Bubba_Sparks
Member
I'd say sometime after January 20, 2017.
-
Hey Guest. Check out your NeoGAF Wrapped 2025 results here!
When will China overtake the US as the world's "most powerful nation"?
- Thread starter Mattenth
- Start date
- Status
Captain Tuttle
Member
All of this. China is powerful and growing in influence but can't approach the US. It would take years of rapid decline in the US and years of growth in much more than GDP in China.
I'm not saying it's impossible and the US has a rough time ahead of it but it'll take years before China can approach American influence globally.
Hellraider
Member
Mathmatically, China represents the largest population on the planet and thus should eventually become the largest consumer economy. It also, just doing raw math, has more geniuses* than any other country. (*complicated subject thats hard to sum up quickly)
In Civ terms, we probably won the cultural victory but could still lose the science race. Any military conflict ends poorly for everyone, but basically militaries will exist to deter military conflict.
In Civ terms, we probably won the cultural victory but could still lose the science race. Any military conflict ends poorly for everyone, but basically militaries will exist to deter military conflict.
the US is so far ahead in things like power projection it isn't even funny
the only shot China even has at coming out ahead in the foreseeable future is beating America to an ASI
AI research is a field they are actually very competitive however,they might actually pull quite a bit ahead under President Trump
India has some major issues to deal with but it's worth noting that India is expected to surpass China in population in the near future,a UN estimate from last year places the expected date for that at 2022
the only shot China even has at coming out ahead in the foreseeable future is beating America to an ASI
AI research is a field they are actually very competitive however,they might actually pull quite a bit ahead under President Trump
India has some major issues to deal with but it's worth noting that India is expected to surpass China in population in the near future,a UN estimate from last year places the expected date for that at 2022
Za-Neen-Jya
Member
I can't help but think about the current strides being made in automation and AI when I think about the future of China. When the advances make most of their unskilled labor obsolete, how are they going to increase their power in the world stage? They'll have billions of people with no jobs, their already propped up semi-fascist government will no longer be able to distract them with wealth. I'm not sure I see any good outcome over there.
And this is why being anti-immigration is so stupid.
You WANT to be siphoning off the people that want to leave China that are geniuses or highly-educated or highly-skilled.
All those H1B visas that pull tech workers to the US from other countries -- that makes the US stronger, not weaker. Make those people citizens, and you get to KEEP them.
tearsintherain
Member
It has already in some areas, still has a ways to go in others. The changing of empires is really only noticed long after its happened. Their movie box office is going to surpass USA this year or next, their GDP will surpass the US and Europe by the end of the decade, but their military and technological capabilities will still take a while. Mandarin is much harder to learn than English so it'll be interesting to see what happens on the language/entertainment front.
The big struggle they have is that they have to maintain a certain growth rate to keep new graduates employed, and any sort of global recession will hit them much harder than other countries, since the whole capitalist-communist thing only works as long as times are good. Far, far, far more wealthy people move their money out of China (and Russia) on a regular basis and that'll become an issue at some point.
The big struggle they have is that they have to maintain a certain growth rate to keep new graduates employed, and any sort of global recession will hit them much harder than other countries, since the whole capitalist-communist thing only works as long as times are good. Far, far, far more wealthy people move their money out of China (and Russia) on a regular basis and that'll become an issue at some point.
Once they have a Navy fleet that matches ours.
They are working on aircraft carriers.
I'd say by around 2060 or so their Navy Aircraft carrier and Nuclear sub fleet will eclipse the US.
It's about projection of power. Right now China can't really do that other than their subs. Once they have a dozen or so Aircraft carriers floating around it's a different story.
From an Economic perspective they will eclipse the US by 2040 or so at the latest.
This is a when, not if, folks (as long as there isn't a Chinese civil war or something).
They are working on aircraft carriers.
I'd say by around 2060 or so their Navy Aircraft carrier and Nuclear sub fleet will eclipse the US.
It's about projection of power. Right now China can't really do that other than their subs. Once they have a dozen or so Aircraft carriers floating around it's a different story.
From an Economic perspective they will eclipse the US by 2040 or so at the latest.
