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[Acosta]

Makeshift OP:

Mike Morhaime:
-WoW lost 600,000 subscribers this quarter with subscriber counts returning to pre Cataclysm levels.
-Also, subscriber numbers are dropping faster than after previous expansions.

They plan on shifting to a content plan that focuses on more frequent paid expansion packs.

---Original Post---

Those numbers don't even make sense.

WoW has 12 million players. Subscriptions are $15 a month.

Thats 180 million a month. Or over 2 billion a year.

It doesn't work like that. Millions of WoW players are in Asia, and there is no subscription fee there, they have a quite cheap pay for play model, so they can play exclusively when they are in cybercafes.

WoW lost 600.000 players this quarter, it could be the start of a slow decline, I'm really feeling a general apathy in the WoW community, it´s like the hype effect of every expansion fades sooner, and next months will have heavy competitions with games like GW2, The Old Republic or even Tera. It´s still a colossus and will remain that way for years even, but Blizzard is doing right in working in the "next big thing".

 

[Xiaoki]

WoW lost 600.000 players this quarter, it could be the start of a slow decline

There's no mention of this anywhere. Where are you getting this? Please dont make up stuff and spread misinformation.

 

[dimb]

There's no mention of this anywhere. Where are you getting this? Please dont make up stuff and spread misinformation.

The source is Mike Morhaime's mouth. He also said subscriber rate is dropping faster than in previous expansions.

 

[Painraze]

Hmm, sounds like the mighty WoW might be stumbling a bit.

 

[Nirolak]

This is actually pretty interesting, so I think we'll go with a new thread.

I apologize for how uh... non-flowing this is, let me edit some stuff.

 

[Drkirby]

I would say the solution is more free content patches. Just keep adding major things and make a big deal about adding major new things.

 

[antonz]

I noticed that in the slide right away. How quickly the Cataclysm population boom went away.

I think the reality is the Game has hit the wall on keeping peoples interest. I can certainly relate to that. I left after Lich King and the end of the Arthas story and I had no desire to really return.

The majority of accounts are not in US/EU anyways so the 12 million figure has always been very decieving as the way China handles accounts is far different and very inflating on numbers

 

[StuBurns]

I know very little about MMOs, has a major rival launched recently?

 

[Acosta]

There's no mention of this anywhere. Where are you getting this? Please dont make up stuff and spread misinformation.

It went from 12 millions to 11.4, do you need a calculator?

 

[LiK]

they'll be back for WoW2

 

[Nirolak]

I know very little about MMOs, has a major rival launched recently?

Well, there's RIFT, but I think it's mostly game fatigue, which is why they're really ramping up the new MMO team.

Guild Wars 2 and SWTOR will be their real issues in the immediate future though, especially Guild Wars 2 given its business model and gigantic team size/huge amount of content.

 

[luxarific]

Hopefully this is just the beginning of Kotick's downfall.

(what, a girl can dream)

 

[Neuromancer]

Well it was bound to happen sooner or later.

 

[bluestuff]

Its coming closer to a 7 year run, decline would have happened sooner or later. The sad part is that only time could take down WoW and not other MMO's.

 

[dimb]

You're awesome Nirolak. Might also be worth mentioning they plan on shifting to a content plan that focuses on more frequent paid expansion packs.

 

[Ferrio]

I know very little about MMOs, has a major rival launched recently?

The main issue is blizz is stalling out right now big time in game content.

 

[Swag]

Dat 4.0 -> 4.2 lull

 

[Painraze]

I know very little about MMOs, has a major rival launched recently?

I wouldn't consider Rift a major rival but it did release recently.

IMO, I think Cataclysm took the wind out of WoW's sales. Everything is too streamlined and too based on "systems"... there is absolutely no mystery/intrigue in the game anymore and I think people are starting to get really apathetic towards the game.

Also, as I've always said... they killed their Darth Vader (Arthas). Huge mistake. No one cares about a big firey dragon.

 

[NEO0MJ]

They need more hats!
Serious opinion, I think that the problem with the game is that it might feel outdated in this day and age.

 

[KaYotiX]

Hmm, sounds like the mighty WoW might be stumbling a bit.

The game is 6 years old already and in MMO terms its elderly.

