I agree with the idea that Flame and Coppa are some of the most suspicious looking, from the vote analysis - but how does the bolded above make sense? I think when Blarg claimed, he was not exactly committing suicide.
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Love Boat [Mafia] |OT| Till Death Do Us Part
- Thread starter Burbeting
- Start date
I agree with the idea that Flame and Coppa are some of the most suspicious looking, from the vote analysis - but how does the bolded above make sense? I think when Blarg claimed, he was not exactly committing suicide.
I instant blarg gets counter claimed he is dead and mafia would know this. They would have known this day 1.
Well,l that goes for any #unnecessarygambit, but I do believe they were operating under the assumption that there wouldn't be a Town Tracker. I really think the claim caught them by surprise, which is why they had to regroup for a few days to think of the counterattack.
I'm just saying that i think the correct thing for mafia to do after you claim is vote blarg. This doesn't even make flame suspicious, town should do the same thing, I was just iterating through what happened yesterday. His Cabot vote and his trust in your claim is the important take away.
I'm going to drag out the flame thing even more just in case it isn't 100% clear.
0. Blarg proves that he has access to some form of tracking ability by telling us the person he tracked also took an action against him
1. Kark counterclaims; everyone can be certain they both have access to a tracking ability
2. Flame votes blarg; he trusts Kark is the real tracker
3. It is the very end of the day, flame switches to now confirmed town Cabot, because he "trusts Kark"
4. Flame trusts that Kark is the real tracker, and believes that blarg is a mafia tracker, but he would rather vote Cabot and leave blarg alive to hunt our other power roles
0. Blarg proves that he has access to some form of tracking ability by telling us the person he tracked also took an action against him
1. Kark counterclaims; everyone can be certain they both have access to a tracking ability
2. Flame votes blarg; he trusts Kark is the real tracker
3. It is the very end of the day, flame switches to now confirmed town Cabot, because he "trusts Kark"
4. Flame trusts that Kark is the real tracker, and believes that blarg is a mafia tracker, but he would rather vote Cabot and leave blarg alive to hunt our other power roles
Well, I suppose that would have been acceptable for mafia to just make a token vote early in the day, but TimeFlux also ran interference on that - so Mafia could optionally lop votes on them to look active without bussing their friend.
I think we need to look at what the potential intention of the gambit was. What they did they have planned with the Miller Tracker claim? How could it have played out if we didn't counter-claim?
I think we need to look at what the potential intention of the gambit was. What they did they have planned with the Miller Tracker claim? How could it have played out if we didn't counter-claim?
Dusk Soldier
Member
To expand on my list earlier:
MAFIA - (these teams give me the strongest scum reads)
12. [m] Kyanrute NEW & [m] Retroid
2. [m] Karkador & [m] Zippedpinhead
NEUTRALS - (these teams give me a minor scum read, but I'm assuming there is a neutral pair with a hidden agenda)
[m] hobohodo & [m] Ty4on
7. [m] Coppanuva & [m] Flame_AC
TOWN - ( I think these teams are town)
3. [m] Timeaisis & [m] FluxWaveZ
9. [m] TL21xx & [m] Camjo-Z NEW
13. [m] El Topo & [m] Giant Panda
OTHERS - (These are the teams I most medium suspect.)
10. [m] MagnumBoy20xx & [m] batsnacks
6. [m] UltraJay & [m] Boo Boo'n
4. [m] LaunchPadMcQ & [m] Gorlak
1. [m] Kingkitty & [m] Hyperactivity
MAFIA - (these teams give me the strongest scum reads)
12. [m] Kyanrute NEW & [m] Retroid
2. [m] Karkador & [m] Zippedpinhead
NEUTRALS - (these teams give me a minor scum read, but I'm assuming there is a neutral pair with a hidden agenda)
[m] hobohodo & [m] Ty4on
7. [m] Coppanuva & [m] Flame_AC
TOWN - ( I think these teams are town)
3. [m] Timeaisis & [m] FluxWaveZ
9. [m] TL21xx & [m] Camjo-Z NEW
13. [m] El Topo & [m] Giant Panda
OTHERS - (These are the teams I most medium suspect.)
