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[alexandros]

Have any of you ever considered that maybe PC manufacturers would stop continually buying Windows licenses if they PCs they're putting them on weren't selling? That maybe your own personal anecdotal experiences aren't actually representative of the reality of the market?

To be fair, usage stats from research firms like Net Applications can't be classified as personal anecdotal experiences. One shouldn't just embrace them when they support his argument and dismiss them when they show something unpleasant. We have Microsoft's numbers, we have research firm numbers, we have OEMs talking about Win8 sales. We should take advantage of all the data at hand to come as close as possible to the truth.

 

[Chance Hale]

Love Windows 8 myself, and can't wait for blue. It's just so much more swift in general and the new shortcuts and task manager are amazing. I've never really used Start that much anyway other than to get to things I forgot to short cut.

 

[plagiarize]

I don't understand why you guys are still arguing about this, the truth is somewhere in the middle. Windows 8 is not a colossal disaster but it's not doing that great either.

nothing like reality to get us all on the same page. i'm glad you posted this thread. I always knew you were rational, and that it was just optimism vs pessimism. and yes, I know you are talking about it's sales performance in the bolded quote

 

[Sethos]

I don't understand why you guys are still arguing about this, the truth is somewhere in the middle. Windows 8 is not a colossal disaster but it's not doing that great either.

Who are you and what have you done with alexandros?

 

[plagiarize]

Who are you and what have you done with alexandros?

He was afraid that Windows 8 would be an unqualified success paving the way for a closed Windows 9. He is a lot less afraid of that now given that it hasn't been an unqualified success and that MS seem to be swinging Windows 8 Blue back towards the desktop even if only a teeny tiny bit.

 

[dLMN8R]

To be fair, usage stats from research firms like Net Applications can't be classified as personal anecdotal experiences. One shouldn't just embrace them when they support his argument and dismiss them when they show something unpleasant. We have Microsoft's numbers, we have research firm numbers, we have OEMs talking about Win8 sales. We should take advantage of all the data at hand to come as close as possible to the truth.

Make sure you put Net Applications' numbers in proper context, since they themselves say you should not directly compare Windows 8's stats to Windows Vista, which many people have done.

http://www.zdnet.com/a-closer-look-at-those-windows-8-and-windows-rt-usage-numbers-7000014817/


It's a fallacy to suggest that all data sources are equally legitimate and should be equally considered.

 

[Etnos]

I was a detractor, but after using it for a couple of months I like it a lot, easily the best Kernel MS has ever done... Gabe's statements were out of proportion really.

In the other hand MS needs to work on metro a lot, if they ever want it to be relevant... it is still very limited for M/Kb users.

 

[Calm Killer]

Although I said I won't make any more Windows 8 threads, it's only fair to post about good news for Microsoft. The Verge has news of the latest Windows 8 licence sales numbers and they're pretty comparable to Windows 7:



In a separate article, again at the Verge, Windows CFO Tami Reller talks about Windows Blue and Microsoft's plans about smaller Windows touch devices. Some good news here, as Microsoft seems to be listening to feedback:



Do follow the links for much more on Windows 8 and Windows 8.1 "Blue". For those who think this should be in Off-Topic, at this point Windows is almost synonymous to PC gaming, it's no more off-topic than talking here about the Xbox OS updates.

Just because they have sold the licenses doesn't mean people have adopted windows 8. Any windows OS license you buy now comes as windows 8 by default. So this number is flawed. I have bought 15 windows 8 license, which happens to be what you have to buy if you want windows 7 license. It is a falsely estimated number...

 

[Etnos]

Just because they have sold the licenses doesn't mean people have adopted windows 8. Any windows OS license you buy now comes as windows 8 by default. So this number is flawed. I have bought 15 windows 8 license, which happens to be what you have to buy if you want windows 7 license. It is a falsely estimated number...

Anyway who is crazy enough to go buy W8 license to use W7 ... I would say not many.

 

[Rourkey]

Suspect sales will should through the roof when they stop supporting XP next year, am I the only one that finds 8 nippier than 7?

