As hiska-kun mentioned, I don't think 3DS will drop that much and will stay above 200k+.

Nirolak said:

If it exists, it's a very low priority project below Smash, updating their f2p games, and presumably Tekken 7.

Click to expand...

Personally, I wonder if the lukewarm reception to Tag 2 might have affected some things.

MechaX said:

Personally, I wonder if the lukewarm reception to Tag 2 might have affected some things.

Click to expand...

If anything, the lukewarm reception to SFxT is probably the culprit.

I think 3DS drop will be in the 10% at max and I don't think Wii U will have a +40% drop.

Nirolak said:

I can understand why publishers are increasingly more risk averse and less interested in going outside their major success stories.

Click to expand...

While hardware sales are going low by a large amount, software isn't and that shouldn't be the reason for publishers avoiding risks.

^ Ive noticed that. Software performance has remained somewhat consistent despite severe hardware performance drops.

AmanoBuff said:

Nope. The Vita version was always below. The only time it topped the PS3 version was for a few days when the PS3 version preorder didn't had a discount. The moment it got its discount back, it only took a few hours for it to overtake the Vita version again.

Click to expand...

So the Vita version was always below, but not always below?

Anyway, the Vita version was often above the PS3 even when both were on discount. I watched it over many weeks.

About the magical link found by Captain Smoker, I'm pretty sure it's legit. I was able to got some data directly from the Nintendo IR service few weeks ago (and made an article with them here, with many charts).

Here is the data I got, as of september 2013:

Zelda TP (Wii) 7.2 million
Zelda SS (Wii) 3.66 million
Zelda PH (DS) 4.76 million
Zelda ST (DS) 2.95 million
Link's Crossbow (Wii) 5.79 million
SMG2 (Wii) 7.33 million
Metroid Prime 3 (Wii) 1.41 million
Fire Emblem (3DS) 1.29 million
Metroid Prime Hunters: "a little over one million units"
DKCR (Wii) "over 6 million"

Outside of Metroid Prime 3, which is strange, everything fits perfectly.

But I also think we must not make a thread about it to keep that source.

leatherhat said:

Why are people predicting vita to move up? I doubt ffx will offset the usual decline this week.

Click to expand...

Historically, Sony systems hold very well for week 52, with FF coming out, the systems will mostly likely get a positive gain since the drops are usually very low. Still, Wii U sales will easily be bigger than Vita's numbers next week, probably even bigger than PS3/Vita combined.

MechaX said:

Personally, I wonder if the lukewarm reception to Tag 2 might have affected some things.

Click to expand...

Yeah I think SFxT is the bigger reason, if Bandai-Namco had any plans to borrow mechanics from that game for TxSF, it would have to be scratched and redone all over since the reception to SFxT wasn't that great. I think its smart of them to move the project as far away from SFxT as possible, maybe after the next Tekken or SF mainline comes out and is recieved well.

The_lascar said:

About the magical link found by Captain Smoker, I'm pretty sure it's legit. I was able to got some data directly from the Nintendo IR service few weeks ago (and made an article with them here, with many charts).

Here is the data I got, as of september 2013:

Zelda TP (Wii) 7.2 million
Zelda SS (Wii) 3.66 million
Zelda PH (DS) 4.76 million
Zelda ST (DS) 2.95 million
Link's Crossbow (Wii) 5.79 million
SMG2 (Wii) 7.33 million
Metroid Prime 3 (Wii) 1.41 million
Fire Emblem (3DS) 1.29 million
Metroid Prime Hunters: "a little over one million units"
DKCR (Wii) "over 6 million"

Outside of Metroid Prime 3, which is strange, everything fits perfectly.

But I also think we must not make a thread about it to keep that source.

Click to expand...

an extra 130k units from July-September?
not bad at all

DaBoss said:

While hardware sales are going low by a large amount, software isn't and that shouldn't be the reason for publishers avoiding risks.

Click to expand...

BlackJace said:

^ Ive noticed that. Software performance has remained somewhat consistent despite severe hardware performance drops.

Click to expand...

Out of curiosity, in case anyone knows, what's the cutoff bar for top 20 software sales in 2007 on DS versus the top 20 for 2013 on 3DS for software released that year?

I ask this because polarization is also a major reason for software support (in terms of volume from high end publishers) to start waning, since if the things that really sell are only those at the top, then there's not much incentive to target anything but the top positions.

