Well, it is hard, because all we have to go on right now is the Wii U's hardware numbers and it's games sales, for 2 months. But, if the Wii U hardware and game sales numbers continue to decline and the other two next gen consoles release to similar hardware and game sales, then the games industry is going to be in a lot of trouble.
Honestly, all we can really do is speculate since we won't really know how the market will react to the other two consoles until they release.
I think, however, that people will be more likely to upgrade to a next gen console when they see awe inspiring games that they don't think are technically possible on PS3/360 and I'm not sure yet that the Wii U will be able to provide that.