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January 2013 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes February 11

B

Baconsammy

Banned
Striek said:
Interesting, is MS cheekily including Wii U in the "current gen"? Because they had 49% last year.
Click to expand...

Not sure they're being cheeky, but they're most likely counting Wii U and not Wii anymore.

noobie said:
so wot they will say when XBOX 720 launches? i mean if they are including WiiU in current gen.. then they wil not include it with XBOX 720.. or they will have to modify their statement and say current and last gen..
Click to expand...

Not everyone fights the console wars. To them generations most likely just means what's currently the newest release for each of the big 3.
 
N

noobie

Banned
RamzaIsCool said:
44% of the current gen market? You know, nowadays that could mean anything.
Click to expand...

so wot they will say when XBOX 720 launches? i mean if they are including WiiU in current gen.. then they wil not include it with XBOX 720.. or they will have to modify their statement and say current and last gen..
 
P

pieatorium

Member
allan-bh said:
If they would include the Wii U, I think the fall in market share would be greater than 49% to 44%
Click to expand...

Depends, the Wii U didn't make up for the Wii's drop in January for the UK by a long shot. It seems to be doing better in the US but a drop on both the PS3 and Wii is likely.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
I don't think they've stopped counting Wii just because we've stopped predicting Wii.

In any event non-Microsoft home consoles sold ~358K combined. So yes, they must be including the Wii U.
 
A

AdventureRacing

Member
allan-bh said:
If they would include the Wii U, I think the fall in market share would be greater than 49% to 44%

Or maybe not because Wii really must be very weak
Click to expand...

It pretty much can't be anything else. The wii will have almost certainly tanked and unless the PS3 had a huge unexpected bump i don't see what else it could be.
 
D

donny2112

Member
1-D_FTW said:
Seems hard to believe Wii or PS3 would have gained that much share. So my money is on yes.
Click to expand...

Would leave ~358K for PS3/Wii/Wii U. Using the GAF_Agg numbers for PS3/Wii U, that'd leave 86K for Wii. If Wii was only ~50K, that'd just mean that PS3+Wii U was ~35K over the GAF_Agg numbers. Reasonable.
 
1

1-D_FTW

Member
AdventureRacing said:
It pretty much can't be anything else. The wii will have almost certainly tanked and unless the PS3 had a huge unexpected bump i don't see what else it could be.
Click to expand...

Agreed. Wii had a nice bump in Nov/Dec because of the fantastic Christmas bundles, but it's going to absolutely crater in this new year.
 
F

frankie_baby

Member
wii is not current gen, i doubt they're counting it, ms love to make their numbers and percentages look as good as possible, i could easily be wrong though
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Actually, I just checked.

Microsoft's unit share last year wasn't 49%.

It was 44%.

For reference since the link in the OP doesn't actually provide it I think:
Jan 2012:
360 = 270K
PS3 = 190K
Wii = 150K

Oh and 3DS = 170K.
 
S

Seda

Member
Call of Duty continues to top the charts as 2013 gets off to slow start

After an abysmal 2012 for video games retail, US game sales in January were perhaps slightly more encouraging (depending on your viewpoint), as total industry sales climbed nine percent to $834.7 million. Hardware sales increased four percent to $205 million while software (including PC games) was flat at almost $393 million. Accessories, however, jumped 30 percent to $256.6 million, thanks to Skylanders and point or subscription cards.

The news is tempered somewhat by the fact that January was a five-week reporting period for The NPD Group. NPD explained that a 'Leap Week' is needed every five to six years "in order to preserve the seasonal integrity of the months." The last adjustment was made in January 2007, and NPD said this is "consistent with the US-based National Retail Federation's (NRF) published Retailer Calendar, which most retailers and NPD follow."

So in truth, software sales for the month, when normalized for a normal reporting period, were actually down 19 percent, NPD explained.

With the exception of Capcom's new Devil May Cry, January saw no major releases to speak of on the top ten, so 2012's year-end hot sellers like Call of Duty and Far Cry 3 continued to top the charts. That said, new releases did fare a bit better than in past January periods. "While the number of new SKUs was relatively consistent for January 2013 compared to January 2012, performance of new SKUs this year versus last was six times as high, lifted by the success of titles like DMC: Devil May Cry and Ni No Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch," observed NPD industry analyst Liam Callahan.

