Isn't Taito actually cutting back?
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Media Create Sales: Week 37, 2015 (Sep 07 - Sep 13)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Dumping the JP console market. Double down on mobile and handheld for the local market, reserving console projects to exclusively franchises with heavy western appeal or MMOs.
Their current strategy is a waste. It's forced a cross-gen approach longer than should be necessary (although this isn't a problem limited to SE or even Japan) and it's eating local resources better spent elsewhere from both short term and long term perspectives.
Pennywise83
Banned
Some. Too many mobile games (SQEX has always over-invested on a specific platform without actually thinking carefully the business strategy for each game - we saw that on PS1, PS2, DS). Mid-tier games on an unproven platform for the genre (in the West in particular) with likely too high expectations (the fact that they presented during E3 Nier 2 and Project Setsuna screams that the company at least believes they are mildly important projects). Too many ports and remasters that are flooding shelves (Type-0? Did it sell its initial shipment in Japan?) or with limited appeal (a second Mana remake across PSV and mobile platforms? SO2 on PS4/V?) or with a discontinouos strategy (KH2.8 on PS4 and not on PS3? Why not KH1&2 HD then?). Little focus on some projects, e.g. SaGa: "a game for browsers with traditional battle systems - oh a game on PSV too (maybe! In 2016? Who knows) - did you forget about the mobile game..?".
That's just my opinion of course. I mean, SQEX has often been a mess business-wise, with a very prolific production line and huge IPs that are selling by the name alone. It's not surprising that SQEX's biggest IPs (leaving Eidos aside, which is probably one of its best moves ever) are those created 30 years ago + KH which was born in 2001.
They released something like 50 jRPGs on PSP & DS alone - and many of them could be considered mid-tier and AAA titles.
MatrixMan.EXE
Member
sörine;179165990 said:
What happens to Final Fantasy and Kingdom Hearts if they dump the Japanese console market? The whole point of releasing all of these console games is to try and salvage what they can, paving the way for their big guns to stay somewhat viable in their home territory.
And why would they double down on handheld for the local market when nothing they're doing on handheld outside of Dragon Quest is particularly lighting up the charts. The handheld market in Japan is a lot healthier than console, but it's also declining and will continue to do so as we move forward to not only in Japan but globally as well.
Taking your argument into account, they should just forgo traditional gaming models altogether and make everything for mobile no? I mean both are a lost cause. The handheld decline has already worked its magic in the west and will only get worse. Japan is just taking a little longer to let go.
FF and KH decline locally. I think allowing that to that happen is a better use of resources than trying to prop up the Japanese console market. FF and KH are heavily western leaning franchises anyway, KH would be fine skipping Japan entirely if need be.
Handheld accounts for 70%+ of the Japanese dedicated software market and this generation a handheld will still achieve 3rd best selling platform in history status. Unlike PS4, it's not yet a lost cause. That's a false equivalence.
I've been notably reactionary and critical of Square Enix in the past but I think how they support NX/3DS successor will determine whether they have a good strategy.
It really depends on whether games like Project Setsuna, World of FF and Seiken Densetsu are only skipping 3DS for technological reasons or if they genuinely don't think the platform is worth pursuing for those games.
It really depends on whether games like Project Setsuna, World of FF and Seiken Densetsu are only skipping 3DS for technological reasons or if they genuinely don't think the platform is worth pursuing for those games.
Realities change. It's not just in Japan
I think that's true, but that they're also investing in things like Dissidia and Gunslinger Stratos.
I guess it's more like a resource redeployment in arcades.
Does their NX strategy really matter if it's going to be a pretty small part of their overall business?
Like, outside of Dragon Quest which is already announced for NX, how much did the 3DS compromise what they made this generation?
I guess if we're just looking at Japan given this is a Media Create thread, it's more relevant than it would be, certainly.
Possibly not but then I don't think doing good in some areas should allow you to be incompetent in others.
I'd even suggest that it's especially on a worldwide scale that ignoring a potentially/probably very viable platform like NX/3DS successor for those mid-sized projects would be a major misstep.
