I kind of think along similar lines as you.
I would say this though. I don't believe Nintendo has as many 3rd party titles coming currently as we all expected. I think we all expected close to everything to come over. I don't think that is happening. This holiday though. I am starting to become more confident it looks something like this:
Fall/Holiday:
August - September
- EA Sports
- 2k Sports
- MARATHON (if rumored Xbox One & PS4 versions are real)
- MH Wilds
- STAGE TOUR (Guitar hero successor)
- Minecraft NS2
- probably one more MS owned Xbox port
October thru December:
-DuskBloods
- COD
- GTA VI
- NS2 edition: Switch Sports or Smash Bros or Xeno 2
- Pokemon: Ruby, Sapphire, Emerald rom ports
- Big holiday title: Mario or Zelda
We may not love this, but in all honesty. If it looks like this, it is probably the best case scenario for the system and Nintendo at large! This also checks about every box Nintendo would want to check.
Edit: Xbox port = 1st party port.
Edit 2: even if you remove GTA, it is a very good list. But hopefully GTA does come sooner than later.