From a publisher's standpoint, Ubisoft fared quite well with three of the top ten - see the full chart below.
Click to expand...

G0mKgRP.jpg


http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2013-02-14-us-game-sales-climb-9-percent-in-5-week-january-period
 
UberTag

UberTag

Member
Apparent winners of the WiiU January sales sweepstakes:

1) Rand6 - 70K
2) rawk - 75K
2) Snowden's Secret - 75K
4) UberTag - 79K

<high fives all around>

We did good guys!
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
jvm said:
[360] 250K
[3DS] 165K
[PS3] 150K
[WIU] 120K
[PSV] 55K
Click to expand...
So that's 31K + 20K + 50K + 63K + 20K = 184K.

Jebus. :(

donny2112 said:
NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - Jan-2013

1. 360 - 229K
2. 3DS - 177K
3. PS3 - 154K
4. WIU - 118K
5. PSV - 52K

Edit:
As a reminder, PSV results will not count toward the individual systems point calculations. It will count toward cardinal ranking bonus and units/unit Top Ten bonus, though.
Click to expand...
Severely underestimated Xbox 360 and PS3, while overestimating everything else. Off on Wii U by 2x in aggregate.
 
E

Elios83

Member
Elios83 said:
[360] 225K
[3DS] 180K
[PS3] 160K
[PSV] 60K
[WIU] 120K
Click to expand...

My predictions this month are a total disaster :D Good way to begin the new year!
I understimated PS3 and 360 considerably, thought that 3DS would sell more than PS3 and then there's the WiiU shock. Ironically my best guess was Vita, numbers are so low that you can't go too wrong even if you expected double the actual sales :D
 
D

donny2112

Member
jvm said:
Here are my personal estimates. :) Except in the cases where figures are known, rounded to the nearest 5K.

Xbox 360: 281K
PS3: 200K
3DS: 145K
WiiU: 57K
PSV: 35K
Click to expand...

Will go with these. The only two unknown ones are PS3 and 3DS, and the other guess by "A Human Becoming" was the same for 3DS and 2.5K difference on PS3. Since normally would go with jvm for the missing numbers (if there's a small enough range), will just go with these this month.

Just wanted to explain the reasoning here. :)

NeoGAF Prediction Results - January 2013

Units

1. rawk - 109,000
2. JavyOO7 - 124,000
3. Baconsammy - 129,000
4. donny2112 - 144,000
5. Crawl - 157,000
6. MyAbsolution - 163,000
7. Nemo - 164,000
8. Madao - 174,000
9. Jesse2040 - 179,000
10. allan-bh - 184,000
10. jvm - 184,000
12. ItWasMeantToBe19 - 189,000
12. pitseleh - 189,000
14. Rand6 - 194,000
14. Snowden's Secret - 194,000
14. michaelius - 194,000
14. rayner - 194,000
18. UberTag - 195,000
19. DaBoss - 199,000
19. EMT0 - 199,000
21. Pyscho_Mantis - 204,000
22. Bruno MB - 207,000
23. GAF_Agg - 207,500
24. Jamix012 - 209,000
24. Road - 209,000
24. sacrificengineer - 209,000
24. samus4ever - 209,000
28. Brakara - 214,000
28. GulAtiCa - 214,000
28. NateDrake - 214,000
31. doicare - 216,000
32. Des0lar - 217,000
32. Goldmund - 217,000
34. DrWong - 219,000
34. Elios83 - 219,000
34. KillerMan91 - 219,000
34. ohlawd - 219,000
38. C4Lukins - 221,000
39. Dynopia - 224,000
39. Jonsoncao - 224,000
39. Strike - 224,000
39. confuziz - 224,000
39. shinra-bansho - 224,000
44. airmangataosenai - 229,000
45. skedar897 - 230,000
46. Megadragon15 - 234,000
47. BlackJace - 238,000
48. Hiro_Kunimi_80 - 243,000
49. archnemesis - 246,000
50. Pachter - 249,000
51. Colonel Mustard - 250,000
52. Zero-Crescent - 257,000
53. Gianni Merryman - 263,000
54. perfectchaos007 - 269,000
55. BLaZiN PRopHeT - 274,000
55. Drago - 274,000
55. MasterSheen - 274,000
58. Subaru - 284,000
58. pieatorium - 284,000
60. MatthewB92 - 289,000
61. Hammer24 - 331,000


