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Will MS buy into a formidable JP developer soon?

Y

Yamaha98

Member
I may be thinking 6 months ahead of time if things continue as they are in Japan, but is this an likely scenario? Seriously, lets be reminded of few things......

* X360 is do or bust for the console dept, they yet to post a profit & continue to be in the red

* Japan is, without a doubt, a huge priority for MS now. If they fail here again, it can mean damaging repurcussions elsewhere. Historically, the majority of console titles that sell exceptionally well are made here. The X360 has already suffered from a embrassing launch (worst in my memory) & a single title soon to be released will not carry it on its shoulders. Sorry to say, but poor hardware sales will not look risk-positive in the next-gen when development costs are soaring.

* Exclusivity has eluded MS in markee flagship titles. DOA is no better than VF or Tekken nor do the japanese care for Halo (look @ PDZ). Their lone FF demo has been received w/ lukewarm response & their future lineup releases are not exactly being anticipated w/ much enthusiam.

At this course, w/ the slow sales, looming launches of PS3/Rev & heavy criticism in understand the market- I would not be surprised if MS opens up its big wallet to one of the big JP developers. Square/Enix would be a big coup de ta, but they are too big for any quick takeover to ensure. Sega would be a logical choice but I would guess it maybe complicated w/ the parthnership to Sammy. Konami is too big for any hostile takeover, believe they are Top 3 in JP. Namco would be wise but not as tempting as Capcom. Resident Evil, Devil May Cry, Street Fighter, etc would be a damn nice addition alongside the Bungie & regretable Rare purchases

Though the sights of seeing Resident Evil 5 (X360) on the top list of the Mediacrate numbers cause some GAF'ers to commit seppuku, nothing would really top an controlling interest in Nintendo. I know it sounds impossible, but the big N is a distant 3rd overall & is possibly seeing it's final console released soon. Surely they may end up like their former arch-rival Sega & be 3rd party only w/ huge amounts of profit to swim in but no developer would help MS more than Nintendo & their vast, hugely popular library. It's been a while since MS last bought an developer, their next purchase may indeed be JP to their benefit. Discuss!
 
I'm sure they've been trying.

I know it sounds impossible, but the big N is a distant 3rd overall & is possibly seeing it's final console released soon. Surely they may end up like their former arch-rival Sega & be 3rd party only w/ huge amounts of profit to swim in but no developer would help MS more than Nintendo & their vast, hugely popular library.
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:lol

No.
 
jiggle said:
Should've bought Square.
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I believe they tried to.

Before the Xbox (and a bit during), they tried buying Nintendo, Square, and Sega (I think). They were in negotiations with Nintendo (the bid was $25B when Nintendo declined, Square was around $15B or something crazy like that... I seem to recall someone saying that Sega backed out last-minute, but they had to make a certain number of exclusives instead ... or something).

Anyway, I bet MS has tried to buy at least Namco, Capcom, and/or Konami at one point.
 
AniHawk said:
I believe they tried to.

Before the Xbox (and a bit during), they tried buying Nintendo, Square, and Sega (I think). They were in negotiations with Nintendo (the bid was $25B when Nintendo declined, Square was around $15B or something crazy like that... I seem to recall someone saying that Sega backed out last-minute, but they had to make a certain number of exclusives instead ... or something).

Anyway, I bet MS has tried to buy at least Namco, Capcom, and/or Konami at one point.
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Square was worth 500 million and they set their price at 2 bill. That goes back to what Shane Kim said though. We buy the franchises, and the creative talents goes away. Or funded the talent for exclusive games. You see that with outfits like Bioware's game, Mass Effect, being published by Microsoft, among others

Correction about Square

http://www.redherring.com/Article.aspx?a=4607

Microsoft itself tried to buy Square in 1999, but its then-CEO, Hisashi Suzuki, asked for $2.5 billion for 40 percent of the company, a price that exceeded the entire market capitalization of Square at the time. Then Square's Final Fantasy movie bombed, and Sony bought 19 percent of Square for a mere $125 million last year.
 
