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April 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, May 9th

T

Tratorn

Member
MatPiscatella said:
Remember, it's still April sales. A very small portion of total annual sales.
Click to expand...

Yep sure, I know.
But the PS4 is also in its 4th now and already has a higher base, so it's good to see it not slowing down for now (and even being up a bit).

If holiday isn't down too much (I doubt it can reach the numbers of last year, even with those marketing deals and GT Sports as a strong exclusive), Sony can reach their 18m target and that would be indeed a pretty nice number for the 4th year, esspecially with the launch of Scorpio + Switch.
I'm mixing US + WW a bit now though, I know that GT Sports won't do too much for this thread anyways.
 
R

Rymuth

Member
Obliterator said:
If what I'm seeing holds up I wouldn't expect things to be any closer in May between Xbox and PlayStation. It's going to be a pretty rough lead up to Scorpio for them if things continue their current trajectory.

That said a strong E3 with a convincing Scorpio presentation and price point I believe can certainly help things. I wouldn't expect some sort of massive turn around but certainly a healthy improvement over their current situation.
Click to expand...
Getting Deja Vu here from when they announced the Kinect-less model too early (though I doubt the numbers will be that dire)
 
M

MatPiscatella

Member
Tratorn said:
so it's good to see it not slowing down for now (and even being up a bit).
Click to expand...

Eh, the difference from it being up or down is so small in the grand scheme that taking any kind of conclusions away from the month of April on annual, long-range or global trend isn't something I would suggest.

Tratorn said:
especially with the launch of Scorpio + Switch
Click to expand...

The impact of competitive consoles on a particular console's sales trend is overblown. Switch is having no noticeable impact on the sales trend of either competitive console.

added_time said:
Pokemon Go was the best advertisement ever for Pokemon Sun and Moon
Click to expand...

It certainly was.

added_time said:
Oh on that note, does NPD have an interest in tracking mobile gaming sales (or do you already and I'm just clueless)
Click to expand...

We do, but nothing public.

Obliterator said:
If what I'm seeing holds up I wouldn't expect things to be any closer in May
Click to expand...

This is fair. The only things that can change sales trajectory are changes in the product, pricing, promotion, available content or distribution of the box. No big changes have happened in May that would drive significant change, so reasonable to assume not much should change.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Xbox One sales are absolutely pathetic. PS4 having its biggest sales performance this year while XB1 is already back to pre XB1S sales numbers. It's already dangerously close to April 2014 sales of 115K. Scorpio won't help this at all if its not $399.
 
H

hanspampel

Banned
Yeah Xbox One S really didn't increase the baseline like previous slim refreshes did.

The problem is we can't figure out if it's the same with the Ps4, as they also have the Pro.

Xbox One sales will be down YoY until Scorpio release. There is just not software to drive sales.
Last year April was QB and the Bundle



But being just 10% down YoY for H1 is no problem at all, IF the could manage to be up 10% or more YoY in H2.
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
Welfare said:
Xbox One sales are absolutely pathetic. PS4 having its biggest sales performance this year while XB1 is already back to pre XB1S sales numbers. It's already dangerously close to April 2014 sales of 115K. Scorpio won't help this at all if its not $399.
Click to expand...
The Scorpio will help some I imagine, but before that there will be a conundrum.

The more appealing they will try to make the Scorpio at E3 (and I fully expect it at $399), the more XB1 sales until Nov will drop.

If it somehow doesn't appeal beyond the hardcore Xbox fanbase, then sales will remain average until the usual Holiday bump but then PS4 will have 2 very well priced products (likely $199/ $299) and (even without RDR2) some killer exclusives with high name recognition like Star Wars Battlefront and (I expect) Spider-Man, with probable LE console bundles. Then add GTS (first GT on PS4), perhaps even Days Gone and Dreams on top of the Knack 2 monster (/s) and a bunch of 3rd party exclusives...
Then on top you will have the Switch and the best lineup you've seen in years on a Nintendo platform for Holidays (Zelda Botw, MK8, Arms, Splatoon 2, Xenoblade, SM Odyssey...).

Imo, in spite of the Scorpio, it's shapping up to be a rough Holiday for Xbox (having B tier recognition 1st party exclusives or a new IP instead of Halo or Gears, and AC + Mordor as 3rd parties), but we'll see.
 
