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[0racle]

Gey guys. Shower thought here on random draws.

If you have a bunch of ballots and are attempting to win a prize what would potentially give you a better chance ?

Lets say there are 12 prizes.

Would you put all your tickets ( 12 tickets for example sake ) in one draw for one prize, or one ticket in each draw for each of the 12 draws/prizes ?

 

[Alcotholic]

Bribe the person drawing the ticket to say your name.

It all depends on how many people put in tickets into each bin.
But for simplicities sake, putting all 12 into one bucket gives you a higher chance of winning something.

 

[shnurgleton]

Depends on the cost of the ticket and the prize value

 

[Morat]

Perhaps you should read up on probability

 

[Escape Goat]

How many are in your denominator

 

[crisdecuba]

Not exactly what you were asking for, but if you can fold your “tickets” then do so only halfway (forming a 90 degree angle) rather than leaving it open or folding it all the way. So when they reach in to pick up the ticket they’re slightly more likely to feel / grab yours as opposed to an adjacent one that’s flat or fully folded.

 

[ultron87]

The math is pretty straightforward, and you’d just have to determine what to do based on your goals. For example, if you want the best chance at winning anything you put all your tickets in the box you expect to have the lowest total number of entries.

 

[eot]

Perhaps you should read up on probability

Suppose I write two numbers on two separate cards, then randomly show you one of the cards. Your task is to pick the higher number, by either changing card or not. What if I told you that you can do better than 50%?

 

[CHC]

It depends on how many are in each pool, and some other stuff.

Assuming you have no preference of prize the chances of winning something are close whether you diversify or not.

Say there are 100 tickets in each of the 12 raffles and you can buy any 12 of any of these tickets.

• Buying 12 tickets in 1 raffle means you have a ((12/100)*100) chance to win it = 12%.
• Buying 1 ticket in each of the 12 raffles means you have a (1/100) chance in each. Meaning you have a ((1-(99/100)^12)*100) chance to win something = 11.36%.

This is not really considering that if you diversify you might win one more than one prize. But there's a very, very small chance of that happening.

Probably better to pick the prize you want and go all in on that particular raffle, honestly.

 

[0racle]

I hear ya, logic says to put all your eggs in one basket for a better chance on paper.

Lets say there are 100 enteries in each draw.

You can gave a 10% chance of winning only ONCE

Or a 1% chance of winning 12 times.

Obviously luck is needed in any case. But ahat would you do ?


All prizes are the same exact thing fyi.

 

[Hyoukokun]

The math is pretty straightforward, and you’d just have to determine what to do based on your goals. For example, if you want the best chance at winning anything you put all your tickets in the box you expect to have the lowest total number of entries.

Got a Nexus 7 tablet this way once (I found the box that had the least tickets in it and dumped all of mine into it). This assumes that the you can guesstimate the number of tickets in the box and nobody else copies your strategy - to which end you may want to wait to the very end to try to 'snipe' an item that has few tickets.

@OP - I ran some simulations on two strategies (dump all the tickets in one box vs. distribute them among all the boxes) assuming that the number of tickets in all the boxes is the same. If you don't care what you win, your best strategy is spread your tickets evenly among the boxes. This is in part because you get diminishing returns for each additional ticket you put into a single box. 1 extra ticket in a box with 50 tickets = 1/51 chance of winning; 2 extra tickets = 2/52 chance of winning, and so on. You also get the possibility of winning multiple items. If you really want one item, then obviously you'd maximize your chances of getting that item by dumping all your tickets into that box, but this reduces your overall chances of winning something.

 

[0racle]

So if every prize is the exact same, its better to spread out one ticket per box, vs all in one?

 

[Alcotholic]

So if every prize is the exact same, its better to spread out one ticket per box, vs all in one?

If all the prizes are the same, why are there 12 bins? why not just draw 12 tickets from one bin?

 

[Earthstrike]

I hear ya, logic says to put all your eggs in one basket for a better chance on paper.

Lets say there are 100 enteries in each draw.

You can gave a 10% chance of winning only ONCE

Or a 1% chance of winning 12 times.

Obviously luck is needed in any case. But ahat would you do ?


All prizes are the same exact thing fyi.

Do you know how many tickets are in each box? Are the number of competing tickets in each box the same?

Edit: Reread the post. When you put all in one, you have a flat 12%. (If each box is 100 after putting in.)
One in each is 1% per box. With one in each box, your odds of winning one prize is slightly lowered, however, your odds of winning more than one prize increase, something that wouldn't occur with all your tickets in one box.

 

[Undefined]

how high are you right now OP

 

[0racle]

Thats the thing. I dont know how many are in each.

Its a win every hour type contest.

 

[Alcotholic]

whats the prize?

 

[Earthstrike]

Thats the thing. I dont know how many are in each.

Its a win every hour type contest.

Then the only math you can do starts with an assumption. If every box (B0, B1, B2, etc) has some probability associated with it (BP0, BP1, etc) it's a matter of getting lucky about which box you put into. Honestly, I'm going to skip the math and cut straight to real life. What is your goal here? Do you just want to win any item at all and don't care? Put all 12 tickets in the item you think the least people would want. See something you like? Put 12 in that.

 

[sunofsam]

Not exactly what you were asking for, but if you can fold your “tickets” then do so only halfway (forming a 90 degree angle) rather than leaving it open or folding it all the way. So when they reach in to pick up the ticket they’re slightly more likely to feel / grab yours as opposed to an adjacent one that’s flat or fully folded.

QFT. Won 550$ in grocery store 50/50 with this a year ago.

 

[teruterubozu]

Spend more money on tickets than the retail cost of the prize.