Obviously it may be too late w/ the big N since they are on the verge of Rev release & prospering w/ DS. Yet if MS can hang on to make it a 2-party race come 2009- then the scenario of mario & friends on Xbox720 may not seem far fetch. I guess it really depends on how much market they can gain this gen & really.......how will the Rev also fair against Sony/MS. I am not so much sure that Nintendo will get spanked hard by their rivals, but probably enough to decide on future participation in the console war & eventually, their portable dominace will also come to an end eventually. Just like when Mercedes "bought" Chrysler & no one thought it was possible, I believe it will be an likely scenario for the big N in the distant future. As for now, who knows what MS is prying on......
 
They probably tried (Square at least).

MS is in a sucky-sucky situation beacuse:

1) You can't win Japan without Square.
2) You can't win the world without Japan.
 
Really, forget about Nintendo.

They will always make more money than Microsoft in the videogame industry and will never need to go 3rd party on their platform.

Even IF they don't sell a single Revolution next gen they will always have more videogame consumers and make more profit than MS' videogame division.
 
Agent Icebeezy said:
Microsoft itself tried to buy Square in 1999, but its then-CEO, Hisashi Suzuki, asked for $2.5 billion for 40 percent of the company, a price that exceeded the entire market capitalization of Square at the time. Then Square's Final Fantasy movie bombed, and Sony bought 19 percent of Square for a mere $125 million last year.
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Wait a minute, Sony bought into Square? I am guessing this is a minority interest cause otherwise, they would have been no FF demo. How much of that 19% compares to the other shareholders?
 
Yamaha98 said:
Wait a minute, Sony bought into Square? I am guessing this is a minority interest cause otherwise, they would have been no FF demo. How much of that 19% compares to the other shareholders?
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Non-voting stock
 
over the last few years nintendo has bought back a large amount of its stock, to increase its share price and more importantly prevent a hostile takeover. with the last news and amount of shareholders on nintendo's side, including 10% still owned by yamauchi, nintendo is in a very strong position. if ms could've bought nintendo they would have.

so with nintendo out of the running, the usual suspects are square-enix, capcom, konami and maybe sega-sammy but i think ms has seen the problems with buyouts first hand, especially with rare. it comes back to what nintendo has been saying and their unwillingness to buyout a major third party. you're only buying franchises/ips, you can't buy talent. what good is it if ms buys square-enix but all the best talent leaves? ms would've paid billions for the final fantasy and dragon's quest name and financially it just isn't worth it. also ms would have to pay over the odds for any japanese company otherwise shareholders wouldn't agree, given xbox's poor performance in japan.
 
ziran said:
over the last few years nintendo has bought back a large amount of its stock, to increase its share price and more importantly prevent a hostile takeover. with the last news and amount of shareholders on nintendo's side, including 10% still owned by yamauchi, nintendo is in a very strong position. if ms could've bought nintendo they would have.

so with nintendo out of the running, the usual suspects are square-enix, capcom, konami and maybe sega-sammy but i think ms has seen the problems with buyouts first hand, especially with rare. it comes back to what nintendo has been saying and their unwillingness to buyout a major third party. you're only buying franchises/ips, you can't buy talent. what good is it if ms buys square-enix but all the best talent leaves? ms would've paid billions for the final fantasy and dragon's quest name and financially it just isn't worth it. also ms would have to pay over the odds for any japanese company otherwise shareholders wouldn't agree, given xbox's poor performance in japan.
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Exactly, your best bet is to pay a developer to freelance on your system. I'm sure that get costly, but it appears to be the best case scenario
 
I don't think MS will completely buy another developer ever again, that was the Ed Fried times. Now it's more about "strategic" partnerships and helping new and very promising studios like Mistwalker / Q Entertainment and Game Republic.
 