D

DriftingSpirit

Member
Welfare said:
Xbox One sales are absolutely pathetic. PS4 having its biggest sales performance this year while XB1 is already back to pre XB1S sales numbers. It's already dangerously close to April 2014 sales of 115K. Scorpio won't help this at all if its not $399.
Click to expand...
I think Scorpio is going to provide a good bump that will help make up for what is happening now but I think what happened with X1S after the holiday will happen with Scorpio too.

It needs big software to help keep momentum. Though, RDR2 should help quite a bit.

hanspampel said:
TEKKEN in June
August is shadow of war and madden

Anything else I'm missing?
Click to expand...
I just checked the releases website and that covers it. Shadow of War and Madden may be able to stabilize X1S somewhat.
 
S

Sangetsu-II

Member
Anybody think XB1 will be below 100k for the month of May next NPD? Can't see anything notable that would change it otherwise. Usually May is the lowest month for consoles right?
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
hanspampel said:
TEKKEN in June
August is shadow of war and madden

Anything else I'm missing?
Click to expand...
Before the heavy weights arrive in Sept (starting with Destiny 2), June has Tekken 7, Dirt 4, Cars 3, Elite Dangerous and Valkyria Revolution, and August Lost Legacy, Middle Earth and Everybody 's Golf (not sure if big, I see people on Gaf freaking out over it often hehe) as well as the traditional Madden to wrap the summer.
 
N

noobie

Banned
MatPiscatella said:
And MLB The Show... WOW. Knocked it out of the park (rimshot.gif) this year.
Click to expand...
Can you kindly elaborate on it a bit more? Isn't it the second month for MLB and based on its past history, it's a decent performer in terms of unit which I doubt have ever hit a million in a year. When we used to get numbers in 2014 n before I think it's sales used to be around 350k for the first month n around 150k second month. So has this changed drastically? Is it doing >500k in a month?
 
D

DriftingSpirit

Member
added_time said:
I wonder if Splatoon 2 will be a breakout hit and improve on the US numbers from the first game since Switch is much more popular than Wii U
Click to expand...
Yeah, that is another big title. I was just more focused on stuff for X1 since it doesn't have much momentum.

I think Splat 2 has a bunch of potential though.
 
mejin

mejin

Member
Sangetsu-II said:
Anybody think XB1 will be below 100k for the month of May next NPD? Can't see anything notable that would change it otherwise. Usually May is the lowest month for consoles right?
Click to expand...

Last year it was up 100k by a nose.

So, chances are high to have no nose this year.
 
M

MatPiscatella

Member
Big wildcard in the release slate before fall for me is ARMS. I'm very curious on how this will do.

Injustice 2 will do very well in May I'm guessing, Splatoon 2, Shadow of War, Madden and Lost Legacy are the other titles I think should be big leading up to September. Might be missing a few.

Sangetsu-II said:
It will probably sell more than any other remaster that's come out this gen for PS4 (excluiding GTA V)
Click to expand...

Whoa. I would be very surprised, but happily so, if this were true.
 
Unknown?

Unknown?

Member
Sangetsu-II said:
It will probably sell more than any other remaster that's come out this gen for PS4 (excluiding GTA V)
Click to expand...
Yeah lots of hype for it. I know people who bought PS4s for it. That's probably not a huge trend but even people who don't game anymore are talking about it.
 
K

KillerMan91

Member
Primethius said:
From September onwards, there should be plenty of insanity but until then, yea, I'm curious as well to see how it'll play out.

Plus, Sony has a forecast of 18 mil (vs. 20 of last year), so I'm waiting to see when that slight down shift in sales occurs (if it does).
Click to expand...

I actually think that most of the difference comes from the fact that during past two quarters Sony overshipped PS4 massively. I mean there was difference of 3.5 million units between shipped and sell trough after christmas and still they shipped extra 2.9 million Q4 to hit that 20 million FY target. Sony could actually sell more PS4s this FY but ship less units. I guess next quarter shipments will show the truth.
 
J

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
ethomaz said:
Yes. Best PS4 April.
Click to expand...

