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[kmag]

Doesn't your argument make the case for the game being cheaper in order to have a much bigger pool of potential Switch converts?

You don't need to buy to sign up for a mynintendo account so no not really.

 

[EventHorizon]

$30 mil is crazy with what seemed like a really easy game to push out

The question is how well will future Nintendo mobile games do? It is kindof a giveme because of the curiosity of it being Nintendo's first mobile game. I think future games will be a tougher sell.

 

[kmag]

The question is how well will future Nintendo mobile games do? It is kindof a giveme because of the curiosity of it being Nintendo's first mobile game. I think future games will be a tougher sell.

Some games will, some won't. Mario is their premier brand, but something like Animal Crossing is tailor made for a very good mobile experience while the Metroid base builder seems a bit of a stretch to add an established IP to a mobile game concept.

Nintendo are experimenting in the space. They'll be pretty conservative with the premium brands and more experimental with some others.

 

[Rival]

You don't need to buy to sign up for a mynintendo account so no not really.

I find it hard to believe that Nintendo would release a game with the goal being expanding their advertising reach. The goal is to sell as many copies possible of every game they release. I do understand though that they do not want to tarnish a brand by making it too cheap.

 

[bounchfx]

It's frankly mobile gaming done right. I'd rather pay $10 up front and have access to the entire game than sit through ads, timers, and other bullshit because the developer has to milk their customers for every penny flowing through their wallets.

yup, but you can't sucker people with that and get them addicted to non-gameplay that's essentially just timed dopamine fixes you pay for

 

[Ninja Scooter]

You don't need to buy to sign up for a mynintendo account so no not really.

Signing up for a mynintendo account is nothing. That's not going to all of a sudden intice people who have no interest in console gaming into buying a Switch. The leap from "hey i remember Mario let me try this free/cheap thing" to "ok now I'm spending hundreds of dollars on a Switch + games" just does not have any semblance of reality to me, at least not on any meaningful number.

 

[test_account]

I wonder if we we will ever get actual numbers for the game, at least sales. These estimate numbers seems to be basically pure guesses. Wasnt there an estimate that the game had been downloaded around 45 million times when Nintendo announced 30 million? The last official number i've seen is 50 million downloads.

 

[brad-t]

Signing up for a mynintendo account is nothing. That's not going to all of a sudden intice people who have no interest in console gaming into buying a Switch. The leap from "hey i remember Mario let me try this free/cheap thing" to "ok now I'm spending hundreds of dollars on a Switch + games" just does not have any semblance of reality to me, at least not on any meaningful number.

That's because you're 1) oversimplifying the concept of brand recognition and 2) assuming Nintendo will never do anything with the data they've collected. We've already seen this strategy work with Pokémon Go.

 

[Ninja Scooter]

That's because you're 1) oversimplifying the concept of brand recognition and 2) assuming Nintendo will never do anything with the data they've collected. We've already seen this strategy work with Pokémon Go.

I'm doing neither. Im saying what it seems like Nintendo is doing is absolutely banking further on brand awareness and recognition and diversifying their revenue streams. I'm saying we could be looking at a day in the not so distant future where clear cut number 1 priority for Nintendo isn't selling game consoles to people. If you can play off someone's (who is not a traditional gamer) nostalgia and get them to pay you $10 for a mobile game, or $25 for a mario shirt, or $100 for a theme park ticket, even if those people never buy a Console or games, that's a win.

 

[giant_frying_pan]

I wish I had the 7th best grossing game on the iTunes Store

 

[kmag]

Signing up for a mynintendo account is nothing. That's not going to all of a sudden intice people who have no interest in console gaming into buying a Switch. The leap from "hey i remember Mario let me try this free/cheap thing" to "ok now I'm spending hundreds of dollars on a Switch + games" just does not have any semblance of reality to me, at least not on any meaningful number.

Firstly, Nintendo are almost certainly making profit on the game so outside of opportunity cost there's no real negatives.
Nintendo now have a direct marketing opportunity to a large proportion of the Run Mario Run install base, that's almost certainly a low conversion rate but considering how much you actually have to pay to get eyes on advertising to get it for nothing is hardly marginal. How many of those casual players who downloaded will be looking for a gift for their kids next Christmas etc.

Profiting on the game + not devaluing the brand + achieving a large direct marketing opportunity is a win for Nintendo probably far more so than putting out the same game and trying to sell levels or hats for $2 a pop.

 

[Quonny]

The issue isn't that it isn't successful. It's that it could have been much, much more successful.

 

[KratosEnergyDrink]

That conversion rate seems about right, everyone I've talked to in my circle deleted the demo after trying it for 5-10 minutes.