Agent Icebeezy said:
Exactly, your best bet is to pay a developer to freelance on your system. I'm sure that get costly, but it appears to be the best case scenario
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Blimblim said:
I don't think MS will completely buy another developer ever again, that was the Ed Fried times. Now it's more about "strategic" partnerships and helping new and very promising studios like Mistwalker / Q Entertainment and Game Republic.
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i agree.

it's a good strategy. if a partnership works the game series is still exclusive to ms and if it doesn't ms can end the relationship easily.
 
Blimblim said:
I don't think MS will completely buy another developer ever again, that was the Ed Fried times. Now it's more about "strategic" partnerships and helping new and very promising studios like Mistwalker / Q Entertainment and Game Republic.
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Watching Microsoft's moves, it appears are pandering to developer dreams of their own development team. Not just that. I notice that people use existing IP's to make their case for other systems as being stronger. Tomb Raider was still Tomb Raider to the average consumer, but to gamers, it wasn't Tomb Raider because Toby Gard was nowhere to be found. It's like if EA were to resurrect the Ultima franchise. I love the Avatar and the land of Britanna, but if Richard Garriott isn't there, I want nothing to do with it. Those two examples are examples as to why Microsoft hasn't gone after studios like that. Also, back to the existing franchise thing, they are trying to create franchises that grow with the Xbox brand and can be identified with the Xbox. They are after the next big franchise(s).
 
They could purchased a welcomed stake into a publisher like how Sony has stake in Square Enix, however completely buying out a publisher or developer is something I'm sure they'll obviously not go after.

Microsoft might have money, but at the of the end of the day purchasing a large publishers would be too large of a gamble and one thier shareholders might not look too impressed about.

You have remember that most of these publishers whether your talking about Capcom, Konami, Namco, SEGA have multi-billion market caps and attempting to purchase them might be good faith to their shareholders.

BTW, nintendo really was laughing last when they sold rare to microsoft and simpily because MS bought rare for more than thier actual worth.
 
Agent Icebeezy said:
Watching Microsoft's moves, it appears are pandering to developer dreams of their own development team. Not just that. I notice that people use existing IP's to make their case for other systems as being stronger. Tomb Raider was still Tomb Raider to the average consumer, but to gamers, it wasn't Tomb Raider because Toby Gard was nowhere to be found.
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Interesting that you bring up Toby Gard. He a cool person and all, but at the end of the day he's useless to the Tomb Raider franchise considering he barely had nothing to do with franchise other than drawing lara croft's look.

The real credit for the Tomb Raider series belongs to Jeremy and Adrian Smith. They created the series, yet Gard is gets thier credit.
 
I just hope if they end up doing something like this, they make it count. Just so the resulting GAF thread could be historic.
 
I believe MS could have bought a controlling stake in N without asking permission. They did though, which i guess is a small mercy.
 
Andrew2 said:
Interesting that you bring up Toby Gard. He a cool person and all, but at the end of the day he's useless to the Tomb Raider franchise considering he barely had nothing to do with franchise other than drawing lara croft's look.

The real credit for the Tomb Raider series belongs to Jeremy and Adrian Smith. They created the series, yet Gard is gets thier credit.
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Toby was a senior designer and he's been brought back for TR: Legend as a consultant. I think that that would go further than just drawing the game model.
 
I'm more worried about the lack of european first party titles. They said it's the most important market for them yet they dont have any developers outside of UK. UK charts are the same as in the US exept Fifa<->Madden, tastes are different in continental europe.
 
Only two Japanese publishers have IP strong enough that they are worth buying - Nintendo and Square-Enix. M$ could afford both but there's no justification for spending that kind of money just to win Japan.

If DOA4 doesn't move a considerable amount of hardware units when it comes out M$ should just admit defeat and pull the system in Japan. It would be a huge blow to its image in the short term but there's no reason in throwing money after a market that's just not interested in what you have to offer.
 
