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Frankfurter · Mar 24, 2006

cvxfreak said:
700K DS lites in April....

If they can sell all of them =O

It would be absolutely insane if that would happen. DS(+L) will pass 1m in the week ending with 2nd of April. That would be nearly ... 2m DS(+L) at the end of April (in 2005, DS broke 2m in the week ending with the 6th of November) :lol

RedLightning · Mar 24, 2006

It also says that although they previously stated that they were expecting to ship only 450,000 units in March, from current conditions it looks like they will be able to make 550,000 units.

Hopefully this means I can get one soon.

Frankfurter · Mar 24, 2006

RedLightning said:
It also says that although they previously stated that they were expecting to ship only 450,000 units in March, from current conditions it looks like they will be able to make 550,000 units.

Hopefully this means I can get one soon.

Wow, if that's the case we should see it in the next two MC hardware charts. Looks good for a relatively close launch in the USA and Europe as they obviously already can produce the DSL in high quantities.

Deku · Mar 24, 2006

Frankfurter said:
Wow, if that's the case we should see it in the next two MC hardware charts. Looks good for a relatively close launch in the USA and Europe as they obviously already can produce the DSL in high quantities.

The reason for the continued DSL shortage is probably because they are making more than they are selling and piling up inventory for the Rest of thr World DSL launch.

JoshuaJSlone · Mar 24, 2006

Rock_Man said:
Your PSP number is correct. GBASP should be:
17443
9982
7912
5946
5649
5405
5553
4964
5493
4235
4290
(ytd 76872)

There it was. Much thanks. *thumbs up*

Deku said:
The reason for the continued DSL shortage is probably because they are making more than they are selling and piling up inventory for the Rest of thr World DSL launch.

Why would they do that? It'd be easier to sell them now, not have to keep them in storage, wait until DS Lite demand is sated a bit, and just use more recently-produced units when launching in other territories.

Fuzzy · Mar 24, 2006

JoshuaJSlone said:
Why would they do that? It'd be easier to sell them now, not have to keep them in storage, wait until DS Lite demand is sated a bit, and just use more recently-produced units when launching in other territories.

Because it's cheaper to ship a large amount on a boat at one time then smaller amounts multiple times for NA and EU.

Earthstrike · Mar 24, 2006

I think the fact that the DSL release date (which is supposed to be coincident with the NSMB release date) was pushed back a week substantiates the claim of JOshuaJSlone.

polg · Mar 25, 2006

I think the totals were wrong on last week's chart, but nobody noticed

now they are fixed

JoshuaJSlone · Mar 25, 2006

Fuzzy said:
Because it's cheaper to ship a large amount on a boat at one time then smaller amounts multiple times for NA and EU.

I'm talking about selling that extra now in Japan, not exporting them. Deku is suggesting that one reason for the current Japanese shortage is units being stockpiled away for other territories. To pull some numbers out of the air, maybe say 150K produced a week, and 50K aren't going on sale.

I'm saying that's just wasteful warehousing. If they had 150K in a week, they'd all sell out in Japan. Do that, more units get sold more quickly, and soon Japanese demand is not at the point of 100+K per week. At that point, they can set aside more than 50K a week for the launches in other territories. The same amount of units are ready for NA/EU launch at the same time, it's just that the Japanese number increases sooner.

cvxfreak · Mar 25, 2006

polg said:
I think the totals were wrong on last week's chart, but nobody noticed now they are fixed

Ever since Fuzzy stopped being always right... he's now skipping over errors!

Deku · Mar 25, 2006

JoshuaJSlone said:
I'm talking about selling that extra now in Japan, not exporting them. Deku is suggesting that one reason for the current Japanese shortage is units being stockpiled away for other territories. To pull some numbers out of the air, maybe say 150K produced a week, and 50K aren't going on sale.

I'm saying that's just wasteful warehousing. If they had 150K in a week, they'd all sell out in Japan. Do that, more units get sold more quickly, and soon Japanese demand is not at the point of 100+K per week. At that point, they can set aside more than 50K a week for the launches in other territories. The same amount of units are ready for NA/EU launch at the same time, it's just that the Japanese number increases sooner.

You do understand Nintendo has no native manufacturing facilities in NA and for it to have a healthy launch for NA, say (at least 500k units) and then perhaps 100-200k units shipped every month or so thereafter would require (either A: increased manufacturing capacity) or B: a stockpile for them to draw on.

I'm not familiar with how Nintendo manages their manufacturing logistics, but the fact there shortages remain in Japan means that Nintendo is likely not able to to produce the DS lite for Japan and the rest of the world simultaneously, without them expanding capacity significantly, or the demand in Japan tapering off substantially.

Also keep in mind that the DS is maturing as a platform. Sales this year won't mirrow last year's, but will likely be greater in all territories as the mainstream beings adopting to the technology. The amount of units that will need to be produced for the upcoming holidays is going to be huge.

