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[TDG]

Oh, here are the numbers:
DS: 425,000
Wii: 398,000
PS2: 325,000
360: 304,000
PS3: 255,000
PSP: 217,000
GCN: 56,000
XBOX: 8,000

Spoiler

Those aren't the real numbers, but that's probably what they are.

 

[GhaleonEB]

The other day I was shopping at Costco and they had a pallet full of PS3's that no one was taking a second look at. Not a single one sold while I was there. I didn't see any Wii's in stock though.

Anyways, I love these crazy NPD threads. Who ever thought people could be so passionate about simple math? :lol

NPD threads are fun on multiple levels.

-Fanboy meldowns

-gif heaven

-spin contests

-mass bannings

-insight into the shifing landscape of the industry <---- my primary interest

The lunacy of the first four points ususally take center stage for a while, but I actually find the trends incredibly interesting.

 

[_Alkaline_]

Well, sony cowboy was saying halfway through the month that PS3 wasn't doing much if any better than last month..

And the only reason your Wii prediction would come true is if Nintendo did actually stop shipping Wii's since it was the end of the fiscal year.

Well I'm a wii fan but to me it seems like it may be losing momentum. But that's probably just me.

 

[Pureauthor]

Sales, news, and Megaton threads are basically the main reason why one comes to GAF.

If I wanted real gaming discussion, I'd go to the game-specific boards on GameFAQS (extremely popular boards notwithstanding, but popular games tend to become popular games because they're braindead and don't need much discussion anyway).

 

[Eteric Rice]

Well I'm a wii fan but to me it seems like it may be losing momentum. But that's probably just me.

They have? Since when?...

 

[Cosmozone]

March's NPD numbers won't be very revealing and so will be April's. May is the earliest month I expect all three consoles to be widely available, but June is more realistic.

 

[Pureauthor]

If the Wii follows DS trends (and since it's based on pretty much the exact same business strategy, I get the feeling it will) it'll be in stock June 2009.

 

[_Alkaline_]

They have? Since when?...

I dunno, just sense a bit of it. I know for one that the launch of the PS3 and a lack of marketing from Nintendo has reduced the wii's popularity in PAL regions (ie: Australia) and I was getting a slightly similar feeling from USA (though not because of the ps3 obviously). Stuff like GDC and the releases of Virtua Fighter, Oblivion and Motorstorm and such would help the PS3, whereas not much(in terms of big selling games) has come out for Wii.

I dunno, guess i'll be proven wrong when the numbers come out - I'm pretty sure the PS3 games i listed above didn't even sell that great anyway.

 

[Eteric Rice]

If the Wii follows DS trends (and since it's based on pretty much the exact same business strategy, I get the feeling it will) it'll be in stock June 2009.

:lol

 

[GhaleonEB]

Well I'm a wii fan but to me it seems like it may be losing momentum. But that's probably just me.

Not on the hardware side, that's for sure. Every month so far anecdotal reports indicate Wii is very tough to find and GAF often interprets that as Wii is shipping low numbers. Four months out, and it's still going strong. I expect March sales will look a lot like January. Nothing has changed to impact the pecking order, or cause any significant swings for anyone.

 

[Gekkonidae]

Oh, here are the numbers:
DS: 425,000
Wii: 398,000
PS2: 325,000
360: 304,000
PS3: 255,000
PSP: 217,000
GCN: 56,000
XBOX: 8,000

Spoiler

Those aren't the real numbers, but that's probably what they are.

So the GBA is dead?

 

[AdmiralViscen]

I'm actually expecting PS3 to rise a fair bit and Wii to drop a fair bit. It wouldn't surprise me if Wii is ranked #2 or even #3.

I'd love to hear your reasoning.

March's NPD numbers won't be very revealing and so will be April's. May is the earliest month I expect all three consoles to be widely available, but June is more realistic.

2 of the 3 are widely available.

 

[angelfly]

March's NPD numbers won't be very revealing and so will be April's. May is the earliest month I expect all three consoles to be widely available, but June is more realistic.

Two of the three are already widely available.

 

[TDG]

So the GBA is dead?

I don't know what the GBA will do.

 

[_Alkaline_]

Not on the hardware side, that's for sure. Every month so far anecdotal reports indicate Wii is very tough to find and GAF often interprets that as Wii is shipping low numbers. Four months out, and it's still going strong. I expect March sales will look a lot like January. Nothing has changed to impact the pecking order, or cause any significant swings for anyone.

I would be interested to know how many people are buying a wii simply because of Wii Sports.

I do wonder how Wii Sports would sell if it was a standalone game.

