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[onipex]

Considering there's so much stock available in stores, anything less than 300k is going to be an embarrassment.

The amount of stock means shit. There will be a 200-300k drop in sales. Nintendo is not even giving the console a serious push. I haven't seen any ads for it since November. Maybe the 3DS was the same,because some gamers I know from work think that it just came out ( their kids asked for one).

Wait I just saw a Lego City ad while typing this. This game doesn't even have a release date so it is getting a bigger push than the console did.

 

[michaelius]

I can see Aliens and TWD doing decent numbers if Nintendo advertises the uses of the Gamepad for it especially for the potential radar usage in Aliens.

How much is decent ? Because i don't see any meaningfull number of people running to shops for 300$ console to have better radar in Aliens.

 

[Nightstick11]

Repeating what I wrote in a different thread:

The success of the PS2, PS1, XBOX 360 and even PS3 (although your mileage may vary on whether one uses the word success and PS3 together) were essentially the result of strong third-party support.

The Wii turned that on its head. The success of the Wii was being built upon a new audience brought in by a novel and compelling control scheme, despite poor third party support.

For the Wii U to be a success it will need one or both of these things. Given that strong third party support is conspicuously absent, it is essentially relying on the latter - the control scheme - to resonate and attract back that expanded audience.

-----

The entirely plausible scenario wherein the Wii U ends up something like the GameCube is that the control scheme simply doesn't resonate.

So you think it entirely plausible that the Wii U peters out at 22 million over 5 years? I mean, I'm sorry, but I'm not seeing this as a realistic scenario whatsoever.

What I'm seeing is the Wii U as the fourth system in a row that is driven strongly--overwhelmingly-- by first-party support.

The Wii and DS were mega-successes, while the 3DS is a strong platform as well. Do I expect the Wii U to top the Wii, no, but given the examples I cited, I think "no third-party support= Dreamcast" is utterly farcical.

 

[pieatorium]

So you think it entirely plausible that the Wii U peters out at 22 million over 5 years? I mean, I'm sorry, but I'm not seeing this as a realistic scenario whatsoever.

What I'm seeing is the Wii U as the fourth system in a row that is driven strongly--overwhelmingly-- by first-party support.

The Wii and DS were mega-successes, while the 3DS is a strong platform as well. Do I expect the Wii U to top the Wii, no, but given the examples I cited, I think "no third-party support= Dreamcast" is utterly farcical.

What about no third party support = Gamecube

 

[Shao Kahn Brewing a Stew]

According to Wikipedia the Gamecube launch in the US:

All-Star Baseball 2002
Batman: Vengeance
Crazy Taxi
Dave Mirra Freestyle BMX 2
Disney's Tarzan Untamed
Luigi's Mansion
Madden NFL 2002
NHL Hitz 20-02
SSX Tricky
Star Wars Rogue Squadron II: Rogue Leader
Super Monkey Ball
Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 3
Wave Race: Blue Storm

Wow. Kickass lineup.

 

[Hero]

The Gamecube had Pikmin and Super Smash Bros. Melee two weeks after launch, which probably accounted for a significant percentage of those sales. Also, Super Monkey Ball and Rogue Squadron were fucking awesome. Still are.

Wii U launch software is very mediocre in terms of excitement since the majority are ports and late ones at that. NSMB U, Nintendo Land, Zombi U and Scribblenauts Unlimited are the only real compelling pieces of software.

 

[Saty]

So what's the excuse for ppl not getting ZombiU? It should have been a close second to NSMBU in sales but it's way behind.
Exclusive; uses the 2nd screen as much as you could; positive player impressions.

 

[archnemesis]

So what's the excuse for ppl not getting ZombiU? It should have been a close second to NSMBU in sales but it's way behind.
Exclusive; uses the 2nd screen as much as you could; positive player impressions.