Points
Code: 
     January 2013                    Overall 2013 Top (1/1)
01.  rawk                   109.06   rawk                   109.06
02.  JavyOO7                 97.13   JavyOO7                 97.13
03.  Baconsammy              89.64   Baconsammy              89.64
04.  MyAbsolution            88.38   MyAbsolution            88.38
05.  Crawl                   81.22   Crawl                   81.22
06.  allan-bh                78.15   allan-bh                78.15
07.  Rand6                   76.17   Rand6                   76.17
08.  airmangataosenai        74.78   airmangataosenai        74.78
09.  Pyscho_Mantis           74.74   Pyscho_Mantis           74.74
10.  donny2112               74.57   donny2112               74.57
11.  EMT0                    71.96   EMT0                    71.96
12.  Megadragon15            71.57   Megadragon15            71.57
13.  Madao                   71.18   Madao                   71.18
14.  Nemo                    69.34   Nemo                    69.34
15.  Snowden's Secret        69.30   Snowden's Secret        69.30
16.  Hiro_Kunimi_80          67.83   Hiro_Kunimi_80          67.83
17.  UberTag                 67.27   UberTag                 67.27
18.  michaelius              66.56   michaelius              66.56
19.  samus4ever              66.40   samus4ever              66.40
20.  perfectchaos007         65.10   perfectchaos007         65.10
21.  sacrificengineer        64.79   sacrificengineer        64.79
22.  GulAtiCa                63.70   GulAtiCa                63.70
23.  jvm                     63.54   jvm                     63.54
24.  DaBoss                  62.59   DaBoss                  62.59
25.  Jesse2040               62.58   Jesse2040               62.58
26.  Road                    62.46   Road                    62.46
27.  pitseleh                62.46   pitseleh                62.46
28.  C4Lukins                61.80   C4Lukins                61.80
29.  Jamix012                61.55   Jamix012                61.55
30.  Bruno MB                61.39   Bruno MB                61.39
31.  rayner                  60.82   rayner                  60.82
32.  confuziz                60.04   confuziz                60.04
33.  ItWasMeantToBe19        59.49   ItWasMeantToBe19        59.49
34.  KillerMan91             59.46   KillerMan91             59.46
35.  Brakara                 59.04   Brakara                 59.04
36.  Elios83                 58.98   Elios83                 58.98
37.  doicare                 58.65   doicare                 58.65
38.  Goldmund                58.56   Goldmund                58.56
39.  BlackJace               58.40   BlackJace               58.40
40.  Drago                   58.28   Drago                   58.28
41.  skedar897               57.83   skedar897               57.83
42.  Jonsoncao               57.76   Jonsoncao               57.76
43.  NateDrake               57.73   NateDrake               57.73
44.  BLaZiN PRopHeT          57.71   BLaZiN PRopHeT          57.71
45.  MasterSheen             57.59   MasterSheen             57.59
46.  ohlawd                  57.20   ohlawd                  57.20
47.  Pachter                 56.55   Pachter                 56.55
48.  shinra-bansho           56.51   shinra-bansho           56.51
49.  Strike                  56.43   Strike                  56.43
50.  Zero-Crescent           56.33   Zero-Crescent           56.33

Congratulations, rawk! :D
 
Bruno MB

Bruno MB

Member
I didn't even get the hardware ranking right, a truly awful month.

As always thanks to donny2121 and everybody involved in this.

Congratulations to rawk!, it wasn't an easy month to predict.

Hopefully next month will be better though I'm afraid I will overestimate 3DS one more time xD
 
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