Edit:

Using Garaph I get 326,798 for the 20th best selling DS game that released in 2007 by the end of the year, and 259,062 for the 30th highest.

2012 on the 3DS gives me 231,021 for 20th, and 130,685 for the 30th best selling, but I don't know when they stopped updating, and 2013 is the year there were really tons and tons of 3DSes coming into it.

Edit 2:

Hmm, I should redo that cutting off the sales at the end of the year.

Edit 3:

Using the new methodology:

DS in 2007 software:
#20: 303,461
#30: 200,192

3DS in 2012 software:
#20: 213,746
#30: 130,685

Though 2013 would be a much better comparison point obviously.

hongcha said:

So the Vita version was always below, but not always below?

Anyway, the Vita version was often above the PS3 even when both were on discount. I watched it over many weeks.

Click to expand...

I explained myself pretty clearly. Vita version was always below when there was price parity (both versions with an equal discount). Then, for a few days the PS3 version was at full price (more expensive than the Vita one), THEN the Vita version surpassed the PS3 one. Lastly, when the PS3 version regained its discount and was AGAIN at the same price as the Vita one, it went above the Vita one, AGAIN. Not that hard to understand.

I followed this for several weeks as well. I even asked in past MC threads when the Vita version was pre sold and no longer up for preorder. When there was price parity, even until the day of release the PS3 version has ranked above the Vita one on Amazon. So you either didn't follow this as thoroughly as you think or not at all.

MechaX said:

Personally, I wonder if the lukewarm reception to Tag 2 might have affected some things.

Click to expand...

No. If anything, it's Street Fighter x Tekken that did.

Nirolak said:

Out of curiosity, in case anyone knows, what's the cutoff bar for top 20 software sales in 2007 on DS versus the top 20 for 2013 on 3DS for software released that year?

I ask this because polarization is also a major reason for software support (in terms of volume from high end publishers) to start waning, since if the things that really sell are only those at the top, then there's not much incentive to target anything but the top positions.

Click to expand...

Famitsu 2007 - Top 30 NDS (Only new releases)

01. [NDS] Pokémon Mystery Dungeon: Explorers of Time / Darkness (Pokémon Co.) {2007.09.13} - 1.256.516
02. [NDS] Mario Party DS (Nintendo) {2007.11.08} - 1.232.644
03. [NDS] Dragon Quest IV: Chapters of the Chosen (Square Enix) {2007.11.22} - 1.052.827
04. [NDS] Yoshi's Island DS (Nintendo) {2007.03.08} - 896.814
05. [NDS] The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass (Nintendo) {2007.06.23} - 839.395
06. [NDS] Professor Layton and the Curious Village (Level 5) {2007.02.15} - 765.758
07. [NDS] Flash Focus: Vision Training in Minutes a Day (Nintendo) {2007.05.31} - 729.313
08. [NDS] Professor Layton and the Diabolical Box (Level 5) {2007.11.29} - 615.338
09. [NDS] Practise English! (Nintendo) {2007.03.29} - 610.901
10. [NDS] Final Fantasy XII: Revenant Wings (Square Enix) {2007.04.26} - 524.009
11. [NDS] Apollo Justice: Ace Attorney (Capcom) {2007.04.12} - 515.417
12. [NDS] Final Fantasy IV (Square Enix) {2007.12.20} - 447.087
13. [NDS] Itadaki Street DS: Dragon Quest & Super Mario (Square Enix) {2007.06.21} - 413.537
14. [NDS] Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: Rings of Fate (Square Enix) {2007.08.23} - 389.845
15. [NDS] Ganbaru Watashi no Kakei Diary (Nintendo) {2007.07.12} - 369.459
16. [NDS] Kotoba no Puzzle Mojipittan DS (Bandai Namco) {2007.03.15} - 364.198
17. [NDS] Momotarou Dentetsu DS: Tokyo & Japan (Hudson) {2007.04.26} - 334.044
18. [NDS] Mario Vs. Donkey Kong 2: March of the Minis (Nintendo) {2007.04.12} - 306.176
19. [NDS] Harvest Moon: Island of Happiness (Marvelous Entertainment) {2007.02.01} - 304.348
20. [NDS] Wario: Master of Disguise (Nintendo) {2007.01.18} - 289.872
21. [NDS] Final Fantasy Tactics A2: Grimoire of the Rift (Square Enix) {2007.10.25} - 287.871
22. [NDS] Taiko Drum Master DS: Touch de Doko don! (Bandai Namco) {2007.07.26} - 278.998
23. [NDS] Super Robot Wars W (Banpresto) {2007.03.01} - 278.027
24. [NDS] Picross DS (Nintendo) {2007.01.25} - 266.641
25. [NDS] SD Gundam G Generation: Cross Drive (Bandai Namco) {2007.08.09} - 263.076
26. [NDS] Mega Man Star Force 2: Zerker x Ninja / Zerker x Saurian (Capcom) {2007.11.22} - 225.221
27. [NDS] Moero! Nekketsu Rhythm Damashii: Osu! Tatakae! Ouendan 2 (Nintendo) {2007.05.17} - 218.248
28. [NDS] Hotel Dusk: Room 215 (Nintendo) {2007.01.25} - 212.712
29. [NDS] Tamagotchi Connection: Corner Shop 3 (Bandai Namco) {2007.09.27} - 204.744
30. [NDS] TOEIC Test DS Training (IE Institute) {2007.03.29} - 199.793