10. [m] MagnumBoy20xx & [m] batsnacks
6. [m] UltraJay & [m] Boo Boo'n
4. [m] LaunchPadMcQ & [m] Gorlak
1. [m] Kingkitty & [m] Hyperactivity
Look, basically. I believe Kark's claim and was willing to follow him on it. It was possible, however slim it may have been that there was two town trackers. I went for Blarg/Kawl immediately because I wanted it to be known which side of the argument I was on.
I went to Splinter/cabot for two reasons: I didn't like how he felt perfectly safe and didn't want to hammer Blarg/Kawl. That makes it look like he didn't want to be in the spotlight and that they wanted others to do the visible actions. I also trust that Kark has the best interest of town at his heart.
I mentioned earlier that if Splinter/cabot lynch didn't work out, then I would hope PRs are smart enough to not do anything during the night, or at least be very careful. This would limit Blarg/Kawl's action and then we lynch them the following day.
Also, it worked in HP and so I was really hoping it'd happen again.
Purely out of curiosity. How can you possibly suspect Kark and Zip? I just don't see that as being possible in this scenario. Mafia wouldn't counterclaim their own person on Day 2.
Umm. Why?
Dusk Soldier
Member
They're not scum hunting.
They're not relaying information from their tracking power.
They place votes on people "just for fun."
Blarg is very calculating and I can't put it past him that he orchestrated day 2, as a way to set either him or Zipped/Kark up to coast to late game.
Dusk Soldier
Member
Why what?
You thought splinter and Cabot, who had probably 50% of the posts in the thread at that time, looked like they were avoiding the spotlight? If you trusted Kark's claim and thought there was a high probability of blarg being mafia and you had town's best interests in mind you would have voted blarg.
I agree with your mindset, but because their current claim is tracker, this play would completely fall apart as soon as they report a result that contradicts what another player actually did that night. Which I think will or will not happen on Day 4.
Whether I'm here or not during the next phase, I think people should insist on the Kark/Zipped team directly relaying their N3 result.
Why do me and Retroid and Kark and Zipped give you the scum vibes. The list does not amount for much if you just list names without any reasoning. It also makes it completely impossible to discuss any of the opinions, ideas or hunches you might have.
While they may have had a boat load of posts, when push came to shove, they didn't want to do something which would inevitably attract attention later.
I get what you're saying about keeping it on Blarg, but I thought we had seen a genuine slip up and I wanted to make sure we could capitalize on it.
I think the downside, if they turned out to be town and Blarg lived another day, wasn't that big of a deal, as by the end of Day 3 we'd have killed them anyways. I get that there was danger for the PR's, but I think everyone here is smart enough to clearly avoid doing much when there's a likely scum tracker.
My response to this is the same as it was to Time. If you think Kark and Zipped are maf, then who is the real tracker that's not speaking up and helping us expose him?
There doesn't have to be a "real town-aligned tracker." You're going off assumptions, just like you did when you were confident for some reason that we had an alignment cop.
Zippedpinhead
Member
Not scum hunting? Sounds more like sour grapes...
Upon rereading, I didn't like karu' response to his solitary vote off of Blawl/splibot yesterday (being on us is inconsequential). And now you do this?
What do you think these votes are? (Trying to drum up interest and conversation when gameplay is stagnating) Why do we play a game? (Entertainment: an act of providing or being provided with amusement or enjoyment (I.e. Fun))
And not relaying our tracker power? As we have already said, we tracked Blawl night 1 (and had that mirror match return), tracked ultraboo night 2 (and they did not move). We have been very forthcoming with the fact that we are X-shot (so at some point we become normal).
What more do you want from us? READS? I personally don't like them, I go vote to vote and sometimes defend it. Sometimes I wait for a response before saying anything (just to make it more interesting.)
I'm already voting for you and Karu. So... Yeah... That's what it is...