But but but I thought it was sad, looked bad that the NES Classic came in 2nd place...

hanspampel said:
Yeah Xbox One S really didn't increase the baseline like previous slim refreshes did.

The problem is we can't figure out if it's the same with the Ps4, as they also have the Pro.
Click to expand...

Even with that, it does show that the Pro wasnt a waste for Sony. MS should be optimistic about Scorpio.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Still expect an XB1 price drop with E3. They announced the Xbox Game Pass to start June 1 for non-Gold members, so combining that with a "new, lower entry price" for the console would seem to make a lot of marketing sense. Microsoft isn't going to let the system languish through the Summer months. April and May are very different stories. As mentioned, Microsoft even announced the $100 less Kinect-less version to launch in June and didn't seem to care that XB1 sales were incredibly low that May, as a result. April/May being low probably isn't concerning Microsoft a lot.

Sony's been very quiet. They may make a move or they may not. They don't really have to, and they may prefer to just continue with the current sales pattern and let Pro saturate in naturally.
 
L

Liabe Brave

Member
Crossposting from the other thread. Sorry for the delay, but I've finally run a parametric analysis using the results from the Prediction League. The Switch number was announced by Nintendo, and Xbox One has a very constrained ambit, so the calculation for it should be solid. Only PS4 has a range of possibilities. Here are the results for April NPD:

SWI: 280k
PS4: 201k - 229k
XB1: 127k

It's typically best to choose the center of the range as an estimated value, unless there are known skewing factors. There is one here, which is the sales decay curve of previous-gen hardware (360, DS, PS3, PSV, WiiU). This lessening would slightly boost PS4 numbers. However, the effect is likely minor, so I'd suggest dismissing it. The neutral estimate for PS4, then, would be 215k.

Welfare said:
I'd guess XB1 is ~5% down and PS4 up 5%.
Click to expand...
Note that, due to more detailed analysis of confounding factors, I've revised my February estimates for both PS4 and Xbox One slightly downward, to 396k and 226k respectively. Using those new estimates as well as April's above, we get the following:

Code: 
      April YoY   YTD YoY
PS4   +23.0%      +8.0%
XB1   -25.3%      -5.3%
 
P

Primethius

Banned
Liabe Brave said:
Crossposting from the other thread. Sorry for the delay, but I've finally run a parametric analysis using the results from the Prediction League. The Switch number was announced by Nintendo, and Xbox One has a very constrained ambit, so the calculation for it should be solid. Only PS4 has a range of possibilities. Here are the results for April NPD:

SWI: 280k
PS4: 201k - 229k
XB1: 127k

It's typically best to choose the center of the range as an estimated value, unless there are known skewing factors. There is one here, which is the sales decay curve of previous-gen hardware (360, DS, PS3, PSV, WiiU). This lessening would slightly boost PS4 numbers. However, the effect is likely minor, so I'd suggest dismissing it. The neutral estimate for PS4, then, would be 215k.


Note that, due to more detailed analysis of confounding factors, I've revised my February estimates for both PS4 and Xbox One slightly downward, to 396k and 226k respectively. Using those new estimates as well as April's above, we get the following:

Code: 
      April YoY   YTD YoY
PS4   +23.0%      +8.0%
XB1   -25.3%      -5.3%
Click to expand...

Great stuff as always!
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
Liabe Brave said:
Crossposting from the other thread. Sorry for the delay, but I've finally run a parametric analysis using the results from the Prediction League. The Switch number was announced by Nintendo, and Xbox One has a very constrained ambit, so the calculation for it should be solid. Only PS4 has a range of possibilities. Here are the results for April NPD:

SWI: 280k
PS4: 201k - 229k
XB1: 127k

It's typically best to choose the center of the range as an estimated value, unless there are known skewing factors. There is one here, which is the sales decay curve of previous-gen hardware (360, DS, PS3, PSV, WiiU). This lessening would slightly boost PS4 numbers. However, the effect is likely minor, so I'd suggest dismissing it. The neutral estimate for PS4, then, would be 215k.