On another note I'm not quite sure what you mean by the second paragraph, we might have our wires crossed. I would say though that they're seemingly a lot more productive now than earlier in the 3DS' life.
velvet_nitemare
Member
I'm not sure anyone can predict with great confidence how well NX (3DS successor) will do outside Japan. Could do great or erode even further with losses to mobile. Maybe Square aren't betting on it doing much outside Japan, who knows
Oh sorry, I meant revenue/profit wise, how much of their per annual income was being comprised by 3DS games that weren't Dragon Quest titles - which already seem slated for the platform - and appear to be the main open question in terms of whether they will show up.
I guess usually when I read "good strategy", my mind goes to the high level, overall corporate strategy as opposed to specific business arms.
Like EA is total garbage at running free 2 play PC games, but I consider their overall approach to running their business to be very solid, and we've seen that manifest in record earnings and outlooks.
Similarly, Square Enix is making stronger revenue and profits than they have in around a decade or more at the moment despite releasing very few dedicated device games last year (while still absorbing the cost of developing 5+ AAA titles).
My perspective is essentially that, while the NX is incredibly likely to be the centerpiece of dedicated device gaming in Japan for the next 5+ years, dedicated device gaming in Japan is now a relatively minor part of Square Enix's business.
It's sort of like how Sega has transformed to essentially be a mobile and digital game provider that has a few legacy retail products that they dabble in and out of, but less extreme.
Moving average for Splatoon, now that the overall legs seem to be shrinking. Another week of sub-20k and moving average projections (remember I am not taking into account holiday up-ticks) will put the YTD (physical) under 1 mil. Right now expectations seem to stand around [ 1000k > x > 850k ]:
All true. Square Enix's mobile business and Western/AAA business are obviously of major importance. I would say that NX might be important to their MMO business going forward though due to DQX.
I'm seeing it from the perspective of: If they're making the content and the platform is both technologically capable and financially viable then it's a no brainer to support it.
It is slightly different from the early years of the 3DS' life because SE just wasn't making that content in the first place. I think it's clear that it's only through cheap and easy to use middleware like Unity that those projects are coming about so it makes sense for them to skip the 3DS.
I'm seeing it from the perspective of: If they're making the content and the platform is both technologically capable and financially viable then it's a no brainer to support it.
It is slightly different from the early years of the 3DS' life because SE just wasn't making that content in the first place. I think it's clear that it's only through cheap and easy to use middleware like Unity that those projects are coming about so it makes sense for them to skip the 3DS.
Japan could get some craziness for an idol game on NX, though.
Right, that's essentially been my argument for why I'm expecting support from lots of games that are easy ports and don't have notable financial incentives otherwise in general, since it's the same logic these publishers have used to port to PC and Xbox.
Like, I'm not expecting things that are PS4 only games, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some Vita/PS4 games show up if they aren't intending on majorly changing the titles with a PS4 only transition.
I also expect a few harder to port titles like Dragon Quest 11, because those very special cases have large financial incentives instead of just a few extra copies for a lot of work.
This, of course, might only be worthwhile for simultaneous releases as well given the install base at launch.
All above statements are predicated on the NX being an above Vita hardware powered handheld with an OpenGL ES 3.0+ hardware feature set that retails for 20,000-25,000 yen and isn't a complete bomb up front.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Maybe because there biggest games are going to be on PS4 and since they are jrpgs there is a possibillity of audience over lap and better sales. Maybe they see potential for sales in the West due to PS4 performing so well or signs of it performing well. Maybe the devs want to make more ambitious games as well.
You don't think there's an audience for JRPGs on a playstation home console in the west.........I'll strongly disagree with that notion.
sörine;179168408 said:
What matters more is how SE's IPs perform. DQH despite being on home consoles has sold 800k+ in JP. SE is also clearly interested in the Western market which could offer more.
Crossplat Unity efforts make some sense for NX going forward and are an opportunity that didn't really present itself on 3DS. Things like Project Setsuna, Seiken Densetsu, SaGa Scarlet Grace and so on. These efforts also still make sense on Vita/PS4 too I think as they can leverage mobile to reduce risk, are already low cost/production and smaller budget/retro/indie-like efforts like this have a clear western market base to justify non-mobile releases. If anything I think Steam, Xbox One and even Wii U ports could and maybe should be supported in these sorts of cases.
