Support NeoGAF

[pelican]

lets see if this is true after wii fit u and wii party u has launched right?

I don't think the Wii Fit bubble will happen again. There are many other alternatives for the ladies to gain some fitness. Especially if it requires them to spend another £250 on a console.

Wii Party U. Again it might be fun, but will it convince a family to invest and purchase a console? Probably not if their Wii was only used once or twice a year during Christmas.

I think it is safe to say that the casual market bubble is burst. It was a one in a life time success story for Nintendo, but the dream of "smiles" is gone. Do I want the Wii U to succeed? Of course I bought one at launch. But if I am honest I'll be perfectly happy if it doesn't match the Wii level of casual hysteria.

I bought a Wii U for Zombi U (great game), and upcoming Nintendo exclusives. I don't care if 3rd party ports of upcoming Next Gen games don't appear on it. That is why I will be buying a xbox/ps4 and keeping my PC upgraded.

 

[overcast]

So many Wii U articles.

 

[Arkam]

I think they'll have their low end bundle at $399 with the "real" model at $499. If the Wii use is $100/$150 less than that they'll be okay. I think Nintendo should be really aggressive and sell the deluxe model at $250.

While i do think that is the pricepoint they need to be at I have my doubts they will eb taht aggressive. I would like to be wrong and see a 2nd ambassador program with some free N64/GC VC games

 

[Tookay]

Look how many developers have been dissolved this gen. Imagine next gen. The WiiU will and should be a system where small developers (small compared to next gen dev teams) can thrive

We had this situation this generation with development costs and the Wii/PS3/360.

Publishers bet on the HD consoles anyway, to their peril.

And the ones who didn't went to handhelds/phones.

Nintendo's consoles just exists in some no man's land.

 

[SmokedMeat]

people have to look at development costs. The next xbox and ps4 are going to have huge budgets for their games.

But a developer can release that game across three platforms (PS4, 720, PC) that the audience that buys their games own.
Sounds better than developing for a single platform (unless they're porting to 360 and PS3) where the audience lacks.

 

[pelican]

The lack of must-buy first party software until at least 4 months after launch really hurt, and based off the last Nintendo-Direct I think Iwata/Nintendo realizes this now.

I would agree. The problem for Iwata is no software is current ready to launch. We will hit E3 in just over 4 months and they need to show software. Not software which will be out in 18 months, but software for this year. They need to show Mario/Mario Kart and follow up "out this holiday". Christ they haven't even confirmed a Pikman date yet. It is very possible it will ship after E3.

It is going to be a tough E3 for them otherwise. At least one next gen console is shipping this year and you can bet both MS and Sony will be guns blazing at E3 dropping games.

 

[Whompa]

To be fair, Patcher isn't the only person out there pointing out some things that Nintendo enthusiasts wouldn't like to hear:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/31/technology/nintendo-warns-of-weak-wii-u-sales.html

 

[Schnozberry]

The lack of must-buy first party software until at least 4 months after launch really hurt, and based off the last Nintendo-Direct I think Iwata/Nintendo realizes this now.

Nintendoland is cool but not revolutionary like Wii Sports was. 2D Mario sells a shit-ton but I'm not sure it's truly a system seller like say Kart, Zelda and Smash are. People buy it that already intend to buy a WiiU I feel like. On the other hand the Wii had Twilight Princess and Wii Sports which really was the killer launch duo.

So far the three WiiU games I own are Nintendoland, BLOPS2 and Nano Neo Assault. I'm itching to buy Mass Effect 3, ZombiU and Ass Creed 3 but I'm not going to pay $60 for them.

There's some good looking third-party exclusives coming up within the next two months like Rayman, MH3U, Lego City and what looks like may be the best version of Aliens but none of those are going to be huge system sellers.

Next time Nintendo needs to launch with major first party software ready to go at least one every month after launch. In this case that means they probably should've launched WiiU the month before Pikmin 3 was ready to go.

I saw Mass Effect 3 Wii U on clearance at Target here in MN. It was like $20.

 

[pvpness]

We had this situation this generation with development costs and the Wii/PS3/360.

Publishers bet on the HD consoles anyway, to their peril.

And the ones who didn't went to handhelds/phones.

Nintendo's consoles just exists in some no man's land.

Pretty much. I struggle figuring out why people don't understand this yet. I mean... it's been 20 years...

I saw Mass Effect 3 Wii U on clearance at Target here in MN. It was like $20.

$20 is what the pile should have launched at.