26 posts & not one flaming to one another, a first in GAF history? Back to topic, who holds more valuable IP......Capcom, Namco or Sega? I am inclined to say Sega, but Capcom has strong presence in foreign markets w/ their fans.
 
cybamerc said:
If DOA4 doesn't move a considerable amount of hardware units when it comes out M$ should just admit defeat and pull the system in Japan. It would be a huge blow to its image in the short term but there's no reason in throwing money after a market that's just not interested in what you have to offer.
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I doubt DOA4 will move heavy numbers, h3ll- they are still sitting on their initial shipment at the retail shelfs. :lol I believe the last figures had it at an almost non-existant 8K moves for the week, damn DS sells just as many in a few hrs. Come spring, if there is no respectful install base in JP- you will probably start to hear doubts behind the curtains. So much for the headstart MS thought was so vital, they are now on track to fall behind again by day1 launch of PS3/Rev.
 
The ultimate tests for MS in Japan will be N3 (for the Dynasty Warrior crowd I guess), and both Mistwalker RPG. If these games get some great scores in Famitsu and do not sell, then MS should just forget about selling anything in Japan.
 
Two weeks after the launch and the death knoll is ringing?
I think we need to give the 360 a little more time before speculation like this starts. The Mistwalker games could carry a lot more weight than people think right now.
 
They need a Japanese "Halo" or killer-app, for sure, but it wouldn't hurt to buy exclusivity of a few titles (Capcom's maybe?) rather than buying out an entire developer. Unless the developer is wholeheartedly for the buyout and major talent won't leave, then it's just not worth the investment. They need great games to move hardware. Otherwise, 360 will fail in Japan.
 
To be dead honest I don't think there's really a lot of room for MS anyway.

Sony is going to sell roughly the same number PS3s as PS2s there.

Nintendo I see really coming on in Japan, however, and driving growth (or bringing people back into gaming in Japan who have quit).

Revolution will be successful there precisely because it's not trying to be similar to the PS3.
 
Jonnyram said:
Two weeks after the launch and the death knoll is ringing?
I think we need to give the 360 a little more time before speculation like this starts. The Mistwalker games could carry a lot more weight than people think right now.
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Definitely, does Japanese advertising allow for them to use "From The Creators of Final Fantasy & Dragonball Z"?
 
They've really been hit or miss with their purchases. On one hand, you've got Bungie which has paid off pretty well. On the other, RARE. Which hasn't. (Not yet, anyways.)
 
I would love to see what would happen if somehow Dragonquest became a Xbox 360 exclusive. Would Japanese heads explode from the paradox?
 
I don't know but I just don't see the 360 ever doing well in Japan. I would be great for more japanese developer support, but I don't see it. Even if they get Squarenix to do the games on both systems. I see the Japanese buying the PS3 version. They seem to e the ultimate fanboys. I hope I'm wrong but I doubt it. Famitsu can give Blue Dragon all 10's. It might move some systems but it will not be in the same area as the PS3.

But if MS did get Squarenix games exclusively...can you imagine? Some people here would kill themselves I bet.
 
You'll probably see a nice spike for 360 sales when some of the Mystwalker games come, like how the XBox spiked whenever a Dead or Alive game would come out.

The problem is, I don't see much changing on the 360 from week-to-week sales where it sells like 5000 units a week or less.

It's already settling into that routine.
 
I think maybe buying Sega when they had the chance would have been worth it for the IP's and the Sega name alone.

With the Sega 360 and all of it's back catalog of SMS and Megadrive games on XBLA it could have been tempting for Japanese consumers.

Or

If the Revolution doesn't do as well as expected maybe work out a deal with Nintendo where Microsoft makes the hardware and sell it under the Nintendo name in Japan (or heck even the rest of the world). Kind of like the deal Nintendo wanted with Atari for the NES.

Another problem that I think hurts MS is that they have no arcade prescence in Japan.

You can't go to arcade and play DOA4 or PGR, something that would develop awareness and a brand loyalty with people who don't want to take a 40,000 yen gamble on buying a system.
 
Jerkface said:
Definitely, does Japanese advertising allow for them to use "From The Creators of Final Fantasy & Dragonball Z"?
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Unfortunately by the time the Mistwalker games are released xbox 360 will have 2 or 3 (excellent?!) japanese RPG and PS3 will have dozens (in development at least).

