This gen, my picks for stuff that will stand the test of time are Portal 2 (for storytelling and humour) Super Mario Galaxy and it's sequel (for reminding everyone what Nintendo can still do when they have a mind to) Dark Souls and Xenoblade (for refusing to let JRPGs die after a pile of crap efforts). Also Fallout 3/New Vegas (for introducing a new generation to the parody of Americana that is the wasteland), Street Fighter 4 (for rebooting a whole genre),The Walking Dead (for being better than it had a right to be and showing that child characters don't have to be annoying escort missions), maybe Skyrim (for added 'verticality' , and generally proving that the single player adventure isn't dead yet, and an epic ad that made a D&D inspired dungeon crawl make everyone want to be an epic hero via the medium of horned helmets and axes).
Special mention to the Etrian Odyssey games- it's a series I think will keep growing gradually as the depth of its mechanics becomes more well-known. I think each has built steadily on the last without losing sight of its core appeal, quite a rare thing these days.
The shooter franchises I can see being bettered as the online matches are refined each time, and the same for 2D Mario, they blend into each other a bit. I don't see Uncharted or Gears being hailed as anything special once everyone is tired of crouching behind walls for 80% of an action game, but, y'know, opinions etc.
In terms of influencing pop culture outside games, Xbox joining Playstation and Nintendo as common shorthand for gaming, plus CoD and Angry Birds.