Famitsu 2012 - Top 30 3DS (Only new releases)

01. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf (Nintendo) {2012.11.08} - 2.286.977
02. [3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 (Nintendo) {2012.07.28} - 1.780.493
03. [3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Terry's Wonderland 3D (Square Enix) {2012.05.31} - 899.410
04. [3DS] Fire Emblem: Awakening (Nintendo) {2012.04.19} - 453.672
05. [3DS] Paper Mario: Sticker Star (Nintendo) {2012.12.06} - 391.078
06. [3DS] Taiko Drum Master: Chibi Dragon to Fushigina Orb (Bandai Namco Games) {2012.07.05 - 352.023
07. [3DS] Run For Money Tousouchuu: Shijou Saikyou no Hunter-tachi kara Nigek (Bandai Namco Games) {2012.07.05} - 351.523
08. [3DS] Kingdom Hearts 3D: Dream Drop Distance (Square Enix) {2012.03.29} - 341.958
09. [3DS] Pokémon Mystery Dungeon: Gates to Infinity (Pokémon Co.) {2012.11.23} - 337.999
10. [3DS] Kid Icarus: Uprising (Nintendo) {2012.03.22} - 327.816
11. [3DS] Mario Tennis Open (Nintendo) {2012.05.24} - 327.154
12. [3DS] Inazuma Eleven Go 2: Chrono Stone Neppuu / Raimei (Level 5) {2012.12.13} - 314.390
13. [3DS] Resident Evil Revelations (Capcom) {2012.01.26} - 283.235
14. [3DS] Bravely Default: Flying Fairy (Square Enix) {2012.10.11} - 274.972
15. [3DS] Style Savvy: Trendsetters (Nintendo) {2012.09.27} - 253.897
16. [3DS] Harvest Moon: A New Beginning (Marvelous AQL) {2012.02.23} - 232.912
17. [3DS] Professor Layton vs. Ace Attorney (Level 5) {2012.11.29} - 232.168
18. [3DS] Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games (Nintendo) {2012.03.01} - 231.021
19. [3DS] Brain Age: Concentration Training (Nintendo) {2012.07.28} - 213.746
20. [3DS] Kobito Dukan: Kobito Kansatsu Set (Nippon Columbia) {2012.07.26} - 212.678
21. [3DS] Little Battlers eXperience: Baku Boost (Level 5) {2012.07.05} - 180.873
22. [3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy (Square Enix) {2012.02.16} - 163.098
23. [3DS] Rune Factory 4 (Marvelus AQL) {2012.07.19} - 156.435
24. [3DS] Hatsune Miku and Future Stars: Project Mirai (SEGA) {2012.03.08} - 153.247
25. [3DS] Art Academy: Lessons for Everyone (Nintendo) {2012.09.13} - 144.106
26. [3DS] New Love Plus (Konami) {2012.02.14} - 135.023
27. [3DS] Etrian Odyssey IV: Legends of the Titan (Atlus) {2012.07.05} - 134.499
28. [3DS] Fantasy Life (Level 5) {2012.12.27} - 134.008
29. [3DS] Project X Zone (Bandai Namco Games) {2012.10.11} - 130.685
30. [3DS] Medabots 7: Metabee / Rokusho (Rocket Company) {2012.09.13} - 107.751