Demand in Japan will likely come down overtime, at least until the fall, which should free up units to be shipps on a regular basis overseas but when this will occur is probably months ahead in the horizon. The inventory Nintnedo is building is not just for a launch, but for at least then next 6 months as they adjust their manufacturing capacity and see how demand levels out in Japan and the other terroties after their respective launches.

starship · Mar 25, 2006

I think April will be huge with 700k DS Lite shipment but my magic 8 ball tell me May will even be more impressive.

JoshuaJSlone · Mar 25, 2006

Deku said:
You do understand Nintendo has no native manufacturing facilities in NA and for it to have a healthy launch for NA, say (at least 500k units) and then perhaps 100-200k units shipped every month or so thereafter would require (either A: increased manufacturing capacity) or B: a stockpile for them to draw on.

Yes. I just think it makes a lot more sense to hold 2X units per week for NA in April and May than it does to draw back X units per week for NA in February, March, April, and May. The advantage of not having a worldwide launch is to be able to concentrate a major amount to the territory currently being given focus.

cvxfreak · Mar 25, 2006

April will really be a telling month for the DS. If those 700K DS lites still cannot satisfy demand, then I shudder to think what would happen to the rest of the world in May after E3, after the release of Mario and the start of the summer season.

At this rate, DS (and the lite) can break 10 Million in Japan by the end of the summer, which is waaaaaaay ahead of schedule.

Joshua, think you can use the monthly Famitsu figures and calculate how long it would take for the DS to reach PS2 level sales. I have a feeling it'll be in three or so years.

Fuzzy · Mar 25, 2006

cvxfreak said:
Ever since Fuzzy stopped being always right... he's now skipping over errors!

I don't bother checking people's totals anymore unless they're obviously wrong. If they can't learn to use a spreadsheet program then I can't be bothered to check their incorrect totals.

cvxfreak · Mar 25, 2006

Fuzzy said:
I don't bother checking people's totals anymore unless they're obviously wrong. If they can't learn to use a spreadsheet program then I can't be bothered to check their incorrect totals.

That's solid, if not spectacular.

Deku · Mar 25, 2006

Well Japan is a bit of a special case of Nintendo too. Nintendo hasn't dominated like this since the SuperFamicom era and it's the rebirth of the company there, which will have long term ramifications for everyone involved.

Rest of the World is a bit weaker for the DS, but with games like Zelda and Mario as well as unknown titles to be revealed at E3 from 3rd parties, it's hard not to see the demand for the DS surging ahead everywhere.

starship · Mar 25, 2006

Deku said:
Well Japan is a bit of a special case of Nintendo too. Nintendo hasn't dominated like this since the SuperFamicom era and it's the rebirth of the company there, which will have long term ramifications for everyone involved.

Rest of the World is a bit weaker for the DS, but with games like Zelda and Mario as well as unknown titles to be revealed at E3 from 3rd parties, it's hard not to see the demand for the DS surging ahead everywhere.

Don't forget those monsters

Pokemon Diamond/Pearl

cvxfreak · Mar 25, 2006

kia said:
Don't forget those monsters

Pokemon Diamond/Pearl

Well, at least 700K or so Pokemon fans already exist on the DS, and more are probably shifting thanks to Ranger, but it's still scary to see that we haven't seen the last of the Nintendo juggernauts on the DS. There's still Mario, Final Fantasy III, Zelda and Donkey Kong to do their damage.

starship · Mar 25, 2006

cvxfreak said:
Well, at least 700K or so Pokemon fans already exist on the DS, and more are probably shifting thanks to Ranger, but it's still scary to see that we haven't seen the last of the Nintendo juggernauts on the DS. There's still Mario, Final Fantasy III, Zelda and Donkey Kong to do their damage.

QFT
and with sexy as hell DS Lite in the horizon (in western territories), DS popularity will only increase.

JoshuaJSlone · Mar 25, 2006

cvxfreak said:
At this rate, DS (and the lite) can break 10 Million in Japan by the end of the summer, which is waaaaaaay ahead of schedule.

Joshua, think you can use the monthly Famitsu figures and calculate how long it would take for the DS to reach PS2 level sales. I have a feeling it'll be in three or so years.

I think there are too many unknowns to try and project a few years out. How long will this Lite launch high last, what will it settle down to as a regular weekly amount after that, will it have more 400+K weeks later this year, how will PS3 and Revolution affect it?

Reaching 10 million by the end of the summer would mean it would have to sell nearly as well as this week every week for the next half year, which does seem a pretty tall order.