On the other end UE4 AAA console games that can scale down reasonably also present an attractive and novel NX opportunity depending on where the power envelope ends up. This is likely a more case by case thing but even appreciably downgraded conversions of DQXI HD, KH3 or Dissidia would make sense for the local market if NX can handle them.
What doesn't make as much sense on NX is also what we've seen vanish from handhelds in general in the DS/PSP to 3DS/Vita transition and that's the mid tier platform dedicated SE efforts. Not that there isn't some opportunity there, but I think most investment here is probably better spent in mobile deficated development generally or pushed to crossplat Unity/UE4. Then again we are seeing SE push these sorts of games to console (SO5, Nier 2, etc), and that's an even less justifiable dead end than NX is likely to prove or 3DS presents today.
You'r Splatoon prediction is WAY better than other guys
That said, i still think you are too pessimist.
Code:
[img]https://scontent-ams2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xta1/v/t1.0-9/12002932_134934340186960_2103550614449239627_n.jpg?oh=510b608cfd1e8cd01aae3ca175dae631&oe=566478E8[/img]Those are the Mario Kart 8 sales by week 17 to week 31:
17 = 6,396
18 = 5,936
19 = 4,517
20 = 3,996
21 = 3,625
22 = 2,821
23 = 3,170
24 = 3,210
25 = 13,544 ( MK8 bundle )
26 = 8,752
27 = 12,742 ( holidays effect start )
28 = 19,244
29 = 24,938
30 = 34,331
31 = 38,637
... Even if Splatoon is under 20k mark, is still selling >2x compared to Mario Kart, considering Splatoon will definitive beat Mario Kart in 2 weeks ( 3 weeks max ) there is no way for Splatoon to sell less than what Mario Kart sold in 2014, and Mario Kart 8 sold 857,000 last year...
Important note: Mario Kart 8 got a bundle, but still, the Splatoon/Mario gap is not small... is not 10 / 20 % difference... is not 50% difference... is OVER 2:1 in weekly sales... so, even if Splatoon will not have a bundle, will still very easy beat Mario Kart numbers, even because before the bundle Mario Kart sales are dropped like a rock, under 3k, that's impossible with Splatoon... my personally guess is that Splatoon will dropped at 8-12k level by October, then, by November will back at 20-30k level, and in December we will see 40-50k in weekly sales.
Splatoon sales by end of year should be ( withouth digital )
1.1 million > Splatoon > 900k
With digital, 1 million is a given, most likely over 1,200,000.
Right, it's if NX ticks all those boxes and still gets skipped I think that would be a bad decision. It's unlikely but the new Unity-based SaGa is still billed as Vita exclusive for now.
sörine;179183162 said:
Well Project Setsuna is directed by the FF Explorers director which would imply they are prioritizing those types of projects as FFEX did relatively well.
I'm really not sure about the business rationale behind Nier 2
but it's totally rad that it's happening.
EDIT: On the PS4 note it's obviously the most viable console in the west but has it really shown that it helps the sales of Japanese games compared to lower selling systems? Genuinely curious.
I'd argue a 3DS/Vita based DQH would've cost less, sold more, and presented comparable western opportunities. PS4 has yet to prove a western sales panacea for less established Japanese games. Particularly for those from Omega Force (Toukiden, One Piece PW3, etc).
You'r Splatoon prediction is WAY better than other guys
I'm not being pessimistic, I am not including holidays. This is a straight moving average trajectory off of weekly results.
If I wanted to convolute the holiday up tick of MK8 into the moving average, then I would be giving much higher numbers but I do not want to do that because it is hard to predict such a scenario as this game is, clearly,performing rather differently from MK8. (Moreover, the bundle makes it a mess for prediction because you have to remove bundle "auto-sales" from the equation in some fair way.)
Oh, in this case yes... but with the holidays boost we know this game is gonna sell way more than.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Out of curiosity apart for the small Splatoon convo above, anyone want to talk about near term sales as opposed to future strategy of a platform we know very little about?