 

[maeh2k]

MS is so fucked:

@asymco: In the last 6 months 100 million Windows 8 licenses have been issued and 137 million iOS devices have been sold.

 

[Penguins&PolarBears]

Why do people have so much trouble reconciling market share versus overall sales? Increasing your market share by over .5% every single month as Windows 8 is doing is phenomenal speed. The reason why that share percentage is smaller than Vista's was is because the total PC market grew substantially since the launch of Windows Vista.

The percentage of Win8 can be smaller than Vista even though the overall sales are much higher because the overall PC market increased enormously in the last decade.



One thing that can't be denied at this point is that there is a vocal group of people who are trying very hard to convince everyone that Windows 8 is a flop because they don't personally like it or they don't personally want to see it succeed. And I'm not just talking about forum trolls. Analysts, tech writers, pundits have been working over time to try to portray Windows 8 as some gigantic disaster. It's hard for me to think of any other industry where a company can move 100M units of a product in half a years time and be told that they've "flopped." The goal posts for success of Windows 8 have been moved way past the point of absurdity.

 

[border]

It's hard for me to think of any other industry where a company can move 100M units of a product in half a years time and be told that they've "flopped.".

I can't think of any other industry where a single company has such a monopolistic stranglehold on manufacturers, who almost instantly integrate a new product into virtually every single consumer product line. Let's not pretend that this is the same as selling spark plugs or tennis shoes or something. MS is going to sell 100M licenses as long as PCs are popular. The goal posts are arguably different because the situation is also quite different.

 

[Penguins&PolarBears]

Then why is Windows 8 selling so much faster than Windows Vista?

Microsoft could not move 100M copies of Vista in under 6 months. Vista and Windows ME proves that success is not automatically baked in. It is hyperbole to call something that sells hundreds of millions of units a "flop."

Also the figures about app downloads are key here. Over 60,000 apps published and 250 million app downloads is huge. What developers don't want to be a part of that app store in the future? The main goal of Windows 8 as I always saw it was to establish a successful app store that could compete with iOS and possibly beat it.

 

[LiquidMetal14]

Then why is Windows 8 selling so much faster than Windows Vista?

Microsoft could not move 100M copies of Vista in under 6 months. Vista proves that success is not automatically baked in.

They are practically giving it away.

 

[border]

Then why is Windows 8 selling so much faster than Windows Vista?

Because Windows 8 is not garbage like Vista and they were selling Win8 for a lower price to end-users and OEMs?

Vista is widely considered a flop, yet you could make the same argument as you have "Vista sold xx million units! I can't think of any other industry where you can sell xx million units and be considered a flop!"

With a product like Windows that is guaranteed to sell hundreds of millions, people's definition of a flop has more to do with support, usability, stability, and public response.

 

[Penguins&PolarBears]

They are practically giving it away.

No giving away is Linux which is free. Mac OS which is $30.

Windows 8 upgrades costs $100-$200 for months now.

People are twisting themselves in knots trying to come up with ways to make a 100 million install base in less than 6 months look like a failure. I'm sorry, but the goal was to get the Windows Store platform big as fast as possible and it seems to be working.

Vista is widely considered a flop, yet you could make the same argument as you have "Vista sold xx million units! I can't think of any other industry where you can sell xx million units and be considered a flop!"

With a product like Windows that is guaranteed to sell hundreds of millions, people's definition of a flop has more to do with support, usability, stability, and public response.

Except that Vista actually sold significantly worse than Windows XP at a time where Windows had no competition. Windows 8 is selling as well as the previous version at a time where there is more competition for PCs than ever before.

It is actually a bit hyperbolic to call Vista a "flop" when it sold over 400 million licenses and even today has more market share than any version of Mac OS X. By reasonable standards if Vista is considered an actual flop then every version of Mac OS X ever released was a complete failure. Vista might be a flop by Windows standards, but that's it. Windows 8 isn't even a flop by Windows standards.