This is a when, not if, folks (as long as there isn't a Chinese civil war or something).
titiklabingapat
Member
Trump will do a lot of damage but he is ultimately recoverable. Institutions in America are a lot more resilient than China's. Many of China's best are going to the USA for schools and many of them choose to stay as well.
I reckon the USA should lock up Australia as a stronger ally...
With China projecting itself in the South China Sea and into the pacific... it would pay to have a stronger ally in that area than just Japan.
Australia exports a ton of raw material to China etc, and I could imagine one day if China manages to work its way all the way down SE Asia that it would try and strong-arm Australia with some nebulous 'historical claims' that aren't real....
Get the North part of AUS filled up with military now America and re-unite with your defacto 51st state!
With China projecting itself in the South China Sea and into the pacific... it would pay to have a stronger ally in that area than just Japan.
Australia exports a ton of raw material to China etc, and I could imagine one day if China manages to work its way all the way down SE Asia that it would try and strong-arm Australia with some nebulous 'historical claims' that aren't real....
Get the North part of AUS filled up with military now America and re-unite with your defacto 51st state!
boiled goose
good with gravy
Not for a while...probably never
Still limited world cultural influence (hurt by censoring authoritarian government)
Aging population.
Still limited world cultural influence (hurt by censoring authoritarian government)
Aging population.
Razgriz-Specter
Member
The US isn't dominant because of the type of wars it is currently fighting in(which nobody could legitimately dominant in).
The US military at its current power would decimate a standing army.
Think of all the stuff the US has that serves absolutely zero purpose in Afghanistan and Iraq because those wars come down to boots on the ground going door to door.
Submarines, missiles, stealth bombers, fighters, even tanks ultimately make a small impact in these conflicts.
And imagine stuff like the predator drones with actual targets instead of bombing a pickup truck with a few terrorists or a crowded building that just maybe has a high value target inside.
Its honestly a bit of a scary thought with something so minor could potentially take out a barraks full of soldiers, defense inplacements, ships(obviously isn't going to take out higherend ships.) tanks, etc.
There are four broad areas of a country's capabilities that determine how strong it is. These are military strength, cultural influence, diplomatic capabilities, and economic capacity. China's strategic goals lie primarily on the latter two, and any attempts at cultural influence have fallen flat.
However, in terms of potential, it's likely that China will overtake the US in terms of economic output some time in the next 50 years. The rest probably don't matter as much in today's world.
I don't expect China's military strength to approach the US for a number of decades, but that's not really the purpose of the PLA. What China truly needs out of their military is to secure their territory, and to ensure their strategic vulnerabilities can't be threatened. The former is pretty much a given since it'd be impossible for any outside power to attack the Chinese mainland, and the latter is something that the PLA has been getting a lot better at.
However, in terms of potential, it's likely that China will overtake the US in terms of economic output some time in the next 50 years. The rest probably don't matter as much in today's world.
I don't expect China's military strength to approach the US for a number of decades, but that's not really the purpose of the PLA. What China truly needs out of their military is to secure their territory, and to ensure their strategic vulnerabilities can't be threatened. The former is pretty much a given since it'd be impossible for any outside power to attack the Chinese mainland, and the latter is something that the PLA has been getting a lot better at.
The problem is that Australia's largest trading partner is China; and by a lot too.
Exactly and thats the problem.
Economically they are bound to china and if their economy tanks so does Australias.
But culturally and politically it is basically America down there.
Court the shit out of them.
Money talks, and China is offering a helluva lot more money than the Americans are. Australia is going to end up in China's corner sooner or later.
ThoseDeafMutes
Member
Japan is ageing but despite that is much much stronger than Australia. There's also South Korea and Taiwan. Traditionally the Philippines but that's looking suspect these days. Australia has signed military alliances with America, New Zealand, UK, Singapore and Malaysia. So if China becomes legitimately threatening there's no shortage of allies of convenience for America, many of whom already have formal or informal alliances with America.
India is traditionally more of a Russian Ally, although it does offer a counterbalance to China and IMO has always been the most natural country to strengthen not in an explicit military alliance, but merely as a competing power to China.
boiled goose
good with gravy
When Americans are going to Chinese universities, are studying Mandarin, and are watching Chinese Movies, let's revisit the conversation.
