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[12Dannu123]

With smartphones, IOT, Switch, AR and VR HMDs and now PCs moving towards ARM with Windows 10 ARM64 and now Apple moving towards ARM in 2020, what are the chances of Consoles moving to ARM64? I won't be surprised if Microsoft moves towards ARM64 in the future, their Xbox OS is based in VMs so they can move to different architectures much more easily compared to Sony. IMO their lineup will likely be this.
https://venturebeat.com/2016/02/16/...playstation-4-xbox-one-in-2017-arm-forecasts/
In 2017 ARM64 mobile devices has reached the same power as XB1 and PS4. So in the future we may see Microsoft add a new ARM64 powered Console that is more powerful than XB1.

• Xbox One Lite = ARM64 powered = low end option without disk, digital only = $200
• Current Xbox One X = X64 powered = Mid range = $299 - $350
• Xbox One X2 = X64 powered = High end = $499

It's also possible that in 2023 - 2024, where XB1X is discontinued, an ARM64 will take it's place then we will have

• Xbox One Lite 2 = ARM64 low end
• Xbox One X3 = X64 powered.

There's one thing clear. X86 is being phased out and being replaced by ARM. Apple is replacing X86, Windows 10 is now ARM64, HoloLens is also moving from X86 to ARM64, I won't be surprised if Consoles follow the same route.

 

[blu]

ARM definitely has the healthier vendor ecosystem and the performance/power advantage -- that has already pushed big cloud users like MS to experiment with ARM in Ajure, and smaller/more specialized cloud users like Cloudflare and Hatch to switch to ARM altogether. There is also the moment of Moore's Law coming to a halt and fab-node parity among the silicon vendors (actually, Intel is at a disadvantage currently with their delayed 10nm). So the question of ARM64 in console is one of 'Who among ARM vendors can provide the best GPU along with that ARM64', and there options are: Nvidia, Qualcomm, Samsung (with licensed Mali IP), and, yep, AMD.

 

[Armorian]

Maybe gen 10, PS5 and Xbox "whatever" will be x86.

 

[llien]

Switch with the some unexplained nvidia magic hype bonus was supposed to take on XB1 & PS4, why did that not happen?

ARM's total revenue is about 1-2% of Intel's. They sell/license a lot of cheap stuff.

Apple moving towards ARM in 2020,

Rumored to be considering moving towards ARM (which, to a big extend, could be a side effect of replacing MacOS with iOS).

In 2017 ARM64 mobile devices has reached the same power as XB1 and PS4.

Has it? I have seen ARM "promising" it back in 2016, but has it actually achieved it?

ARM definitely has the healthier vendor ecosystem and the performance/power advantage -- that has already pushed big cloud users like MS to experiment with ARM in Ajure, and smaller/more specialized cloud users like Cloudflare and Hatch to switch to ARM altogether.

Welp, check perf/watt of i7 vs others on this chart:

Conclusion: "An x86 chip can be more power efficient than an ARM processor, or vice versa, but it’ll be the result of other factors — not whether it’s x86 or ARM. "
extremetech

 

[odhiex]

I have different theory about XBOX. I think that there will be many variant of XBOXes in the future, including machine from another manufactures. Think PC/mobile/console(s) with XBOX UI, GamePass and XBOX Live service.

I don't know, but they (Phil Spencer) have hinted several times already that their gaming business would expand beyond console. I am sure there will be a console after the XBOX One X from Microsoft, but I would not be surprised that the XBOX brand will be licensed to other manufactures. Cloud is also their focus.

 

[notathing]

By the time anyone comes with a really, really fast general purpose ARM chip that scales up, it wouldn't matter for all that much. Not that I am prophet or anything, just how it looks to me

 

[Horsemama1956]

ARM chips scale up terribly. These would be some shitty consoles.

 

[shark sandwich]

I disagree with the premise of OP.

1. Latest rumor is that Apple is ditching Intel, not x86 entirely. Going for a semi custom AMD design

2. My understanding is that the reason we have x86 for X1/PS4 is because they got a really great deal from AMD. Next gen will use x86 if they can get the best bang for their buck by doing so, it’s as simple as that.