I really don't understand what and why you posted. Again, what more do you want from us?
I was assuming there was a cop, but I'm certain there's a town role based around seeing where people go. Sleepwalker is a role designed more to trip up town than maf, so Splinter/cabot's existence makes little sense if Blawl were the only trackers.
I'm inclined to agree and I was more confident there wasn't a cop compared to what I think about a tracker, but it's also not a possibility that should be dismissed. There are other kinds of investigation based roles than the one Kark/Zipped claim to be, and the sleepwalker could have been implemented to either interact with those or really to make Mafia think a team had an active PR when they essentially did not.
Regardless, I don't think it's something worth lingering on for the remainder of this Day phase. Just something worth taking into account going into Day 4.
There was no cop in the very first Gafia game. With 15 players, a cop could have been an overkill.
as I said, this is based on what I skimmed before blawl was exposed, where scum could decide on what to do next. I wouldn't be surprised if some scum voted for cabsplinter, and some voted for blawl, just to make sure not all the eggs are in the same basket.
eh I don't find it that too odd, but you're free to disagree.
I think if launch was scum, it seems a little unnecessary bringing up the issue that miller + name cop don't mesh well. If he's indeed on the same team as scum klarg who claimed miller, and scum timeflux who claimed name cop. Could lead to people saying "hey, if there's a contradiction, maybe lynch one of em?". Thing is I don't think timeflux is scum, as I said in one of my earlier posts. And re-reading what I wrote (which i wrote a lil tired), a better, more logical read on gorlaunch should be "unsure but would lean town if timeflux flips scum".
Dusk Soldier
Member
Well, Retroid seems to always know what's going on, even though he's not participating much.
He's one of the players that voted Blarg earlier, but later pulled it off, because reasons.
Kyanrute, you ask a lot of questions. You're fishing for information constantly. I don't know if you're just a naturally inquisitive person, or if you're trying to bait people into saying things that can be twisted about them later.
I have 0 reasons to trust you as a player in this game, and until then you will sit on my mafia list.
Kark/Zipped helped us lynch Blarg. And if it was anyone but Blarg that would immediately put them on my town list. But other than that one good deed they are not playing like town.
Though Retroid does not post much, it does not mean he doesn't know how to read. The first, in my own case. Information is power. If forms the basis for all arguments. Scum have the gift of coordination but it is also a curse, for it leaves patterns. We can try, and I like to do so, to look for these patterns but only if we have information. Do you have examples of me twisting someone's words or is that just a baseless accusation? And your thoughts on Zippedor, well, they seem silly to me.
Dusk Soldier
Member
Think a little outside the box for a second.
No one died on night one. What if scum's target for the faction kill was visited by a sleepwalking Cabot/Splinter. And what if they discovered that fact by tracking.
Wouldn't that explain why their was a scum push to get rid of Cabot/Splinter on day 2? That they did it because they thought they had sniffed out the doctor?
See, again I can kind of agree with where you're going, but there's the simple fact that Kark/Zipped are still saying they're a tracker, and so far they have "verified" two other teams:
1. Blarg/Kawl [Mafia - Trackers]
2. Ultra/Boo [??? - No action on N2]
Ultra/Boo have verified Kark/Zipped's claim, so theories go all over the place if we want to explore whether Kark/Zipped are scum. I think it is best to wait until we have a #3 they track to really dig into this.
Let's look at a timeline of events:
-BlargKawl claims Miller Tracker
-By the end of D1, there's an expectation that both roles will provide results (Timeaisis even reassures me that they'll probably target Blarg)
-FluxWave rains death on CzarTim, despite posturing themselves as saying "sacrifice me instead"
I have to assume that Blarg/Kawl's actions were decided by a committee of Mafia, not just them (although I bet Blarg made the suggestion to begin with).
- When they opened up Day 1 with that claim, that was part of The Plan.
--When they targeted us on N1, I believe it was because we made the most noise on D1 and confronted them directly. However, we could have also targeted a teammate of theirs. Again, this targeting decision was made by Mafia consensus.