Famitsu 2013 - Top 30 3DS (Only new releases)

01. [3DS] Pokémon X / Y (Pokémon Co.) {2013.10.12} - 3.820.346
02. [3DS] Monster Hunter 4 (Capcom) {2013.09.14} - 3.252.974
03. [3DS] Tomodachi Collection: Shin Seikatsu (Nintendo) {2013.04.18} - 1.551.643
04. [3DS] Dragon Quest VII: Eden no Senshitachi (Square Enix) {2013.02.07} - 1.223.268
05. [3DS] Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon (Nintendo) {2013.03.20} - 969.310
06. [3DS] PazuDora Z: Puzzle & Dragons Z (GungHo Online Entertainment) {2013.12.12} - 806.729
07. [3DS] Disney Magic Castle: My Happy Life (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.08.01} - 402.135
08. [3DS] Mario & Luigi: Dream Team (Nintendo) {2013.07.18} - 379.226
09. [3DS] Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney - Dual Destinies (Capcom) {2013.07.25} - 345.704
10. [3DS] Youkai Watch (Level 5) {2013.07.11} - 267.706
11. [3DS] Donkey Kong Country Returns 3D (Nintendo) {2013.06.13} - 250.792
12. [3DS] Shin Megami Tensei IV (Atlus) {2013.05.23} - 248.954
13. [3DS] Dragon Ball Heroes: Ultimate Mission (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.02.28} - 245.786
14. [3DS] Professor Layton and the Azran Legacies (Level 5) {2013.02.28} - 231.353
15. [3DS] Super Robot Wars UX (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.03.14} - 169.683
16. [3DS] Battle for Money Sentouchuu: Densetsu no Shinobi to Survival Battle! (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.10.17} - 166.595
17. [3DS] One Piece: Unlimited World Red (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.11.21} - 164.178
18. [3DS] Attack on Titan: Jinrui Saigo no Tsubasa (Spike Chunsoft) {2013.12.05} - 147.782
19. [3DS] Aikatsu! Futari no My Princess (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.11.21} - 147.596
20. [3DS] Inazuma Eleven Go Galaxy: Big Bang / Supernova (Level 5) {2013.12.05} - 143.301
21. [3DS] Etrian Odyssey Untold: The Millenium Girl (Atlus) {2013.06.27} - 115.915
22. [3DS] Hatsune Miku: Project Mirai 2 (SEGA) {2013.11.28} - 114.591
23. [3DS] Cardfight!! Vanguard: Ride to Victory!! (FuRyu) {2013.04.11} - 70.029
24. [3DS] Fantasy Life Link! (Level 5) {2013.07.25} - 67.256
25. [3DS] Little Battlers eXperience Wars (Level 5) {2013.10.31} - 65.431
26. [3DS] Little Battlers eXperience W Super Custom (Level 5) {2013.07.18} - 64.885
27. [3DS] Pretty Rhythm: My Deco Rainbow Wedding (Takara Tomy) {2013.03.20} - 64.769
28. [3DS] One Piece: Romance Dawn (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.08.08} - 62.403
29. [3DS] Daigasso! Band Brothers P (Nintendo) {2013.11.14} - 61.769
30. [3DS] Digimon World Reigitize Decode (Bandai Namco) {2013.06.27} - 61.469

huh that 2013 list looks weird....is it really that low?

I never really think of Zelda as a series that sell millions of copies per release any more

does this still happen when you look at worldwide numbers is Zelda still a million seller?

Smiles and Cries said:

I never really think of Zelda as a series that sell millions of copies per release any more

does this still happen when you look at worldwide numbers is Zelda still a million seller?

Click to expand...

yes, easily
really I'm sure you could just take NPD numbers for every Zelda game and it'd be well over a million, but details

Smiles and Cries said:

I never really think of Zelda as a series that sell millions of copies per release any more

does this still happen when you look at worldwide numbers is Zelda still a million seller?

Click to expand...

I think Skyward Sword (which did badly by console Zelda standards) did like 3-4 million?

AmanoBuff said:

I explained myself pretty clearly. Vita version was always below when there was price parity (both versions with an equal discount). Then, for a few days the PS3 version was at full price (more expensive than the Vita one), THEN the Vita version surpassed the PS3 one. Lastly, when the PS3 version regained its discount and was AGAIN at the same price as the Vita one, it went above the Vita one, AGAIN. Not that hard to understand.