The ultimate tests for MS in Japan will be N3 (for the Dynasty Warrior crowd I guess), and both Mistwalker RPG. If these games get some great scores in Famitsu and do not sell, then MS should just forget about selling anything in Japan.
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They will probably sell to most xbox 360 owners, but how many will that be by that time? 100k? 200k? 500k?
 
Jerkface said:
Definitely, does Japanese advertising allow for them to use "From The Creators of Final Fantasy & Dragonball Z"?
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I'm pretty sure they won't be able to use "Final Fantasy" in their advertisement, but it might be different in Japan somehow.
 
I doubt Capcom, I don't know where read this but it went something like this in an interview with the head of all R&D Keiji Inafune:

"Microsoft asked to make a game directly suited for the Japanese, but I declined, Capcom's goal is to make games that appeal to everyone."

Not word from word, but same message. So I doubt they would jump shit to MS over even with money-hats involved.
 
We should wait and see what Blue Dragon and Lost Odyssey sales are like first. DOA4 will sell fine but don't expect it to have legs or to even go over the 500k-600k mark.

On a side note, what is the buzz like in Japan for Mistwalker and Sakaguchi's independence? I haven't heard any Japanese reaction about his stance on 360 or his Mistwalker games. Can he provide Final Fantasy size hits with his name alone there?
 
Deadly Monk said:
DOA4 will sell fine but don't expext it to have legs or to even go over the 500k-600k mark.
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I don't think anyone is expecting that. The 360 is currently doing worse than the Xbox did in Japan and the DoA on it didn't get anywhere near 500 or 600k.
 
why? the japanese don't want xboxes and xbots don't want japanese games. they could spend their money more productively. all they need to do is maintain some appearance of japanese support. stay in itagaki's good graces. subsidize individual projects from small developers, like the mistwalker/cavia stuff (though honestly i doubt whether that approach will produce good games). perhaps court capcom, who were so friendly to dreamcast and gamecube.
 
Jonnyram:

> The Mistwalker games could carry a lot more weight than people think right now.

But isn't the first one coming out late next year? By that time PS3 will be out and it probably won't make much of a difference.
 
Haklong said:
I don't know but I just don't see the 360 ever doing well in Japan. I would be great for more japanese developer support, but I don't see it. Even if they get Squarenix to do the games on both systems. I see the Japanese buying the PS3 version. They seem to e the ultimate fanboys. I hope I'm wrong but I doubt it. Famitsu can give Blue Dragon all 10's. It might move some systems but it will not be in the same area as the PS3.

But if MS did get Squarenix games exclusively...can you imagine? Some people here would kill themselves I bet.
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lol, i totally agree. same thing with Dragon Quest which is supposed to be like the biggest game there. if DQ were a MS franchise i just think most people there would say "screw it" & wait for a new franchise on PS to come in.

the 360 is selling ridiculously low over there. i don't think any game could help them there. the japanese just don't want an xbox for whatever reason.
 
DoA4 and its like will create spikes in the 360's sales, but they'll only be spikes. 360 vs. GCN charts will huant GAF for years to come (or until the GCN runs away and the charts become more sad than funny). MS would have to buy every-other Japanese developer in order to see success in Japan. Consumers have no confidence in the system there. The system doesn't need a handful of high-profile titles to get attention, but a steady, constant flow of titles that the people want.

MS really screwed themselves by trying to pull off this world-wide launch. MS had to show strong commitment in Japan to appease the Japanese developers that they hoped to attract. They were basically force to launch with the 150k that they did (any less would make it look like they expected the system to do worse than the original Xbox did). They should have waited until more japanese-specific games were ready. Instead, they've humilated themselves and killed off any real chance they may have had to make a dent in the marketplace there. Personally, I wouldn't be suprised to see several japanese developers quietly canning projects already... I wouldn't even be suprised to see Team Ninja shift platforms.


Still, they can't just pull out of the Japanese market altogether.
 
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