I didn't get it because I'm tired of zombies and the screenshots, trailers, and video reviews of the game have failed to impress me. The impressions I've heard from other players have been mixed. I might pick it up if I can find it in a bargain bin.

 

[Rhindle]

I think what this means is that many or most WiiUs were purchased as gifts, and hence with no software attached. It's hard to imagine that people buying a system for themselves would purchase less than one game on average.

That obviously does not bode well for hardware sales in coming months.

 

[archnemesis]

I primarily got my system for playing Wii games so I'll probably not get many Wii U games this first year. Normally I'm willing to buy a few mediocre launch games just to see what the system is capable of, but with the graphics being on about the same level as the 360/PS3 there isn't much of an incentive for me to buy the launch games. Especially when I have a stack of Wii games waiting to be played. I might pick up The Wonderful 101, Bayonetta 2 or Dragon Quest X, but otherwise I'm not that interested in anything that has been announced yet.

 

[cws]

Way more competition nowadays than we had with Cube or Wii launches, also the platform itself is way more expensive meaning less money for software purchases.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

So what's the excuse for ppl not getting ZombiU? It should have been a close second to NSMBU in sales but it's way behind.
Exclusive; uses the 2nd screen as much as you could; positive player impressions.

There's been a lot of love for the game among fans, but it's worth remembering that a lot of the early word was rather mixed.

 

[shinra-bansho]

So you think it entirely plausible that the Wii U peters out at 22 million over 5 years? I mean, I'm sorry, but I'm not seeing this as a realistic scenario whatsoever.

What I'm seeing is the Wii U as the fourth system in a row that is driven strongly--overwhelmingly-- by first-party support.

The Wii and DS were mega-successes, while the 3DS is a strong platform as well. Do I expect the Wii U to top the Wii, no, but given the examples I cited, I think "no third-party support= Dreamcast" is utterly farcical.

The Wii was driven by Wii Sports. In that regard, sure, it was driven by first-party support... targeted at bringing in a different audience than prior consoles.

I think it's entirely plausible that the expanded audience that drove the Wii's success ultimately does not find the USP of the Wii U compelling. I don't see why one would consider this an implausible suggestion.

Nintendo's first party titles will sell. They will sell well. And they will sell systems to an extent. They cannot, however, in themselves sustain a home console system aimed at the traditional gaming demographics. The Wii did not sell so well because of NSMB; NSMB sold so well because of the Wii. The Wii did not sell so well because of Mario Kart; Mario Kart sold so well because of the Wii. The Wii did not sell so well because of Smash Bros; Smash Bros sold so well because of the Wii.

The GameCube is an example of what happens without that expanded audience and without third party support.

 

[JohnDonut]

I have not gotten a wii u because right now and not even next year there's either:

No games I'm interested in now
no games I'm interested in next year

I don't want to buy a console for yet another fps, or a remake of another 2d platformer or a port I already have on either my pc or another console. It just isn't interesting or worth $600 of my dollars.

Gimmicks do not sell me either. Waggle controls and the such are not something I care about.

 

[hydragonwarrior]

I think B is what will happen... I just don't see it as cause for concern, per se.
What's so bad about finishing 2nd or 3rd in North America (1st in Japan) with a Nintendo IP driven platform and non-existent 3rd party support?
I loved my Gamecube. It's not such a bad fate.

It will make a profit in the B scenario.
It will supplement a very strong 3DS lineup in the B scenario.
And so long as people purchased the WiiU with sound expectations instead of depending on it as their solitary console platform with healthy 3rd party support, they should be happy with it.

What often leads to "doom and gloom" threads isn't that these systems are failing.
It's that they fail to strive for and/or achieve some misplaced expectations for the hardware that it never realistically had a chance of attaining in the first place.
I believe that even the Vita can be a "success in the shadow of the 3DS" even if it clearly won't be as big of one.
It's all about adjusting one's expectations.

My problem is that I'd still have to buy that second console then...

