Can Crusher
Banned
What is this supposed to mean? Batman is a bigger draw than Superman. Yes everybody knows about superman, doesn't mean people generally think he's interesting. Even if they can recognize his symbol everywhere.
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What is this supposed to mean? Batman is a bigger draw than Superman. Yes everybody knows about superman, doesn't mean people generally think he's interesting. Even if they can recognize his symbol everywhere.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Name recognition and cultural saturation can make up for a lot. For a considerable number of people, the concept of a superhero actually BEGINS with Superman.
The marketing has to figure out a way to tap into that, and make that special again.
Making something that's almost always been around feel somewhat fresh is a tough assignment. Warner marketing has to figure out a way to straddle the "OH MAN THAT LOOKS COOL" element with "Oh man, SUPERMAN."
That last one will be varying degrees of difficult. But I don't think it's impossible, precisely because of the name recognition/cultural saturation.
The marketing has to figure out a way to tap into that, and make that special again.
Making something that's almost always been around feel somewhat fresh is a tough assignment. Warner marketing has to figure out a way to straddle the "OH MAN THAT LOOKS COOL" element with "Oh man, SUPERMAN."
That last one will be varying degrees of difficult. But I don't think it's impossible, precisely because of the name recognition/cultural saturation.
You're acting as if there's going to be complete apathy toward Man of Steel simply because it's a reboot. Batman Begins did respectable numbers coming off the complete travesty that was Batman and Robin. Superman Returns -- while certainly not great -- was a better film and better received than that piece of shit. A quality Superman movie will put asses in the seats. Hell, the marketing campaign alone is going to guarantee a giant opening weekend. Hell, if Green Lantern -- a character much more unknown -- can earn $60 million opening weekend, Man of Steel could do $100 million. It's going to be the quality that's going to determine whether it has legs.
Can Crusher
Banned
I don't see how a 100 million opening is this giant event.
It's scheduling is going to limit its legs some. Middle of June is not the best slot for a summer action flick.
As much as people like to claim that movie goers are idiots, I think that The Peeples this weekend shows that people understand the difference between Directed by and Produced by. People aren't going to think this is the next Nolan flick.
SCULLIBUNDO
Banned
lol
I think Man of Steel is poised to do at least $100 million opening weekend, which is still really nice at the end of the day. It doesn't need to break every record.
Like Batman Begins, I think WB is expecting this movie to be a big word of mouth/game changer for the franchise. Box office alone wont determine its success, although it certainly needs to make a good chunk of change to be considered "worth it." WB wants this to make Superman an A-list franchise again. It's looking like it could happen.
I don't just mean slapping Nolan's name all over it (though that certainly hasn't hurt), I mean just the general aesthetic of it. It's obvious that no one wants the Donner movies again, so this is a movie in that Nolan-y serious-ish mold and people seem to react better to that.
It can do that, but I think Superman is such an established property and the buzz has been strong enough... there's no reason for this to need to get over any kind of first movie hump like Batman Begins. Hunger Games made a ridiculous amount of money in its opening weekend and while that's a different target audience (arguably), first movies of established IPs don't necessarily have to be a slow burn.
Lol what? Look at the grosses for that weekend over the past 5-10 years. Pixar has had a lot of success in June, but other than them (and not counting movies that opened on June 30 when it was a Monday or Tuesday ahead of Independence Day Weekend) it's not been nearly as strong a month as May or July. The Hangover is the highest grossing non-animated June film ever. Number 2 is Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (the lowest grossing entry of the entire franchise despite being the best reviewed up to the last film). Number 3 is Ted.
bryanee
Member
Whats actually coming out in June other than Man of Steel?
It should have its initial weekend all to itself. The only thing that could cause an issue will be Monsters University and MAYBE World War Z. But I see the latter bombing domestically and Monsters is going for a different audience. Of course the next movie for MoS' target audience is going to be White House Down two weeks later. But that's also a toss-up.
That could conceivably break $100M?
World War Z, Monster's University, White House Down, and The Heat. WWZ and WHD could bomb, but they are still going to need 4000+ screens each when they open. The week before MoS is pretty dead. First weekend of July is Despicable Me 2 and the Lone Ranger.
Can Crusher
Banned
Ask WB.
You think World War Z is going to dictate 4,000 screens? I think everyone at Paramount knows that dog is dead and they're not going to push it very hard, domestically anyway. I could see them really pushing it internationally.
Batman is a bigger draw at the moment because it's the only property WB has that's been treated with any respect as of late.
Batman is a bigger draw at the moment because it's the only property WB has that's been treated with any respect as of late.
Can Crusher
Banned
You guys think Monster University is gonna bomb or something?
Pixar sequels are hit and miss, and even releases like Brave didn't set the world on fire.
It'll do fine, but I don't think it's going to xut into Man of Steel like Pirates 2 did with Superman Returns.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I think World War Z & Lone Ranger are D.O.A. though.
At least 4000 screens, yes. Not 4000 theatres. Iron Man 3 opened on 13 000 screens.
Razgriz-Specter
Member
These days in America yes, worldwide I disagree.