Note that, due to more detailed analysis of confounding factors, I've revised my February estimates for both PS4 and Xbox One slightly downward, to 396k and 226k respectively. Using those new estimates as well as April's above, we get the following:

Code: 
      April YoY   YTD YoY
PS4   +23.0%      +8.0%
XB1   -25.3%      -5.3%
Click to expand...
Thank you sir.
 
A

allan-bh

Member
Liabe Brave said:
Crossposting from the other thread. Sorry for the delay, but I've finally run a parametric analysis using the results from the Prediction League. The Switch number was announced by Nintendo, and Xbox One has a very constrained ambit, so the calculation for it should be solid. Only PS4 has a range of possibilities. Here are the results for April NPD:

SWI: 280k
PS4: 201k - 229k
XB1: 127k

It's typically best to choose the center of the range as an estimated value, unless there are known skewing factors. There is one here, which is the sales decay curve of previous-gen hardware (360, DS, PS3, PSV, WiiU). This lessening would slightly boost PS4 numbers. However, the effect is likely minor, so I'd suggest dismissing it. The neutral estimate for PS4, then, would be 215k.


Note that, due to more detailed analysis of confounding factors, I've revised my February estimates for both PS4 and Xbox One slightly downward, to 396k and 226k respectively. Using those new estimates as well as April's above, we get the following:

Code: 
      April YoY   YTD YoY
PS4   +23.0%      +8.0%
XB1   -25.3%      -5.3%
Click to expand...

There's an estimate for march?
 
L

Liabe Brave

Member
allan-bh said:
There's an estimate for march?
Click to expand...
Yes, but it has a lot more wiggle room. I came up with this:

Switch: 906k

229k < X1 < 270k
395k < PS4 < 436k
Total: 665k

Using the median choice for both, as I suggested for PS4 this month, would lead to:

PS4: 416k
XB1: 249k

Given there are two linked ranges, though, there's another possibly neutral choice. That is to divide the total uncertainty proportionately among the members, giving:

PS4: 419k
XB1: 246k

Unlike this month, these values partially rely on a comparison with last generation. Welfare had slightly different totals for that than I did. While he deferred to my results, the fact of the mismatch made me feel it would be more conservative to lower my estimates. So the final values I settled on (and which I used in the YoY calculations above) are:

PS4: 407k
XB1: 238k
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Liabe Brave said:
Crossposting from the other thread. Sorry for the delay, but I've finally run a parametric analysis using the results from the Prediction League. The Switch number was announced by Nintendo, and Xbox One has a very constrained ambit, so the calculation for it should be solid. Only PS4 has a range of possibilities. Here are the results for April NPD:

SWI: 280k
PS4: 201k - 229k
XB1: 127k

It's typically best to choose the center of the range as an estimated value, unless there are known skewing factors. There is one here, which is the sales decay curve of previous-gen hardware (360, DS, PS3, PSV, WiiU). This lessening would slightly boost PS4 numbers. However, the effect is likely minor, so I'd suggest dismissing it. The neutral estimate for PS4, then, would be 215k.


Note that, due to more detailed analysis of confounding factors, I've revised my February estimates for both PS4 and Xbox One slightly downward, to 396k and 226k respectively. Using those new estimates as well as April's above, we get the following:

Code: 
      April YoY   YTD YoY
PS4   +23.0%      +8.0%
XB1   -25.3%      -5.3%
Click to expand...

If I may ask, how can you be solid on XB1 at 127K? If we do have a solid XB1 number, then PS4 should be easily found as total April sales were ~320K (Taking the % increase Mat provided minus the total LTD sales we had in March). However, that wouldn't fit with PS4 being >200K.

If we assume NPD did some adjusting to 7th gen and the calculation actually changes April sales to ~330K (unlikely April 2009 and 2010 were changed drastically so I don't see the total increasing much past this point), XB1 at 127K would mean PS4 is at most 203K.
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
Welfare said:
If I may ask, how can you be solid on XB1 at 127K? If we do have a solid XB1 number, then PS4 should be easily found as total April sales were ~320K (Taking the % increase Mat provided minus the total LTD sales we had in March). However, that wouldn't fit with PS4 being >200K.

If we assume NPD did some adjusting to 7th gen and the calculation actually changes April sales to ~330K (unlikely April 2009 and 2010 were changed drastically so I don't see the total increasing much past this point), XB1 at 127K would mean PS4 is at most 203K.
Click to expand...
I believe the difference lies in the round of 29.3% and the previous percent you got.
 