 

[AOC83]

The Wii was driven by Wii Sports. In that regard, sure, it was driven by first-party support... targeted at bringing in a different audience than prior consoles.

I think it's entirely plausible that the expanded audience that drove the Wii's success ultimately does not find the USP of the Wii U compelling. I don't see why one would consider this an implausible suggestion.

Nintendo's first party titles will sell. And they will sell systems to an extent. They cannot, however, in themselves sustain a system aimed at the traditional gaming demographics.

The GameCube is an example of what happens without that audience and without third party support.

The Gamecubes third party support wasn´t (sure it didn´t come close to PS2 and XBox)that bad altogether. It got plenty of ports, a luxury the WiiU won´t have, as there is pretty much zero reason to bring a port to the WiiU if Nintendo doesn´t pay for it. The sales are abysmal, even for a Nintendo platform.

Everything depends on how fast Nintendo reacts now. They need games, they need pricecuts, they need improved marketing and they need to fix the broken stuff (account system, OS etc.). Anyway i don´t expect them to sell much more than with the N64 when all is said and done.

 

[T'Zariah]

Considering what happened with the 3DS last year compared to where it is now. I'm hesitant to call the Wii U "dead".

I mean, once a Super Smash Bros is announced it's going to come surging back. I can almost guarantee that.

Seems a lot of you are jumping the gun a bit too early. System's only been out for two months. It'll pick up in time. It's the Nintendo way.

 

[SuicidalSteve]

Was there a recession during the launch of these consoles?

 

[MrHicks]

I mean, once a Super Smash Bros is announced it's going to come surging back. I can almost guarantee that.

yea because the housewives who made the wii such a success love them some smash bros

 

[AOC83]

yea because the housewives who made the wii such a success love them some smash bros

People seem to forget that the Gamecube barely broke 20 million worldwide with games like Mario Kart, Smash Brothers etc.

 

[Rhazer Fusion]

Serious question. What are all of those people doing with their Wii U's if they are not buying majority of the games? Nintendo TV, Netflix, first party titles? I know a lot of people who buy PS3 and X360's primarily for Netflix for some peculiar reason, but are Wii U buyers doing the same?

 

[Amir0x]

Where do you get your information from? I would like to see a source on this because all of the information I could dig up specifically state that their reporting DOES NOT include digital sales.

http://m.tomshardware.com/news/NPD-Numbers-Gaming-Hardware-Software-Down,20404.html (sorry for the mobile link)

Passing on misinformation isn't cool.

NPD Teaming Up with EEDAR to Track Digital Sales

And the quote

"With the rapid growth occurring on digital platforms, the importance of measuring and understanding the factors which contribute to the financial success of a product is a key initiative EEDAR is developing solutions for," said Greg Short, President & CEO, EEDAR. "EEDAR has always sought to embrace relationships that provide strong value to our clients and improve accessibility to key data for decision makers. Our collaborative efforts with The NPD Group will help ensure that our research services will continue to evolve for the needs of the industry while specifically addressing transparency and the identification of success criteria for emerging markets."

I know there is a narrative here that some want to say that there's a huge swath of sales not being counted, and I'd say for Wii U's digital sales that's almost certainly true since they might as well be non-existent at the scale of userbase it currently is at, but NPD does have a few ways they use to extrapolate digital download sales. I'd say from the information we have it's hardly conclusive and they have a long way to go to be the end-all in sales information on that front, but they do it.

 

[Kouriozan]

Lesson learned,

Spoiler

DO NOT

launch a Nintendo console with Mario!

 

[Xater]

Serious question. What are all of those people doing with their Wii U's if they are not buying majority of the games? Nintendo TV, Netflix, first party titles? I know a lot of people who buy PS3 and X360's primarily for Netflix for some peculiar reason, but are Wii U buyers doing the same?

I bought Mario and ZombiU. Now the console is sitting around doing nothing. Probably until the end of February.

