Excellent thread. As Xbox continues to flush itself down the toilet, more and more people will wonder what an Xbox-less future looks like.
1. Does Sony make any immediate changes to their strategy?
No. Their business strategy is probably locked-in for the next 3 years, so any major changes that happen will be a result of like another pandemic or an alien invasion. It won't be because Xbox pulls out of hardware.
2. What does the rest of the PS5 generation look like and how long will it last?
More Xbox games on PlayStation (e.g., Starfield, Halo, Forza etc.) and maybe 5 more big first-party releases from PlayStation before the PS6 releases. I'm guessing based on GaaS still being incredibly popular and based on the cost(s) and time of making games only going up up and up, the PS5 will still receive support well-into 2030. The PS4 -- a system that came out 12 years ago -- is still receiving support, albeit in a reduced fashion. It makes sense that even with all of the buzz around AI this and machine learning that, the PS5 will still be a viable platform for developers and players for the next 5 years.
3. How does Sony approach the PS6 without a direct competitor?
They'll probably overcharge for the console and undercharge for the handheld. The PS5 Pro is a bad sign of what happens when they don't have a direct competitor. I expect the PS6 console won't be astronomically priced but it won't be cheap. As for the handheld, the Switch 2 forces Sony to not fuck around with pricing. As they learned with the PSP and Vita, Nintendo is incredibly competitive in the handheld space. Additionally, I expect PS6 first-party software will be littered with remaster after remaster and GaaS attempt after GaaS attempt. PlayStation will only learn how bad their software strategy is when people stop supporting their software. The good news is, it does seem like a number of popular sites and streamers/vloggers are unafraid to call out the PS5 first-party software as the worst first-party software in PlayStation history. Finally, I expect pricing for PS6 games will be $80 as a standard. It's going to be an expensive generation.
4. How does this affect PS+ and their PC releases?
PS+ prices will go up, PC releases won't stop. The software and services people at PlayStation -- the same minds responsible for Concord, requiring a PSN login to play Helldivers 2 and then reversing it, canceling Factions, thinking Bungie was a good idea, thinking BluePoint working on a GoW GaaS would pan out etc. -- won't just disappear when Xbox disappears. Their current software leadership is the riskiest part of the entire PlayStation business; they genuinely come across as people who are unqualified to make good decisions for the future of the platform. I can't stress this enough: even though 20% (possibly less) of all software sales are first-party, it's that 20% that gets people in the door.
5. Does anyone else step up in the console space? If so, who and how?
The likeliest company would be Valve. But Valve have one massive problem. Outside of some maniacs still playing The Orange Box, 99% of Valve's audience are on a dedicated PC. You're just not going to get PC users to switch to console. So think about it like this: If Xbox officially pulls out of the console space and 'redirects' their users to dedicated PCs, and Valve jumps into the console space with the GabeStation 1, who will be Valve's audience? A very small percentage of Xbox users (which is already the smallest userbase in the console space), and some PS and Nintendo users. Realistically, their potential userbase would be under 20M. That's just not enough to keep a multi-billion dollar business going. Another entrant into the space could be the Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund. They have hundreds of billions of dollars to spend, and they could see a business reason to have their own console now that they control EA. However, they too have a massive problem. A lot of people in the western and eastern world (a massive audience of console users) do not want to support their efforts.
6. Will there even be another console generation or will the industry look different by then?
100% guaranteed there will be another console generation. Over 50% of consoles are sold in regions with so-so to crappy internet. This is a key point to remember: it's impossible to fix/upgrade an internet infrastructure if there isn't an economy (i.e., billions of dollars) to finance it. In the context of modern gaming -- 100GB+ filesizes, 20GB+ updates, 1440p streaming of 50 hour+ games -- it's going to take a while for the rest of the world to catch up to the faster internet countries. Cloud gaming -- which will be the successor to console gaming -- simply won't be ready for the world for another 12 to 15 years. That's roughly two more PlayStation generations, and it lines up with where generation Alpha will be age-wise (i.e., young adults who can afford subscription based cloud gaming.)
7. What other possibilities are there?
Well all of this shit could still go KABLOOEY. Never forget that we're always talking about expensive toys and not like drinking water or corrective lenses. There could be a massive flop (e.g., GTA6) that sours millions of people on console gaming, resulting in mass disinterest in future consoles. Realistically that won't happen, but there could be other things -- economies collapsing, WW3, another pandemic, a VR gaming headset that's revolutionary -- that could derail the console market.