 

[Tookay]

I could see disagreeing with farnham's position but this post comes off as extremely out of touch.

How? I don't think it's difficult to see that fact that the "Wii _____" ship has sailed. WiiFit+ didn't set the world on fire; nor did Wii Party. The crowd that bought WiiFit in the first place aren't even here yet for the Wii U; they had to get roped in with Wii Sports first. Then momentum happened.

None of those factors are present this time.

 

[TalesOfWin]

Was BF4 every actually confirmed for the U? I'm a huge Battlefield fan and would be surprised if that announcement got away from me. Command window on the gamepad would be ace!

John Riccitiello confirmed Battlefield for the Wii U 1.5 years ago.

EA's CEO John Riccitiello has confirmed that among others, Battlefield will be arriving on NIntendo's upcoming console Wii U.

This new partnership between EA and Nintendo is just the first step in a new generation of what could be perceived as 'adult' titles from various developers such as 'Batman Arkham', 'Assassin's Creed' and of course 'Battlefield'.

The console will use the full power of the Battlefield Frostbite engine and will be able to handle the HD graphics we've come to expect from the Battlefield series. The CEO also confirmed that EA Games would embrace Nintendo's open online functionality and of course the new controller utilizing all it's functions such as an accelerometer and 6" touchscreen display.

http://www.t3.com/news/battlefield-on-wii-u-confirmed

 

[Schnozberry]

To be fair, Patcher isn't the only person out there pointing out some things that Nintendo enthusiasts wouldn't like to hear:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/31/technology/nintendo-warns-of-weak-wii-u-sales.html

That article seems based off of Pachter's opinion.

 

[Criminal Upper]

Wii U confirmed to be most successfull entertainment product of all time.

 

[Diablos54]

But a developer can release that game across three platforms (PS4, 720, PC) that the audience that buys their games own.
Sounds better than developing for a single platform (unless they're porting to 360 and PS3) where the audience lacks.

But it's going to be a rough start, nether Orbis/Durango are going to burst out of the gate (Unless the pricepoint is really good), that coupled with even higher dev costs doesn't bode well for 3rd parties IMO. Of course they'll do what they did last gen, and keep plugging away while ignoring Nintendo and it'll work out for them eventually.

 

[Porcile]

Nintendo aren't going to cut the price until next year. Why cut it now, when there aren't any games anyway? They're making a loss as it is, why make it an even bigger loss if there aren't any software sales to balance it out. At the moment they make a small profit with one software purchase. In Fall, they'll actually have some high-profile games to release for the thing and in theory hardware sales should pick up too.

 

[Bisnic]

The lack of must-buy first party software until at least 4 months after launch really hurt, and based off the last Nintendo-Direct I think Iwata/Nintendo realizes this now.

Nintendoland is cool but not revolutionary like Wii Sports was. 2D Mario sells a shit-ton but I'm not sure it's truly a system seller like say Kart, Zelda and Smash are. People buy it that already intend to buy a WiiU I feel like. On the other hand the Wii had Twilight Princess and Wii Sports which really was the killer launch duo.

So far the three WiiU games I own are Nintendoland, BLOPS2 and Nano Neo Assault. I'm itching to buy Mass Effect 3, ZombiU and Ass Creed 3 but I'm not going to pay $60 for them.

There's some good looking third-party exclusives coming up within the next two months like Rayman, MH3U, Lego City and what looks like may be the best version of Aliens but none of those are going to be huge system sellers.

Next time Nintendo needs to launch with major first party software ready to go at least one every month after launch. In this case that means they probably should've launched WiiU the month before Pikmin 3 was ready to go.

You do know how unrealistic that sounds right? One major first party game every month after launch? How are they gonna do that? With their secret magic wands?

 

[Schnozberry]

How? I don't think it's difficult to see that fact that the "Wii _____" ship has sailed. WiiFit+ didn't set the world on fire; nor did Wii Party. The crowd that bought WiiFit in the first place aren't even here yet for the Wii U; they had to get roped in with Wii Sports first. Then momentum happened.

None of those factors are present this time.

I think Wii Party has sold 8 million copies lifetime. Wii Fit Plus is somewhere around 20 million.

 

[Tookay]

Nintendo aren't going to cut the price until next year. Why cut it now, when there aren't any games anyway? They're making a loss as it is, why make it an even bigger loss if there aren't any software sales to balance it out. At the moment they make a small profit with one software purchase. In Fall, they'll actually have some high-profile games to release for the thing and in theory hardware sales should pick up too.