3. Highly doubt they’ll release multiple SKUs using different ISAs. What value could they possibly see in supporting both x86 and ARM simultaneously? It’s not as though one is inherently better for gaming than the other. Low and high end designs exist on both sides.

 

[shark sandwich]

ARM chips scale up terribly. These would be some shitty consoles.

Cortex A15 (the high-end ARM core when PS4/X1 launched) was very close to Jaguar performance-wise, and even beat it in a few benchmarks.

And just look at Switch. ~75% of X1 performance in a tablet form factor with one teeny fan cooling it. And that’s using the old Tegra X1 CPU that was outdated even when Switch launched.

 

[llien]

And just look at Switch. ~75% of X1 performance in a tablet form factor...

4 ARM Cortex cores at 1Ghz is 75% of 8 Jaguar cores at 1.75Ghz?
256 of nVidia shaders at 300Mhz is 75% of 768 AMD shaders at 800Mhz?

 

[blu]

Welp, check perf/watt of i7 vs others on this chart:

Fear not, welp is on its way.

Conclusion: "An x86 chip can be more power efficient than an ARM processor, or vice versa, but it’ll be the result of other factors — not whether it’s x86 or ARM. "
extremetech

This ancient chart clearly shows i7 does not have a better performance/power than an A15 (5.2BIPS/25W vs 1.5BIPS/7W), even when Intel had the hands-down fab advantage. Hmm, could things have changed since then?..

Here, update yourself on the status quo:
https://blog.cloudflare.com/arm-takes-wing/

Yes, Cloudflare are switching their datacenters to ARM64 (Qualcomm Centriq 2400) due to better performance/power for Cloudflare's workloads. And some new players like Hatch are going directly ARM64, so they don't have to switch anything.

You're welcome.

 

[llien]

This ancient chart clearly shows i7 does not have a better performance/power than an A15

That's exactly what that "ancient chart" shows. Performance is on horizontal axis and i7 being below the line means it has higher perf/watt.

Here, update yourself on the status quo:

Many server clusters run software that could be easily ported to other platforms.
Had that magical picture have truth in it, we'd see server business slip into ARMs hands at rapid rate. Something that is not happening.

PS
You should check the blog link you've yourself provided, 170W Intel destroys ARM server wannabe 120W in majority benchmarks.

 

[blu]

That's exactly what that "ancient chart" shows. Performance is on horizontal axis and i7 being below the line means it has higher perf/watt.

I quoted the exact numbers from the plot for the two datapoints -- A15 and i7. Please, explain how i7 has better performance/power from the chart.

Many server clusters run software that could be easily ported to other platforms.
Had that magical picture have truth in it, we'd see server business slip into ARMs hands at rapid rate. Something that is not happening.

Haha, really hurts you, doesn't it? Not everybody needs to switch to ARM overnight. But some are in the process.

PS
You should check the blog link you've yourself provided, 170W Intel destroys ARM server wannabe 120W in majority benchmarks.

Did you actually read the article or just looked at pictures and improvised? The only thing "170W Intel destroys ARM server wannabe 120W" are single-threaded benchmarks and Go. In everything else Qualcomm's ARM server chip is either on-par or clearly beats the intel chip, whereas the Go situation on ARM has largely improved since last year, because, you guessed it, proper effort by large sw provides. Which, low and behold, is why Cloudflare, one of the world's largest reverse proxy providers, is going ARM at the moment. You're welcome, again.

 

[DonF]

Question, IF msft and sony went arm64 next gen, what are the chances of retro compatibility ?

 

[llien]

I quoted the exact numbers form the plot for the two datapoints -- A15 and i7. Please, explain how i7 has better performance/power from the chart.

I stand corrected, A15 has marginally better perf/w than i7.

Haha, really hurts you, doesn't it?

No, how old are you? ^^

Question, IF msft and sony went arm64 next gen, what are the chances of retro compatibility ?

If Sony indeed went 8 cores, porting should be trivial. Whether they will actually allow BC will depend on other, non technical factors.

 

[blu]

I stand corrected, A15 has marginally better perf/w than i7.

No, how old are you? ^^

Old enough to actually read charts and understand them ;p

 

[Ar¢tos]

What about the instruction sets? Can all features of directx or GNM be easily used in RISC?

 

[blu]

What about the instruction sets? Can all features of directx or GNM be easily used in RISC?