I followed this for several weeks as well. I even asked in past MC threads when the Vita version was pre sold and no longer up for preorder. When there was price parity, even until the day of release the PS3 version has ranked above the Vita one on Amazon. So you either didn't follow this as thoroughly as you think or not at all.

Click to expand...

You're free to believe whatever you want, but I know what I saw. No need to get all up in arms about it all.

theprodigy said:

yes, easily
really I'm sure you could just take NPD numbers for every Zelda game and it'd be well over a million, but details

Click to expand...

Jamix012 said:

I think Skyward Sword (which did badly by console Zelda standards) did like 3-4 million?

Click to expand...

NPD is kinda hard to follow since games only seem to rank for 1 month if they make the top 10

but if SS was 3-4 million I guess I must have been dreaming that Zelda has been slipping below 1 million recently

hongcha said:

You're free to believe whatever you want, but I know what I saw. No need to get all up in arms about it all.

Click to expand...

Well, I also know what I saw. But there's no point in arguing about it, so let's just leave it at that.

Thorgal said:

That's quite a steep drop for 3DS in your prediction .

Should it not go even higher or close to this weeks numbers ?

Click to expand...

Basing it on last year's trend

Bruno MB said:

data

Click to expand...

Thanks!

Huh, that polarized *way* more than I expected going from 2012 -> 2013 when comparing the 10, 20, and 30 spots.

2007 -> 2012 was more in line with what I was thinking.

But yeah, basically the same thing happened on consoles in the West where if you weren't a top 20 game, you weren't making any money unless you had really low development costs.

However, very low cost/low sales games usually aren't seen as a worthwhile use of money by bigger pubs when they can use that staff elsewhere.

Roboleon said:

Basing it on last year's trend

Click to expand...

But last year did not have MH4 . Pokemon and PDZ triple combo .


Ill predict 200.000 for 3DS.

Nirolak said:

Thanks!

Huh, that polarized *way* more than I expected going from 2012 -> 2013 when comparing the 10, 20, and 30 spots.

2007 -> 2012 was more in line with what I was thinking.

But yeah, basically the same thing happened on consoles in the West where if you weren't a top 20 game, you weren't making any money unless you had really low development costs.

However, very low cost/low sales games usually aren't seen as a worthwhile use of money by bigger pubs when they can use that staff elsewhere.

Click to expand...

I'd prefer to wait Famitsu top 100 / 500 for a better veridict on 2013, with sales updated for lots of titles.

Btw, can anyone post 3DS eShop All-Time chart in Japan? We basically have Gunman Clive now, so...

The_lascar said:

Metroid Prime 3 (Wii) 1.41 million

Click to expand...

In march 2008 it was at 1.31m. Sales died quickly for a Nintendo game.

That's sad because MP 3 is amazing.

Smiles and Cries said:

I never really think of Zelda as a series that sell millions of copies per release any more

does this still happen when you look at worldwide numbers is Zelda still a million seller?

Click to expand...

When was Zelda NOT a million seller WW?

http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?p=94941790#post94941790

Zelda is fine. Skyward Sword was released too late for bigger sales, is just that.

Roboleon said:

Basing it on last year's trend

Click to expand...

And you forgot reading this.

hiska-kun said:

Just checked some sales data to see what will happen the next couple of weeks.

Usually, the biggest days of the year are December 22nd, 23rd, and 24th. Usually this days are located in week 51, and that's why is the biggest week in the year. But this year the biggest days are split between week 51 and 52.

So I checked a year with the same distribution of days, and that was 2002 (more than 10 years ago). The sales that time were like this (Famitsu numbers):

Week 51 2002 {16.12.2002 - 22.12.2002}

GBA - 303.834
PS2 - 157.759
GC - 66.410
XB - 8.176

Week 52 2002 {23.12.2002 - 29.12.2002}

GBA - 262.503
PS2 - 152.833
GC - 60.290
XB - 5.293

Week 1 2003 {30.12.2002 - 05.01.2003}

GBA - 316.675
PS2 - 193.758
GC - 71.945
XB - 9.063

So, it seems next week we'll face a smaller decline compared to other years, just because day 23rd and 24th are in week 52, and these are the busiest days.
But then on New Year Eve, Sales will go up, if it follows the same trend.

