I remember waking up to that news. Holy cow was that something else
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WSJ: Nintendo Earnings: What to Watch
- Thread starter ggx2ac
- Start date
I remember waking up to that news. Holy cow was that something else
R
Rösti
Unconfirmed Member
Questions of a more absurd nature are usually reserved for the Annual General Meeting of Shareholders considering those meetings accomodate any shareholder. Earnings release briefings are exclusive to institutional investors and securities analysts. Nintendo's 77th Annual General Meeting of Shareholders is tentatively scheduled for the end of July.
Skittzo0413
Member
I doubt we will hear much announcement related what with the Switch actually selling well and E3 being right around the corner. Nintendo doesn't really need to deflect criticism with announcements when they have actual good news to report.
Maybe we'll hear a bit about upcoming mobile titles but I wouldn't expect anything more.
That makes sense, yeah. The numbers just jumped out at me as being a bit odd. I'm curious if currency exchange might also have an effect on that number.
Maybe we'll hear a bit about upcoming mobile titles but I wouldn't expect anything more.
That makes sense, yeah. The numbers just jumped out at me as being a bit odd. I'm curious if currency exchange might also have an effect on that number.
I remember seeing expectations, around 7+M of Switch during the year.
20M for the software seems extremely low.
It would mean that each Switch owner buys ~3 games on average.
Since there are lots of people buying far more it means there should also be a pretty big amount of people only buying 1 to get it as low.
Am I forgetting something here ? Is it physical only or whatever : / ?
And that's assuming they ONLY sell 7M switch which I think is a pretty low prediction.
20M for the software seems extremely low.
It would mean that each Switch owner buys ~3 games on average.
Since there are lots of people buying far more it means there should also be a pretty big amount of people only buying 1 to get it as low.
Am I forgetting something here ? Is it physical only or whatever : / ?
And that's assuming they ONLY sell 7M switch which I think is a pretty low prediction.
ThLunarian
Member
While currency exchange rate gains and losses may factor into a company's net profit, they are tracked separately from expenses, and would have no bearing on the sharp anticipated decrease from last year. The effect on net profits would also most likely be immaterial.
FreedomFighter
Member
lmao
Skittzo0413
Member
Yeah 20m for software seems quite low for the entire FY (which is what the OP says the WSJ is expecting). Especially if that includes MH5 and DQXI as Macquarie seems to think it may.
Also I think 7 million consoles is very, very low for the entire FY too. It's low for LTD sales by the end of CY 2017 too. I'd say a reasonable expectation is 9-10 million by the end of Q3'17 and about 12 million by the end of FY 17. It's very possible it will go higher than that though, assuming the WSJ report about doubling FY 17 production to 16m is true.
So assuming 10-12m by next April, 20 million software units would be a very dismal attach rate, and incredibly disappointing. I'd think ~40m is a more realistic target, especially considering the amount of first party software releasing between now and then.
Gotcha, that makes sense. Thanks.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
I know shipped != sold, but that seems damned low. Looking back at Wii over its first year or so its ratio of shipped software to hardware was much higher. Even before the second holiday boost it was like 5:1.
Even Wii U saw nearly 20 million shipped software in its first four full quarters.
I guess these analysts expect a much lower ratio traditionally seen with dedicated portables? But even 3DS saw about 35 million shipped software with less than 15 million shipped hardware in its first four full quarters.
Though digital sales are a bigger thing now than for any of those launches, so perhaps they expect that to make a giant difference?
Skittzo0413
Member
But aren't these the analysts' expectations for Nintendo's forecasts? Which would include digital sales? Either way 20 million seems quite low.
Frankfurter
Member
Yeah, these predictions are confusing. Mario, Zelda, Mario Kart and Splatoon alone should do more than 20m during that fiscal year.
catpurrcat
Member
Totally. The Super Famicom Wii controllers are still rare. Makes sense for them to release some $60 wireless controller bundle for the Switch (e.g. SNES style) with DLC codes for popular games, like Mario World and F-Zero. Then say "hey for $5 a game here's the rest of the library, or pay $50/yr for unlimited access!"
frankie_baby
Member
Dont they normally only include digital sales of retail software?
Skittzo0413
Member
In their results briefings I thought they typically do list retail and digital sales, and usually show a chart comparing the two. I guess I don't know if they include digital sales in their sales forecasts but if they're announcing digital numbers in their results why wouldn't they include them in their forecasts?
frankie_baby
Member
We've been "getting it" for like 2 years, still no sign though
Empyrean Heaven
Member
Agreed. I think that's the best move.
it'd be great in terms of consumer choice, but it doesn't make a ton of business sense. they want to stimulate your appetite with a few games and a cool retro shell. then they want you to put that away and buy a switch.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
If a "VC console" had cross-buy with Switch, this would give all those buyers skin in the Switch game, so to speak. If they bought a collection of NES/SNES games they liked, it would only be lack of a Switch letting them easily play them anywhere they wanted. One-off machines with a fixed library don't do that.
