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Who Is The Greatest Video Game Analyst?

Nuclear Muffin said:
The sales GAF regulars are better than any of the "professional" paid analysts you mentioned.

Pachter is completely useless, just the fact that he still has a job as an analyst pisses me off.
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You want a bloke to lose his job?

Chill out bro.
 
Lard said:
Why what?



Why should someone who is extremely poor at their job be allowed to keep it when someone could do a better job?
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the bolded part I quoted.

Or why is he a terrible human being.
 
apana said:
N'Gai: I think he made a lot of early correct predictions about the Wii on Bonus Round. Also predicted that Resident Evil 5 was possibly racist.
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Why didnt he think that RE4 was racist against the Spanish? Or that Earlier RE games were racist towards whites? Do you think that he thinks that Black Hawk Down is racist against black people?

He's a self-serving hack. Worse than that, he is a self-serving hack who doesn't have the same respect for videogames as movies. Yet this same guy who didn't even play games back when those earlier RE's came out has now somehow gotten jobs in an industry he doesn't respect.
 
I <3 Memes said:
Why didnt he think that RE4 was racist against the Spanish? Or that Earlier RE games were racist towards whites?
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Probably because there's not racial tension between white Americans and Spaniards or other white Americans the way there is between white Americans and Africans. I mean, what the fuck are you even talking about? Who exactly would find RE4 racist? There's a history of Americans taking advantage of Africans that led to racism, what history would someone be drawing on if they claimed that early RE games were racist against whites? Always shocking and disappointing to see the ignorance people willfully put on show when responding to that incident. At the end of the day, that's how he felt as a person of African descent. Pretty stupid to call someone an idiot for expressing their place in society, even without the obvious lack of understanding of what racism is and how it came about evidenced by your juvenile post.

I will say though that saying that he "predicted RE5 was possibly racist" is a pretty lame evidence that he's a good analyst.
 
dr3upmushroom said:
Probably because there's not racial tension between white Americans and Spaniards or other white Americans the way there is between white Americans and Africans. I mean, what the fuck are you even talking about? Who exactly would find RE4 racist? There's a history of Americans taking advantage of Africans that led to racism, what history would someone be drawing on if they claimed that early RE games were racist against whites? Always shocking and disappointing to see the ignorance people willfully put on show when responding to that incident. At the end of the day, that's how he felt as a person of African descent. Pretty stupid to call someone an idiot for expressing their place in society, even without the obvious lack of understanding of what racism is and how it came about evidenced by your juvenile post.

I will say though that saying that he "predicted RE5 was possibly racist" is a pretty lame evidence that he's a good analyst.
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Umm I guess you didnt hear. It was kind of a big deal. But Spanish people found RE4 to be racist. But not Croal.

It's set in fucking Africa. I dont give a shit about white history or black history. I dont give a shit how racist people want to think it is. Those people are Idiots. When RE4 takes place in Spain then the population will by and large, or entirely, be Spanish. Same thing with black populations in most countries in Africa.

But would people make the same complaint about a zombie movie in Spain having zombies that are all Spaniards. No of course not. And to anybody who has a problem with that sort of regional accuracy in games but not movies...fuck you.
 
The best analyst is the one no one mentions.

Its not Frazier, Pachter, or N'Gai, or any of the industry's pop-analysts that get PR. Its the guy that never gets the PR, but works his butt off mulling over metrics to find a nugget of information to help out his executive staff. I really wonder how good these pop-analysts are, like Patcher, at developing complex formulas, or trying to look for new metrics to find a hidden gem in the industry.

Somewhere, there is an analyst at EA, Ubisoft, Nintendo, or another publisher or developer that helped report on something that led to a billion-dollar idea. That is who I think is the best analyst. And sadly, we'll probably never hear who it was.
 
Sean Malstrom is a borderline retard who is a massive conspiracy theorist who believes that all game fans are actively trying to destroy Nintendo by suggesting they focus more on core games, since deep inside they hate Nintendo and want nothing but to see Nintendo fail (same for all third parties).

The fact that your list nominates him calls the entire gig into question.

Opiate is better than anyone on your list.
 
I <3 Memes said:
Umm I guess you didnt hear. It was kind of a big deal. But Spanish people found RE4 to be racist. But not Croal.

It's set in fucking Africa. I dont give a shit about white history or black history. I dont give a shit how racist people want to think it is. Those people are Idiots. When RE4 takes place in Spain then the population will by and large, or entirely, be Spanish. Same thing with black populations in most countries in Africa.

But would people make the same complaint about a zombie movie in Spain having zombies that are all Spaniards. No of course not. And to anybody who has a problem with that sort of regional accuracy in games but not movies...fuck you.
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Wow, what a child. Just because you don't give a shit about history doesn't mean that many people are affected by it. You're lucky to be in a position that imagery in media that isn't intentionally racist doesn't call to mind situations in which you've been mistreated, but saying that people who do have those reactions can fuck off is pretty inhuman. Maybe you didn't hear, Croal is black himself. Kinda makes sense that he would react more to imagery involving violence against Africans than to similar imagery involving Spaniards, no? Doesn't mean either example is less legitimate.