They don't. It was a misquote from Reggie.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

That article seems based off of Pachter's opinion.

There's a three paragraph digression into soundbites of Pachter's. The rest was just hard numbers.

 

[pvpness]

John Riccitiello confirmed Battlefield for the Wii U 1.5 years ago.



http://www.t3.com/news/battlefield-on-wii-u-confirmed

Uh oh, my hype just tingled. That would be fucking awesome! I hope nothing has changed. I really want Battlefield to get uber-ridiculously popular and getting it out on all platforms is a part of that. Thanks for the link mate.

 

[Tookay]

I think Wii Party has sold 8 million copies lifetime. Wii Fit Plus is somewhere around 20 million.

You're not using Chartz are you?

 

[MisterHero]

I was banking on the software tie-ratio be be higher just because the hardware wasn't going to move very quickly.

It's arguable that consumer tastes have changed*, but the bad pricing just dilutes any negative feedback.

*Even then, Nintendo knows this and wants casuals to follow their traditional series. NintendoLand was never supposed to be WiiSports, so saying it failed is pointless. Still, they screwed up by not bundling the game with every box.

 

[H_Prestige]

But it's going to be a rough start, nether Orbis/Durango are going to burst out of the gate (Unless the pricepoint is really good), that coupled with even higher dev costs doesn't bode well for 3rd parties IMO. Of course they'll do what they did last gen, and keep plugging away while ignoring Nintendo and it'll work out for them eventually.

This makes no sense and reeks of the nintendo victim card. If ps3/360 publishers are weary of moving to orbis/durango, then the safe thing to do is to still ignore nintendo and just stick with ps3/360. It makes absolutely no sense in shifting development base from ps3/360 to wii u, especially in light of that console's shitty sales. A wii u port here and there to test the waters sounds reasonable though, and that's exactly what some publishers are doing.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

When everyone was saying Microsoft and Sony would unveil new consoles last E3, he said in January of that year that they definitely were not going to be. His analysis of current events is pretty good(although if you're not a Nintendo fanboy, you'd probably come to the same conclusions that he comes to. Not sure why he gets paid for it), but his long range guesses are often way off. He bought into the Wii U hype and said it would be sold out worldwide through April. Wayyyy off there since it never sold out.

He was bullish on 3DS, Vita and Wii U before launch. 3 for 3 so far, let's see how Durango and Orbis go...

 

[The Crimson Kid]

It wouldn't be surprising to see the Wii U get a price cut before the launch of the first true next-gen console if that console has a $400 SKU at launch.

It's clear that the Wii U hasn't had the kind of success out of the gate that Nintendo expected, and unless Sony and MS totally drop the ball with the features offered or the games shown from their new consoles (or they both end up launching at $600+), then the already middling level of hype for the Wii U will drop like a stone. At that point, Nintendo won't have any choice but to drop the price to regain the interest of anyone but the Nintendo fanatics.

 

[Sandfox]

You're not using Chartz are you?

Those numbers are from one of Nintendo's financial reports.

 

[Metroid In A Glass Tube]

I honestly can't see myself getting bored of this system. I'm 30 years old now and my days of sitting infront of the TV for endless hours on the weekend or after work are long since gone sadly.

A steady stream of Pikmin, Xenogears, Dragon Quest and other staples like Zelda/Donkey Kong and Mario are more than enough to keep me as a gamer. I switch off to my PS3 for online stuff like NHL 13 and Mortal Kombat 9.

 

[Diddy Kong]

So Wii-U to have amazing third party support holiday 2013 ? Thanks Pachter

 

[ArkkAngel007]

What's so unreasonable about his comments?

Nothing at all. In fact, his comments are so obvious is that it's not worth discussing the same subject for the upteenth time (which always ends up in a bunch of crap-chucking) that it's just funner to talk about Pachter and joke that his analysis may improve Nintendo's outlook.

In other words, this is for entertainment more-so than serious debate.

Edit: Ah, the poo is already flying.

 

[pelican]

Uh oh, my hype just tingled. That would be fucking awesome! I hope nothing has changed. I really want Battlefield to get uber-ridiculously popular and getting it out on all platforms is a part of that. Thanks for the link mate.

Yeah, but seriously who would buy the Wii U version over the next gen/PC Battlefield 4? Those who don't upgrade straight away are more likely to pick it up for the 360 or PS3.

I doubt BF4 will launch on the Wii U, but even if it does the online community will be tiny.