- Timeaisis backs out of the D1 claim that they're Name Cops; "it was a mistake". The Plan changes.
- Flux goes in on me.
- We counterclaim Tracker
- Timeaisis points a question at Kawl about the Trackers. Kawl responds with the idea that we're not really Trackers.
- Meanwhile, Flux tries to bring up crazy theories to deny that I'm a Tracker.
- The vote mounts on Blarg, we detour to Splinter, day ends early on Blarg (this is another topic)
- We target Boo and Jay; "Your target didn't visit anyone". We get chat bombed.
- Splinter/cabot are dead; Boo/Jay open hot out the gate, trying to frame us as mafia- the rhetoric being that "Kark/Zipped wouldn't be left alive by Mafia if they were Town" (says the guys who probably left us alive)
- Fluxwave tries to declare there is no alignment cop, and also tells me to die and votes on me. Insists we're not trackers.
- Flux also claims all his wacky plays are "because it'd be funny"
I'm not saying Flux and Time were supposed to be wacky, too-dumb-to-be-doing-it-on-purpose foil to Blargonaut's intended Confirmed Town/Straight Man routine...
and I'm not saying Boo and Jay are trying their best to keep up with The Plan (that Day 3 is about trying to get Kark and Zipped into Big Trouble), by killing Splinter and cutting their communication ....
but I think the pattern fits the charge.
-TimeFlux claims NameCop
-BlargKawl claims Miller Tracker
-By the end of D1, there's an expectation that both roles will provide results (Timeaisis even reassures me that they'll probably target Blarg)
-FluxWave rains death on CzarTim, despite posturing themselves as saying "sacrifice me instead"
I have to assume that Blarg/Kawl's actions were decided by a committee of Mafia, not just them (although I bet Blarg made the suggestion to begin with).
- When they opened up Day 1 with that claim, that was part of The Plan.
--When they targeted us on N1, I believe it was because we made the most noise on D1 and confronted them directly. However, we could have also targeted a teammate of theirs. Again, this targeting decision was made by Mafia consensus.
-BlargKawl and Kark/Zipped target each other. By the nature of their Tracker role, Blarg learns we're a Town PR.
- Blarg reports findings - "we looked at someone, and they looked back". They become cautious and defensive, because I could have been a Cop or something. They state they wont out the name, but claim they did not target TimeFlux, as if to direct attention at them. The Plan changes.
- Timeaisis backs out of the D1 claim that they're Name Cops; "it was a mistake". The Plan changes.
- Flux goes in on me.
- We counterclaim Tracker
- Timeaisis points a question at Kawl about the Trackers. Kawl responds with the idea that we're not really Trackers.
- Meanwhile, Flux tries to bring up crazy theories to deny that I'm a Tracker.
- The vote mounts on Blarg, we detour to Splinter, day ends early on Blarg (this is another topic)
- We target Boo and Jay; "Your target didn't visit anyone". We get chat bombed.
- Splinter/cabot are dead; Boo/Jay open hot out the gate, trying to frame us as mafia- the rhetoric being that "Kark/Zipped wouldn't be left alive by Mafia if they were Town" (says the guys who probably left us alive)
- Fluxwave tries to declare there is no alignment cop, and also tells me to die and votes on me. Insists we're not trackers.
- Flux also claims all his wacky plays are "because it'd be funny"
I'm not saying Flux and Time were supposed to be wacky, too-dumb-to-be-doing-it-on-purpose foil to Blargonaut's intended Confirmed Town/Straight Man routine...
and I'm not saying Boo and Jay are trying their best to keep up with The Plan (that Day 3 is about trying to get Kark and Zipped into Big Trouble), by killing Splinter and cutting their communication ....
but I think the pattern fits the charge.
Is this a joke? The push for Splinter was clearly unplanned and only happened after he wouldn't just turbo and finish off Blarg.
All right, time to finalize the thoughts and start accusing. Zippedor is all good to me and they are supporting El Panda so they get to go free as well. Of course, El Panda could be the bombers, but I dont see the evidence for that. Still, the possibility exists.