Consumer satisfaction is a meaningful metric, I'll admit, but we don't have any of that data on Win8. And I could point to many successful versions of Windows and more recently Android which had relatively low consumer satisfaction. Consumer satisfaction doesn't dictate success otherwise both Android and Windows would have been dead a long time ago. I think Microsoft would gladly trade it's high consumer satisfaction for Windows Phone in favor of Android's sales numbers.

 

[DocSeuss]

Despite the fact that I work on Windows, I'm not actually sure what the main UX team is making here. But I'll tell you what Tami means.

Every designer of every product in every industry, ever, will nod in agreement with the following saying:

"Customers always suggest the wrong solutions to the right problems."


Just because people are confused by Windows 8 now doesn't mean that making it identical to Windows 7 with the Start Menu is the right answer. Perhaps designers and user researchers have found that the Start Screen isn't the problem, it's finding the start screen. If they put a Start Button back but simply have it launch the Start Screen, it probably solves the vast majority of confusion and problems people have. It's an "anchor" for people to find, rather than hoping they'll find the hot corners.

That, plus a lot of in-context training rather than a quick video the first time you log in would help a lot to get over the initial 10-minute hump. Hopefully that's what they're doing.


Again, I don't know what's actually happening, just guessing based on my experience.

That's definitely an accurate point of view, but I think, in this case, as many people have pointed out, the FULLSCREENSTARTMENU thing isn't really good for those of us who, y'know, work on our computers. We want something that takes up only a small part of our screen, like Win7's start menu, which is the OS I am currently using. I've played with Win8. It's fast, responsive, and, well, trying to be as sexy as Zune's OS. It's just, y'know, not good for people like me, who are constantly multitasking. Right now, I've got Pidgin, Skype, Chrome, Steam, and Steam Chat open. Fairly light for me, as I tend to have Unity, multiple Explorer windows, wordprocessing stuffs, and the like open as well. It's not useful to have my entire screen blotted out when I'm switching through tabs.

That's what people want--and by people, I especially mean enterprise.

Is this really hard for them to grok?

 

[mandiller]

My Windows 8.1 wishlist:

• Boot direct to desktop option
• Start button with similar functionality to Windows 7 and easy way to turn off PC
• An actual use for charms
• Ability to run Metro apps in desktop windowed environment
• Have shortcuts on metro apps on desktop
• Ability to create Metro titles easily, like what Oblytitle does

 

[Sub_Level]

you could say i'm feeling BLUE about windows 8 ha ha ha ha

W8 up are you making a pun? Way to start the bar low.

 

[oVerde]

Despite the fact that I work on Windows, I'm not actually sure what the main UX team is making here. But I'll tell you what Tami means.

Every designer of every product in every industry, ever, will nod in agreement with the following saying:

"Customers always suggest the wrong solutions to the right problems."


Just because people are confused by Windows 8 now doesn't mean that making it identical to Windows 7 with the Start Menu is the right answer. Perhaps designers and user researchers have found that the Start Screen isn't the problem, it's finding the start screen. If they put a Start Button back but simply have it launch the Start Screen, it probably solves the vast majority of confusion and problems people have. It's an "anchor" for people to find, rather than hoping they'll find the hot corners.

That, plus a lot of in-context training rather than a quick video the first time you log in would help a lot to get over the initial 10-minute hump. Hopefully that's what they're doing.


Again, I don't know what's actually happening, just guessing based on my experience.

You beat me, I was "damn man, what a long texto to type explaining User Experience", and you already posted it.

 

[border]

Windows 8 is selling as well as the previous version at a time where there is more competition for PCs than ever before.

It's selling the same but at a lower average selling price. Can momentum continue when they aren't doing $20/$40 sales during the holiday season?

It is actually a bit hyperbolic to call Vista a "flop" when it sold over 400 million licenses and even today has more market share than any version of Mac OS X.

That's kind of my point though. Windows cannot "flop" if you insist on looking only at sales numbers. It's pretty much always going to sell hundreds of millions of licenses. It is the default operating system for 90% of consumer-use computers and probably an even higher percentage of business-use computers (for the foreseeable future anyway).

 

[teh_pwn]

Windows 8 RTM was a rush job.