To make a really weak and safe prediction, if next week is similar to this week, if April shipments are as big as we've heard, and if past that DS sells as well as it did in 2005, it should reach 5 million in 2006, making for at least 10.5 million lifetime.

starship · Mar 25, 2006

JoshuaJSlone said:
I think there are too many unknowns to try and project a few years out. How long will this Lite launch high last, what will it settle down to as a regular weekly amount after that, will it have more 400+K weeks later this year, how will PS3 and Revolution affect it?

Reaching 10 million by the end of the summer would mean it would have to sell nearly as well as this week every week for the next half year, which does seem a pretty tall order.

To make a really weak and safe prediction, if next week is similar to this week, if April shipments are as big as we've heard, and if past that DS sells as well as it did in 2005, it should reach 5 million in 2006, making for at least 10.5 million lifetime.

It will do much more than that. 6+ millions in 2006 guaranteed. I expect DS sales will reach 10m lifetime by the end of October - mid November, and it will sell another couple millions in the remaining months.

cvxfreak · Mar 25, 2006

Yeah, I'm pretty much assuming that the DS stays as high as it has been these last three or so weeks. In addition to the 700K DS Lite systems, I'm expecting something original DS shipments to be fairly high as well (maybe as high as 300K?). It seems like the original DS has fallen in terms of interest, but it's actually close to reaching Nintendo's March projection of 200K units. So I think it's possible for Nintendo to make it to 8 Million by the middle of May... it still seems like a tall order though, you're right.

starship · Mar 25, 2006

In 2005 DS sold ~ 4m - 4.5m
With the huge momentum it has right now
new games like NSMB, Pokemon D/P, Tetris, FF III, ...
continued strong sales of AC, BT 1&2, English Training, ...
DS Lite (and strong sales of original DS)
and many other facts, it can easily sell 6m this year.

Edit: its a typo, DS sold about 4m - 4.5m in 2005

cvxfreak · Mar 25, 2006

For the record, Nintendo did expect sales of the DS + Lite to reach 10 Million LTD by the end of the year. So by Nintendo's projections 2006 will be a better year than 2005 (gotta remember than DS came out in 2004 and sold 1.5 Million units).

starship · Mar 25, 2006

cvxfreak said:
For the record, Nintendo did expect sales of the DS + Lite to reach 10 Million LTD by the end of the year. So by Nintendo's projections 2006 will be a better year than 2005 (gotta remember than DS came out in 2004 and sold 1.5 Million units).

I think they're expecting more than 10m by the end of the year.

Gameindustry.biz said:
According to Nintendo president Satoru Iwata, the company is confident that the DS will continue to sell well as 2006 unfolds. Speaking to the Japanese press, Iwata said: "Taken as a whole with the current version, we're aiming at total domestic sales of 10,000,000 units not too late in the year."

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=14331

so 2006 will be much stronger year for DS than 2005 according to Nintendo.

Moor-Angol · Mar 25, 2006

Just to remember in April 2005 there were about 200k DS sold, and that was Nintendogs release month...

ioi · Mar 25, 2006

Have updated the DS vs PSP vs GBA graph as of this week:

Purple GBA, Blue DS, Red PSP:

And there is more here- http://www.everythingandnothing.org.uk/vg/dspsp.php

Have also added hardware to the weekly charts, not complete yet but GBA / DS / PSP are all there, and the first 3 years of PS2 as well.

typhonsentra · Mar 25, 2006

Amazing for our the Nintendo. It took the GBA another 20 weeks to reach the DS's current level!

ziran · Mar 25, 2006

ioi said:
Have updated the DS vs PSP vs GBA graph as of this week:

Purple GBA, Blue DS, Red PSP:

And there is more here- http://www.everythingandnothing.org.uk/vg/dspsp.php

Have also added hardware to the weekly charts, not complete yet but GBA / DS / PSP are all there, and the first 3 years of PS2 as well.

really is amazing the rate at which ds has gotten to its intalled base.

Frankfurter · Mar 25, 2006

kia said:
It will do much more than that. 6+ millions in 2006 guaranteed. I expect DS sales will reach 10m lifetime by the end of October - mid November, and it will sell another couple millions in the remaining months.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but that would most likely be the best sales ever for a hardware in Japan in one year.

Btw. I'm not sure if they are talking about sales or shipments in that 10m thing.

Leonsito · Mar 25, 2006

Frankfurter said:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but that would most likely be the best sales ever for a hardware in Japan in one year.

Btw. I'm not sure if they are talking about sales or shipments in that 10m thing.

In Japan is likely the same for the DS

JoshuaJSlone · Mar 25, 2006

DS will do better than it did in 2005 for most of the year, sure... but it's been the hot new thing, and nearly 2 million of those sales were in December alone. With PS3 and Revolution as new competition, I think it's less than certain DS will duplicate or better those December numbers, which would be the key to reaching something like 6 million.