So the idea here was to look at the votes and whatnot and hope something would look strange.
THE ALL RIGHT
1. [m] Kingkitty & [m] Hyperactivity - Kittys late vote is all I would have on them. It is not enough. Kitty has been providing reads all game long, what to me has seemed like a town, not having enough time to participate more. Hyper has been laying low.
4. [m] LaunchPadMcQ & [m] Gorlak - I remember Gorlak going against Splibot many times before the day two end, so his jumps make sense to me. I dont feel that Launchs world burning antics were that serious in nature and it seemed more of a joke than anything else. I dont see it as scum withdrawing their vote in hopes for a turnaround. Splibot did consider the duo suspicious though.
9. [m] TL21xx & [m] Camjo-Z NEW - Nothing stands out to me. Few posts from TL but inactivity is not a scumtell.
10. [m] MagnumBoy20xx & [m] batsnacks - Magnum is a late voter on Blawl but it fits his posting pace. Nothing to go on.
15. [m] hobohodo & [m] Ty4on - So hobo did not vote but he was a replacement. Cant really conclude anything from that. Ty was waiting on the train station before Splibot-train even arrived. The context seems to be a connection he saw between Splibot and Fluxaisis. Yet Karkador was the the man who drove the train to the station and Ty just seemed happy that the train had finally arrived. If Ty was scum and wanted to get rid of Splibot, wouldnt he have made up a more convincing case than a empty post with a vote?
THE SUSPICIOUS
3. [m] Timeaisis & [m] FluxWaveZ - Flux is still a good kill if we ever feel we dont have much to go on. I kinda agree with Time on the Splibot train weirdness but no way do I feel that is enough to go for a Zippedor kill. But, there is still the fact that if Fluxaisis are scum, the whole day one thing was preplanned and that seems insane. I am somewhat conflicted and confused and nothing Flux does helps with this feeling.
6. [m] UltraJay & [m] Boo Boo'n - Their votesplit seems strange when you consider that they did withold their votes somewhat. I could see this as a scum trying to avoid taking stances for as long as possible. Since El Panda holds some townpoints in my eyes, Ultraboo are the only ones occupying the split vote group. If we were to find a scum pair who did not split their vote, it would make Ultraboo even more suspicious to me. Lastly, Splibot and others have seen them as scummy. But for Ultraboo to be scum, there must be three mafia pairs left: Ultraboo, the bomber, and the pair who killed Splibot. This is because Zippedor did not see Ultraboo move. Or Ultraboo are a ninja and they were the killer. Could be that too. Strike the three pairs thing.
7. [m] Coppanuva & [m] Flame_AC - They say they do not converse much, but their actions seem coordinated to me. They have different reasons for going for Splibot; Flame was very trustful of Karkador while Coppa did not like the way Splinter responded to pressure. Yet their votes are within 20 posts from each other. Do also remember that Coppa never voted for Blawl. He found Splibot suspicious but took no stance on the battle of the trackers. We can apply the scum spreading the vote -argument to these two as well, they would be the pair who voted for the same person while others did something else. And they too can be found on Splibots list of scum.
11. [m] Dusk Soldier & [m] Karu - The obvious weird votes and that is not all that is weird about them. Scum Splibot taking heat off from Blawl and somehow directing it to a third party? Why does the scum Splibot get a vote but Blawl does not? This heat Dusk is putting on Zippedor also seems very illogical to me. Zippedors claim was the force behind the Blawl kill. But they are not scum hunting. Zippedor have given us their tracking results, but they havent? what. Why it is strange Kark took 12 hours to counterclaim? Zippedor might place votes on people for fun, but you put a vote on Splibot and knowingly ignored Blawl, because it was obvious that Blarg/Kawl were going to be lynched. This play has the feeling of the low laying scum. You dont see them unless you call on them and when the vote forces them to raise their heads, they hardly even commit to that. They play, but during the night.