However, the OS is shaping up now. I actually use modern UI constantly for Email, Calendar, News, Finance, and Weather. The apps are way better than they were in RTM.

However, I still don't use them at work because of the sneaky UAC. I need 100% real admin rights, not second class "admin" rights.

And what's this "oh, those 100 million units are sitting on shelves". Really? Even if it's just a software license...REALLY? Do you realize how cutthroat quarterly budgets are? If you're at Dell sitting on 10 million licenses, you're going to get fired.

 

[Dineren]

I'm not really sure I understand the argument that just because you can hit the start key and type your program to launch software instantly means we shouldn't have a start menu. You can have that same functionality through a start menu and have the bonus of not switching UIs to do so. I fairly frequently will launch applications while reading a website or working in an application and with the default setup I'm instantly cut off from my content when I hit start. Not a big deal by any means, but a bit annoying. I decided to give start8 a shot to see if it fixes my issues and it has been great so far, I'm not losing any functionality and I get the consistent interface I was looking for.

That said even without start8 I love Windows 8 (just bought another license today!) and even if Microsoft never changed anything I'd still use Windows 8 over 7 any day.

 

[StudioTan]

It's selling the same but at a lower average selling price. Can momentum continue when they aren't doing $20/$40 sales during the holiday season?

It's May. The "holiday season" was 5-6 months ago. $40 upgrade pricing ended in January.

 

[dLMN8R]

They are practically giving it away.

I've seen this argument come up multiple times that Windows 8 is selling so many licenses because of cheap upgrades.

But then, how would Windows revenue be flat year-over-year? If these Windows 8 licenses selling for the last 6 months were on average so much cheaper than the Windows 7 licenses sold in the same period last year (which total roughly the same, 100-120 million), wouldn't total Windows revenue have dropped dramatically?


But it didn't: http://www.microsoft.com/en-us/news/press/2013/apr13/04-18fy13Q3earningsPR.aspx

The Windows Division posted revenue of $5.70 billion, a 23% increase from the prior year period. Adjusting for the recognition of revenue related to the Windows Upgrade Offer, Windows Division non-GAAP revenue was flat.

 

[LiquidMetal14]

I've seen this argument come up multiple times that Windows 8 is selling so many licenses because of cheap upgrades.

But then, how would Windows revenue be flat year-over-year? If these Windows 8 licenses selling for the last 6 months were on average so much cheaper than the Windows 7 licenses sold in the same period last year (which total roughly the same, 100-120 million), wouldn't total Windows revenue have dropped dramatically?


But it didn't: http://www.microsoft.com/en-us/news/press/2013/apr13/04-18fy13Q3earningsPR.aspx

It may be different right now but I've seen more than enough offers for peanuts to upgrade to Windows 8. I'm not really saying it sucks even though I'm not installing it any time soon on my PC.

 

[dLMN8R]

It may be different right now but I've seen more than enough offers for peanuts to upgrade to Windows 8. I'm not really saying it sucks even though I'm not installing it any time soon on my PC.

Of course there have been a lot of cheap upgrades available, promoted by Microsoft, but what these numbers suggest is that (as usual) they make up a miniscule number of total Windows 8 sales overall.

 

[PFD]

Wait, I thought Win8 was a failure? Now its install numbers are comparable to Win7? Something doesn't add up.

Windows 8 much cheaper than 7 was.

 

[nintendors]

Windows Blue Screen.
Perfect name for a MS OS.

I laughed.

 

[FroJay]

Blow me MS, I bought a new laptop with Windows 8, but I'm running desktop mode with start is back. I never EVER use it in tablet mode, and I'm sure most other people don't either.

 

[Warm Machine]

Blow me MS, I bought a new laptop with Windows 8, but I'm running desktop mode with start is back. I never EVER use it in tablet mode, and I'm sure most other people don't either.

Does your laptop have a touch screen? I use the touchscreen on my Surface Pro far more than using the mouse.

 

[StudioTan]

Blow me MS, I bought a new laptop with Windows 8, but I'm running desktop mode with start is back. I never EVER use it in tablet mode, and I'm sure most other people don't either.