 

[liger05]

Pachter thinks Wii U will sell out until March 2013 (or he did a few months ago)

Funny how he never seems to say 'I was wrong'

 

[Schnozberry]

You're not using Chartz are you?

No, they are from Wikipedia, who cite Nintendo Financial Reports. They have the PDFs linked there if you want to gander.

 

[Diablos54]

This makes no sense and reeks of the nintendo victim card. If ps3/360 publishers are weary of moving to orbis/durango, then the safe thing to do is to still ignore nintendo and just stick with ps3/360. It makes absolutely no sense in shifting development base from ps3/360 to wii u, especially in light of that console's shitty sales.

Nintendo victim card? The fuck are you on about? All I'm saying is that it's going to be a tough first year or two until the userbase really starts growing. Even if things go wrong, they'll just keep plugging away, like with the PS3 early on last gen. I said nothing about moving from PS3/360 to Wii U only (Why would devs do that when they can just put the games on all 3 systems?). And it's not like 3rd parties haven't ignored Nintendo before when it would have been wise to at least make a good effort to try and cultivate a userbase. I think the bolded says more about you than anything TBH.

 

[Effect]

You do know how unrealistic that sounds right? One major first party game every month after launch? How are they gonna do that? With their secret magic wands?

It is indeed nice to dream that. The only way that could happen is if the final year or two of the previous console sees nothing from Nintendo. They can only develop so many games at a time and these games take time to be developed, especially up the quality standard that Nintendo sets.

Also when has Pachter ever been right about anything regarding Nintendo? Why do people keep posting what he has to say with his track record. Anything he says should have no weight at all even if you want to agree with it. It's been three months as well!

 

[Somnid]

How? I don't think it's difficult to see that fact that the "Wii _____" ship has sailed. WiiFit+ didn't set the world on fire; nor did Wii Party. The crowd that bought WiiFit in the first place aren't even here yet for the Wii U; they had to get roped in with Wii Sports first. Then momentum happened.

None of those factors are present this time.

I'm more referring to his lack of understanding about things non-gamers/casual gamers/soccer moms et-cetera do.

But what planet did you come from? Wii Fit Plus sold over 20 million copies. Even Wii Party sold about 8 million.

 

[pvpness]

Yeah, but seriously who would buy the Wii U version over the next gen/PC Battlefield 4? Those who don't upgrade straight away are more likely to pick it up for the 360 or PS3.

I doubt BF4 will launch on the Wii U, but even if it does the online community will be tiny.

Many of my friends will. I've unsuccessfully tried to convert them to PC gamers for the last 30 years and as such I'm the one that ends up double (or even fucking triple) dips on titles such as Battlefield. I'll be there day one for BF4 on my PC, but a large section of my friends dropped their 360s/PS3s the same day the new hottness (Wii U) hit. I wanna play with them too.

 

[Tookay]

But it's going to be a rough start, nether Orbis/Durango are going to burst out of the gate (Unless the pricepoint is really good), that coupled with even higher dev costs doesn't bode well for 3rd parties IMO. Of course they'll do what they did last gen, and keep plugging away while ignoring Nintendo and it'll work out for them eventually.

It makes sense why they do what they do.

Next-gen development costs a lot of money regardless, whether they do it for Wii U (just like the Wii) or Orbis/Durango/PC (just like the PS3/360/PC). They'd rather reach the audience that's more receptive to their games, coupled with the safety nets developing for multiple similarly-capable systems provide.

It hasn't always worked out for the AA guys, but for the mega-publishers, it's basically either go big or go home.

 

[Schnozberry]

Yeah, but seriously who would buy the Wii U version over the next gen/PC Battlefield 4? Those who don't upgrade straight away are more likely to pick it up for the 360 or PS3.

I doubt BF4 will launch on the Wii U, but even if it does the online community will be tiny.

I would, only because I have a wife and kid who I don't want to fight over TV time if I want to play. Off TV is pretty good for that. Same reason I got BLOPSII on the Wii U. The community is small, you are right about that, but the air doesn't burn acidic with the breath of 20 million dudebros and 13 year olds telling me what they are going to do with my wife when she's dead. So I got that going for me.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

You're not using Chartz are you?

The numbers from those titles were undeniably good. However, I'm as suspicious as you are as to whether or not these product lines have generated any long-term loyalty. I won't be shocked if I'm wrong, but I'm honestly not expecting Wii Fit owners to adopt Wii Fit U en masse, as I think that product line's appeal may stay with the audience that the Wii garnered that probably won't upgrade to the U.

