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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

T

tokkun

Member
cpp_is_king said:
Not realizing it means you can often realize a profit instead though, although it might be a while
Click to expand...

I know. I'm saying that's a bad thing.

You are financially better off if you realize the loss, reinvest the money, then realize the profit later. It allows you to delay paying taxes, so you profit from the time-value of money.
 
C

cpp_is_king

Member
tokkun said:
I know. I'm saying that's a bad thing.

You are financially better off if you realize the loss, reinvest the money, then realize the profit later. It allows you to delay paying taxes, so you profit from the time-value of money.
Click to expand...

This relies on the assumption that the instrument you reinvest into will be profitable and not suffer the same fate as the one you're realizing a loss on.

Nobody ever went broke only selling in the green. Plenty of people have gone broke realizing an early loss though
 
T

tokkun

Member
cpp_is_king said:
This relies on the assumption that the instrument you reinvest into will be profitable and not suffer the same fate as the one you're realizing a loss on.
Click to expand...

It's no different from your argument that you should continue holding the depressed asset, which relies on the assumption it will eventually go up in value. By the way, I didn't say you had to reinvest the money in something different. After realizing your loss, you are free to put the money back in the original asset as long as you wait 30 days to avoid the wash sale rules. A good way of hedging against a sudden price increase during that period is to park the money in an asset that is correlated to the original one (e.g. a similar index or a company in the same industry).

So for example, if there were a big market correction, I would sell my shares of Total Stock Market that are in the red and buy S&P 500. Then after a month, I sell S&P 500 and rebuy TSM.

Nobody ever went broke only selling in the green. Plenty of people have gone broke realizing an early loss though
Click to expand...

This argument has always reminded me of the logic behind the Martingale method. It's guaranteed to eventually yield a profit, provided you have infinite resources and bend the rules to allow infinite investment horizons by not allowing stocks to be delisted.

I'm all for cautioning people away from panic selling, as it is probably the single most destructive mistake an investor can make. However, falling victim to the sunk cost fallacy and loss aversion can be costly too. They are two sides of the same coin
 
M

Mrbob

Member
Health care bill looks toast. Will we finally get a pullback? This is the second longest length of time in history the market has gone without at least a 5% pullback.
 
BeforeU

BeforeU

Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
Mrbob said:
Health care bill looks toast. Will we finally get a pullback? This is the second longest length of time in history the market has gone without at least a 5% pullback.
Click to expand...

Me too was expecting a pullback after the health care bill news last night, in fact GOLD is up too. But looking at pre-market, I don't think market gives a damn anymore lol One thing for sure is clear that GOP are incapable of passing any meaningful bill
 
S

SecretMoblin

Member
BeforeU said:
Me too was expecting a pullback after the health care bill news last night, in fact GOLD is up too. But looking at pre-market, I don't think market gives a damn anymore lol One thing for sure is clear that GOP are incapable of passing any meaningful bill
Click to expand...

market still believes in tax cuts, if that fails to come to fruition then hold on for the ride!
 
C

Captain Smoker

Member
Man, exchange rate losses are such a pain in the ass, Euro gained another +1% today (+10% since the beginning of the year) - probably because of the healthcare bill

But First Solar seems to gain another +3% today. ^^

-6,5% to go :eek: (damn Euro/Dollar, I'd be in the green and making money xD)
 
M

Mrbob

Member
Market is holding up pretty well today. Health care reform was a precursor to tax reform so I thought the market would get hit harder. Maybe with earnings season here again good earnings will save the market for now. My concern though is the further this market goes up without a pullback the harder the fall. Though maybe passive investing has broken this market?

Snap just fell under 15.... closer to single digits where I get interested.
 
C

Captain Smoker

Member
Mrbob said:
Though maybe passive investing has broken this market?
Click to expand...
I had the same thoughts.

Like a large self-fulfilling prophecy - machine and noone cares about dips because "it will rise again" (well it's what I believe as well) and people just keep buying and buying until they need the money in a few years and withdraw it.
 
U

Unknown Soldier

Member
NFLX on fire today. I wish I held a larger stake. Oh well. I might pick up some more when it dips a little from today's gains.

Market ultimately doesn't give a shit about Trump and the Republicans as long as the corporate earnings are good and the economy is firing on all cylinders.
 
T

thestopsign

Member
I just happened to check my investment account at the end of the day today and was surprised to see it up over 10% for the day. NVAX is back baby (maybe)!! They announced an announcement for an update on their Phase 2 of the RSV vaccine. Just a bit more and I could finally make my money back.
 