You're using the OS as it was designed. I don't see the problem. Why do you think the desktop is there?

 

[alexandros]

He was afraid that Windows 8 would be an unqualified success paving the way for a closed Windows 9. He is a lot less afraid of that now given that it hasn't been an unqualified success and that MS seem to be swinging Windows 8 Blue back towards the desktop even if only a teeny tiny bit.

I'm still very worried that Microsoft will go down this route, but I don't make a habit of distorting facts in order to suit an argument, even if it is my own. We now know that Microsoft have sold a lot of Windows 8 licences and we also know from multiple sources that Windows 8 PCs and devices are not selling that great. The conclusion I've reached from these two points of data is that the PC industry is heavily investing in Microsoft's vision of the future in order to stop the sales slump, but the general public remains thus far unconvinced. If Windows 8 was planned as a trojan horse to get people accustomed to Metro, I believe it has clearly failed.

Who are you and what have you done with alexandros?

My distrust of Microsoft stems from years upon years of neglect or outright contempt of the PC gaming platform from Microsoft. I'm not ok with them holding the keys to PC gaming and I think it's an absolute necessity for PC gaming to break free of the Microsoft monopoly as soon as possible. Simply put, I don't trust them as far as I can throw them. Are we good now?

Make sure you put Net Applications' numbers in proper context, since they themselves say you should not directly compare Windows 8's stats to Windows Vista, which many people have done.

I know Net Applications changed their methodology in 2007, I'm using their numbers to compare with Win7 adoption rates.

 

[lupinko]

MS sells the majority of its licenses to businesses, not consumers. And businesses buy corporate a license to put any Windows OS (including Windows 8) on their machines. MS counts every single purchases license as a Windows 8 license, even though the majority of all businesses have yet to make Windows 8 their new company desktop OS. Quite a number of them have yet to upgrade from XP to Windows 7 in fact.

My corporation is still using XP, tho W7 is being tested now.

 

[border]

It's May. The "holiday season" was 5-6 months ago. $40 upgrade pricing ended in January.

My point is -- how many of those 100 million licenses were sold at cutthroat prices during the holiday season? It's not unreasonable to assume that for most consumer products, sales will be far better during the Holidays than the first 4 or 5 months out of the year. In their Q2 2013 earnings report that covers October-December sales, they claim they were already more than 60 million licenses sold. So they managed to equal the Win7 sales numbers, but the majority of licenses they sold were at rock bottom prices. Plus they had another month of discounted sales beyond that. It's probably fair to estimate that 65-70 million licenses were sold during the discount period.

But then, how would Windows revenue be flat year-over-year? If these Windows 8 licenses selling for the last 6 months were on average so much cheaper than the Windows 7 licenses sold in the same period last year (which total roughly the same, 100-120 million), wouldn't total Windows revenue have dropped dramatically?

Q3 2013 only includes one month of the upgrade discount (January). Pricing was relatively normal after that AFAIK.

It's a little difficult to just assume that all revenues from the Windows department were from Windows 8. It looks like they are including revenue from the Surface in there as well, and who knows what else (App Store royalties? WindowsPhone licensing? WindowsRT licensing?). Revenues may have been helped just by the fact that they now have 2 in-demand platforms to support, and continued sales of Win7 are helping to prop up the discounts on Win8.

 

[Slavik81]

They sold quite a few Windows 7 licenses for cheap back when it was new too. I bought 3 copies in the family pack for something like $150 total.

 

[rigel137]

MS is so fucked:

He's comparing TOTAL iOS number with JUST Win8 numbers...

 

[peter_pumpkinhead]

This whole 'we know what you need better than you do' philosophy with software guys drives me insane.

I have to work with these people daily, and I'll tell you, I can strangle one of them one of these days.

If I say I want something, it means I want it.

Don't try to figure out what I need, and what will provide for it adequately.

I already did that. And even if I'm wrong I won't blame you for it - I'll be happy with you for having listened.

But no, go ahead and fuck around with what you 'think' I mean by what I say instead of what I say.