But it's worth waiting until Wii Fit U and some Wii Sports U title comes out before writing them off completely.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

How? I don't think it's difficult to see that fact that the "Wii _____" ship has sailed. WiiFit+ didn't set the world on fire; nor did Wii Party. The crowd that bought WiiFit in the first place aren't even here yet for the Wii U; they had to get roped in with Wii Sports first. Then momentum happened.

None of those factors are present this time.

As of March 31, 2012:

Wii Fit: 22.67 million
Wii Fit Plus: 20.48 million

 

[OldJadedGamer]

Funny how he never seems to say 'I was wrong'

On one of his pac-attack shows he said that he has no clue what he's saying when it comes to hardware and he is always off. It was one of the eariler ones.

 

[liger05]

one thing Pachter did get right if I remember correctly was he did say the Vita was DOA and that has been pretty much the case.

 

[Satchel]

This is just the catalyst Nintendo needed.

Michael will no doubt be getting a big thank you letter.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

one thing Pachter did get right if I remember correctly was he did say the Vita was DOA and that has been pretty much the case.

Only after it flopped in Japan. When $249 E3 happened he was way up on it.

 

[MickeyPhree]

Patcher speaks the truth. Everyone is just too jaded to realize it.

 

[liger05]

Only after it flopped in Japan. When $249 E3 happened he was way up on it.

lol nothing changes then.

 

[Schnozberry]

The numbers from those titles were undeniably good. However, I'm as suspicious as you are as to whether or not these product lines have generated any long-term loyalty. I won't be shocked if I'm wrong, but I'm honestly not expecting Wii Fit owners to adopt Wii Fit U en masse, as I think that product line's appeal may stay with the audience that the Wii garnered that probably won't upgrade to the U.

But it's worth waiting until Wii Fit U and some Wii Sports U title comes out before writing them off completely.

Build a Wii U Golf game that uses both the balance board and the motion plus controller to determine your accuracy, and you'd sell a lot of Wii U's to people who want to improve their game from home.

Edit: To clarify, what I'm getting at is that there are plenty of gimmicks out there to recapture the casuals, Nintendo just needs to find one that can't be replicated immediately by other gaming companies.

 

[Tookay]

I'm more referring to his lack of understanding about things non-gamers/casual gamers/soccer moms et-cetera do.

But what planet did you come from? Wii Fit Plus sold over 20 million copies. Even Wii Party sold about 8 million.

Maybe I should clarify: I'm not talking about the "sales" when it comes to these series' longevity. I'm talking about whether those series have become self-perpetuating reasons in and of themselves to buy a system for most people. I don't think the hype/loyalty is there for that to happen and make owners of it on the Wii jump ship.

Same thing with Nintendogs on the DS to 3DS transition.

Or arguably the NSMBW to NSMBU.

These sorts of titles may sell well, but I don't think it's as easy as taking something that was successful in the past and translating them early into a system's life. Nintendo seems expect lightning to strike twice, as these things will become the system sellers of tomorrow.

But what's needed to rope in casuals is something new, that's completely unexpected, not the things that they have already seen before.

 

[pvpness]

Maybe I should clarify: I'm not talking about the "sales" when it comes to these series' longevity. I'm talking about whether they're reasons in and of themselves to buy a Wii U for most people. I don't think the hype/loyalty is there for that to happen and make owners of it on the Wii jump ship.

Same thing with Nintendogs on the DS to 3DS transition.

Or arguably the NSMBW to NSMBU.

These sorts of titles may sell well, but I don't think it's as easy as taking something that was successful in the past and translating them early into a system's life.

It's not. There are a lot of factors in getting a previous gen owner to jump to the new gen. Pricing is the major one. While there might be a couple people that buy a $350 console for 1 game they are few and far between. It's something that's easy to understand, but a lot of the people here can't really seem to figure it out.

I'm not saying that Pachter's wrong (time will tell), but I will say that this guy makes a living out of throwing shit at the wall and hoping that it sticks. True, that's his job. But his track record isn't exactly something to be proud of.

Alright Pachter, where you at? Clear this up for us. You getting paid (by Wedbush) for your VG predictions these days?

From what I understand, he's still a solid business analyst for Wedbush, but has no vested interest in the VG industy (short of having fun with forumers).

 

[jluedtke]

I'm not saying that Pachter's wrong (time will tell), but I will say that this guy makes a living out of throwing shit at the wall and hoping that it sticks. True, that's his job. But his track record isn't exactly something to be proud of.