 

[Metallix87]

People seem to forget that the Gamecube barely broke 20 million worldwide with games like Mario Kart, Smash Brothers etc.

That was a long time ago, and back then, Sony was in waaay better shape and was the undisputed lord of the console market.

On top of that, isn't Wii Fit U just around the corner? Isn't it possible that will bring back some of the expanded audience? Under two months is too short a time frame to damna system.

 

[Cru Jones]

NPD Teaming Up with EEDAR to Track Digital Sales

And the quote



I know there is a narrative here that some want to say that there's a huge swath of sales not being counted, and I'd say for Wii U's digital sales that's almost certainly true since they might as well be non-existent at the scale of userbase it currently is at, but NPD does have a few ways they use to extrapolate digital download sales. I'd say from the information we have it's hardly conclusive and they have a long way to go to be the end-all in sales information on that front, but they do it.

They track digital sales in aggregate by quarter. We are talking specifically about te DECEMBER npd numbers. The December npd numbers DID NOT track digital sales.

 

[Shin Johnpv]

There are not the same games though.

Where?

 

[Raydeen]

The missus bought me one for Christmas.

It's a nice console, but they needed more to show off the controller.

Aliens: Colonial Marines should have been an exclusive, launch title for that sweet motion tracker love.

Nintendo really need to take a leaf out of MS's book when it comes to securing exclusives. They really did their homework early on....an exclusive Fallout game with awesome Pipboy 3000 in your hands, a built in 3DS/DS emulator that would open up a complete library of new games (dur...two screens?).

Can't help thinking the thing will be a relic in 12 months time once 720 hits. Could go down with the Nintendo VR system as one of their biggest turkeys, but I hope not, as I do like the neato controller.

 

[Mr. Wonderful]

What bothers me is that NintendoLand MSRPs at $60. That's ridiculous to me.

It's too early to say about the Wii U, other than it feels like a Gamecube ATM, but personally I think it's time for a 3DS Lite on the 3DS side. I still maintain that the 3DS badly needs a refresh.

 

[SuperMod]

Nintendo will only sell 24 Million Software Units till the End of March. Everythig is fine...

 

[SuperMod]

Way more competition nowadays than we had with Cube or Wii launches, also the platform itself is way more expensive meaning less money for software purchases.

It is the only next-Gen experience with a year's head start.

 

[Metallix87]

It's too early to say about the Wii U, other than it feels like a Gamecube ATM, but personally I think it's time for a 3DS Lite on the 3DS side. I still maintain that the 3DS badly needs a refresh.

3DS just got the XL for a refresh. This year should help, since Animal Crossing and Pokemon are such big IPs, but the system needs more colors, not another redesign / version.

 

[BruceLeeRoy]

Strangely enough, i have bought more games for the Wii U in it's launch period than i ever did for any console or pc.
And i basicly only bought the system for Nintendo's games and games that utilize the specific controls only achievable with the U Pad. (Like ZombiU)
Could have bought some of these titles for my other systems and probably cheaper, but i chose to go for the Wii U versions because of specific gameplay possibilities.
Got all systems and a powerfull pc so i'm not constricted in any way.
The only dissapointing things for me personaly are the fact that Pikmin 3 wasn't a launch title and the lack of Virtual Console and games in the eshop.
And the Wii-U / Wii interface.... I hoped i could start my Virtual Console games that i purchased for the Wii straight from the Wii U menu instead of having to opening up the Wii channel. (and be able to play them on the pad, duh)
I don't understand this logic.
Even if it's hardware or software related, the ineffeciency boggles my mind.....
And why not combine all 3 different shops (Wii, Wii U, 3DS) to one specific account and shop?
I realy dig the machine and the purchased software, but ;

Who in the hell thought Wii U was a good name marketing wise?
Who is in charge of product awareness and publicity?
Who is in charge of the technical department, responsible for hardware configuration?
Wich third party software/game developers did Nintendo aproach regarding hardware configuration and what have they done with their advice?

