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Because GAF demanded it... (Analyst): PS3 to Lead by 2011

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3643&Itemid=2

Boston-based research firm Yankee Group has forecasted that the PS3 will lead Xbox 360 and Wii in North American sales by 2011, with the Wii in a distant third.
ImageThe group predicts that the PS3 will capture 44 percent of cumulative console sales in North America by 2011, with 30 million units sold. Microsoft is expected to sell nearly 27 million units, taking up 40 percent of the market, while the Wii is forecasted to sell a little over 11 million units, accounting for just 16 percent of the market.

Yankee also believes that less total consoles will be sold in the next generation compared to the PS2, Xbox and GameCube generation as a result of higher-priced consoles. However, the firm did add that Microsoft is "well-positioned" to cut the price of the Xbox 360 in spring 2007, potentially undercutting the $500-$600 PS3 by a wider margin. This pricing pressure from Microsoft is likely to continue throughout the course of the PS3's lifecycle, according to Yankee. The Wii will have the lowest initial price out of the next generation of consoles, as Nintendo has said the console will not exceed $250 in North America.

The firm also noted the growing relevance of digital distribution through next generation consoles. Yankee analyst Michael Goodman commented, "With a growing installed base of connected consoles, content owners are beginning to recognize the potential video game consoles offer as a distribution channel. Additionally, these platforms will serve as a strong medium for advertising, validating the growing market for in-game and around game advertising."
 

Meier

Member
They really think that the Wii will only sell an average of 2.2 million a year over the next 5 years or so? Seems like a short-sighted analysis, but hey, you gotta have one statistical outlier or two to keep things interesting. ;)
 

Ulairi

Banned
I cannot wait to save these reports and then see if anyone can interview these guys when they're proven wrong. The Wiii won't sell nearly half as many units as the Gamecube.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
irfan said:
Even the best case scenario has Sony losing market share, how is it the best case scenario? :(


How cares about market share if you still make money?
 
I think digital distribution is a bit far off for us to be worrying about it.

Maybe on the advent of the PS5 (or whatever it's named launch), but not right now.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
People still think the Wii will do poorly?

The PS3 will still lead, I think. Sony just won't utterly dominate like this gen. I don't think they care-- it will mean 44 million Blu-Ray players are in people's houses.
 
Kung Fu Jedi said:
Seems about right. By 2011 Microsoft will be preparing to release the Xbox 720

By 2011 X720 will get its second (or maybe third) generation games. Or do you really expect the X360 to have a longer life than the original Xbox?
 

Beowvlf

Banned
Meier said:
They really think that the Wii will only sell an average of 2.2 million a year over the next 5 years or so? Seems like a short-sighted analysis, but hey, you gotta have one statistical outlier or two to keep things interesting. ;)
I think some are hesitant to claim a Nintendo turn around due to their string of console performance declines since the NES. One interesting point that no analysts' seem to touch on is whether or not the stigma of 'why buy your child a Nintendo home console when you can buy them a Nintendo handheld' will change, as I think that's really been a big part of Nintendo's decline in the US over the past 10 years.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
11 million units in 13 months would be faster than the DS, I think.

Edit: and he's OBVIOUSLY talking about "north american sales."
 

Wollan

Member
Sony will be in the lead by late spring/summer next year I think. (Worldwide numbers I mean)

But the Wii is a wildcard.
 
This projection seems pretty dismissive of Wii's potential for more than niche success. I'm gonna laugh once Wii sells more than 12 million in NA before the end of 2008. Hell, it might even have a shot at doing that before end of 2007 depending on price and titles. And, given current information and seeing how shitty a job Sony's doing with PR on the thing since E3, I really see PS3 being closest to third overall by end of gen. The price is what's gonna end up keeping Sony outta the game both short- and long-term in NA.
 

Xrenity

Member
Wollan said:
Sony will be in the lead by late spring/summer next year I think.
I didn't expect you to say that.
Oh, I did

And you wouldn't expect me to say Wii won't be distant third.
 