VOTE: Dusk Soldier
(This post was written before thinking about Karks FluxBoo idea. Now thinking.)
So the idea here was to look at the votes and whatnot and hope something would look strange.
THE ALL RIGHT
1. [m] Kingkitty & [m] Hyperactivity - Kittys late vote is all I would have on them. It is not enough. Kitty has been providing reads all game long, what to me has seemed like a town, not having enough time to participate more. Hyper has been laying low.
4. [m] LaunchPadMcQ & [m] Gorlak - I remember Gorlak going against Splibot many times before the day two end, so his jumps make sense to me. I dont feel that Launchs world burning antics were that serious in nature and it seemed more of a joke than anything else. I dont see it as scum withdrawing their vote in hopes for a turnaround. Splibot did consider the duo suspicious though.
9. [m] TL21xx & [m] Camjo-Z NEW - Nothing stands out to me. Few posts from TL but inactivity is not a scumtell.
10. [m] MagnumBoy20xx & [m] batsnacks - Magnum is a late voter on Blawl but it fits his posting pace. Nothing to go on.
15. [m] hobohodo & [m] Ty4on - So hobo did not vote but he was a replacement. Cant really conclude anything from that. Ty was waiting on the train station before Splibot-train even arrived. The context seems to be a connection he saw between Splibot and Fluxaisis. Yet Karkador was the the man who drove the train to the station and Ty just seemed happy that the train had finally arrived. If Ty was scum and wanted to get rid of Splibot, wouldnt he have made up a more convincing case than a empty post with a vote?
THE SUSPICIOUS
3. [m] Timeaisis & [m] FluxWaveZ - Flux is still a good kill if we ever feel we dont have much to go on. I kinda agree with Time on the Splibot train weirdness but no way do I feel that is enough to go for a Zippedor kill. But, there is still the fact that if Fluxaisis are scum, the whole day one thing was preplanned and that seems insane. I am somewhat conflicted and confused and nothing Flux does helps with this feeling.
6. [m] UltraJay & [m] Boo Boo'n - Their votesplit seems strange when you consider that they did withold their votes somewhat. I could see this as a scum trying to avoid taking stances for as long as possible. Since El Panda holds some townpoints in my eyes, Ultraboo are the only ones occupying the split vote group. If we were to find a scum pair who did not split their vote, it would make Ultraboo even more suspicious to me. Lastly, Splibot and others have seen them as scummy. But for Ultraboo to be scum, there must be three mafia pairs left: Ultraboo, the bomber, and the pair who killed Splibot. This is because Zippedor did not see Ultraboo move. Or Ultraboo are a ninja and they were the killer. Could be that too. Strike the three pairs thing.
7. [m] Coppanuva & [m] Flame_AC - They say they do not converse much, but their actions seem coordinated to me. They have different reasons for going for Splibot; Flame was very trustful of Karkador while Coppa did not like the way Splinter responded to pressure. Yet their votes are within 20 posts from each other. Do also remember that Coppa never voted for Blawl. He found Splibot suspicious but took no stance on the battle of the trackers. We can apply the scum spreading the vote -argument to these two as well, they would be the pair who voted for the same person while others did something else. And they too can be found on Splibots list of scum.
11. [m] Dusk Soldier & [m] Karu - The obvious weird votes and that is not all that is weird about them. Scum Splibot taking heat off from Blawl and somehow directing it to a third party? Why does the scum Splibot get a vote but Blawl does not? This heat Dusk is putting on Zippedor also seems very illogical to me. Zippedors claim was the force behind the Blawl kill. But they are not scum hunting. Zippedor have given us their tracking results, but they havent? what. Why it is strange Kark took 12 hours to counterclaim? Zippedor might place votes on people for fun, but you put a vote on Splibot and knowingly ignored Blawl, because it was obvious that Blarg/Kawl were going to be lynched. This play has the feeling of the low laying scum. You dont see them unless you call on them and when the vote forces them to raise their heads, they hardly even commit to that. They play, but during the night.
