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June 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes July 14th

donny2112

Member
ITT, predict for the NPD June 2015 retail period (May 31-July 4, 2015) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, July 14th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: May 31-July 4, 2015 (5 weeks, May was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: Thursday, July 16th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000     [XB1] - 200000


Potential hardware impacting events in June:
Summary
XB1 500GB $349 price made permanent - June 9 (23 days)
XB1 1TB model at $399 - June 16 (19 days)
PS4 500GB Limited Edition Batman Arkham Knight bundle at $449 and Standard Edition bundle at $399 - June 23 (12 days)


Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

May's Results (estimates)
Welfare said:
Quake1028 said:
Did someone post estimated PS4 and Wii U numbers?
Yes. 152k and 42k
Nirolak said:
Xbox One: Up 81% over May 2014. This would imply 139K.
3DS: ~97K

May 2014 NPD thread
June 2014 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 

Abdiel

Member
Donny, you forgot the Batman ps4 standard bundle that includes the game for free at 399.99. They've been doing very well indeed.
 

TomShoe

Banned
Reserved for baneposting

for you

EDIT: This is going to be a difficult month to predict, but also a good one to climb up the ladder. Currently #35, let's keep pushing.

2DIT:

[PS4] 233K
[XB1] 192K
[3DS] 145K
[WIU] 63K
 
Thank you for preparing the tread.
This will be interesting.
Batman will have an effect for sure, low Xbox price maybe, but what about E3?
Backwards compatibility convincing 360ers to finally jump?

[3DS] 122k
[PS4] 322k
[WIU] 88k
[XB1] 191k


PS4 over 300, welfare? Placeholder or real estimate?
Edit: finally got nervous and also jumped the 300-mark...
Pre-orders.
 

donny2112

Member
i just lost my Junior status, so I -probably- can't get perma-banned this thread.

Juniors are only perma-banned, which is why it's so important for them to tread lightly, but regular members aren't immune to that, either. There's just more banning options available for regular members besides perm'd.

Wasn't expecting an early thread. Taking a break from ESO was wise.

Figured to get it up early with the holiday weekend (in the U.S.) approaching.

Thank you for preparing the tread.

npoav.jpg


PS4 over 300, welfare? Placeholder or real estimate?

5-week month. Arkham bundles. Possibly some people held off in previous months for the Arkham bundle. Good reasons!
 

Footos22

Member
Juniors are only perma-banned, which is why it's so important for them to tread lightly, but regular members aren't immune to that, either. There's just more banning options available for regular members besides perm'd.



Figured to get it up early with the holiday weekend (in the U.S.) approaching.



npoav.jpg




5-week month. Arkham bundles. Possibly some people held off in previous months for the Arkham bundle. Good reasons!

Can't even enter a neogaf thread without my workplace slapping me in the face with all its rubbery smelliness.
 

STEaMkb

Member
XB1 will be higher than PS4 this month, because of concurrent trade-in deals...

cszEM2W.png

Didn't the Ps4 have those as well?

3 to 1. Best Buy and Microsoft store both had well-publicized trade-in deals offering an Xbox One. Gamespot had an offer for either PS4 or Xbox One.

After the backward compatibility announcement, I figure more people will be receptive to letting go of their 360s in exchange for a One.
 
3 to 1. Best Buy and Microsoft store both had well-publicized trade-in deals offering an Xbox One. Gamespot had an offer for either PS4 or Xbox One.

After the backward compatibility announcement, I figure more people will be receptive to letting go of their 360s in exchange for a One.

In the end it's BC vs. Batman
 

Elios83

Member
[3DS] 110K
[PS4] 320K
[WIU] 60k
[XB1] 200K

It will be a really good month for PS4 because of Batman bundles.
 
3 to 1. Best Buy and Microsoft store both had well-publicized trade-in deals offering an Xbox One. Gamespot had an offer for either PS4 or Xbox One.

After the backward compatibility announcement, I figure more people will be receptive to letting go of their 360s in exchange for a One.
Whenever MS was doing something like that it was for a reason. Monstly damage control.
So maybe they did not want to lose too big against the batman bundle. I am sure they had a good idea of the preorder numbers.

Edit:
An Abdiel appears! Cool!
Thank you for your comments.
 

Abdiel

Member
3 to 1. Best Buy and Microsoft store both had well-publicized trade-in deals offering an Xbox One. Gamespot had an offer for either PS4 or Xbox One.

After the backward compatibility announcement, I figure more people will be receptive to letting go of their 360s in exchange for a One.

Speaking on behalf of best buy, there was no contest, ps4 won for all the districts I checked. Those trade in deals are nice, but the Batman numbers have been fantastic movers. Like, genuinely impressed for this time of year. Still nowhere near Destiny numbers, but the standard Batman bundles keep going.

And as I said in the results thread the other night, the impact of backwards compatibility has been rather muted so far. Only preview members right now, and it's not universal for all games, so it's mostly been some inquiries and not many confident purchases. Once it's released to everyone I think it might have some push, but for now? Less than ten questions about it in my main store.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
Always get excited when I see Donny make a thread.

Looking forward to seeing how GAF does this month. It will be very interesting to see the results.
 
Speaking on behalf of best buy, there was no contest, ps4 won for all the districts I checked. Those trade in deals are nice, but the Batman numbers have been fantastic movers. Like, genuinely impressed for this time of year. Still nowhere near Destiny numbers, but the standard Batman bundles keep going.

And as I said in the results thread the other night, the impact of backwards compatibility has been rather muted so far. Only preview members right now, and it's not universal for all games, so it's mostly been some inquiries and not many confident purchases. Once it's released to everyone I think it might have some push, but for now? Less than ten questions about it in my main store.

Hmmmm. I wonder if my 320k for PS4 was a bit conservative.
 

cakely

Member
3 to 1. Best Buy and Microsoft store both had well-publicized trade-in deals offering an Xbox One. Gamespot had an offer for either PS4 or Xbox One.

After the backward compatibility announcement, I figure more people will be receptive to letting go of their 360s in exchange for a One.

People didn't run out to the stores to buy an Xbox One in June because limited backwards compatibility is coming at some point in the future.
 
I'm not allowed to predict, but good luck to all those who apply.

I'm curious to see how successful the denizens of GAF will be this time around.
 
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