Console Launch Lunacy is a medical condition that you should look into treating.

 

[SykoTech]

The quality of the software is 'far behind launch levels for Gamecube (especially) and Wii', so I guess it's only fitting that their sales match that.

Hope they can turns things around, but that won't be too soon given what's on the horizon.

 

[Version 3.0]

What about no third party support = Gamecube

Actually, the Gamecube had great third-party support for the first few years. That is to say, there really weren't any 2-system releases (PS2/Xbox), they were all 3-system releases. That changed, of course, by the end of the gen, but originally it was right there.

The Wii U, at the moment, is much more comparable to the N64 or Dreamcast. It seems that there being a Wii U version of a game will be the exception rather than the rule.

 

[farnham]

What about no third party support = Gamecube

wii had poor third party support too..

also i think nintendo might have a much better situation in japan then in NA or europe. without vita not being a viable platform anytime soon devs might opt for WiiU games. who knows.

 

[Brickhunt]

I'll be honest, I don't have any hope of decent 3rd party for the Wii U. I think it's pretty much a hopeless situation where the best situation is that some ports manage to find their way to the console. By I don't have much hope for the AAA 3rd party games that will come for future consoles.

However, I am worried about how lackluster Nintendo 1st party support seems. I say that because I know they must have AAA 1st party titles in development, the problem is that we don't know when they'll come out and I don't think Nintendo can afford to keep their strategy of only showing titles they'll release in the space of six months.

At least with the Wii, at it's launch I already knew Metroid Prime 3, Mario Galaxy and Super Smash Bros Brawl, my personal system sellers, were coming, so that's why I decided to buy the Wii earlier. With Wii U, they have wonderful 101 and Pikmin 3, probably very good games, but not to the point of making me buy the system now.

This E3, not only Nintendo needs to show AAA games for the second half of the year, they need to show other games coming for 2014 too.

 

[farnham]

I'll be honest, I don't have any hope of decent 3rd party for the Wii U. I think it's pretty much a hopeless situation where the best situation is that some ports manage to find their way to the console. By I don't have much hope for the AAA 3rd party games that will come for future consoles.

However, I am worried about how lackluster Nintendo 1st party support seems. I say that because I know they must have AAA 1st party titles in development, the problem is that we don't know when they'll come out and I don't think Nintendo can afford to keep their strategy of only showing titles they'll release in the space of six months.

At least with the Wii, at it's launch I already knew Metroid Prime 3, Mario Galaxy and Super Smash Bros Brawl, my personal system sellers, were coming, so that's why I decided to buy the Wii earlier. With Wii U, they have wonderful 101 and Pikmin 3, probably very good games, but not to the point of making me buy the system now.

This E3, not only Nintendo needs to show AAA games for the second half of the year, they need to show other games coming for 2014 too.

i really think that there will be some support in japan. the situation for many smaller devs and publishers is so dire and they have lost the psp option too. it will be either psp, wiiu or 3ds for them with psp fading out (well wiiu could turn into a vita level disaster in japan, i doubt it though).

 

[Version 3.0]

wii had poor third party support too.

Technically, that's not true. The Wii had poor quality 3rd party support, I'm sure we can all agree. But from a numbers standpoint, it technically had a huge amount of exclusive game support (mostly shovelware or stuff that didn't sell...or both).

But it never had bare shelves, and it wasn't until late in its life that it had a bare release schedule. The Wii U already has both of those problems.

 

[farnham]

Technically, that's not true. The Wii had poor quality 3rd party support, I'm sure we can all agree. But from a numbers standpoint, it technically had a huge amount of exclusive game support (mostly shovelware or stuff that didn't sell...or both).