VOTE: Dusk Soldier
(This post was written before thinking about Karks FluxBoo idea. Now thinking.)
You're making too many assumptions. The simple answer is scum tracked Kark on N1 and had no idea who stopped the kill.
For that to make sense either scum has more than one tracker or Kark is scum and this was an elaborate bus. And even then it's probably not a good idea for scum to lead a lynch.
I would agree it does that, but the problem remains. The plan would be insane. Would the scum team agree to go with a play that puts a lot of pressure on 2/3 or 2/4 of them? What would be the gain? How could you even try to predict how such a plan would play out?
Dusk Soldier
Member
You guys are right, I'm just coming off as crazy paranoid at this point.
I don't know the answer to those questions re: Flux. It could and could not make sense. It's impossible to tell. The frustrating problem is that we don't have a ton of chances to get this right before LyLo (2 or 3 days), even with a clear N1- but Flux pretty much wants to kill people indiscriminately.
But I do think at least the BooJay part of it seems more plausible, and Zipped and I have had our sights on them for a while.
I do not.
Not yet, but obviously I have to look into having one before the end of this day phase.
Unvote
VOTE: Gorlak
For me it's an overall feeling that you don't care about town. Your opinions went from hard on Blawl to doubting everything to voting a third party to turboing Blawl. Doubting is townie, but I want the reasons.
For whatever reason Launch said he asked for the turbo while Gorlak seems to think was the person asking.
For me it's an overall feeling that you don't care about town. Your opinions went from hard on Blawl to doubting everything to voting a third party to turboing Blawl. Doubting is townie, but I want the reasons.
For whatever reason Launch said he asked for the turbo while Gorlak seems to think was the person asking.
Current Votes:
el topo & giant panda (0)
ty4on
karkador & zippedpinhead (1)
fluxwavez
ultrajay
timeaisis
launchpadmcq & gorlak (1)
boo boo'n
ty4on
hobohodo & ty4on (1)
zippedpinhead
gorlak
tl21xx
fluxwavez
kingkitty
timeaisis & fluxwavez (6)
gorlak
launchpadmcq
ultrajay
boo boo'n
zippedpinhead
karkador
camjo-z
tl21xx
dusk soldier & karu (4)
fluxwavez
flame_ac
kyanrute
flame_ac
zippedpinhead
karkador
magnumboy20xx & batsnacks (1)
giant panda
13 votes needed for majority.
el topo & giant panda (0)
karkador & zippedpinhead (1)
timeaisis
launchpadmcq & gorlak (1)
ty4on
hobohodo & ty4on (1)
kingkitty
timeaisis & fluxwavez (6)
gorlak
launchpadmcq
ultrajay
boo boo'n
camjo-z
tl21xx
dusk soldier & karu (4)
flame_ac
kyanrute
zippedpinhead
karkador
magnumboy20xx & batsnacks (1)
giant panda
13 votes needed for majority.
So, I've been looking back through previous days in an attempt to help us come to a conclusion about Flux/Time. Remember how Blarg was really trying to push Flux as the safest lynch alternative on D2, to the point where he reposted this list multiple times?
He specifically notes that if Flux flips maf, this would essentially give us Kark/Zipped and Splinter/cabot on a silver platter. (He also says that it would reveal whether Blarg and Flux are in collusion, but since they can't all be working together I presume he meant "if they flip town".) Now, if Flux were maf, this would ideally preserve Blarg for D2, D3, and potentially D4. Since he knows Kark is a town tracker that would expose his lies when killed, he would probably go for a Splinter lynch D3. Then D4, he can tackle Kark, and if successful he's now at D5 with 4 townie kills (including night kills) under his belt before anyone's realized he's the maf tracker. However, if Flux was town, this nets him a mere 1 kill and saves him only on D2. The next day everyone turns on him. Still, even though it's not as great of a reward, he still gains something from Flux being lynched.
