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Pachterdamus

As Nintendo releases its third quarter financial results for 2012-2013, it has had to cut its Wii U sales forecast and industry analyst Michael Pachter believes this is evidence that Nintendo has miscalculated with its new console.

“I always thought Nintendo’s Wii U software forecast made no sense,” explains the Wedbush Securities analyst of Nintendo’s financial results.

“They initially guided 24 million, are taking that down to 16 million, which is a 4:1 software attach rate. That’s reasonable, especially given that the installed base is 3 million hardware units now and the guidance implies they need to ship only 4.31 million more software units.”
 
But Pachter goes as far to say that the disappointing hardware sales won’t be relieved unless Nintendo cuts the price of the Wii U.

“The hardware guidance is disappointing, and there isn’t really anything that will get hardware moving other than a price cut. I think they got it wrong with this console, it just doesn’t capture the imagination the way that the Wii did.”

Unsurprisingly, Pachter’s not optimistic when it comes to the future of Nintendo’s Wii U, especially when Microsoft and Sony’s new consoles arrive on the scene, and he paints a bleak picture.

“The Wii U is not going to be very competitive if Sony and Microsoft launch comparable consoles at comparable prices,” explained Pachter.  
“The early weakness will cause many third party publishers to re-think support for the Wii U, and we might not see much support at holiday 2013.”

http://www.nowgamer.com/news/1789047/wii_u_nintendo_got_it_wrong_with_this_console_pachter.html

 

[OldJadedGamer]

Pachter is never right when it comes to hardware. Insert 3DS is underpriced comment here:

 

[Porcile]

Way too early to call.

 

[Chanser]

Pachter really is Mr Obvious. Anyway Nintendo will survive no matter what.

 

[VeryGooster]

Pachter is the Skip Bayless of whatever it is Pachter does.

 

[RoKKeR]

At this point I agree, but Nintendo needs more time.

 

[JordanLMiller]

I guess we weren't ready for a wii hd after all...

 

[whatevermort]

Honestly: stop giving this shyster space. He only exists to say this stuff as long as people report it, and it's rarely based on anything other than bullshit.

 

[AniHawk]

he's mostly right. i don't think that the new systems will be competitively priced though, especially if/when the wii u gets down to $250.

 

[fly high ~ayunite~]

Nintendo just step up its pussy game. We'll see at E3.

 

[GulAtiCa]

So Wii U Ultra HD 2015?

 

[Majine]

Great news for Nintendo.

 

[meltingparappa]

This is like... the tenth article in seven days where Pachter has repeated this.

It's like 2006 all over again!

 

[BY2K]

Just wait until you see Panic Mode Nintendo at E3.

 

[Mr E.]

He should make a console, it would be awesome.

 

[Guevara]

tablet controller was a bad idea

 

[JohnTinker]

Pachter is the Skip Bayless of whatever it is Pachter does.

Man that's really harsh

 

[maquiladora]

 

[miksar]

Wii U is much better hardware-wise than Wii, it needs right marketing and games.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

This is like... the tenth article in seven days where Pachter has repeated this.

It's like 2006 all over again

In 2006 he said PS3 would be the run away winner of the generation and Wii would be lucky to get 10% of the market.

 

[Gannd]

I think the system does need a price drop but I think the next systems from Sony and Microsoft are going to be $400 and $500 depending on what's in the box.

 

[Hot Coldman]

he's mostly right. i don't think that the new systems will be competitively priced though, especially if/when the wii u gets down to $250.

When that'll be seems to be a tricky thing to predict, though. It can't be any time soon, surely. I think they're aware that there's no point dropping the price before their big hitters are out, anyway.

 

[Radec]

Give it a year ffs.

 

[mentalfloss]

Wii U will be a resounding success.

 

[Pachterballs]

I guess we weren't ready for a wii hd after all...

Came too late if anything, pachter wanted wiiHD sooner

Wii U will be a resounding success.

More like a middling success. Resounding? That's not going to happen

 

[Dynamite Shikoku]

Nintendo should just go back and make a regular console with a regular controller and sell it cheap. People will buy them just for the nintendo games. I think noone really cares about controller gimmicks.

 

[ASIS]

Wii U is much better hardware-wise than Wii, it needs right marketing and games.

As far as specs? yes. but design and controller wise? Not completely sure.

 

[Darth]

Way too early. They put out some killer must have titles and people will buy it.

 

[Anth0ny]

he's mostly right. i don't think that the new systems will be competitively priced though, especially if/when the wii u gets down to $250.

I'm thinking PS4/720 launch at $399

Can't imagine Wii U will stay at $299/$349 if that's the case.

 

[Interceptor]

Wedbush got it wrong with this “analyst“.