So maybe we can see a bigger week than this.

Click to expand...

If not 200k+, I don't think it will drop as much as below 150k.

theprodigy said:

an extra 130k units from July-September?
not bad at all

Click to expand...

That's quite good. It should/could sell even better from Oct. - Nov.

Who knows, maybe it could reach 1.500.000 units by the end of the year.


@The_lascar: Thanks!

Twilight Princess at 8.520.000 units overall, crazy how well it sold.

Smiles and Cries said:

NPD is kinda hard to follow since games only seem to rank for 1 month if they make the top 10

but if SS was 3-4 million I guess I must have been dreaming that Zelda has been slipping below 1 million recently

Click to expand...

A Link between Worlds should already be over a million worldwide.

I really hope it performs well to increase the sales of the series again after Skyward Sword, which is the modern Majora's Mask in terms of sales & additional hardware.

metalslimer said:

Sales shouldn't drop that hard

3DS- 180k
Vita- 65k
Wii U- 60k

Click to expand...

I don't think we're going to see such steep declines from the Wii U just yet, given that December 23rd and December 24th fall on Week 52, and the fact that the console actually has a bit of buzz surrounding it during this holiday season.

I credit Nintendo's first real attempt at seriously investing in marketing post-launch.

I'm predicting somewhere between 80K and 120K for Wii U sales next week.

I just realized how uninformed my previous post was. I was solely looking at the DS/3DS (which I seem to be wrong about) that I completely forgot about the huge decline from PS2 to PS3 in software. Then there is the PSP to PSV decline in software.

Though I think it is worth noting how:
a) some software that would have previously been available at retail, are now digital titles
b) there are less games being made for dedicated platforms than before

Aquamarine said:

I don't think we're going to see such steep declines from the Wii U just yet, given that December 23rd and December 24th fall on Week 52, and the fact that the console actually has a bit of buzz surrounding it during this holiday season.

I thank Nintendo's first real attempt at seriously investing in marketing post-launch.

I'm predicting somewhere between 80K and 120K for Wii U sales next week.

Click to expand...

I don't think Wii U will stay/rise (Famitsu/MC) at 120K, but I agree it should not drop below 80K. 95K MC / 105K Famitsu is my guess.

So from what I'm reading on the web both the PS3 and the Vita Twin Pack versions of FFX/X-2 seem to be out of stock in many shops, with the Vita standalone FFX also having some availability issues.

The Vita TP is also sold out on Amazon and FFX Vita only has 2 units left on stock.

So it looks like the collection is selling quite well overall. But I think SE might have underestimated the demand for the vita version.

When do shipment numbers become available?

I'm seeing Wii U at 100k and Vita under 50k.

flippedb said:

I'm seeing Wii U at 100k and Vita under 50k.

Click to expand...

I'm seeing the opposite . Wii U under 100k and Vita over 50k.

Thorgal said:

But last year did not have MH4 . Pokemon and PDZ triple combo .


Ill predict 200.000 for 3DS.

Click to expand...

You may be right! I'm probably wrong, and I certainly hope I am

theprodigy said:

huh that 2013 list looks weird....is it really that low?

Click to expand...

There's been a general decline in # of releases on 3DS compared to NDS days due to digital-only games + smartphone/tablet attrition + coalescing development around tentpole titles by publishers.

Mpl90 said:

I'd prefer to wait Famitsu top 100 / 500 for a better veridict on 2013, with sales updated for lots of titles.

Btw, can anyone post 3DS eShop All-Time chart in Japan? We basically have Gunman Clive now, so...

Click to expand...

Even if we assume 2013 goes up, I feel the trend is clear.

I mean let's just run the math for a second. Feel free to assume 2013 is less bad on the decline end that it seems.

Spot #1:
2007->2012: +82%
2012->2013: +67%

Spot #2:
2007->2012: +69%
2012->2013: +83%

Spot #10:
2007->2012: -37%
2012->2013: -18%

Spot #20:
2007->2012: -27%
2012->2013: -33%

Spot #30:
2007->2012: -46%
2012->2013: -43%

Now, if you're making Dragon Quest XI, this is wonderful news, as it's very likely your game will sell incredibly well.

If you're making a game that used to sell 160K (or, even more notably, titles that resemble games that used to sell 160K), now you might be worried that it will do 100K, which with such a low volume title, could be painful.