I could see MOS doing more in countries like China & Japan than TDK & TDKR.
you never know with Depp, and Disney might throw a lot of marketing muscle behind it... because why not. I never really got the appeal of Pirates either and that made Disney billions.
but agreed on World War Z. Can't see that doing well.
TheKaeptain
Banned
MoS is going to kill over seas. No doubt about it.
I suspect Pirates 2 would have more audience crossover with a Superman movie than Monsters University would anyway.
Precisely.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Pirates was marketed really well, though. It took into account the idea it was a movie about an amusement park ride.
Lone Ranger had that bad Super Bowl ad, and hasn't really recovered any sort of buzz or awareness.
I don't think it's going to play. It might be a good movie, but I'm getting John Carter-ish vibes from it. It feels like a project nobody was wanting, or wants to get excited for.
cutmeamango
Banned
If Man of Steel pass 600mi in international territories I'll cut
This looks very weak to me.
also,
People saying World War Z is gonna bomb are crazy. Walking Dead season 3 just ended and Tell Tales game did extremely well. Zombies have never been more popular. I see this movie doing very well for itself. It's not going to smash records or anything but to say it's going to fail is foolhardy.
Honestly I think WW Superman is bigger, a lot bigger.
Pacific Rim is generating quite a bit of interest and early reports are promising. I think it might be a dark horse in July. World War Z has bomb written all over it. Brad Pitt has never been much of a domestic draw, it's a PG-13 zombie film, fans of the book are going to be or are already pissed at the bastardization of the source material, the marketing looks absolutely abysmal, the fact that it looks like a cheap knock off of I Am Legend without Will Smith's star power and the reports that it's an awful fucking film all point to it bombing. I predict it's going to be this year's Green Lantern. It might have a decent opening weekend, but is going to disappear within a matter of weeks.
I agree with your synopsis on WWZ. I got the I Am Legend Vibe as well. Still, Cowboy's and Aliens broke $100M (as did Green Lantern), so it could still do 9 digits. If the film was indeed in the $200M cost range, that would still be a flop.
Baby boomers are going to be all over the show they grew up with as kids. It is like us w/ Transformers. Depp just reinforces it if there was doubt.
Discotheque
Banned
pacific rim is doa more than anything this summer. such shit marketing campaign. they didn't even cut a second theatrical trailer yet and it's out in a few months.
the first one didn't even make a splash. only on gaf.
the first one didn't even make a splash. only on gaf.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I don't think that's actually the case, though. Nobody's responded to it. I don't think Baby Boomers give a shit. They're pushing 70, on average, at this point. Going to a theater and watching this loud crashing banging fast-moving thing calling itself "The Lone Ranger" probably isn't going to be that appealing, even with Johnny Depp - who just looks off-putting.
The only real press I've seen on the movie centers on a) How much it costs and b) how off-putting Johnny Depp looks.
kswiston said:
It's not like June is a wasteland, however. I don't know if it's necessarily fair to subtract Pixar's success in that month (and it probably could be argued their success in that month has caused some studios to essentially give them room as Pixar was basically the surest thing in moneymaking movies for a nice stretch there - thus leading to the trend you pointed out.
But looking at June historically, movies that have opened in the beginning or middle of that month include (and I'm using Box Office Mojo's estimated tickets sold to get a sense of how many people are inclined to head out in June)
Harry Potter 3
Toy Story 3
Batman Forever
Jurassic Park
Batman
The Lion King
Austin Powers 2
In fact, looking at the list, traditionally it seems Warners puts their Superhero films in June. So combining that with the fact Pixar's entry isn't tracking all THAT well? They probably feel comfy that the weekend they picked isn't too disadvantageous.
The wondercon trailer was released recently, that's pretty much trailer #2. I agree it doesn't seem to have garnered much traction, hopefully it does get some.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Gatsby's probably gonna clear 60 mil this weekend. Iron Man 3 will make more, though.
It will not be a curbstomping.
Colin Cowherd is a dipshit.
It will not be a curbstomping.
Colin Cowherd is a dipshit.
I don't think Superman has any cachet in China. The movie's success in China will probably depend on whether it can secure a good opening schedule, or if the authorities push it back several months (like TDKR) after its been pirated to hell.
Maybe you're right about TLR, but I think it could at least do around Pirates CotBP as long as reviews and wom isn't abysmal.
When does the gaf box office thread usually go up?
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Sunday mornings, usually.
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
According to Wikipedia The Great Gatsby has a budget of $104.5 million.
bigtroyjon
Member
Yachts filled with models ain't gonna pay for themselves.
Worldwide? Somewhere over $800M. I don't think Disney released the overseas number for Friday, but the movie is sitting at $796M counting the domestic gross as of Friday and the overseas gross as of Thursday.
Tomorrow's update will put it over $900M for sure. Possibly $950M.
SCULLIBUNDO
Banned
Dat studio bullshit spin. Budget is closer to, if not over $200m after reshoots and additional effects work were needed.
It was wayyyyyyyy over budget before any reshoots.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Fucking crazy.
This feels like On Stranger Tides -- the most weakest film of the series is the one international audiences eat up.
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