 

[mentalfloss]

Oh, here are the numbers:
DS: 425,000
Wii: 398,000
PS2: 325,000
360: 304,000
PS3: 255,000
PSP: 217,000
GCN: 56,000
XBOX: 8,000

Spoiler

Those aren't the real numbers, but that's probably what they are.

PS3 <-> PSP

 

[_Alkaline_]

I'd love to hear your reasoning.

Mentioned above. Obviously, not much reasoning at all. Just a feeling, and very likely a wrong one.

 

[Emowii]

I do wonder how Wii Sports would sell if it was a standalone game.

You'll be able to find out with Wii Sports 2.

 

[acklame]

prediction:
wii - 540,000
ds - 390,000
x360 - 360,000
ps2 - 350,000
psp - 220,000
ps3 - 198,000

 

[JavyOO7]

PS3: 200k
360: 250k
PS2: 300K
Wii: 375k
GBA: 175k
DS: 475k
GCN: 25k
XBX: 0
PSP: 150k

My predictions anyway...

 

[cvxfreak]

It hasn't even felt that long since the February NPD. :lol

 

[Speevy]

PS3: The least
360: Slow and steady wins the race (or doesn't?)
Wii: OMG why is it selling there are no games
DS: HOLY CRAP
PSP: Better than expected, but still doubled by DS
GBA: Why is it still selling anything?
GCN: Who cares?
Xbox: They stopped making it.

 

[Beer Monkey]

I don't think the numbers are going to be terribly meaningful until fall. Once the holidays are over (bleeds into January because of Christmas cash) lots of potential buyers seem to go into wait-and-see mode.

 

[Hus]

I gotta agree...NPD threads are just so damn entertaining. Seriously...it's like live action text-based comedy...gotta love GAF.

Coming Soon: DS -> Wii -> PS2 -> 360 -> PSP -> GBA -> PS3 -> The rest...

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Is it 5 week?

I thought the next 5 week month would be April

The quarter-enders (March, June, September, December) are always 5 weeks. January is the oddball that's usually 4 but had the "leap week" this year.

 

[GhaleonEB]

I don't think the numbers are going to be terribly meaningful until fall. Once the holidays are over (bleeds into January because of Christmas cash) lots of potential buyers seem to go into wait-and-see mode.

It establishes where the public interest is in. Rarely do holiday swings change the overall landscape. There blips here and there (Xbox outselling the PS2 in Nov/Dec 2004), but I don't think any long-term change has occured from one. Q1 is a good indication of where things will fall for the rest of the year, assuming no major shake-ups such as price drops.

 

[crazythan]

So the GBA is dead?

I thought the GBA was still doing pretty well.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

It establishes where the public interest is in. Rarely do holiday swings change the overall landscape. There blips here and there (360 outselling the PS2 in Nov/Dec 2004), but I don't think any long-term change has occured from one. Q1 is a good indication of where things will fall for the rest of the year, assuming no major shake-ups such as price drops.

1) Slip of your finger-tongue there, of course you mean original Xbox in 2004.
2) You're right, it outselling PS2 was a blip mostly due to PS2 shortages, and I think PS2 went on to sell more than twice as well as Xbox in 2005.

 

[arne]

DS -> PS2 -> X360 -> Wii -> PSP -> PS3 -> GBA -> The rest...

 

[GhaleonEB]

1) Slip of your finger-tongue there, of course you mean original Xbox in 2004.
2) You're right, it outselling PS2 was a blip mostly due to PS2 shortages, and I think PS2 went on to sell more than twice as well as Xbox in 2005.

Yup, quite the slip there. Fixed. I wanted to call that one out so that someone didn't jump in and say how those two reversed for that holiday. (The point being, it didn't matter since it was due to seasonal factors such as the PS2 shortage and the Halo 2 release; things went back to "normal" in short order.)

DS -> PS2 -> X360 -> Wii -> PSP -> PS3 -> GBA -> The rest...

0_o

 

[Reilly]

I predict the PS3 will outsell the 360

Spoiler

It's a prediction, don't be hatin'

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Yup, quite the slip there. Fixed. I wanted to call that one out so that someone didn't jump in and say how those two reversed for that holiday. (The point being, it didn't matter since it was due to seasonal factors such as the PS2 shortage and the Halo 2 release; things went back to "normal" in short order.)


0_o

Hey, the man's gotta cheer for his team.

Personally I'm thinking:

DS >> Wii > PS2 >> 360 > PSP >> PS3 > whatever else.