If this was about expanding the brand then I think Pokemon Go probably did a better job.

As they deleted probably many other games after 5 minutes. Mobile games are not meant for people who spent hours on games, they don't want demanding games but rather easy time sinkers like Angry Birds, Magic Alchemist or Candy Crush.

Millions of people played Mario Run already and millions more will play it in the future. The iOS mobile market is only a tiny fracture of the mobile market that is completely ruled by android devices where Mario Run will launch soon.

The conversion rate for Mario Run seems way above usual on the mobile market and it got probably millions of people interested in the "real" Mario games.

Mario Run is a little money maker and a big advertisement for Nintendo and it will probably make more people buy Nintendo Hardware/Games than a multimillion dollar advertising campaign.

 

[Ninjimbo]

The issue isn't that it isn't successful. It's that it could have been much, much more successful.

This isn't Nintendo's only shot at the mobile market. They got plenty of time and resources to make the gacha game that will end all gacha games. The race to a gajillion dollars starts later so just wait a little bit. Okay?

 

[dose]

3 million actual sales so far is amazing...congrats to Nintendo

Nobody except Nintendo and Apple know the actual sales, all this is complete guesswork, and so pointless.

 

[clemenx]

I think Nintendo was just looking forward to carve themselves a "premium" mobile gaming space. That obviously didn't happen and it probably was a bit too much wishful thinking in their part.

I expect them to go all in on freemium after this.

 

[More_Badass]

The issue isn't that it isn't successful. It's that it could have been much, much more successful.

More successful at the expense of the game.

This game is doing fantastic for a paid mobile game. Nothing else besides Minecraft comes close in terms of how many sales Mario Run has likely gotten (at 3%/4% at 40 million downloads)

 

[Weltall Zero]

In the dedicated space, where they regularly sell much more than 1 million per high profile title, the $30 million from Super Mario Run is fine but not exciting. As an example, A Link Between Worlds sold over 2.5 million within just 6 months of release*. At $39.99 that's $100 million.

Apples to oranges. Let's leave aside that ALBW's physical copies cost money to make and ship, plus retailer cuts (so $39.99 isn't close to pure profit), since the Apple store also takes a cut. Even then, i.e. assuming equal profit percentages, what you are saying is that Mario Run has generated (so far) around a third of what ALBW made. Do you think Mario Run cost a third of what ALBW did to develop, considering how many of Mario Run's assets are recycled from the New Wii U games?

 

[UnemployedVillain]

In the dedicated space, where they regularly sell much more than 1 million per high profile title, the $30 million from Super Mario Run is fine but not exciting. As an example, A Link Between Worlds sold over 2.5 million within just 6 months of release*. At $39.99 that's $100 million.

Yes, a game with probably an order of magnitude the budget, 4x the price, significantly longer dev time, and after having been on the market for 12x the time SMR has been out generated a lot more money. I for one am shocked

 

[phanphare]

I find it hard to believe that Nintendo would release a game with the goal being expanding their advertising reach.

hasn't Nintendo said exactly that about their mobile efforts?

 

[LordRaptor]

They just can't wait for something negative in any way to write an article. What will they write when it hits android?

Its pretty much a given that conversion rates will be lower on Android, and investors and articles targeting investors are going to pick up on that.

 

[commish]

Game got old in about 9 minutes. Ugh to have my ten bucks back

 

[More_Badass]

Game got old in about 9 minutes. Ugh to have my ten bucks back

Why did you buy the game when you didn't like it after 9 minutes?

 

[More_Badass]

They just can't wait for something negative in any way to write an article. What will they write when it hits android?

Games always do worse on Android. Devs will make paid iOS games free to play on Android because so few people buy and/or piracy is so bad

 

[SmokedMeat]

An estimated 90 million downloads for one Mario game. The potential to obliterate anything possible on dedicated gaming handhelds is most certainly there. It's just a matter of figuring out what works. I think they will with future games.

 

[More_Badass]

An estimated 90 million downloads for one Mario game. The potential to obliterate anything possible on dedicated gaming handhelds is most certainly there. It's just a matter of figuring out what works. I think they will with future games.

How many sales the game has gotten is more important than download numbers

But even if they have 2% conversion, that's 1,800,000. 4% would be 3,600,000 sales

 

[Living the Dream]

Games always do worse on Android. Devs will make paid iOS games free to play on Android because so few people buy and/or piracy is so bad

I'm looking forward to see how they price it on Android. I don't believe they'll do it at $10, instead we'll see a pricedrop on iOS to match Android.