 

[Mr E.]

In 2006 he said PS3 would be the run away winner of the generation and Wii would be lucky to get 10% of the market.

Throw out enough shit and something will stick. He must get something right in the end.

 

[Gannd]

Nintendo should just go back and make a regular console with a regular controller and sell it cheap. People will buy them just for the nintendo games. I think noone really cares about controller gimmicks.

100 million Wii owners say otherwise.....

The Wii U isn't selling that poorly. It's just not doing as well as the Wii. I still think Nintendo should drop the basic bundle and cut the price of the deluxe to $250. That's the sweet spot.

 

[pvpness]

Hmm. Being a realist I never expected actual 3rd party support for the enthusiast gamer on Nintendo's new console but this,

“The early weakness will cause many third party publishers to re-think support for the Wii U, and we might not see much support at holiday 2013.”

means that I should probably reconsider my stance. What's stronger in the industry? 3rd parties will to avoid Nintendo, or Pachter's ability to predict the complete opposite of what actually happens?

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Pachter thinks Wii U will sell out until March 2013 (or he did a few months ago)

The Wii U will ship in two flavors: a $299 “Base” version and a $349 “Deluxe” version. Regarding the price, Pachter said that he “thinks Nintendo is pricing it right” and that Nintendo has “fervent fans who will buy at this price”. He also predicts that the Wii U will see a price cut in 2013.

On the games side, Pachter was equally impressed. He said that third party support for the Wii U was “pretty solid”, and Nintendo titles looked “high quality”. He also believes that Activision’s support of the Wii U with a lot of casual titles (sans Black Ops 2), signals that “they think the Wii U market is casual”.

 

[meltingparappa]

Way too early. They put out some killer must have titles and people will buy it.

I wish Nintendo announced a ton of new games that appealed to the hardcore crowd in a way the Wii didn't, including a bunch that will be showcased at E3. Maybe Pachter would change his prediction a little bit, if such a thing ever existed in some way that was Direct from Nintendo.

 

[PRjumpman124]

I think it's just a tad bit early to say third parties will abandon the console by the holidays, but then again I'm no analyst.

 

[TalesOfWin]

Wedbush got it wrong with this “analyst“.

why am I always reading this as web bush.

 

[AniHawk]

Pachter thinks Wii U will sell out until March 2013 (or he did a few months ago)

maybe pachter is trying to create a time paradox with his always wrong powers.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

Wedbush got it wrong with this “analyst“.

I'm no fan of Pachter's public face, but it's worth nothing that this is not what he does for Wedbush.

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

Well I do believe they got it wrong by putting the focus on the Gamepad. It doesn't do much of anything for me and most games will fail to utilize it in any meaningful way.

 

[Herb Alpert]

Vultures incoming!!

Wasn't he saying the otherwise few months ago?

I'm astonished as how this guy got his pay... Does really people (I mean investors, his primary target) listen to him?

 

[Red Chocobo]

I've never seen so many doom and gloom predictions so early in a consoles life :/

 

[Subtle]

Pachter really is Mr Obvious. Anyway Nintendo will survive no matter what.

No way. Everything he says turns out to be the opposite.

 

[AniHawk]

I'm thinking PS4/720 launch at $399

Can't imagine Wii U will stay at $299/$349 if that's the case.

yeah i think it'll be around $249.99/$299.99 before the year is out, with some big game to push it along (like a mario kart). i think it'd do well at that price.

 

[ASIS]

Vultures incoming!!

Wasn't he saying the otherwise few months ago?

I'm astonished as how this guy got his pay... Does really people (I mean investors, his primary target) listen to him?

This is not his primary job, I still don't understand what makes him so popular.

Anyway, I actually agree with him. I'm not sure if the Wii U really is the right console for Nintendo.

 

[JDSN]

I hope you Nintendo babies are happy about this, you created this troll.

 

[Nekofrog]

A broken clock is right twice a day. Wonder what his next correct statement will be.

 

[Gannd]

I'm thinking PS4/720 launch at $399

Can't imagine Wii U will stay at $299/$349 if that's the case.

I think they'll have their low end bundle at $399 with the "real" model at $499. If the Wii use is $100/$150 less than that they'll be okay. I think Nintendo should be really aggressive and sell the deluxe model at $250.

 

[Twilight Princess]

So Nintendo got it right?

 

[Sean]

I think Pachter is right on this one.

The Wii U isn't going to capture the casual market again, and they're probably not going to capture the hardcore market with 'last-gen' visuals, the worst online network of the bunch, and lack of third party support. Just a poorly thought out console IMO.

I still think it can be a success and sell a decent amount of units after a price drop & some first party exclusives. And it'll be profitable and all that. But it's not going to be another repeat of the Wii.