fairly modern economies that are not held back decades by their similar education systems. I think they generate enough of the geniuses that end up powering an economy--sit in on a Tsinghua or Peking U seminar and the level of discussion is as impressive as discussions in top US schools, and of course there are literally hundreds of thousands that study abroad each year--I work with Chinese lawyers everyday and I don't see the disaster that you see. As for the rest of the economy, it is actually very useful for basic workers to have very solid basic skills like math--one thing I notice in the U.S. is how often cashiers struggle with calculating change.
If you want to talk about a disaster, you should look at the U.S. education system and the near 50% drop out rates in inner city schools.
Almost sounds like China today is basically where the US was 100 years ago. Stuff like this makes me think it's all cyclical, like the role of "great global economic power" has just been passing from one country to another every century for the last 500 years or so -- basically since the Middle Ages ended and the "modern era" began in the economic sense.
I think this cycle maybe started with the Dutch Golden Age in the 17th century. Not sure who followed that in the 18th century (the French?), but in the 1800's it was the British and now it's the US. It looks like China might be next up, or maybe India depending on what happens over the course of the next few decades. Then you have a whole list of prospective rising countries that could become new big players half a century from now: Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey, etc.
Whenever I see pictures and read descriptions of Asian cities today it makes me think they've almost achieved a state similar to the cities in 80's sci-fi and cyberpunk movies.
evil solrac v3.0
Member
The way they're going about it very wrong though.
The US borders on anti-intellectual now. There will be a precipitous slide in US power in the upcoming years as China in particular, which values pragmatism over ideology, overtakes it by an insurmountable degree.
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