Win10 runs on ARM64.

 

[Trogdor1123]

So would this cause another huge issue with backwards compatibility? If so, I don't want it.

 

[Reizo Ryuu]

In 2017 ARM64 mobile devices has reached the same power as XB1 and PS4. So in the future we may see Microsoft add a new ARM64 powered Console that is more powerful than XB1.

No they made a "forecast".
Also it might get there in a theoretical sense, but not in a practical sense; unless they also invented a tiny battery that doesn't run out of power trying to run a mobile ps4 for more than 5 seconds.

 

[Alexander DeLarge]

ARM is years behind the high end offerings and I doubt it'll ever catch up. Don't know where OP got the impression that X86 is being phases out.

 

[a multicultural team of v]

If Intel failed at killing x86, I have a hard time believing anyone else could this easily. Maybe some day, but I doubt within the next years.

 

[camelCase]

ARM is years behind the high end offerings and I doubt it'll ever catch up. Don't know where OP got the impression that X86 is being phases out.

I know. Is arm better for some reason? Seems to me like having 86/64 assembly would be way better than having to use more recent lesser known programming techniques to get your thing to work on a chip made for lower performance embedded systems.

 

[nkarafo]

In 2017 ARM64 mobile devices has reached the same power as XB1 and PS4.

Wait, what? Did this happen? Seems i missed it.

 

[junkthemagicdragon]

I feel like this discussion of perf/watt is missing the point in a console discussion. Console manufacturers care about performance / chip cost, not energy efficiency. Every launch console that came with a 250w PSU proves that. Unless they pull a Nintendo and decide to stop making home consoles, efficiency isn't a big deal unless it starts melting itself a la 360. As long as AMD can provide a powerful enough APU for a better price than an ARM alternative (PS4 BC being a nice bonus) I don't see the PS5 going ARM.

Microsoft, on the other hand, could be a wild card. They want a future based on services, not hardware. I see them eventually transitioning to a hardware-agnostic software platform. In the meantime we could see GamePass streaming boxes, download-only consoles, or XB1 microconsoles. I think a cost-reduced die shrink of the X is likely to be their next mainstream console.

 

[llien]

For what it's worth:

Microsoft's general manager for Windows, Erin Chappie, told Engadget today that an SDK for ARM64 apps will be announced at the upcoming Build developer's conference in May. From the report:With the new SDK, developers would be able to natively recompile their apps to run in 64-bit on ARM-based PCs like the ASUS NovaGo. This opens up app support for the platform, which previously only supported 32-bit apps. The potentially greater app compatibility is welcome, since this was one of the biggest drawbacks of Windows on Snapdragon devices. But whether you'll get the higher performance that you'd typically expect out of 64-bit apps will depend on the Snapdragon 835 CPU that powers the current generation of the PCs in question. Connected PCs ship with Windows 10 S, but Microsoft has been offering free upgrades to Windows 10 Pro through 2019, making the OS more familiar and versatile. The ARM 64 SDK will be available for both Store apps and desktop versions (.exes). Ultimately, it'll be up to developers to decide whether they want to go to the trouble of recompiling their apps for Windows on Snapdragon, but Microsoft at least appears to be making strides in creating as open and useful a platform as possible.

 

[blu]

Wait, what? Did this happen? Seems i missed it.

In CPU terms iOS blew way past ps4/xb1 with the A10X already*. In GPU terms -- they haven't had the TDP budget yet, but A10X's GPU should be within 30-ish % from the xb1 in 3Dmark benches.

* Take these GB4 scores, multiply the multi-core res by 2, then compare to the ios cpu scores.

 

[shark sandwich]

I know. Is arm better for some reason? Seems to me like having 86/64 assembly would be way better than having to use more recent lesser known programming techniques to get your thing to work on a chip made for lower performance embedded systems.

There’s nothing about x86 that makes it inherently higher performance than ARM. In fact Apple’s custom ARM designs are getting near desktop-level performance while consuming a fraction of the power. And even mid-range ARM designs blow AMD Jaguar out of the water.