 

[Keyser Soze]

Acti should react by closing Blizzard.

 

[Nirolak]

You're awesome Nirolak. Might also be worth mentioning they plan on shifting to a content plan that focuses on more frequent paid expansion packs.

Nice find.

Adding now, thank you!

 

[SuperSonic1305]

I actually cancelled my sub when the pre-Cataclysm patch broke my solid 60fps. I refuse to play WoW with any drops in fps.

 

[Doc Holliday]

Hopefully this is just the beginning of Kotick's downfall.

(what, a girl can dream)

Yes because the only person hurt by wow dying is Kotick...

If anything he would be the least effected.

 

[Drkirby]

Also, if they implemented China like model of paying for the time directly, I would be more inclined to play the game. So disheartening to pay $15 to play for 3 or 4 hours in a month.

 

[Log4Girlz]

It was inevitable. I'm shocked WOW has had such a high subscription rate for such a long time. I canceled my account because I love random BG's and the queue's became massive when they combined battlegroups. They need to allow same faction BG's...they do that and I'm back in.

 

[traveler]

Yeah, I don't really think Rift is the cause of this. Blizzard's pace of content delivery has been slow all throughout Wrath till now and people are just getting burned out after each resurgence faster. It doesn't help that Blizzard is really hitting the limits of what encounters are capable of creatively. Yes, each new fight has its own twist and is largely interesting, but the base mechanics of positioning, phase changes, not standing in stuff, etc. have pretty well hit their breaking points. I realize my own personal experience is strictly anecdotal, but it seems like a common feeling everywhere. (This isn't to say the game isn't still extremely popular or that I and others like me won't return, it's just to say that it's getting harder for the game to sustain a large base for a longer span of time.)

 

[Xyphie]

Dat 4.0 -> 4.2 lull

Yeah, this pretty much. There's nothing to do in WoW atm.

 

[Darklord]

It's been known for a while that there are a LOT of players who want to move onto better MMO's. That's why so many MMO's have huge first month sales. Shit, even Conan broke 1 million in no time. But all the games are weaker copies, or don't invest the time and money to make it a "WoW killer".

If The Old Republic can't put a dint in the subscriber base and keep those subs I think the only thing that'll kill WoW is time.

 

[Acosta]

I know very little about MMOs, has a major rival launched recently?

Rift and DC Online could have contributed. I'm sure there is still pressure from free MMOs too. But, I believe that a part of the problems come from WoW itself.

 

[madara]

Looking at amazon cataclysm has alot upset buyers so I guess no surprise there. I could never treat the game as real mmorpg but thought of coming back for 45 days but with words like linear and restricting quests used over and over in reviews it sounds like playschool adventure not mmorpg.

 

[ZoddGutts]

I know very little about MMOs, has a major rival launched recently?

A lot of people are waiting for Guild Wars 2, one reason being that because it's free to play. Looks great as well.

 

[Mr. Spinnington]

Hopefully this is just the beginning of Kotick's downfall.

(what, a girl can dream)

luxarific is a girl?

 

[antonz]

I think Activision does have to be concerned greatly though. Before I quit most people were already on cruise control and most of the time talk centered around waiting for TOR or other similar MMO.

Next few major MMO launches might put a dent into WoWs subscription base that will give Kotick and others a heart attack

 

[CarbonatedFalcon]

This doesn't surprise me. New patch content has been slow (no new raid when we had a Ulduar for a month now this time in Wrath.) and Cataclysm's initial amount of late to endgame content is lacking compared to Wrath's, if not BC's as well.

I'm currently unsubbed and don't intend to re-up until 4.2 and the new Firelands raid at the earliest, if at all anytime soon.

 

[SneakyStephan]

A decent part of the group I used to play with has quit shortly after Cataclysm launch. (I quit during beta)
One or two have 'relapsed' by now, but the rest is over it and has moved on to different things.

I'm not surprised to see these numbers.

IMO, I think Cataclysm took the wind out of WoW's sales. Everything is too streamlined and too based on "systems"... there is absolutely no mystery/intrigue in the game anymore and I think people are starting to get really apathetic towards the game.