Say there's two news stories on two channels; one claims that immature man children have a pathetically self-centered view of the world, and the other makes the same claim about Cambodians. Just because you're more likely to take offense at the former claim doesn't mean that the Cambodians don't have a right to also take offense, or that either group is being stupid for not being equally outraged by both claims. Taking more interest in things that have a direct effect on us is just human nature.

Also, I'm going to call bullshit on your claim that Spaniards found RE4 racist and challenge you to provide evidence beyond forum posters evoking the tired argument you've used here, and also point out that if there was a zombie movie set in Africa featuring exclusively white protagonists killing exclusively black zombies, you can bet some people would take offense.

And just for clarity's sake, even though it hopefully isn't necessary for majority of people reading this, I'll throw in that I'm not saying that RE5 was racist, just that calling someone an idiot for expressing how the game made them feel is stupid.


On topic, I think that pretty much anyone making predictions about the industry is crap-shooting at best unless they're stating the obvious, but John Davidson seemed to have a great ability to pick up on trends early on and use that to predict where we'd end up (for example I remember years ago he believed that all the casual stuff would catch on more than "core" gamers would expect, and that's certainly panned out.)
 
Shane Satterfield makes terrible predictions and rarely supports his shitty opinions. Calling him an analyst along the lines of some of these other guys is a bit much. Invisible walls is a pretty awful podcast.
 
Amir0x said:
Sean Malstrom is a borderline retard who is a massive conspiracy theorist who believes that all game fans are actively trying to destroy Nintendo by suggesting they focus more on core games, since deep inside they hate Nintendo and want nothing but to see Nintendo fail (same for all third parties).

The fact that your list nominates him calls the entire gig into question.

Opiate is better than anyone on your list.
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Im going to have to disagree. Malstrom does get on his high horse quite often but he has been quite accurate with regards to wii at least. He called the 2008 lull due to loss of focus and the nsmb bump relative to smg. He has been consistently accurate about ps3/360 canibalising each others sales (ie you never see both systems selling well).

I cant speak for opiate, I tend to miss most of his posts on the matter but the few I have seen have not left me too impressed.

Time will also tell if malstrom is right about kinect but he does seem to be wrong on initial sales. 1 year on will be enough to make the call though.
 
I know Gaf hates Pachter, but didn't he pretty much nail the kinect/move breakdown (After much hate), and the Wii's trajectory in 2010? He's also been dead on in his thoughts on the financial implications of free to play multiplayer, though I think his prescriptions for how to fix it are pretty terribly anti consumer.

I dunno, maybe he doesn't do as well with indivdual game sales predictions (see alan wake, RDR, borderlands, etc), but he seems to be spotting the bigger trends pretty well.
 
Problem is, there are different ways to analyze video games. There are those who are pretty good for getting the big picture and predicting what will/should happen, then there are those who seem to know the ins and outs and can describe accurately and convincingly the situation. Both types are valuable. So I'll just divide them in those two categories, in no particular order.

— "Big picture" guys: Opiate, kame-sennin, Sean Malstrom, Johann, timetokill, Vinci;
— All around knowledgeable guys: charlequin, Stumpokapow, and again, Opiate and Johann.


They're not right all the time, they're not interesting all the time, but these are my top choices anyway. My understanding of the video games market (and really, business in general) would be so much more shallow without them. Keep up the great work, guys!
 
"Also predicted that Resident Evil 5 was possibly racist. "

This one made me laugh pretty hard. How does one predict that RE5 is possibly racist or not?


Anyways, as a few have mentioned. The commentary from multiple Gaf posters far exceeds anything that list provides. The list is also identical to people I consider good posters too. So, it does tell you a lot.
 
electricpirate said:
I know Gaf hates Pachter, but didn't he pretty much nail the kinect/move breakdown (After much hate), and the Wii's trajectory in 2010?
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He was predicting a wii downturn every year since launch. Since it was selling out as quick as the shelves were stocked for 2 years, he was bound to be right eventually (in that it was always going to have a downturn but only by definition).

And it *still* outsold ps3/360.
 
To be honest with you, they all suck.
They are no better than your average NeoGAF forum poster. Maybe worst too as they are not even as knowledgable than most of us in what's hot and not. If you listen to their interviews, many of them are in fact referring to this forums to talk about what's hit.
 
dr3upmushroom said:
Probably because there's not racial tension between white Americans and Spaniards or other white Americans the way there is between white Americans and Africans. I mean, what the fuck are you even talking about? Who exactly would find RE4 racist? There's a history of Americans taking advantage of Africans that led to racism, what history would someone be drawing on if they claimed that early RE games were racist against whites? Always shocking and disappointing to see the ignorance people willfully put on show when responding to that incident. At the end of the day, that's how he felt as a person of African descent. Pretty stupid to call someone an idiot for expressing their place in society, even without the obvious lack of understanding of what racism is and how it came about evidenced by your juvenile post.

I will say though that saying that he "predicted RE5 was possibly racist" is a pretty lame evidence that he's a good analyst.
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Man the tone of your post is so condescending you really must feel proud.
 