I had posted something earlier about whether folks think the Wii U hardware will do better or worse than the same timeframe last year (weeks 37-52). Same question for the PS4 as well, since it doesn't seem to have a holiday title per se yet again, and I'm unaware of any DQHeroes kind of bundle this time around.
I had posted something earlier about whether folks think the Wii U hardware will do better or worse than the same timeframe last year (weeks 37-52). Same question for the PS4 as well, since it doesn't seem to have a holiday title per se yet again, and I'm unaware of any DQHeroes kind of bundle this time around.
lowhighkang_LHK
Member
Didn't MGS4 have a huge drop after its first week as well?
MGSV is at around 500,000 physical ps3 and ps4. If digital sales are at 10% which is a safe estimate of digital sales that puts it at around 550,000 which is very much inline with the previous MGS games.
And yet people are saying MGSV bombed? I don't get it....
MGSV is at around 500,000 physical ps3 and ps4. If digital sales are at 10% which is a safe estimate of digital sales that puts it at around 550,000 which is very much inline with the previous MGS games.
And yet people are saying MGSV bombed? I don't get it....
Both PS4 and Wii U will have a better holidays this year.
About PS4, some people seriusly underestimate Call of Duty and Star Wars japan sales... those games will help the PS4. is not a massive line up for Japan, but will help.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
I wouldn't be too surprised. GTAV did amazingly well on PS4 as well.
I presume you think the Wii U will have a better holiday b/c it's doing better now (thanks to Splatoon & Mario Maker)?
Or do you think that the upcoming titles this year are stronger than last year's titles?
Well, Wii U has a better basis this year, so yes i think Splatoon / Mario Maker will give a boost This Holidays... Last year Smash Bros just didn't help.
I also think #FE Bundle will help.
I see Wii U at > 700,000 in 2015.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Also is it just me, or Animal Crossing Amiibo Festival, Star Fox Zero & Mario Tennis all don't have release dates in Japan? (I guess Animal Crossing doesn't have an official release date anywhere...). Seems a bit odd to me. I'd assume AC would have to be a holiday title, but do you think Mario Tennis or Star Fox might be delayed for Japan?
Lets just be honest here. If they released a Pachinko version as well they'd be doing much better.
Here is the holiday added affect just for some mathematical fun (ignore the label for the orange graph, I didn't change it in excel so it still says average, but this is the data extrapolated from this week onward following the MK8 trend). The extrapolation is applied from this week onward, so from 17.49 onward from MC's figures for the week.
I arrived at this by taking the data from MK8 and doing an assumed removal of the bundle by effectively subtracting the baseline of the WiiU (on average, I didn't bother week to week, for simplicity sake) and removing the bundle spike by averaging left-right of the point. Here is the resultant data set (of MK8 without bundle, and the curve therein), the overlay is the fit. This is a polynomial third-order fit which seemed adequate and I wasn't about to bother trying to solve higher orders for what amounted to little return.
I still think this is a silly comparison, though, since the bundle completely obfuscates the actual sales potential of the title itself.
I arrived at this by taking the data from MK8 and doing an assumed removal of the bundle by effectively subtracting the baseline of the WiiU (on average, I didn't bother week to week, for simplicity sake) and removing the bundle spike by averaging left-right of the point. Here is the resultant data set (of MK8 without bundle, and the curve therein), the overlay is the fit. This is a polynomial third-order fit which seemed adequate and I wasn't about to bother trying to solve higher orders for what amounted to little return.
I still think this is a silly comparison, though, since the bundle completely obfuscates the actual sales potential of the title itself.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
So in essence, you're saying Splatoon will 1M more units than the Wii U's Japanese LTD just because? =D.
I kind of wonder whether the Mario Maker bundle will have a better effect than the Mario Kart 8 bundle. In 2013, pairing a new game (Wii Party U), along with a lot of other stuff did great. Mario Kart 8's bundle did ok at best.
KratosEnergyDrink
Member
Does this include digital sales? These should be high for a only game like Splatoon.
