AniHawk said:
Nintendo will probably increase the graphical power of the system just so they don't get totally left in the dust by cell phones.
there is no fear from cell phones to the handheld gaming market because no general device that has a side feature could beat a specialized deviced built for that specific feature (gaming in this case). case in point; why PSP never tried to be a cell-phone and why N-Gage failed (the latter had everything going for it's failure, but still). the reason why I say this is because cell phones have 1001 standards and specs. they are worse than the PC market in that regard. that is one of the biggest challenges for mobile game publishers; unlike with dedicated handhelds, they can't just release a game where people will buy and play. they will have to alienate parts of the market. you may argue that PC does this, but as I said; PC does this at a much smaller scale than cell phones.
this is what iPhone has going for it; being such a major device, it can afford to have it's own market with its own online store. publishers can focus on it, but still, that doesn't mean iPhone will succeed as being a gaming handheld option. I don't think any cell phone will. perhaps the closest it will get is having a gaming handheld with cell-phone features. maybe.
PSP2
what to look for next generation will be handhelds. I read somewhere that the next generation of PSP has been announced and publishers are already working on games for it. seeing that Sony has a PSP 4000 model coming out this year, we can safely presume PSP2 (tentative name) won't be released this year. but I say it will in 2010 or 2011 for certain. obviously, just like with main PS consoles, the PSP2 will be a continuation towards Sony's vision of a portable multi-media device.
As for the hardware, although STI has a road map for a mini-Cell with just one core and 2 SPEs, it seems such a small Cell will not be ready. there are rumors that they will go with a new generation of a current CPU portable devices solution. it will have an nVidia graphics solution (due to Sony's partnership with them). and finally, it WILL have another analogue nub.
other than a missing analogue nub and using optical media, the PSP's design is perfect for an affordable capable multimedia system. of course, thanks to digital distribution and online stores, every main handheld gaming device will have a HDD. PSP2 will have hard game copies on cards rather than on battery-draining optical discs. from all the new system coming out, I will be dying to see how Sony redesigns their next major gaming handheld. I think they will not offer b/c, and instead pave the way for it from PSP2 onward (just like how PS4 will have full b/c with PS3).
Nintendo Handheld:
just like with the DS and previous main handheld releases, Ninty won't bother with a new generation until a real competitor is looming. that makes perfect business sense after all. they will keep releasing redesigns of the current device to boost sales till that day comes. when it does, they will go with what gave them success this time; affordability. of course, successful features will carry on like touch screen and what not. also, I think it is obvious that all major handheld gaming devices from now on will have a touch screen, motion sensors and online stores.
I predict Ninty's next handheld will role out exactly the same way as how the current handhelds came out: Sony will announced a new, much advanced hardware. Ninty keeping mum, later announcing their answer and finally releasing within months before PSP2 releases being about 40% cheaper.
Ninendo's next console:
just like with their recent handheld stratigy, they will continue with being the most affordable. this is an exceptional advantage as we see Wii selling even without big game releases. also, they have the most to risk. obviously, they will drag the Wii for as long as they can. but having a 'new generation' of systems out is a threat to a current system regardless of how successful or how real that threat could end up being. it is a gamble that only a fool will sit it out and see how it goes. my guess is that they already have plans of what to make and are just waiting for the right time to release it (with updates specs accordingly to how long they are waiting). they definitely won't be the first to release. they could even be the last by a few months if they wish as they will have price on their side. I expect them to release between PS4 and Xbox3 just so they could have the maximum disruption effect for the other two.
I do think that Ninty will flounder in the next generation due to greed and the competition being more street smart now- especially Sony. I don't expect them to start losing money, but I do see them as having a more humble position in the industry in terms of installment and publisher support just like they did before Wii and DS. they will still make a profit due to their unique strategy (like selling hardware at a profit from the get go).
till the time they feel the NEED to release their next console, Wii will keep getting revisions just like what the DS is going through. in fact, it already started as we can see with the controller.
Xbox3:
MS is finally getting it right. if they just nailed the hardware issue for the 360, they would have the perfect system this gen. they are doing very well up till now. I am not seeing major titles for this year, but that might change.
they will release Xbox 3 as soon as PS4's launch threat becomes real. they WILL come out before PS4 at all cost (just like what they did with 360). they WILL have reliable hardware design and great multimedia services (both online and offline) as MS's console strategy isn't that much different from Sony's.
MS will also do what they do best; wait and respond. seeing that Sony WILL introduce new ideas and takes. their hardware will be simply picked later. it will be just like their first two consoles; 'off the shelf PC parts' to some degree. they have the most flexibility when it comes to their hardware component choices as Sony is under contracts and long term plans with their CPU and GPU while Ninty will try to build up on Gamecube to Wii to their next system to be able to keep their affordability advantage. peripherals are a lucrative part of the industry and so MS will continue offering propriety accessories like their HDD, headset, keyboard, etc. also, Live will still be priced.
PS4:
the restructuring of Sony and the birthing pains of PS3 is what will pave the way to success for PS4. it WILL not cost more than $400 to buy. it WILL have a Cell based CPU (8 cores at least) and it WILL have an nVidia GPU (seeing that they have a long term partnership with nVidia.
PS4 will have a robust digital entertainment network (as will Xbox 3). the biggest thing that could limit how successful PS4 will be is how much Sony can afford to spend on it as they are and will face financial difficulties more than the competition due to many obvious reasons. I also have a strong feeling that Sony will partner with someone on PS4. it may be another CE company similar to them or a more software based company. but I don't think they can afford to go make PS4 what they planned it to be already and certainly not with the punishment PS3 has brought them without partnership assistance. this could be a major partnership or it could be some companies having a bigger stake of PS4 just like Blu-Ray for example.
PS4 will be fully compatible with PS3 and publishers could even use existing PS3 tools with slight modification on it. of course, these tools will need to be updates to take advantage of the new capabilities and power of the system, but that shows how compatible the hardware and software is between PS3 and PS4. and of course, HDD will be standard starting from 120GB. Sony will continue their 'open' approach with their accessories just like what they are doing currently with PS3.
also, I expect a lot of SCEWWS teams merging or closing down. Sony will divide the networks support between their other divisions entirely. for example, Sony Pictures will completely be responsible and handle PSN's TV and movie service and their music arm will completely handle PSN's music section. profits and losses in each main segment (gaming, music, video) will be the loss or gain of each division respectively. to users, the service will seem continuous and ubiquitous.