N'Gai purely for sending GAF into a frenzied discussion regarding pretentiousness all because he used the word 'verisimilitude'.
 
Amir0x said:
Sean Malstrom is a borderline retard who is a massive conspiracy theorist who believes that all game fans are actively trying to destroy Nintendo by suggesting they focus more on core games, since deep inside they hate Nintendo and want nothing but to see Nintendo fail (same for all third parties).

The fact that your list nominates him calls the entire gig into question.

Opiate is better than anyone on your list.
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Like I said in my first post, I have a very broad definition of an analyst. The list was possible nominees. I wasn't saying that anyone had to agree with the list, it was just a few names thrown out there to start a discussion. Also by any definition, Sean Malstrom is one of the top analysts in the industry. You may not like his biases towards "casual" games but he has been right too many times and written a lot of informative essays on the topic of "blue ocean, expanded audience, etc.". I said in the beggining that you can mention GAF posters like Opiate. No one should be dismissive of the people on that list imo, Pachter is very well respected in the industry in regards to his financial analysis. N'Gai is extremely intelligent and made a lot of correct predictions in 2007 regarding the Wii. I provided explanations for all of them so I'm sorry people freak out about seeing names they may not like but I don't care.
 
electricpirate said:
I know Gaf hates Pachter, but didn't he pretty much nail the kinect/move breakdown (After much hate), and the Wii's trajectory in 2010? He's also been dead on in his thoughts on the financial implications of free to play multiplayer, though I think his prescriptions for how to fix it are pretty terribly anti consumer.

I dunno, maybe he doesn't do as well with indivdual game sales predictions (see alan wake, RDR, borderlands, etc), but he seems to be spotting the bigger trends pretty well.
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What? No. He completely missed on the Kinect/Move breakdown. He said frequently that he thought Move would massively increase PS3 sales and that Kinect would fail. He also thought Kinect would launch at $50 pre-e3. He pretty much was as wrong as you could possibly be on that subject.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
What? No. He completely missed on the Kinect/Move breakdown. He said frequently that he thought Move would massively increase PS3 sales and that Kinect would fail. He also thought Kinect would launch at $50 pre-e3. He pretty much was as wrong as you could possibly be on that subject.
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Hmm, heres the thread I found, seems pretty dead on in terms of the sales prediction, have links to where he changed his mind, I may have missd that. http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=388352
 
electricpirate said:
Hmm, heres the thread I found, seems pretty dead on in terms of the sales prediction, have links to where he changed his mind, I may have missd that. http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=388352
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Well that was his first prediction. When Kinect was announced or rumored to be 100-150 dollars, he seemed to back track quite a bit. I think it was on an episode of the bonus round. Pachter also said something to the effect of "it's my job to give financial analysis. The more general ones I do for the media are just for fun, and only fanboys get mad over it.". I think that is a more recent statement.
 
I don't give a shit about anyone who claims to be a 'video game analyst'.

Just like analytical therapy, it is a farce.
 
Gerstmann is super knowledgeable, but I don't know if you can call him an analyst because he doesn't make a ton of predictions.
 
Kilrogg said:
Problem is, there are different ways to analyze video games. There are those who are pretty good for getting the big picture and predicting what will/should happen, then there are those who seem to know the ins and outs and can describe accurately and convincingly the situation. Both types are valuable. So I'll just divide them in those two categories, in no particular order.

— "Big picture" guys: Opiate, kame-sennin, Sean Malstrom, Johann, timetokill, Vinci;
— All around knowledgeable guys: charlequin, Stumpokapow, and again, Opiate and Johann.


They're not right all the time, they're not interesting all the time, but these are my top choices anyway. My understanding of the video games market (and really, business in general) would be so much more shallow without them. Keep up the great work, guys!
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That is a pretty good list of posters.
 
Well I feel I was right about the industry getting trashed over failed high-budget projects and developers failing to temper their ambitions. I feel I was right about a lot of things that happened but unless there's an opportunity to put the information to good use they're not worth talking about.

I sooo called 3D

Overall, it's more fun (and sometimes enlightening) to listen to others' views. Except Michael Pachter.
 
I once looked at a month of NPD predictions from Divnich, Pachter and the NEOGAF consensus and the margin of error was pretty even. It was a pretty small sample size though. Still pretty impressive for Divnich and Pachter given the complexity of the market.

Many of the industry people mentioned let their own personal biases effect their opinions too much to really be considered good analysts. That goes for many NEOGAF individuals as well.
 
My predictions are always right. Don't pay attention to the fact that most of them are wrong. :(

I called $250.00 on the 3DS, does that count?
 
I am. You don't know this because I have been lurking for over a year, but I have guessed the monthly NPD sales within 250 units for each console every month
 
jason rubin or johnathon blow.

also i don't see what predicting sales figures has anything to do with analyzing an industry. thread should be re-titled "greatest prognosticator" in that case.
 
I haven't read most of this thread, but the one person I find most insightful on the video game market is Iwata. Not sure if he counts though.
 
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