Toward this situation, you have four options:
1.) Pour in money and hope you sell the same or have a breakout success.
2.) Lower your budget to match your projected sales.
3.) Ask Sony for a subsidy and release on Vita instead.
4.) Don't make the game you were thinking of making.

Now, if you're a small developer and you don't have any other great franchises to go with, one of the first three options are your most likely choice. If you can't fund the project with one of those options however, you might choose option four and go look for contract work either doing mobile games (lots of venture capital and publisher interest there) or as support on someone else's project (like making art assets for Monster Hunter).

However, for big developers, they often just decide to spend their resources chasing the top spots, as those are what really effect their bottom line. If they could have been guaranteed 400-500K sales before and now think they'll only get 200-300K, it's often just not worth it for them anymore and they would rather focus on the game that's going to sell 3 million copies instead or a series that they feel very confident will maintain at the 400-500K+ level. They can also decide just to take the resources out of the 3DS arena all together and put them on a high growth, low risk sector like mobile, as the number of people needed to make a higher profile 3DS game might be able to make four or five low effort mobile games.

I think if we look at Capcom we can actually see a company that's responding to this like you would expect.

Their line-up so far has been Monster Hunter 3G, Monster Hunter 4, Ace Attorney 5, Resident Evil Mercs, Resident Evil Revelations, Street Fighter 4, Nazo Waku Yakata, Gaist Crusher, and E.X Troopers.

Nazo, E.X Troopers, and Gaist Crusher, their new-IP projects (yeah I know about the Lost Planet connection ), totally tanked. E.X Troopers and Nazo did not get new entries, and I would be surprised if Capcom keeps trying Gaist Crusher for much longer.

Resident Evil and Street Fighter, two series that used to not be on handhelds, performed okay, but seemingly not enough for Capcom to want to continue with them. This was presumably due to a combination of how much they sold, the level of investment, and their market research into how much demand there was for more.

Monster Hunter and Ace Attorney were huge hits, they've already announced they're working on another Ace Attorney title, and more Monster Hunter is guaranteed to show up on the 3DS. As of today they have zero titles announced for the platform, and I would be surprised to see too much else outside of the realm of surefire hits. Maybe Takumi's game given the success of Ace Attorney.

I feel it's notable to point out that Capcom announced lofty goals for Gaist Crusher as well when it was unveiled, along with reasserting them when announcing their tie-in products, so I suspect they were aiming for a major series here instead of a 100K hit (not that they got anywhere close to even that bar).

As a whole, we seem to be seeing them heavily targeting the top of the charts, and no longer holding interesting in the lower end. I feel this is actually rather rational for a big publisher that makes their money off of hits.

Now, this is hardly exclusive to the 3DS. Capcom is releasing basically nothing on Vita or Wii U because there basically aren't any major hits, and thus there isn't a high bar at the top to vie for.

On mobile, there are huge earners, and we see Capcom spending serious amounts of effort chasing it despite having notably mixed results. What attracts them though is that there are a lot of developers there having success, even if Capcom itself is not a major part of that.

In the West you can look at consoles as well and see the same pattern. EA went from releasing over 80 retail games a year to releasing 11-12 this fiscal year, because the only games that actually sell well enough for them to effect their bottom line and make sense relative to the level of investment are multi-million copy mega hits. Ubisoft, Activision, and Take-Two have all done the same.

Now, this doesn't necessarily mean that a platform is in trouble. As everyone pointed out, overall software sales are staying stable. It's just that the software that's actually selling is gravitating to the top while most of the rest are losing out.

What it does mean though is we're less and less likely to see risky titles, especially out of major publishers, including titles that would have never seemed risky before.

Where's the good sis Aqua?

[PS3] FF X/X-2 HD Remaster – 320pt
[3DS] Zelda – 276pt
[PSV] FF X/X-2 HD Remaster – 178pt

Comg Top 10: http://www.comgnet.com/ranking/

Sammy Samusu said:

Where's the good sis Aqua?

[PS3] FF X/X-2 HD Remaster – 320pt
[3DS] Zelda – 276pt
[PSV] FF X/X-2 HD Remaster ツインパック – 178pt

Comg Top 10: http://www.comgnet.com/ranking/

Click to expand...