In military power the US is fair ahead.
Chinese economy is stalling due do Aging population.. see Japan after 80s.
And soft cultural power it's still no contest.
I think major political and demographic changes would have to happen in china first.
In military power the US is fair ahead.
Chinese economy is stalling due do Aging population.. see Japan after 80s.
And soft cultural power it's still no contest.
I think major political and demographic changes would have to happen in china first.
I'm still looking at the climate problem as a key route forward for China. They've got the solar tech, the rare earth metals, and moreover the *impetus* to really take climate change seriously, they're really fucked by a few degrees change of temperature due to their more precarious climate.
Good arguments. Totally agreeing with you.
Bubba_Sparks
Member
I think the military superiority of the United States over China is actually much less of a certainty today that it was 16 years ago. Certainly it has the advantage today, but 10 or so years from now that might not be the case.
Chaos2Frozen
Member
Democracy gave America President Trump
It will take several decades more than that. Right now, China is unable to produce their own high-performance jet engines, and they're still using the H-6 as their sole strategic bomber. The PLA didn't start their modernization crash course until the Gulf War, and it will take them a very long time to catch up.
Exactly. Democracy isn't a solution for China at all. In fact, it probably would make things worse for everyone involved. The Chinese government is a rational actor, but the same cannot be guaranteed of China's populace.
China is the manufacturing capital of the world for electronics, in my opinion. Their monopoly on rare earth metals and other precious resources gives them an unparalleled advantage on the world's stage. They literally, once again in my opinion, contributed to the decline of the steel industry in America due to dumping cheap steel over here. In all honesty I can't blame them because exchange rates make selling anything abroad infinitely more profitable no matter the risk relative to RMB.
Trump is so universally dislikeable that his presidency could usher in a new era of China dominance due to the "conservative agenda".
Pre Trump this was an unthinkable solution as China's growth rate had to stagnate at some point. It was a moment where everyone wasn't as rich in China then all of a sudden everyone got bread. Sports car dealerships popping up everywhere as people got new money. That was a really fun time.
Trump is so universally dislikeable that his presidency could usher in a new era of China dominance due to the "conservative agenda".
Pre Trump this was an unthinkable solution as China's growth rate had to stagnate at some point. It was a moment where everyone wasn't as rich in China then all of a sudden everyone got bread. Sports car dealerships popping up everywhere as people got new money. That was a really fun time.
They won't for the next 30 years.
Back in 00 decade I thought China would get there but there are factors in play that will crush China.
Their 1 child policy will screw them when the parents reach retirement ages for 2 different reasons. There is a third factor that simply will create a huge argument over immigration.
China like the rest of East Asia doesn't produce oil and are poorly positioned to get it cheaply. There is a real potential for military conflict to rise up between each other or to pick sides among the oil exporters.
Back in 00 decade I thought China would get there but there are factors in play that will crush China.
Their 1 child policy will screw them when the parents reach retirement ages for 2 different reasons. There is a third factor that simply will create a huge argument over immigration.
China like the rest of East Asia doesn't produce oil and are poorly positioned to get it cheaply. There is a real potential for military conflict to rise up between each other or to pick sides among the oil exporters.
Simple: Never as long as they suffer under one-party dictatorship. This is very similar to Russia, they have influence in the world but are limited in their reach beyond like minded states, that holds it back. In terms of soft power such dictatorships are also hold back since any cultural product is heavily censored which limits its broader appeal to the actual free world. People seem to forget this.
QuantumZebra
Member
This.
Everytime I see this I shake my head.
Anyone that thinks China will ever surpass the U.S. in our lifetimes needs to understanding something:
The United States Navy.
One submarine of ours could end all life on Earth. Our strike groups are *Everywhere*.
We have eyes *Everywhere*. We have shit you couldn't imagine in space and on the ground.
Were you ever in the Navy in the Pacific? As a former US Submarine Officer I can tell you from personal experience that the Chinese sub fleet is absolutely garbage and is straight generations behind American subs.