TheBaldEmperor
Member
Huh...
kitchenmotors
Banned
Which is why I think Classics are coming to the Switch. Have all your eggs in one basket and why manufacture another product when all of it can be underneath one umbrella?
frankie_baby
Member
I know, showing how wrong he is seeing as we all know its exclusive to ps4 and psvita2
I just made this up but I heard it will be PSV2 exclusive in order to help boost HW at launch of the system in FY 'never.
frankie_baby
Member
Followed by a G version exclusive to wonderswan4 aint it?
TAS
Member
El Hefe in the mutha f***ing house! 👊
JonnyDBrit
Member
Part of that will be simply down to the fact R&D costs on the Switch have already been sunk, and the console's launch finally means they can start making money back on it. Hell, that's probably a factor in why they had the launch at the start of March - gave them time to get close to a month's earnings on it to factor into the report. Since it sells at a profit and it's been selling very well, that's a lot of money even in a short span of time.
Plus, well, Pokemon.
th3sicknness
Member
The problem with your estimates is Nintendos ability to maintain a high level of supply , which they have shown they cant do with any product.
I was looking at ps4 numbers from last Christmas and they sold roughly in the 5 to 6 million range.. I seriously doubt Nintendo will be able to produce that many Switches in the mid November to early January window.
Skittzo0413
Member
Like I said in my post, those would be reasonable numbers assuming the WSJ report of Nintendo doubling production from 8m to 16m is true. If they're planning to produce 16m units in FY17 then I think the supply problems wouldn't be all that bad.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
In the last quarter of last year about 10 million PS4s shipped. Though Nintendo has been able to beat that historically (more Wiis yada yada), it's probably too soon for Switch to have anything near that. I can definitely see a 5+ million quarter, though. Even when Wii was selling everything they shipped, its first full holiday quarter was 2-3 million larger than the quarters immediately around it, so they clearly had held some in reserve for that time.th3sicknness said:
No Capcom is dumb, what a missed opportunity, and the fact that a MH game isnt even announced yet for Switch shows how backwards Capcom is
th3sicknness
Member
Do we really think Nintendo is going to SHIP 2 million switches per month? To hit the 17 to 20 number people keep throwing out that is what they will have to ship and sell?
Skittzo0413
Member
Who's throwing around 17-20? I think 18.5m LTD is the absolute maximum possible by the end of FY17 and very doubtful to achieve. I'm expecting more like 12m for that period.
thestopsign
Member
Lets say it has sold 2.5 million in the past fiscal year ending in March 2017. To hit 18.5 million it would have to ship 1.25 million a month. It wouldn't be an unheard of rate. It would have to have a very good Q3 in the fall with some stocked up units from the summer months.
Hero of Legend
Member
We just need to give them time I guess. However, someone pointed out earlier and made a VERY good point; just how beneficial would even a Monster Hunter XX HD Ver. had been right now? Hardly at all in terms of hardware boosts; because said hardware is already constantly selling out.
Better to save that for the holidays once production is far higher. Plus it allows more people to buy the game quicker that way.
Dark Cloud
Member
I'm sure you'll get news on the Animal Crossing mobile game.
Rösti;234649033 said:Countdown timers.
News Conference* for Fiscal Year Ended March 2017, Apr. 27, 2017
Held shortly after the close of the market, which is 15:15 PM JST for most indexes on JPX. The above countdown corresponds to the converted time of PDT.
*Tentative, though almost guaranteed. Usually held at Osaka Stock Exchange.
Reference image:
Financial Results Briefing for Fiscal Year Ended March 2017, Apr. 28, 2017
Nintendo's financial results briefings are usually held 10:00 AM JST the day after the earnings release. April 28, 2017, 10:00 AM JST converts to the above.
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/index.html
First timer is 12 hours too soon, no? Looks like it's counting down to April 27th at 3:15 AM JST to me (whereas it should be April 27th at 3:15 PM, 15 minutes after market closes).
The first one does end too soon, it would be 3am in Japan when that timer ends.
NOLA_Gaffer
Banned
Nintendo makes money, as they have been for over 100 years. Won't be too surprising.
SinCityAssassin
Member
It was a harsh financial meeting in 1899 when Yamauchi-san proclaimed that only one series of hanafuda would be presented from Nintendo at the National Card Summit months after.
R
Rösti
Unconfirmed Member
I apologize for the mishap with the countdown. I have corrected the original post, and correct time should be the following:
I used this tool for conversion: https://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/converter.html?iso=20170427T061500&p1=248&p2=1244
I used this tool for conversion: https://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/converter.html?iso=20170427T061500&p1=248&p2=1244
KillerMan91
Member
I have actually been wondering that what kind of software attach rate Switch will have. Will it be closer to portables (rather low) or successful home consoles (High). For example while PS4 is still behind 3DS in global HW sales it has passed it in total software sales ages ago. Maybe because the hybrid nature of the device it will have attach rate somewhere between 3DS and PS4.
Won't it be more difficult to calculate because I assume digital will be a lot higher then in the past? I have 4 games for example but only one is physical (zelda).
KillerMan91
Member
Nintendo includes digital in their software data.
Up to now, Nintendo included digital versions of retail games in their shipments. Digital only titles have never been included.