MightyHedgehog said:
This projection seems pretty dismissive of Wii's potential for more than niche success. I'm gonna laugh once Wii sells more than 12 million in NA before the end of 2008. Hell, it might even have a shot at doing that before end of 2007 depending on price and titles. And, given current information and seeing how shitty a job Sony's doing with PR on the thing since E3, I really see PS3 being closest to third overall by end of gen. The price is what's gonna end up keeping Sony outta the game both short- and long-term in NA.

Joke post right? Right?
 

koam

Member
Is the end of 2006 going to be the first time in the past 10 years that sony's main console (i.e the ps3, not the ps2) will be second or even third place overall (possibly even worldwide)?

Edit: By overall, i don't mean LTD, i mean sales for all consoles (wii and x360) from the time the PS3 comes out until dec 31st 2006.
 
Kung Fu Jedi said:
Joke post right? Right?
No joke. This is honestly how I see it very possibly happening given what's happened up to now. I'm not willing to believe that Sony's previous two gens grants them immunity from falling to 3rd by end of gen here (NA) and very possibly overall.
 

Proelite

Member
The ps3 will lead when Microsoft discontinues the 360 and releases the next version of the xbox. That's in line with what I have been saying all along.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
koam said:
Is the end of 2006 going to be the first time in the past 10 years that sony's main console (i.e the ps3, not the ps2) will be second or even third place overall (possibly even worldwide)?

Edit: By overall, i don't mean LTD, i mean sales for all consoles (wii and x360) from the time the PS3 comes out until dec 31st 2006.

Well, that's kind of obvious considering the short supply of the PS3...

You'd have to look at dreamcast sales or maybe even N64 sales to see any type of comparison...but it's still meaningless.
 

puck1337

Member
Might happen this way, might not. It's really hard to tell this far out, because there's so much stuff that's still to come. The market could still be moved in dramatic ways by a handful of hot new IPs.
 

duk

Banned
Wollan said:
Sony will be in the lead by late spring/summer next year I think.

But the Wii is a wildcard.

by that time sony will only have produced around 6-7 million units (spring)
 

Campster

Do you like my tight white sweater? STOP STARING
mckmas8808 said:
How cares about market share if you still make money?

That's assuming the PS3 magically turns a profit. MS's game division is still hemorrhaging cash, and the PS3 certainly seems to be following the Microsoft mantra of "tons of power sold at a loss in order to gain market share so that some day we can actually turn a profit on these things."
 

Juice

Member
duk said:
wii will sell 11 million units by 08 alone in JAPAN, stupid analysts

He was only predicting NA sales.

And I think he's terribly underestimating the Wii. If I were an analyst, I'd call it a toss-up between huge success and completely mediocre, but even low-balling it, I couldn't see it failing to sell 17% of the consoles in NA this generation.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
Y2Kevbug11 said:
Edit: and he's OBVIOUSLY talking about "north american sales."

Let's get real; the Cube has sold 12 million units in North America, so even if he is talking about North America, he's predicting that the Wii will be a failure of such proportions that it loses sales numbers versus the Cube?

I don't think so. The "price effect" of higher priced consoles and games won't impact the Wii, since even if it launches at $250, it'll still be within the <$200 range for most of its lifespan, and games will not only be priced lower than PS3/X360, but they'll be priced at maximum on par with current generation titles.

Let's remember something about the Yankee Group:
- Failed miserably on the NASDAQ in 2000
- Has been sold from company to company to company over and over again due to poor performance.

They're shitty analysts, always have been. They're well known for their DOT-BOMB predictions where they kept forecasting stupidly inaccurate growth in the tech sector while the bubble was popping. God knows how many millions of dollars these guys have losts their clients.

Video game analysts as a rule tend to be a little silly. These guys are some of the worst analysts around. Their predictions are wildly out of line with the predictions of anyone else, and quite frankly ridiculous.

I don't know if the conclusion (PS3 > X360 >>>>> Wii) will be true, but it certainly won't come true the way these guys read it.
 

