NX should have a pretty good first year simply because of how things are lining up. Obviously there's Zelda, which many of us are assuming will release on both NX and Wii U. They've already said Pikmin 4 is almost done, so that could be there. Galaxy, Galaxy 2, and 3D World were each 3 years apart (2007, 2010, 2013). Late 2016 will fall in line with that, so it's safe to expect a new 3D Mario game either at launch or shortly afterwards. Retro is a bit more of a toss up. Returns came out in late 2013, and Tf came out in early 2014. About 3 years. So it's possible for them to get a game out by 2017, but I could easily see their game coming out early 2018, depending on various factors. If they're making another DK game, then they've had a lot of practice at that, so I could see one of those coming out in 2017 (maybe even 2016 if they didn't run into any trouble). But if they're making something else, well then there's no telling how it'll go. And the funny thing is, according to what Nintendo and various sources have told us, a lot of these games weren't able to come out earlier because they were having difficulty with HD development. If that's true, then they actually didn't do that bad of a job, considering the release of these games lines up with previous games in the series. 4-5 years for Zelda. 3 years for Mario. 3-4 years for Retro's games. If the whole "Hd is tough" era is over, then that's another reason for these games to easily come out in the first year of NX.
And that's not even considering the handheld, or any games that would have normally been handheld only. If the shared library is actually true, then we should naturally assume a higher number of quality games in the first year than usual.
