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November 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 6th
The Mad Draklor
Member
He's a marketing executive and he was also the one that said "Xbox One sales and Live engagement were 'strong' " right after Black Friday.
Looks like hanspampel is wrong about that PR not being 'official'.
ethomaz
Banned
What hanspampel is not wrong in this thread??? lol
FinaruDensetsu
Member
Don't listen to the haters. Don't stop, quadruple, quintuple down!
Bitch Pudding
Member
Nah, all indicators, from amazon rankings to comments from retail managers showed a strong demand for the Pro. As a matter of fact, people saving their money for the upcoming Pro was one of the main reasons for the XBOX winning streak within the last months.
Sony not knowing why the heck they sell so many consoles, again.
demigod
Member
PS4 will have the edge since they won Cyber Monday.
The Mad Draklor
Member
But Abdiel said that MS was smarter with the amount of stock, so it's more of a matter of not overshipping. And you mentioned not taking Amazon as gospel and yet, you're now relying on that for your argument. You can't have it both ways...
MatPiscatella
Member
What ARE you doing. Whatever it is, just stop man. I can't even tell what you're trying to say.
What retail managers besides Abdiel stated a strong demand for the Pro? Just curious.
And the whole "Xbox only won Sept/Oct because people were waiting for Pro" is some spin almost as bad as the MS fanboy in this thread about the Nov results.
Almost
FinaruDensetsu
Member
Yeah especially when Amazon hasn't had much stock of many Xbox SKUs for months now. That was the whole reason Amazon would show PS4 winning in the 4 months where Xbox won NPD. That was super clear that they weren't a good indicator of Xbox supply.
I think even the post you quoted said "one of the main reasons". I've not seen a single person that said Xbox only won because people were waiting for PRO, but there's no denying that was a contributory reason, especially given how small some of the margins were.
Wrong. According to Adobe, Xbox was more popular when it came to online sales in the United States. Online sales only!
We won't get numbers until next week.
If Sony's PR doesn't mention it, that's your answer
Both are probably down, there's a lack of PR with results aside from MS's deflection.
Cow Goes Moo
Member
i forgot how petty npd threads were or have gotten <_<
wonder what dropped more yoy the consoles or the weather
wonder what dropped more yoy the consoles or the weather
FinaruDensetsu
Member
From my short time here, I've learned that Cosmic is usually right. I'm going to say it was probably down yoy.
The Mad Draklor
Member
Well... senpai noticed him so there's that.
Go back and read the Sept/Oct threads. Yeah there were IIRC.
And it's hard to say as we don't know how much the Pro sold and it's possible hat a good number of those that did sell were current PS4 owners that would not have bought another PS4 if it wasn't the Pro.
Sept/Oct were also decent margins between the two as well. Not huge, but not insignificant
Bitch Pudding
Member
You call it fanboy drivel / spin. I call it marketing 101. Of course the Pro announcement for November let to consumer reticence in September and October, in anticipation for that product. This happens almost every time a company announces a new product, although this is indeed a special scenario as technically the Slim was also a newly introduced SKU. And yes, I think this was one of the main reasons, not the only one.
See my post right above yours.
I give you credit, you said "one of" but until we know exact numbers (and to really know would need to know how many Pro buyers didn't already own a PS4) your "statement of fact" is not fact, it's speculation
Hydrargyrus
Member
I hope we'll get some pies now that aqua won't give the numbers
CosmicQueso
Member
.
Bitch Pudding
Member
Just to make myself clear, MS did a great job with the XBOX One S. It maintained its ground although Sony introduced a new cheaper SKU shortly after. But from now on, MS will need Scorpio to match and/or surpass Sony's offer of a cheap entry-level and a premium SKU.
hanspampel
Banned
whoever wins novemer, also takes december. 2013 was just differnet becausw of low supply for ps4.
2014 xbox one won both months
2015 ps4 won both months
i say; last year in november npd xbox one sold more units and we had no reports about low stock situations but rather overstocking
this year, xbox one sold less units and we have some low stock situations
= lower supply for whatever reasons.
so microsoft will probably report xbox hardware sales being down due to lower prices of consoles sold and a decline in volume of consoles sold in the next Q10 filling
ethomaz
Banned
MS needs to be cheaper... that was always the case and it will be this whole gen because it has the weaker hardware.
But Sony hardware is cheaper to make than MS hardware and that create a lot of issues to MS because they only can go down in price cut to a certain point while Sony can go lower if they want (but they won't because at the same price they sell more).
Scorpio is too late to really make a difference... it will be the first MS console this gen that is stronger and expensive and not weaker and expensive like today.
Again XB1 needs to be cheaper at least $50 to sell on pair with PS4... that is true for the whole generation in US.
I said a stAtement of similar effect back around April or May. It would be interesting if there was data to support our thoughts. With the exception of the S release I would imagine it held true.
And now that the S initial sales have tempered, and with Sony's lineup and momentum going into 2017, I would imagine it continues to hold true.
CosmicQueso
Member
.
Dash_Riprock
Member
They should've saved their 50 million sold announcement for today.
BF sales centralization vs. total sales (integral under the curve drops (this year, so YoY drop), but amplitude spikes at a specific point), basically.
KillerMan91
Member
It's not like last years Sonys November NPD PR said anything about yoy growth either despite having massive yoy growth:
Sony said:
But maybe you are right and having no PR at all tells us that sales were down.
Unknown?
Member
But they stopped commenting on NPD for a long time now, even before Xbox One S started winning. I'm not sure this necessarily means much and they already gave their statements about Black Friday.
That is indeed the most likely reason for no NPD PR. Especially since they've already done total software sold/attach rate PR with the 50m sold through announcement. If they don't have anything particularly good to say (SW or HW up YoY) then they are likely to not say anything at all.
Personally I anticipate a VERY steep decline in SW YoY and ~20% HW decline. But we shall see. Gotta admit that BF boast threw me for a loop at first. I had forgotten that BF has become more of an international affair lately.
They could be both down although so far only MS is confirmed to be down given that being up yoy was the only positive thing they could say in their PR and they didn't mention it but it's not for that that Sony has not made a comment.
It's because their marketing line is that the only sales numbers they want to share are the worldwide milestones they achieve. Hence why they released a worldwide PR yesterday.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
I'm gonna guess no, but combined with December it probably will.
The sales gap for the past few months was ~300k in favor of XB1. It's certainly possible but I think this months sales will end up being just shy of covering the whole gap with December going back to widening the predicting gap again.
Have you?
ethomaz
Banned
Dec 15th is the software PR.No software numbers this time?
Probably not November alone, but IIRC last year the whole holiday period added ~300k to the gap for Sony, possibly see that again.
Doesn't mean much frankly, they already released the PR statement that matters to them (50m+ consoles sold through WW, Best BF in PS history, probably WW but logically in the US too, no reason not to)
With that, imo, and knowing the following
- PS4 won BF retail (Infoscout)
- Pro released with 3 months of pre orders
- BF week is mostly about cheap slim at $249
- Single SKU allowed Sony to replenish stocks with more efficiency than multiple one
I predict the slim alone did at least as good a the XB1s, and the Pro put another 300k+ on top, possibly 400k.
PS4 up at least 3% YoY.