AFAIK nobody actually writes x86 assembly. What matters is whether the game engines & APIs have ARM versions, which just about all of them do

 

[magnumpy]

there's the problem that basically all games are using x86 now. moving to a different architecture like ARM is a big headache. it's not impossible, but a big headache. low power devices such as cell phones are a different matter, but that's because they run off of internal batteries. a console doesn't have to run off of an internal battery, they get plugged into the wall for power.

 

[12Dannu123]

I have different theory about XBOX. I think that there will be many variant of XBOXes in the future, including machine from another manufactures. Think PC/mobile/console(s) with XBOX UI, GamePass and XBOX Live service.

I don't know, but they (Phil Spencer) have hinted several times already that their gaming business would expand beyond console. I am sure there will be a console after the XBOX One X from Microsoft, but I would not be surprised that the XBOX brand will be licensed to other manufactures. Cloud is also their focus.

Possibly, I guess they'll call Xbox as a brand name and not a specific console, so it’ll be Microsoft Xbox, Dell Xbox etc.

If Intel failed at killing x86, I have a hard time believing anyone else could this easily. Maybe some day, but I doubt within the next years.

The difference seems to be that Intel has the power to do so, the reason why Intel couldn’t do it was because they had 50/50 of the market. If AMD and Intel agreed to breakup X86 then they will. Judging on the fact that ARM is slowly taking over the tech world and X86 loosing relevancy it won’t surprise me if they do break up X86 and each do their own architecture.

 

[a multicultural team of v]

The difference seems to be that Intel has the power to do so, the reason why Intel couldn’t do it was because they had 50/50 of the market. If AMD and Intel agreed to breakup X86 then they will. Judging on the fact that ARM is slowly taking over the tech world and X86 loosing relevancy it won’t surprise me if they do break up X86 and each do their own architecture.

True good point, but if they agree that x86 is a dead end I dont think they can each do their own thing - they would probably have to codevelop some new architecture, otherwise ARM likely will take over.

 

[12Dannu123]

True good point, but if they agree that x86 is a dead end I dont think they can each do their own thing - they would probably have to codevelop some new architecture, otherwise ARM likely will take over.

The thing is, ARM is already taking over, it's on everything with a massive share except PCs, Workstations and Servers. The moment ARM emulated X86 is faster than Intel Atom or higher is when ARM will go mainstream.

 

[magnumpy]

arm is taking over mobile devices, which run on batteries. batteries notoriously suck. you won't see gaming devices, except low power devices like cell phones and Nintendo consoles and laptops using batteries. higher end devices still need to be plugged into a wall outlet. it particularly sucks when you get a "battery is low, plug in to charge" warning after a bit of usage.

you'll find that is the sticking point. batteries are a big limiting factor for all electronics

yes better batteries are being worked on. you'll find the best of the best batteries powering things like electric cars. the newest electric cars have much smaller and more powerful engines but there is a huge amount of real estate devoted to the batteries they run on. they are generally stored beneath the car's floorboard. it is a huge amount of space, more than what is devoted to the engines with cars from the 90s.

better batteries are being worked on like I said. when will they get here? who knows. ask in a few years and you might get a different answer

 

[MilkyJoe]

I have different theory about XBOX. I think that there will be many variant of XBOXes in the future, including machine from another manufactures. Think PC/mobile/console(s) with XBOX UI, GamePass and XBOX Live service.

I don't know, but they (Phil Spencer) have hinted several times already that their gaming business would expand beyond console. I am sure there will be a console after the XBOX One X from Microsoft, but I would not be surprised that the XBOX brand will be licensed to other manufactures. Cloud is also their focus.

That's been floating around since the xbone launch. We call those PCs.

 

[Ar¢tos]

There’s nothing about x86 that makes it inherently higher performance than ARM. In fact Apple’s custom ARM designs are getting near desktop-level performance while consuming a fraction of the power. And even mid-range ARM designs blow AMD Jaguar out of the water.

AFAIK nobody actually writes x86 assembly. What matters is whether the game engines & APIs have ARM versions, which just about all of them do

Aren't hardware drivers still written in Assembly?

 

[nkarafo]

In CPU terms iOS blew way past ps4/xb1 with the A10X already

Well, current consoles have CPUs made for tablets afaik anyway.

 

[blu]

Well, current consoles have CPUs made for tablets afaik anyway.

For notebooks and tablets, yes. But I was merely replying to the 'when did that happen?' question.