BorkBork · Mar 25, 2006

JoshuaJSlone said:
DS will do better than it did in 2005 for most of the year, sure... but it's been the hot new thing, and nearly 2 million of those sales were in December alone. With PS3 and Revolution as new competition, I think it's less than certain DS will duplicate or better those December numbers, which would be the key to reaching something like 6 million.

Pokemon.

starship · Mar 25, 2006

BorkBork said:
Pokemon D/P release in mid November.

Fixed

JoshuaJSlone · Mar 25, 2006

BorkBork said:
Pokemon.

Good good good point. With the lack of real information I'd thought of it as a sure 2007 release, but a quick search shows that to not be the case.

ethelred · Mar 25, 2006

JoshuaJSlone said:
Good good good point. With the lack of real information I'd thought of it as a sure 2007 release, but a quick search shows that to not be the case.

Yes, and if NoE is correct, it won't just be Japan getting it in 2006.

Frankfurter · Mar 25, 2006

I must've missed that information, could anybody give me a link to the thread? I thought that the only region where Pokemon D/P has a slim chance of a 2006 release would be Japan.

ethelred · Mar 25, 2006

Frankfurter said:
I must've missed that information, could anybody give me a link to the thread? I thought that the only region where Pokemon D/P has a slim chance of a 2006 release would be Japan.

Official Nintendo Magazine for UK had Mysterious Dungeon, Metroid Dread, Metroid Prime 3, Twilight Princess, and Pokemon Diamond/Pearl listed as 2006 releases. Given how heavily Nintendo has been emphasizing near-simultaneous JP/NA releases of late, it wouldn't really surprise me too much.

Jiggy · Mar 25, 2006

ethelred said:
Official Nintendo Magazine for UK had Mysterious Dungeon, Metroid Dread, Metroid Prime 3, Twilight Princess, and Pokemon Diamond/Pearl listed as 2006 releases. Given how heavily Nintendo has been emphasizing near-simultaneous JP/NA releases of late, it wouldn't really surprise me too much.

That sounds too much like speculation to me, especially with Metroid Dread on there. We've got zero screenshots of Pokemon D/P, which would be really uncharacteristic for a series launching this year.

I hope I'm wrong, though--it is my most anticipated game ever, but I still can't see it coming out this year.

Deku · Mar 25, 2006

JoshuaJSlone said:
DS will do better than it did in 2005 for most of the year, sure... but it's been the hot new thing, and nearly 2 million of those sales were in December alone. With PS3 and Revolution as new competition, I think it's less than certain DS will duplicate or better those December numbers, which would be the key to reaching something like 6 million.

That's like saying the sky is blue. A successful console will have stronger sales as it matures in the market, not weaker or flat sales.

cvxfreak · Mar 25, 2006

Deku said:
That's like saying the sky is blue. A successful console will have stronger sales as it matures in the market, not weaker or flat sales.

Mostly. The Japanese GameCube is an exception to the rule, though.

EDIT: Nevermind, I should have taken the "successful" in the first time.

ethelred · Mar 25, 2006

Jiggy37 said:
That sounds too much like speculation to me, especially with Metroid Dread on there. We've got zero screenshots of Pokemon D/P, which would be really uncharacteristic for a series launching this year.

I hope I'm wrong, though--it is my most anticipated game ever, but I still can't see it coming out this year.

I don't know if it's speculation. It is the official magazine, so presumably they're in the know about some stuff at least. And Metroid Dread was, subsequently in that same thread, confirmed by Gaybrush, and has since been confirmed by IGN, too.

As to zero screenshots, I can only imagine we'll see something at E3.

jarrod · Mar 25, 2006

cvxfreak said:
Mostly. The Japanese GameCube is an exception to the rule, though.

But not the only one...

Archie · Mar 25, 2006

cvxfreak said:
EDIT: Nevermind, I should have taken the "successful" in the first time.

:lol

ethelred · Mar 25, 2006

jarrod said:
But not the only one...

I was trying to be dignified and not take that cheap shot.

Mrbob · Mar 25, 2006

jarrod said:
But not the only one...

For some reason you want so badly for the PSP to be remembered as the portable GC, its success in the west must be killing you slowly on the inside.

jarrod · Mar 26, 2006

Mrbob said:
For some reason you want so badly for the PSP to be remembered as the portable GC, its success in the west must be killing you slowly on the inside.

Naw... if anything I'd say it's shaping up to be more of a portable Genesis/MD than anything.

Mrbob · Mar 26, 2006

jarrod said:
Naw... if anything I'd say it's shaping up to be more of a portable Genesis/MD than anything.

Yeah, portable Genesis, I agree. Hopefully the PSP2 doesn't become the portable Saturn.

EmCeeGramr · Mar 26, 2006

Why do people keep mentioning donkey kong ds bound? Nothing has been announced/rumored/hinted at.

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