The question is, was this a deliberate attempt by Blarg to bus a maf buddy and last multiple days past his expiration date, or was it just a desperate last-ditch effort to get one more townie kill before his end? At first I was thinking the former, but then I noticed a post Blarg made towards Flux when he was a mere one vote away from turbo:
At 14 votes, Blarg should have essentially accepted his fate. Somebody could have hammered him at any time, and this would be his last post. I'm not sure why he would still be trying to make a maf buddy look bad right as he's about to die. It reads as though he's legitimately angry that people are voting him and not the person making all the textbook scummy moves.
What do you guys think? Does this stuff make a better case for Flux being maf or town? (Or neutral.)
He specifically notes that if Flux flips maf, this would essentially give us Kark/Zipped and Splinter/cabot on a silver platter. (He also says that it would reveal whether Blarg and Flux are in collusion, but since they can't all be working together I presume he meant "if they flip town".) Now, if Flux were maf, this would ideally preserve Blarg for D2, D3, and potentially D4. Since he knows Kark is a town tracker that would expose his lies when killed, he would probably go for a Splinter lynch D3. Then D4, he can tackle Kark, and if successful he's now at D5 with 4 townie kills (including night kills) under his belt before anyone's realized he's the maf tracker. However, if Flux was town, this nets him a mere 1 kill and saves him only on D2. The next day everyone turns on him. Still, even though it's not as great of a reward, he still gains something from Flux being lynched.
The question is, was this a deliberate attempt by Blarg to bus a maf buddy and last multiple days past his expiration date, or was it just a desperate last-ditch effort to get one more townie kill before his end? At first I was thinking the former, but then I noticed a post Blarg made towards Flux when he was a mere one vote away from turbo:
At 14 votes, Blarg should have essentially accepted his fate. Somebody could have hammered him at any time, and this would be his last post. I'm not sure why he would still be trying to make a maf buddy look bad right as he's about to die. It reads as though he's legitimately angry that people are voting him and not the person making all the textbook scummy moves.
What do you guys think? Does this stuff make a better case for Flux being maf or town? (Or neutral.)
Vote: Flame_AC [/hightlight]
I will be defaulting to flux/time in the event that this vote doesn't work out. Flux's fake claim, his flip flopping d2, and their team's lack of reasonable mafia targets today are enough for a vote imo. I haven't received any critical feedback on my vote analysis for flame/coppa, I think it is strong enough to vote flame/coppa over flux for today, but I will be voting flux if flame/coppa isn't happening.
I will be defaulting to flux/time in the event that this vote doesn't work out. Flux's fake claim, his flip flopping d2, and their team's lack of reasonable mafia targets today are enough for a vote imo. I haven't received any critical feedback on my vote analysis for flame/coppa, I think it is strong enough to vote flame/coppa over flux for today, but I will be voting flux if flame/coppa isn't happening.
I don't know that I'd say Flame voting Blarg early and following Kark's lead is necessarily a reason to suspect him, but I agree that his proposed plan to avoid killing either and get reports from both trackers was really bad.
What the heck was with those read posts, Dusk? I mean, I brought up my own Kark scum theory but slit has happened since then that pushes Kark closer to town. Flux going after Kark at almost the same time is also skeezy to me.
You coupled with Karu is a big red flag to me now since I know Karu can hide as Mafia really well. I mentioned that on Day 1. The only thing giving me pause is that it sucks that Karu got scum in a game AGAIN.
A Kark lynch isn't happening. Kark needs to deliver notes on someone else and they need to do it immediately without waiting (yeah, I actually agree with Flux).
That read post plus Karu's recent posts gave me the creepiest feeling.
Vote: Karu
You coupled with Karu is a big red flag to me now since I know Karu can hide as Mafia really well. I mentioned that on Day 1. The only thing giving me pause is that it sucks that Karu got scum in a game AGAIN.
A Kark lynch isn't happening. Kark needs to deliver notes on someone else and they need to do it immediately without waiting (yeah, I actually agree with Flux).
That read post plus Karu's recent posts gave me the creepiest feeling.
Vote: Karu
Dusk Soldier
Member
What was Kawl talking about there? I don't remember.