Not only technologically, but in crew readiness.
The upcoming commissioning of the USS Gerald Ford disagrees with this statement.
Aren't we already basically lapdogs for the US? Our politicians love licking US sphincter.
Wyndstryker
Member
In the immediate 5-10 years. No
In 15-25 years, potentially
It really all depends what happens in say 20 years from now. A lot of things can happen in in that time.
In 15-25 years, potentially
It really all depends what happens in say 20 years from now. A lot of things can happen in in that time.
Agreed. I think the cracks are starting to show already.
Frankly I think India is gonna come back with a vengeance and be next big thing.
As a Chinese living in China, no, not in our generation's life time. We may only have a chance at it when the colonization of the outer space begins. But that's sci-fi material here.
All the people I know see it in this way, and frankly most of us don't really care. The strength/influence of the country does not directly translate to the well-being of its citizens, especially under our government system, sadly
All the people I know see it in this way, and frankly most of us don't really care. The strength/influence of the country does not directly translate to the well-being of its citizens, especially under our government system, sadly
nephilimdj
Member
I actually think navy wont be able to keep up with laser technology by the end of our lifetimes, everyone is working on it. laser defense and laser anti-satellite is the next "nuke"
Huge rave in the sky if anyone tries to attack your city.
Powerful military isn't everything. Allies and strong relationships go a long way, and America is at a turning point.
ThoseDeafMutes
Member
That's pretty speculative. The US navy has deployed combat lasers as of 2014-15, making them the first to do so in a naval context (beyond dazzlers). American and Israeli-American systems are the cutting edge right now. The US could fall behind, but there's no compelling reason to assume they will.
Probably never if you look at it militarily. A single carrier battle group is more powerful then the entire Chinese military. Economically, hell even socially I could see it happening with the trends in the USA, is possible for them to surpass. IMHO militarily will never happen before complex human civilization collapses from climate change, disease and war in the next 100 years.
hydrophilic attack
Member
within the next four years
PastorOfMuppets
Banned
China loses to the US on soft power areas like culture.
Nobody wants to be Chinese. There's no Chi-pop, no Chinese brand names people wear (although maybe with HTC and Xiaomi it's changing), nobody is listening to Chinese music, or watching Chinese movies. People from all over the world don't flock to Chinese universities to study. No intellectuals, business elites etc. are leaving their countries to explore opportunities in China.
Nobody wants to be Chinese. There's no Chi-pop, no Chinese brand names people wear (although maybe with HTC and Xiaomi it's changing), nobody is listening to Chinese music, or watching Chinese movies. People from all over the world don't flock to Chinese universities to study. No intellectuals, business elites etc. are leaving their countries to explore opportunities in China.
Lol of course there is no Chi-pop, but there is Mando-pop and Cantopop.
Chinese cinema be it from mainland or HK is quite large.
And lots of people have went to China to explore business opportunities from American McGee to Shane McMahon to Bill Gates.
China isn't going to replace the US anytime soon but to say completely that no one cares about china outside of it being a factory is pretty bonkers.
andythinkpad
Member
Chinese probably will never surpass America in military. The Chinese don't believe in influence the world with sticks. You can accomplish your goal cheaper and easier through other means.
Most of the Chinese military R&D focus on defensive techs in the South China Sea theater, not counting the hypersonic missiles which you can argue its an defensice weapon.
I know China has planned around 3-5 carrier groups in the near future. Personally, I don't know why China needs more than 2 carrier groups which is more than enough to be the no. 2 naval force in the world.
There are three naval theaters China would want to operate in: East/South China Seas, the Pacific Ocean, and the Indian Ocean. The extra 1-2 carrier groups would be in port for refit. China isn't interested in being the second most powerful navy; it wants to be able to have enough conventional naval power so that the US can't simply walk over them in those theaters. As is, it will be many decades before the PLAN gets that kind of capability.
Empires don't last forever. Once upon a time, you'd have said the same thing about the British Empire, or the Chinese Empire for that matter.
The british empire once had control over half the population of the world, far more powerful and influential than the US today, relatively speaking. Lost it all.
- Status