M

MatPiscatella

Member
Yjynx said:
Hi, do we have any range/prediction for January NPD numbers?
Click to expand...

Like... next January?

Yjynx said:
Haha this January. I just curious on spending habit of US market before and after holiday.
Click to expand...

Very broad strokes... Q4 can account for as much as 75% of annual sales volume, a typical January is mid to low single digit %. Of course this varies from year to year. I can go dig into my archives and share % of annual spend by month later this week.
 
Y

Yjynx

Member
MatPiscatella said:
Like... next January?
Click to expand...
Haha this January. I just curious on console sales before and after holiday.


Very broad strokes... Q4 can account for as much as 75% of annual sales volume, a typical January is mid to low single digit %. Of course this varies from year to year. I can go dig into my archives and share % of annual spend by month later this week.
Click to expand...

Thanks appreciate it.
 
mejin

mejin

Member
slavesnyder said:
On point.
People heard that a powerful new xbox is coming out in a few months, so they logically buy a playstation.
Click to expand...

lol

I mean they are similar, so people could change their plans. We do know some people are loyal to a brand, but not everyone is. Take a PS4 and get a Scorpio this fall or next year.
 
A

allan-bh

Member
Liabe Brave said:
Yes, but it has a lot more wiggle room. I came up with this:

Switch: 906k

229k < X1 < 270k
395k < PS4 < 436k
Total: 665k

Using the median choice for both, as I suggested for PS4 this month, would lead to:

PS4: 416k
XB1: 249k

Given there are two linked ranges, though, there's another possibly neutral choice. That is to divide the total uncertainty proportionately among the members, giving:

PS4: 419k
XB1: 246k

Unlike this month, these values partially rely on a comparison with last generation. Welfare had slightly different totals for that than I did. While he deferred to my results, the fact of the mismatch made me feel it would be more conservative to lower my estimates. So the final values I settled on (and which I used in the YoY calculations above) are:

PS4: 407k
XB1: 238k
Click to expand...

I see. Unfortunately we don't have HW numbers as before, but at least these estimates give an idea about what's going on.
 
L

Liabe Brave

Member
Welfare said:
If I may ask, how can you be solid on XB1 at 127K? If we do have a solid XB1 number, then PS4 should be easily found as total April sales were ~320K (Taking the % increase Mat provided minus the total LTD sales we had in March). However, that wouldn't fit with PS4 being >200K.

If we assume NPD did some adjusting to 7th gen and the calculation actually changes April sales to ~330K (unlikely April 2009 and 2010 were changed drastically so I don't see the total increasing much past this point), XB1 at 127K would mean PS4 is at most 203K.
Click to expand...
The Xbox number is from the parametric. It's not impossible that 126k would also work, though it's somewhat less likely.

As for the rest, I apologize. I missed that Mr. Piscatella gave us an updated comparison! That does put a lower cap, but the number isn't as certain as you say. We only have to a tenth of a percent, which still leaves an error margin in the tens of thousands of units. For this reason (among others), even though the calculations I've given so far in 2017 are mostly based on exact current NPD results, they can't be made to perfectly match the reported 29.8% and 29.3% numbers.

Without knowing the exact figures, the best approximation I can obtain would be to raise February back to 400k/230k, and thus leave ~340k for combined March. (There are other reasons to believe that your ~320k number is too low.) There are other manipulations possible, but essentially they fall into two types:

1. Gen 7 is now estimated higher by NPD than I have. No amount of analysis can address this, so if we're to proceed at all we have to ignore the possibility, for right or wrong.
2. Q1 2017 differs month-by-month than what I've calculated, but the quarterly numbers balance out with the quadrimester.

So here's the revised numbers for April, keeping in mind that some thousands of the units may be "shared backward" into prior months.

PS4: 213k
XB1: 127k

Code: 
      April YoY   YTD YoY
PS4   +21.9%      +8.2%
XB1   -25.3%      -4.8%

Yjynx said:
Hi, do we have any range/prediction for January NPD numbers?
Click to expand...

PS4: 211k
XB1: 157k
 
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