This sums it up pretty well, the game has fallen into a predictable, calculated pattern, the magic and adventure is gone. (has been since tbc ended imo, but it took a while for people to see it)

 

[Phenomic]

Yeah I think this is just the natural progression of things. It's been around 7 or so years as someone previously stated. I do think it's quite telling of things to come. Perhaps someone other than Blizzard could soon own a large share of the MMO market. Perhaps if Star Wars is particularly well done or Guild Wars 2 even. I don't think we will be seeing Project Titan at Blizzcon, but that's just a guess of mine.

Maybe certain people are just seeing 15$ as too much for such an old release. I know I'm more weary of paying that again after I stopped playing 2 or so years ago. Perhaps they could afford to drop that price to 9.99 and see if that gets them anywhere. I know I would probably resub for that.

 

[LiK]

luxarific is a girl?

excited?

 

[Bregor]

I realize that this is mostly anecdotal evidence, but I've talked to many people in raiding guilds, from casual ones to those in the top ten progression, and IMO it is simply MMO fatigue. Many of these players have been doing the same thing for 6 years. Cataclysm was a great product, but how long can you continue doing essentially the same thing over and over?

 

[The Lamonster]

I have personally been less excited than ever about WoW. Booted it up last night and played for an hour or so, and it only left me wondering why I don't unsubscribe.

 

[Painraze]

It's been known for a while that there are a LOT of players who want to move onto better MMO's. That's why so many MMO's have huge first month sales. Shit, even Conan broke 1 million in no time. But all the games are weaker copies, or don't invest the time and money to make it a "WoW killer".

If The Old Republic can't put a dint in the subscriber base and keep those subs I think the only thing that'll kill WoW is time.

I think this is proof that WoW is vulnerable and TOR could put a huge dent in WoW subs.

 

[disappeared]

luxarific is a girl?

Spam that PM box.

 

[Stormwatch]

For people who aren't hardcore raiders it gets to a point where you can't stand killing 10 boars to level up over and over again. I was really excited when Cataclysm came out and I played a lot for a couple months. Now I'm really not excited to pour more time into mindless grinding.

 

[Sn4ke_911]

They will return for D3.

 

[StuBurns]

Well, there's RIFT, but I think it's mostly game fatigue, which is why they're really ramping up the new MMO team.

Guild Wars 2 and SWTOR will be their real issues in the immediate future though, especially Guild Wars 2 given its business model and gigantic team size/huge amount of content.

I think GW2 is going to be huge, ToR less so after the initial launch rush I imagine. However there's really nothing I know of in the long term that's going to challenge Titan, Blizzard can still afford to refine it more than any of their rivals, with that and a potential console MMO from Bungie, I could see Activision dominating 'next-gen' MMOs even more than they already have.

EDIT: Lots of interesting replies, thanks guys.

 

[Yuripaw]

The problem with WoW, is the entire structure of the game really doesn't seem suited for long term play. You get max level, and if you're hardcore enough you do a lot of the end game stuff and try to get some good gear, but to what end? If you ever want to do something different, you're gonna have to build up an all new character, making the progress you've achieved not matter anymore.

The problem with WoW in my opinion has been there is no incentive to have any attachment to your character, which is one of the reasons I've appreciated FFXI more over the years. I love the ability to change jobs in FFXI, and then maintain all the progress you've acquired with that one character. In a game like WoW, they basically ask you to start the game over every time you want to try a different profession.

 

[Nirolak]

Strike now, invasion on Azeroth gooooooooooooooo.

 

[dwebo]

I'd imagine around new year's is when a lot of players make resolutions and quit the addiction game anyway.

 

[antonz]

Titan does not have guaranteed success. WoW just struck the right cords. The Fantasy setting with elves and orcs etc did more with the casual audience than anything.

If they go with some scifi shooter mmo or whatever they wont be coming close to wows numbers

 

[Nirolak]

I think GW2 is going to be huge, ToR less so after the initial launch rush I imagine. However there's really nothing I know of in the long term that's going to challenge Titan, Blizzard can still afford to refine it more than any of their rivals, with that and a potential console MMO from Bungie, I could see Activision dominating 'next-gen' MMOs even more than they already have.

Yeah, Titan is the real ace up their sleeve, but it is also likely to be a new concept, which could either be really good for them or really bad.

The main issue for them is actually releasing it though, which could put some strain on Activision in the interim.