But it never had bare shelves, and it wasn't until late in its life that it had a bare release schedule. The Wii U already has both of those problems.

if shovelware devs are going to develop games they are going to do it for wiiu... (kinda sad but yeah)

 

[Vane_MagicCity]

I primarily got my system for playing Wii games so I'll probably not get many Wii U games this first year. Normally I'm willing to buy a few mediocre launch games just to see what the system is capable of, but with the graphics being on about the same level as the 360/PS3 there isn't much of an incentive for me to buy the launch games. Especially when I have a stack of Wii games waiting to be played. I might pick up The Wonderful 101, Bayonetta 2 or Dragon Quest X, but otherwise I'm not that interested in anything that has been announced yet.

What was your incentive to buy the WiiU in the first place, Wii games can be played for much cheaper on the Wii.

 

[archnemesis]

What was your incentive to buy the WiiU in the first place, Wii games can be played for much cheaper on the Wii.

I thought it would be nice with a HDMI connection and an improved OS with better online functionality. Having the possibility to play Wii U exclusives was also a plus. Unfortunately downloadable games are still tied to the physical console and the OS is slow as hell. I hope they can fix that with a patch. The PS3's OS used to be quite bad in the early days, but after a few years they fixed most of my issues with it.

 

[Vane_MagicCity]

I thought it would be nice with a HDMI connection and an improved OS with better online functionality. Unfortunately downloadable games are still tied to the physical console and the OS is slow as hell. I hope they can fix that in patch. The PS3's OS used to be quite bad in the early days, but after a few years they fixed most of my issues with it.

Do Wii games look any better over HDMI?

 

[archnemesis]

Do Wii games look any better over HDMI?

Yes, you get a sharper image from a digital signal. Analog connections are horrible for video.

The games are still rendered at the same low resolution, so you don't get the same quality as you would from running them on the Dolphin emulator. Luckily I'm ordering a new gaming computer next week. I'll probably still prefer using the Wii U since that doesn't require careful configuration or troubleshooting, but it's nice to have options.

 

[Rollo Lawson]

Can't say it doesn't hurt a little to see Nintendo going through this...

 

[Forsaken82]

That does not bode very well for the future, the next-gen consoles are going to release in 2013 (at least one of them) only making it harder for the system to exist.

yeah because a $100 dollar price cut will do nothing for the Wii U in terms of sales when the 720/PS4 releases.

Spoiler

you know it will happen

 

[Vane_MagicCity]

Yes, you get a sharper image from a digital signal. Analog connections are horrible for video.

The games are still rendered at the same low resolution, so you don't get the same quality as you would from running them on the Dolphin emulator.

How about Virtual Console games, same improvement?

 

[archnemesis]

How about Virtual Console games, same improvement?

Technically, yes. You will often get a soft unfocused look from using the standard Wii composite video cable. However, many old games are designed with the inherent flaws of CRT TVs in mind (like scanlines) and many players actually prefer to play them on old TVs instead of having the sharp image of a modern 1080p flatscreen.

 

[Vane_MagicCity]

Can't say it doesn't hurt a little to see Nintendo going through this...

Nintendo seems to put out the best games when they are not on top. The SNES apparently was behind the Genesis for most of the 16 bit era and look at the games. The N64 and Gamecube saw some of the best first party games. The Wii, in my opinion, saw great franchises ruined (Zelda, Metroid, Paper Mario, Mario Party, Mario Kart).

 

[Vane_MagicCity]

Technically, yes. You will often get a soft unfocused look from using the standard Wii composite video cable. However, many old games are designed with the inherent flaws of CRT TVs in mind (like scanlines) and many players actually prefer to play them on old TVs instead of having the sharp image of a modern 1080p flatscreen.

You know what's strange? I hooked up my old SNES over the weekend (the original model with S-Video) and it looks fantastic on my Bravia 1080p tv. I put in A Link to the Past and the colors are so vibrant that it looks better than the Virtual Console version of the game. It runs full screen but it doesn't look stretched. It has me scratching my head because a few weeks ago I hooked up my N64 and it looked terrible.