DarienA

The black man everyone at Activision can agree on
Campster said:
That's assuming the PS3 magically turns a profit. MS's game division is still hemorrhaging cash, and the PS3 certainly seems to be following the Microsoft mantra of "tons of power sold at a loss in order to gain market share so that some day we can actually turn a profit on these things."

Unlike MS Sony's VG consoles do eventually turn profits. Has it been clarified whether MS expects to turn a profit on the X360 this gen?
 
MightyHedgehog said:
No joke. This is honestly how I see it very possibly happening given what's happened up to now. I'm not willing to believe that Sony's previous two gens grants them immunity from falling to 3rd by end of gen here (NA) and very possibly overall.

I don't see the Wii (I still hate that name!) selling 12 million by the end of 2008 in NA alone, and no chance of doing it by the end of 2007 as you said might happen. I do agree that Sony has looked uncharacteristically bad with the PS3 PR so far. I think it's entirely possible that they will sink to second or possibly third this gen, but personally I don't feel they'll fall further than second. Of course, they still have to something about the price, and if Blu-Ray catches on, who knows. I just feel that a lot of people are overestimating the appeal of the Wii to the general public.

BTW, I love your avatar. All those old school images bring back memories. Good stuff!
 

Juice

Member
Wollan said:
I was thinking more may-august.

And even if PS3 production went without a hitch and they sent 100% of the consoles to NA, none to Europe, none to Japan, and every single one sold through, it'd still be physically impossible to match the NA install base for 360, which is likely to be at least 8m by next May.
 

Juice

Member
Stumpokapow said:
Let's get real; the Cube has sold 12 million units in North America, so even if he is talking about North America, he's predicting that the Wii will be a failure of such proportions that it loses sales numbers versus the Cube?

I don't think so. The "price effect" of higher priced consoles and games won't impact the Wii, since even if it launches at $250, it'll still be within the <$200 range for most of its lifespan, and games will not only be priced lower than PS3/X360, but they'll be priced at maximum on par with current generation titles.

Let's remember something about the Yankee Group:
- Failed miserably on the NASDAQ in 2000
- Has been sold from company to company to company over and over again due to poor performance.

They're shitty analysts, always have been. They're well known for their DOT-BOMB predictions where they kept forecasting stupidly inaccurate growth in the tech sector while the bubble was popping. God knows how many millions of dollars these guys have losts their clients.

Video game analysts as a rule tend to be a little silly. These guys are some of the worst analysts around. Their predictions are wildly out of line with the predictions of anyone else, and quite frankly ridiculous.

I don't know if the conclusion (PS3 > X360 >>>>> Wii) will be true, but it certainly won't come true the way these guys read it.

QFMFT, I didn't even see that this was from Yankee.

Haha, I know analysts are always wrong, but these guys are so consistent it's like they know the future and intentionally choose the opposite when predicting trends!

:lol, PS3's one good piece of news comes from an analyst group with the reputation of always betting on the wrong horse. LMFAO
 

Meier

Member
Juice said:
QFMFT, I didn't even see that this was from Yankee.

Well they are a group out of Boston named the Yankee group. Maybe they're intentionally wrong in hopes of their inaccuracy rubbing off on the baseball team.
 
Kung Fu Jedi said:
I just feel that a lot of people are overestimating the appeal of the Wii to the general public.
I understand that I'm being pretty much insano positive with what I personally view as my best case scenario for Wii in NA...but it's certainly possible. Who would've predicted that Sega, who was number one at times and so close to Ninty in the 16-bit gen, would go on to barely scratch out little more than one million in NA for Saturn's sales for lifetime? I'll give previous success its appropriate amount of pull with regard to future efforts...but only if the course isn't strayed from too greatly...and Sony is really off course with PS3, IMO.

BTW, I love your avatar. All those old school images bring back memories. Good stuff!
Thanks. Glad to see that people like the old school shit that isn't from just another console game.
 

Juice

Member
Meier said:
Well they are a group out of Boston named the Yankee group. Maybe they're intentionally wrong in hopes of their inaccuracy rubbing off on the baseball team.

Perhaps they're just waiting for someone to stick a feather in their caps?
 
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