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May 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes June 14th

B

BlackJace

Member
shinra-bansho said:
[PS4] 185K
[3DS] 95K
[WIU] 79K
[XBO] 73K
[360] 57K
[PS3] 32K

Tough month to guestimate.
Are there any past examples of long-in-advance announced price drops to draw from?
Click to expand...

I wonder if it's a tactical error on Microsoft's part to have announced a price drop so far in advance.
 
D

donny2112

Member
BlackJace said:
I wonder if it's a tactical error on Microsoft's part to have announced a price drop so far in advance.
Click to expand...

May's a down month, anyways, so it's a way to have hope/distract attention after a terrible April and a likely terrible May, in any case. Wagging the dog.
 
J

jvm

Gamasutra.
jayu26 said:
Who are you shaking head at? Nintendo or folks who rather release games on vita over Wii U?
Click to expand...
I'm just shaking my head in general. A Nintendo system with such meager support in its second full year and what I feel is a really nice handheld clinging to an afterlife. Badly played all around.

donny2112 said:
There's something to be said in there about quality (of sales) over quantity (of releases), just maybe. Yeah, Wii U is either being given exactly what it can handle (relatively high selling games every ~6 months with nothing in-between) or potential game releases are being left on the table. With the apparent dearth of a homerun Nintendo game in the Fall, I wonder how a 6-month late port of highly acclaimed Watch_Dogs on a starving system at Christmas will do. (probably terrible still, but it's a question :p )
Click to expand...
I really don't think it's much of a question, donny2112. Watch_Dogs Wii U has been sent to die. The game will do nothing for the system and the system will do nothing for the game.
 
S

shink

Member
Mostly everyone's predictions have Wii U higher than X1. I don't think it will but you never know with these things
 
F

fargofallout

Member
Wow, some of you people are crazy with your WiiU numbers. I bet most people who care that much about Mario Kart already have a WiiU, and the game is only available for, what, two days in the month?
 
D

donny2112

Member
fargofallout said:
and the game is only available for, what, two days in the month?
Click to expand...

Preordered hardware bundles bought at launch.

jvm said:
I really don't think it's much of a question, donny2112. Watch_Dogs Wii U has been sent to die. The game will do nothing for the system and the system will do nothing for the game.
Click to expand...

Just trying to make sense of the lack of a currently known November game from Nintendo with SSB likely being early next year ("Winter"). Either they 1) announce something to fill that slot at E3, 2) have nothing, or 3) try to promote a third-party game in that slot. 2 seems unlikely, 3 could only be Watch Dogs, since AC is a-tanking on Wii U and may not even come this year. For #1, their big Fall game could be their first Nintendo Skylanders game (the figurines, not the Skylander IP), but that's an unknown, right now. Thinking about it, they really should make their main figurine game their November game to maximize figurine sales with Christmas buying. Not like there's anything else to get for Wii U this Fall! :LOL :p
 
L

Longsword

Member
[PS4] 175K
[XB1] 80K
[3DS] 85K
[360] 65K
[WIU] 80K
[PS3] 45K

Depends heavily if Watch Dogs and MK get new people to buy hardware, rather than selling to the existing install base. Tough month to predict, but traditionally very low.
 
A

Anth0ny

Member
Weird month. Xbone should sell like shit considering that Kinectless SKU announcement. Is two days enough for Mario Kart to make much of an impact on Wii U numbers?

PS4 still probably wins lol

Will post actual predictions soon.
 
Q

quetz67

Banned
SDCowboy said:
It sold terribly the month prior, and now the news is long out about the lower cost. Who's going to buy it at $499 when it will be $399 a few weeks later?
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You make this sound like a rethorical question, but on Amazon the Titanfall bundle sales are pretty much unchanged while nobody preorders the Kinectless SKU. Maybe a game plus Kinect sound like a good deal for $100 extra.
 
M

mrklaw

MrArseFace
Was the new vita available for the full month? If not, it would be useful to know when it was released, as prior to that sales would have been low as little stock was about
 
A

Abdiel

Member
So far, I've been kinda confused by the predictions for everyone with the PS4's numbers dropping over the last month. Unlike the previous month, there's some serious releases to stir customer interest, including Watch_Dogs... And I think some of you really undersell the impact the Show has. There's a very dedicated fanbase that plays those games, and they always want the best version of it. I've seen customers buy a PS4 and a Vita just so they can have the best version of the game at home, and keep their RTTS mode with them as they travel. I'm not saying the numbers should be a blowout over the last month for the PS4, but the numbers certainly haven't tracked down for it at least. I'd be (very) surprised if the numbers were lower than the month before.

Though honestly, we have definitely seen the downturn on the XB1 numbers. Stayed on a pretty low end slope... How bad, I have no idea, but MS making that announcement so early definitely seemed to send ripples.
 