Oh have a little faith
Moor-Angol
Banned
no, but PS3 was a huge step back from PS1-PS2 era, and it happened when they entered into mobile market
for example, games like Valkyria 3, Disaster Report 3, My Summer Holiday 4, Dissidia Final Fantasy, the 3rd Birthday if they would have been released on PS3 instead of PSP probably could have helped the install base to grow up more
We don't know what NX is yet, but I presume after its release Nintendo will heavily support the platform instead of 3DS; Sony knows what NX is ? maybe, so they could be worried to a strong home as the Wii was in the first 3 years and wants to focus all energies and resources to PS4
a strong Sony home and a strong Nintendo handheld can coexist, as we've seen so far, and they realized they can't compete with Nintendo into the handheld market, so it's better to come back to the origin, PS3 and PSP just showed that userbase is basically splitted, they didn't have a large increase in market (obviously considering the market itself is much bigger than PS1 or PS2 era)
my use of "rule" was meant about home division, not in general, we all know mobiles is ruling in Japan now...
As I said, physical. Unless you have found a way to get physical digital games?
Are you VPNing to Japan? Or spoofing your IP to Japan?
Nope.
It's just poor quality as in sub HD.
Basically this is the quality I'm getting- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuY6R-iF3XU
VPN or spoof your IP to Japan if you want to actually use NicoNico.
Oh ok.
Will try that. Thanks
edit: Hmm, not seeing any difference. Could it just be that the TGS stream for KT isn't high quality?
I know this is late but: This is practically impossible to avoid on modern chip builds, it's been standard since A12 with Malli GPU. You'd have to run in terror from any modern GPU to somehow not have at least 3.0 support. (If anything, I think its not crazy to even imagine the next handheld running 3.1.)
The 3DS's PICA support old versions of OpenGL, so I don't think they'd have any conceivable reason to not have a more modern tool set built into their system.
Oh ok.
Will try that. Thanks
edit: Hmm, not seeing any difference. Could it just be that the TGS stream for KT isn't high quality?
Sounds like the stream quality is shit.
Cosmo Clock 21
Banned
Weren't people convinced the 3DS would have at least 512MB of RAM; Nintendo will find a way to underpower the NX somehow
The 3DS was supposed to launch completely different from the end product, which was caused by nVidia failing to deliver on the chipset they had promised. Pretty sure you're not going to get that happening again.
OpenGL isn't like RAM which you can equip in various capacities, either, its built into these systems to the point where you'd have to go out of your way to not have it.
First Day Sell-Through {2015.09.17}
[3DS] Pokemon Super Mystery Dungeon <RPG> (Nintendo) (¥5.076) - 40% normal start
[PS3] [PS4] [PSV] Samurai Warriors 4: Empires # <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) (¥7.344) (¥7.344) (¥6.264) - 40% delays don't increase pre-orders!
[PSV] World Trigger: Borderless Mission <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥6.145) - 70% selling better than expected (it won't reach to 50-100k though)
[PSV] Saki: Zenkoku-Hen # <TBL> (Kaga Create) (¥7.538) - 70% the usual fanbase
[PSV] Resident Evil: Revelations 2 <ADV> (Capcom) (¥5.389) - less than 40%
[PS4] [PS3] Destiny: The Taken King - Legendary Edition <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) (¥8.532) - 20% previous users aren't buying this game
[XB1] Forza Motorsport 6 # <RCE> (Microsoft Game Studios) (¥7.452) - It's an amazing game, it will sell a lot, right?
[3DS] Pokemon Super Mystery Dungeon <RPG> (Nintendo) (¥5.076) - 40% normal start
[PS3] [PS4] [PSV] Samurai Warriors 4: Empires # <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) (¥7.344) (¥7.344) (¥6.264) - 40% delays don't increase pre-orders!
[PSV] World Trigger: Borderless Mission <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥6.145) - 70% selling better than expected (it won't reach to 50-100k though)
[PSV] Saki: Zenkoku-Hen # <TBL> (Kaga Create) (¥7.538) - 70% the usual fanbase
[PSV] Resident Evil: Revelations 2 <ADV> (Capcom) (¥5.389) - less than 40%
[PS4] [PS3] Destiny: The Taken King - Legendary Edition <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) (¥8.532) - 20% previous users aren't buying this game
[XB1] Forza Motorsport 6 # <RCE> (Microsoft Game Studios) (¥7.452) - It's an amazing game, it will sell a lot, right?