C

Captain Smoker

Member
So First Solar was upgraded by some analysts and a "solar bear"-analyst, so it jumped again today.

-0,5% left and I'm in the green after one year.. what a ride. ^^

Please give me a good report for the quarter and I can even earn some money.

Edit: Meanwhile, DDD keeps on sucking and replacing FSLR as my all-time worst stock. Right on time.
 
T

tokkun

Member
Captain Smoker said:
I had the same thoughts.

Like a large self-fulfilling prophecy - machine and noone cares about dips because "it will rise again" (well it's what I believe as well) and people just keep buying and buying until they need the money in a few years and withdraw it.
Click to expand...

The main problem is a lack of alternatives making people take on more risk.

In 1999, you could get a 4% real return on a 10-year US government bond.
In 2007, it was 2%.

And in 2017.....0%. Banks are also not passing on benchmark rate increases to consumers in the form of higher interest rates. Back in 2007, a money market account yielded about the same as the 10-year rate. Today they are about 1% below, meaning real rates are negative.

If you are in or near retirement, and you did your retirement planning based on historical real returns for bonds (~2%), you are in a bind. You cannot generate enough from low-risk investments to meet your needs, so you end up putting more stock in your portfolio to make up for the shortfall. Same thing applies to pension funds.

Unknown Soldier said:
Market ultimately doesn't give a shit about Trump and the Republicans as long as the corporate earnings are good and the economy is firing on all cylinders.
Click to expand...

Are they, though? By what metric? Because they don't look good from a CAPE perspective. Earnings are growing, but not as fast as valuations, and that is not sustainable.
 
C

ClosingADoor

Member
Tencent + 3.5%. Up to $40!

Steel recovering further. Almost green.

Too bad my insurance stock hit its stop loss yesterday and sold. It's back up now. Buying back if it gets lower again. Meanwhile, happy with the profit, living costs for a few days covered doing nothing.

tokkun said:
Are they, though? By what metric? Because they don't look good from a CAPE perspective. Earnings are growing, but not as fast as valuations, and that is not sustainable.
Click to expand...
Stuff is going to crash sometime. But the big question is, when... It is not sustainable long term, but it could still be for a year or two. But if bad news hits, its going to go down fast.
 
H

hurzelein

Member
Excited about the Qualcomm earnings today, after all the Apple drama etc. Def. not my favourite stock but I think I'm prepared to buy more at 45 if it crashes.
 
U

Unknown Soldier

Member
I sold all my QCOM more than 2 years ago I think. It hasn't done anything since and I'm not expecting it will. Short the drop if you want to but it's not something I would actually hold long term.
 
BeforeU

BeforeU

Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
I have good gains on AAPL, AMAZ and GOOG. Bought them during the dip few weeks ago.

Wondering if I should keep it or sell it before the earnings

Any thoughts?


Edit

One more question, since BRK has been outperforming S&P 500 I am thinking on increasing my stake but considering how old WB, I genuinely hope he stays in good health but should we be worried before investing?
 
T

TCRS

Banned
After 1.5 years on a demo account I'm ready to get real. I'm about to open my first real account with trading212. Going to invest in ETFs obviously, none of that risky stuff.

they also offer CFDs- does anyone here trade CFDs? I find it weird because that is seriously risky stuff and I wonder if people even trade those with their private capital. I mean trading212 is definitely geared towards private investors.
 
T

TCRS

Banned
I'm thinking of buying DAI, BMW and Volkswagen. Sure it's bad news but nothing they can't recover from right?

or wait a little longer? court cases are sure to follow.
 
C

ClosingADoor

Member
Hard to say. Things like this will probably drag on for years. I own some Daimler myself at € 65, so hopefully it recovers. Although I'm fine holding it long term and collecting dividends.
 
M

Mrbob

Member
Google after hours looks like sell the news event. Comes down to the low 900s I'll be a buyer.

Tech has run so much this year wonder if there will be a sell off after all tech earnings this week just because of this.
 
U

Unknown Soldier

Member
Sell the news has been brutal this year but oh well. I've held GOOGL since before the voting/non-voting split with an overall gain of 80% so it's not like I could give less of a fuck when it dips a few percentage points.

Let's see if the same thing happens to FB lol
 
BeforeU

BeforeU

Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
I am surprised at the GOOG drop. I am not down too much, but they beat the earnings not considering the EU fine which was already counted in.