If I went to a restaurant and asked for a fork and the waiter brought be a spoon because it would be a better utensil for eating the dish I have, I'd stick it up his ass.

So you would tell your lawyer what to do and get irritated with them saying no? I imagine you would expect a lawyer to know more than you about law? Or an architect about buildings? Or a doctor about health? Why not a software developer about software?

A good lawyer would say no to what you want and do what the law allows or what's in your best interest. A good architect would tell you when your idea for a special building feature is likely to fall down. A good doctor will not prescribe drugs for you just because you ask, but will give you what you need.

If a software developer gives you what you want and it doesn't work then it's their fault for making something that doesn't work, in the same way it is for doctors, architects and lawyers.

Microsoft probably have millions of people saying the start menu is great and millions of people saying it sucks. Who do they listen to? They have to find out what it is that people don't like about it so they can make improvements while not making it worse for the people that do like it.

 

[Zizbuka]

I own 2 licenses, but I'm going back to Windows 7 next re-install. Windows 8 sucks, plain and simple.

 

[maeh2k]

He's comparing TOTAL iOS number with JUST Win8 numbers...

I don't know the exact numbers, but in the last six months Apple sold about 90-100 million iPhones and 40-50 million iPads.

Phones may not be perfectly comparable to tablets and other PCs, but they are still devices using the same apps and interface.


Even if you add Windows Phone licenses and Windows 7 licenses sold since Windows 8 launched, MS hasn't sold that many.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

When I bought my little sister's laptop for her, we chose one which came with a 'choice between Windows 7 and 8'.

I installed the Windows 7 OS for her.

 

[fresquito]

No wonder, some months ago I bought a new laptop with w8 installed. I didn't want w8 and, as a matter of fact, I uninstalled it the next day, but all laptops I could buy included w8. So the figure can well represent how many laptops have been sold in that time span.

 

[alexandros]

Yup. I think the number of people that actually want Windows 8 is rather small, most just get it with a new PC and go "eh, whatever" or revert back to Win7.

 

[kitch9]

I don't know the exact numbers, but in the last six months Apple sold about 90-100 million iPhones and 40-50 million iPads.

Phones may not be perfectly comparable to tablets and other PCs, but they are still devices using the same apps and interface.


Even if you add Windows Phone licenses and Windows 7 licenses sold since Windows 8 launched, MS hasn't sold that many.

What the fuck has a phone got to do with a desktop OS? How many OS X licences were sold?

 

[maeh2k]

What the fuck has a phone got to do with a desktop OS?

A lot. Tablets are PCs. The iPhone runs a tabet/phone OS running the same apps as the iPad. People are moving towards tablets. People who are invested in the iOS ecosystem are more likely to buy an iPad over anything else.

40-50 Million iPads over the last six months is already not that far off from the 100 million Windows licenses.

 

[inm8num2]

I wonder why Microsoft would keep absolute silence on good sales numbers for so long.

Probably because the sales have been abysmal. The adoption rate is lower than that of Vista when it came out.

 

[StudioTan]

Probably because the sales have been abysmal. The adoption rate is lower than that of Vista when it came out.

Windows 8 is selling at the exact same rate as Windows 7, the best selling OS in history. Vista only appears to have had a higher adoption rate because there were less PCs then which means percentages were higher.

Might want to try reading past the second post before responding to the thread.

 

[inm8num2]

Windows 8 is selling at the exact same rate as Windows 7, the best selling OS in history. Vista only appears to have had a higher adoption rate because there were less PCs then which means percentages were higher.

Might want to try reading past the second post before responding to the thread.

Calm down. Not to mention the post to which I was responded is on the 5th page, so your jab has no weight.

Percentages matter quite a bit and your post doesn't change that. MS is having trouble getting XP users to migrate away from that OS. Combine that with less incentive for people to buy new PCs these days and it all adds up to a lower adoption rate for W8.

 

[itxaka]

I bougth it for 19.99€

I would have never bougth windows 7/XP/98 for 200€


There is your reason. Let's see how well it fares from now on.