I was delayed...will post it in a few minutes. :-(

No Tsutaya yet, but I'll post it when it releases.

Title, Last Week, This Week

Monster Hunter 4 - 100 > 107
Pokémon Y - 94 > 95
Animal Crossing - 46 > 52
New Mario Bros 2 - 46 > 48
Mario Kart7 - 43 > 53

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=94820524&postcount=527

Sammy Samusu said:

Where's the good sis Aqua?

[PS3] FF X/X-2 HD Remaster – 320pt
[3DS] Zelda – 276pt
[PSV] FF X/X-2 HD Remaster – 178pt

Comg Top 10: http://www.comgnet.com/ranking/

Click to expand...

It's ironic, because I have the process super automated...so all I had to do was get access to my computer and run some code. But, the exact moment I finally get to my computer after working late + NYC traffic, you make a post thinking that I'm not going to show up! That was quite an interesting coincidence.

Have seen so many ads for 3DS and Wii U games in the last three days. Lightning Returns, too. But some commercial breaks have been 60 to 80% ads for games on Nintendo platforms.

Sammy Samusu said:

Where's the good sis Aqua?

[PS3] FF X/X-2 HD Remaster – 320pt
[3DS] Zelda – 276pt
[PSV] FF X/X-2 HD Remaster – 178pt

Comg Top 10: http://www.comgnet.com/ranking/

Click to expand...

High numbers for Zelda

Sammy Samusu said:

Title, Last Week, This Week

Monster Hunter 4 - 100 > 107
Pokémon Y - 94 > 95
Animal Crossing - 46 > 52
New Mario Bros 2 - 46 > 48
Mario Kart7 - 43 > 53

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=94820524&postcount=527

Click to expand...

So it seems.
This year week 52 will be stronger than other years. Small drop for games and so others selling even better. I guess hardware should show a similar trend.

Adding a few more:

Battle for Money - 63 > 63
Friend Collection - 56 > 55
One Piece Red - 43 > 42

Aquamarine said:

Code:

[B][U]Comgnet Software Sales Rankings: Week 52, 2013 (Dec 23 - Dec 29)[/U][/B]

1. [3DS] PazuDora Z: Puzzle & Dragons Z – 331pt
[b]2. [PS3] Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD Remaster – 320pt[/b]
[b]3. [3DS] The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds – 276pt[/b]
[b]4. [PSV] Final Fantasy X/X-2 HD Remaster: Twin Pack – 178pt[/b]
5. [3DS] Monster Hunter 4 – 107pt
6. [PS3] New Dynasty Warriors: Gundam – 104pt
7. [3DS] Pokémon X – 97pt
8. [WIU] Super Mario 3D World – 95pt
9. [3DS] Pokémon Y – 95pt
10. [3DS] Battle For Money Sentouchuu: Densetsu no Shinobi no Survival Battle! – 63pt
11. [PS3] Drakengard 3 – 55pt
12. [3DS] Friend Collection: New Life – 55pt
13. [3DS] Mario Kart 7 – 53pt
14. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf – 52pt
15. [3DS] Hatsune Miku: Project Mirai 2 – 50pt
16. [3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 – 48pt
17. [3DS] Disney Magic Castle: My Happy Life – 48pt
18. [PS3] Call of Duty: Ghosts (Dubbed) – 44pt
19. [3DS] One Piece: Unlimited World Red – 42pt
20. [PS3] Grand Theft Auto V – 34pt
[B]* New releases are in bold
* 1 pt = 1 sale
3DS - 13
PS3 - 5
PSV - 1
WIU - 1[/B]

No Tsutaya yet, but I'll post it when it releases.

Click to expand...

whoa it's a different avatar

will be interesting to see how FFX/Zelda does

StreetsAhead said:

Have seen so many ads for 3DS and Wii U games in the last three days. Lightning Returns, too. But some commercial breaks have been 60 to 80% ads for games on Nintendo platforms.

Click to expand...

T_T if only Nintendo prepared all the game first before releasing this system.

hiska-kun said:

So it seems.
This year week 52 will be stronger than other years. Small drop for games and so others selling even better. I guess hardware should show a similar trend.

Adding a few more:

Battle for Money - 63 > 63
Friend Collection - 56 > 55
One Piece Red - 43 > 42

Click to expand...

It seems you were right with the whole "Week 52 contains December 23rd and December 24th" argument. Good call on that one.