 

[crazythan]

I predict the PS3 will outsell the 360

Spoiler

It's a prediction, don't be hatin'

I think their is a real possiblity of that because they'll start seeing sales from the GDC announcement and motorstorm's launch. Also, I think I think the announcement of the elite will lower sales for the xbox because ppl will want to wait for the newer system.

 

[KINGMOKU]

DS -> PS2 -> X360 -> Wii -> PSP -> PS3 -> GBA -> The rest...

Brotha', you should of went all the way.


I'm going to go out on a limb here, and predict that the PS3, while not outselling the 360, will be really, really close to it in March.

 

[schuelma]

I think their is a real possiblity of that because they'll start seeing sales from the GDC announcement and motorstorm's launch. Also, I think I think the announcement of the elite will lower sales for the xbox because ppl will want to wait for the newer system.

I would be absolutely shocked if the GDC announcements had any effect whatsoever on sales in March.

 

[NinSoX]

Also, I think I think the announcement of the elite will lower sales for the xbox because ppl will want to wait for the newer system.

So do people love the Elite or hate it? Make up your mind people!!!

 

[GhaleonEB]

I would be absolutely shocked if the GDC announcements had any effect whatsoever on sales in March.

I don't think news has ever impacted sales to any measurable degree. New game releases - yes, price cuts/bundles - yes, but never news.

 

[diddlyD]

The other day I was shopping at Costco and they had a pallet full of PS3's that no one was taking a second look at. Not a single one sold while I was there. I didn't see any Wii's in stock though.

i can't believe people are still posting statements like this. :lol

 

[Eteric Rice]

i can't believe people are still posting statements like this. :lol

Yeah, same. It's already widely accepted that the PS3 can be easily found, and the Wii cannot.

 

[Chiggs]

Yeah, same. It's already widely accepted that the PS3 can be easily found, and the Wii cannot.

I see what you did there.

 

[Gekkonidae]

What's the fun of predicting? March is going to look just like January and February.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Yeah, same. It's already widely accepted that the PS3 can be easily found, and the Wii cannot.

I've never seen a Wii in stores. Therefore, Nintendo stopped shipping them.

What's the fun of predicting? March is going to look just like January and February.

With respect to the DS and PS3 in particular, February did NOT look like January.

 

[FrankT]

I predict the PS3 will outsell the 360

Spoiler

It's a prediction, don't be hatin'

Yep, a prediction that has failed for the last 2 months. But hey, it is a prediction no less. Three times a charm, amiright?

 

[PistolGrip]

My predictions:

DS - 410k: one king to rule them all. (should be interesting to see the PSP with the new price in April)
PS2 - 290k: still going strong in the US
PS3 - 240k: screw the haters. Motorstorm and Oblivion and March exitement say hi
Wii - 230k: Supply has been worse this month than ever.
360 - 210k: Elite leaks might hurt sales of the Premium.
PSP - 210k: Should see a major jump next month with new marketing and lower price.
The rest: Who cares really.

 

[schuelma]

My predictions:

DS - 410k: one king to rule them all. (should be interesting to see the PSP with the new price in April)
PS2 - 290k: still going strong in the US
PS3 - 240k: screw the haters. Motorstorm and Oblivion and March exitement say hi
Wii - 230k: Supply has been worse this month than ever.
360 - 210k: Elite leaks might hurt sales of the Premium.
PSP - 210k: Should see a major jump next month with new marketing and lower price.
The rest: Who cares really.

Where is your evidence that the supply has been worse than ever? You are in effect saying weekly production went from about 90K a week to 45K? That seems pretty unlikely.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

they'll start seeing sales from the GDC announcement

You really think the people who

Were on the fence about getting a PS3
Watch gaming news closely enough to know about GDC
Were convinced by the announcements at GDC
Didn't care to wait until the announced things actually released

make a big enough group to significantly change sales for the month?

Also, I think I think the announcement of the elite will lower sales for the xbox because ppl will want to wait for the newer system.

That didn't happen until the tracking period was something like 80% over, though. Any effect would be minimal.

 

[antiloop]

Sony's 2nd funeral? Although the Europe numbers should revive them.

 

[Chiggs]

Motorstorm and Oblivion and March exitement say hi

What the **** is March excitement?

 

[rage1973]

Where is your evidence that the supply has been worse than ever? You are in effect saying weekly production went from about 90K a week to 45K? That seems pretty unlikely.

It's more like his wishful thinking.

 

[plagiarize]

march sales are traditionally less than february sales, so if the PS3 does any better it's a good sign that things are starting to turn around for it... even holding steady wouldn't be bad... and even a slight drop wouldn't be an indicator that sales were nose diving, they'd just be folllowing trends that have held up for most every console for most everyone of the last few years (supply constrained disparities ignored).