I might buy few more tomorrow. But after GOOG and MSFT I am really worried about AMAZ. They have to blow it out of the park or it will face same destiny. FANG has rally so much this year so i guess it makes sense.
 
C

cpp_is_king

Member
Earnings fluctuations are always knee jerk. I mean just look at every major headline, "google still printing money". It'll be 1100 by next earnings date
 
U

Unknown Soldier

Member
I dunno, AMZN is still ahead of GOOGL in the race to 1,100. AMZN easily beat GOOGL in the race to 1,000 and lingers above 1,000 unlike GOOGL which will fall again tomorrow.

I wouldn't bet against AMZN. The goal of Jeff Bezos is to KNOW EVERYTHING (Washington Post), SEE EVERYTHING (Alexa), RULE EVERYTHING (etc. etc.)!!
 
C

cpp_is_king

Member
Unknown Soldier said:
I dunno, AMZN is still ahead of GOOGL in the race to 1,100. AMZN easily beat GOOGL in the race to 1,000 and lingers above 1,000 unlike GOOGL which will fall again tomorrow.

I wouldn't bet against AMZN. The goal of Jeff Bezos is to KNOW EVERYTHING (Washington Post), SEE EVERYTHING (Alexa), RULE EVERYTHING (etc. etc.)!!
Click to expand...

Yea, AMZN will be 1200 by the next earnings lol. I've got a significant amount of both
 
M

Mrbob

Member
I think I'm just going to buy the Powershares QQQ but I'm watching the 50, 100, and 200 day moving averages. Going to wait for the QQQ to hit the 50 and see how it bounces. If it goes under I'll wait on the 100, etc.
 
T

tmdorsey

Member
thestopsign said:
I don't get stocks sometimes (or most of the time). NVAX had good news about their vaccine and their stock still took a huge dive.
Click to expand...

Same here. Like what the hell people taking losses or jumping ship after good news? Or maybe the big stake holders are trying to get the price low as possible to maximize potential?
 
M

Mrbob

Member
Just keep holding.. when a stock is undervalued it will correct back to the upside. I used the weakness today to get back in with some shares.

Looked like a report came out that said their last phase 2 looked good but then phase 3 tanked...warning investors this could happen again. Which doesn't make a ton of sense since the past doesn't guarantee the future but hey it worked.

The bigger issue for nvax is they have lost so much money in their stock price that they have notes due soon and how are they going to raise money to pay. I'm only this for a potential swing trade on run up on phase 3.
 
M

Mrbob

Member
Remind me to stay in here. The toxicity of poligaf is crazy. On the same side of a topic but just say pump the brakes on wishing the death of someone (in this case John McCain) and the attempted twisting of words begin. Rant over.

AMD is popping after hours. Earnings beat. Is this stock going to 16 with good guidance?

Edit:. Guidance is good so mad I didn't load up on this under 2 when I had a chance.
 
C

ClosingADoor

Member
OK, Arcelor Mittal. How about we push through that 23 tomorrow and go a bit further. I want my steel stock back in the green by now... +3% today, so let's hope it doesn't fall again.

Conflicted if I should buy some BMW under € 80...
 
M

Mrbob

Member
Don't go too crazy with NVAX. I only have a tiny position right. Always use the 3 day rule when buying stocks that have a big daily drop. I'll see what it is on Friday to determine if I want more.
 
U

Unknown Soldier

Member
Mrbob said:
Remind me to stay in here. The toxicity of poligaf is crazy. On the same side of a topic but just say pump the brakes on wishing the death of someone (in this case John McCain) and the attempted twisting of words begin. Rant over.
Click to expand...

You didn't figure out how awful and toxic GAF is for political discussion after what happened in 2016?
 
C

Captain Smoker

Member
Facebook today.

Amazon & First Solar tomorrow.

DDD next week.

(Earnings releases)


This is going to be an interesting week for my portfolio, hopefully they deliver some good results. ^^
 
M

Mrbob

Member
Snap keeps going down. That chart looks like the definition of a falling knife. Expiration on lockup part one coming on July 31 with 400M shares and part two Aug 14 with around 800M shares. I think I'm going to get my single digits but I might wait for 5 dollars a share now.

Unknown Soldier said:
You didn't figure out how awful and toxic GAF is for political discussion after what happened in 2016?
Click to expand...

Yeah it was my bad for participating in the first place.
 
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