D

DoubleTake

Member
Abdiel said:
So far, I've been kinda confused by the predictions for everyone with the PS4's numbers dropping over the last month. Unlike the previous month, there's some serious releases to stir customer interest, including Watch_Dogs... And I think some of you really undersell the impact the Show has. There's a very dedicated fanbase that plays those games, and they always want the best version of it. I've seen customers buy a PS4 and a Vita just so they can have the best version of the game at home, and keep their RTTS mode with them as they travel. I'm not saying the numbers should be a blowout over the last month for the PS4, but the numbers certainly haven't tracked down for it at least. I'd be (very) surprised if the numbers were lower than the month before.

Though honestly, we have definitely seen the downturn on the XB1 numbers. Stayed on a pretty low end slope... How bad, I have no idea, but MS making that announcement so early definitely seemed to send ripples.
Click to expand...

Was waiting for your post. Thanks for the much appreciated info Abidel!
 
F

FDC1

Member
Yeah, Watch Dogs did record numbers for Ubi, it will have good impact on PS4 numbers.

[PS4] 250k
[3DS] 95k
[XB1] 85k
[WIU] 75k
[360] 60k
[PS3] 40k
[PSV] 20k
 
foamdino

foamdino

Member
[PS4] 287k
[XB1] 56k
[WIU] 98k

Based on the fact that May is slow, xbone was down last month, watch_dogs will push ps4 and mk8 will push wii u (and people will be waiting on E3 news and -kinect before deciding if xbone is worth it)
 
M

MrCookiepants

Member
Usobuko said:
Won't Watch Dogs give both PS4 and Xbox One a boost? although the kinectless news might just take away or make it negligible.
Click to expand...

PS4 certainly. Xbone? A small bump maybe? Being the inferior version on the more expensive hardware with Sony having exclusive advertising rights kind of hampers its system selling potential, though. And as you said, the price drop news will offset any boost.
 
F

FDC1

Member
mrklaw said:
Was the new vita available for the full month? If not, it would be useful to know when it was released, as prior to that sales would have been low as little stock was about
Click to expand...

May 6th

MrCookiepants said:
PS4 certainly. Xbone? A small bump maybe? Being the inferior version on the more expensive hardware with Sony having exclusive advertising rights kind of hampers its system selling potential, though. And as you said, the price drop news will offset any boost.
Click to expand...

Yes guys, remember PS3 broke 360 streak just by having GTA5 bundled and promoted with PS3, despite the fact GTA was also available on 360.
 
A

Abdiel

Member
DoubleTake said:
Was waiting for your post. Thanks for the much appreciated info Abidel!
Click to expand...

Cheers, Double. I always chime in during these threads because it's interesting to see the trends and predictions. What I see in our stores has seemed reflective of the larger situation, more or less, but I do try to check other districts to get a larger sample size.
 
B

Brad Grenz

Member
Abdiel said:
So far, I've been kinda confused by the predictions for everyone with the PS4's numbers dropping over the last month. Unlike the previous month, there's some serious releases to stir customer interest, including Watch_Dogs... And I think some of you really undersell the impact the Show has. There's a very dedicated fanbase that plays those games, and they always want the best version of it. I've seen customers buy a PS4 and a Vita just so they can have the best version of the game at home, and keep their RTTS mode with them as they travel. I'm not saying the numbers should be a blowout over the last month for the PS4, but the numbers certainly haven't tracked down for it at least. I'd be (very) surprised if the numbers were lower than the month before.
Click to expand...

I agree. My prediction assume PS4 gets a good bump from Watch_Dogs and MLB, enough to bring weekly sales up to about the same rate as it had in March. Ubisoft's early reports about Watch_Dogs sales suggest it's a pretty big hit and I'd think PS4 will be the primary beneficiary of that heat on the hardware side.
 
K

KillerMan91

Member
April was empty month release wise so I don't know why people are low balling PS4 so much this month. Watch_Dogs had record launch with heavy PS4 marketing, there was good launch for MLB The Show and there was also Wolfenstein.

[PS4] 275k
[XB1] 85k
[3DS] 90k
[360] 65K
[WIU] 90k
[PS3] 40k
 
SDCowboy

SDCowboy

Member
quetz67 said:
You make this sound like a rethorical question, but on Amazon the Titanfall bundle sales are pretty much unchanged while nobody preorders the Kinectless SKU. Maybe a game plus Kinect sound like a good deal for $100 extra.
Click to expand...
You may want to check again. The Titanfall bundle is now half way down the 3rd page. If it's any indication, the sales have completely fallen off cliff.
 
G

Gianni Merryman

Member
SDCowboy said:
Typo?
Click to expand...

Isn't the Kinect-less XBOne launching?
I reckon a bump is to be reasonably expected, hence my optimistic guess, besides Watch_dogs may sustain sales of both PS4 and XboxOne.

Hoo-doo said:
It's a month right before a 100$ cheaper XB1 SKU, and you expect the 499$ model to suddenly skyrocket in sales? How come?
Click to expand...

So I misread the OP?
In that case I would have to edit my XBOne prediction, thanks for your tips?
 
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