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April 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, May 9th

D

donny2112

Member
ITT, predict for the NPD April 2017 retail period (April 2-29, 2017) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, May 9th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: April 2-29, 2017 (4 weeks, March was 5 weeks)
NPD Physical Release: Thursday, May 11th @ 4 p.m. EDT (public thread with physical+digital posted 1 week later on May 18th ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000     [XB1] - 200000


Potential hardware impacting events in April:
Nintendo Switch stock during the month - 28 days
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe release April 28 - 2 days

Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

(March's results not public)
March's #1 predictor
Zedark said:
[NSW] 950k
[PS4] 360k
[XB1] 200k
Click to expand...
Some figuring:
Nintendo said:
The Nintendo Switch system sold more than 906,000 units in March, according to the NPD Group, which tracks video game sales in the United States.
Click to expand...
Zedark said:
I checked these numbers against the other predictions, and PS4 ~ 390k and XB1 > 225k follows logically and doesn't contradict the ranking (i.e., no one overtakes me with these results, for any arbitrary XB1 numbers above 225k). This is the best I can do atm.
Click to expand...

March 2016 NPD thread
April 2016 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
[NSW] 404K
[PS4] 196K
[XB1] 143K

Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of March and April. This is when it is beneficial to compare weekly averages and not just simple month to month, because March is a 5 week month while April is only 4. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for April to help show how the month might be impacted. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts

Code: 
2011

Xbox 360 March: 433K / 5 = 86,600
Xbox 360 April: 297K / 4 = 74,250

Weekly average down 16%

PS3 March: 365K / 5 = 73,000
PS3 April: 204K / 4 = 51,000

Weekly average down 30%

Code: 
Notable Releases in April

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Mortal Kombat 
Portal 2
Michael Jackson: The Experience

[u]PS3[/u]
SOCOM 4
Mortal Kombat
Portal 2
Michael Jackson: The Experience

Code: 
2012

Xbox 360 March: 371K / 5 = 74,200
Xbox 360 April: 236K / 4 = 59,000

Weekly average down 20%

PS3 March: 337K / 5 = 67,400
PS3 April: 172K / 4 = 43,000

Weekly average down 36%

Code: 
Notable Releases in April

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Kinect Star Wars 320GB Bundle $449

Code: 
2013

Xbox 360 March: 261K / 5 = 52,200
Xbox 360 April: 130K / 4 = 32,500

Weekly average down 38%

PS3 March: 211K / 5 = 42,200
PS3 April: 102K / 4 = 25,500

Weekly average down 40%

Code: 
Notable Releases in April

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Injustice: Gods Among Us

[u]PS3[/u]
Injustice: Gods Among Us

Code: 
2014

Xbox 360 March: 111K / 5 = 22,200
Xbox 360 April: 71K / 4 = 17,750

Weekly average down 20%

Xbox One March: 311K / 5 = 62,200
Xbox One April: 115K / 4 = 28,750

Weekly average down 54%

PS3 March: 68K / 5 = 13,600
PS3 April: 35K / 4 = 8,750

Weekly average down 36%

PS4 March: 371K / 5 = 74,200
PS4 April: 199K / 4 = 49,750

Weekly average down 33%

Code: 
Notable Releases in April

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Titanfall [483,000]

[u]PS4[/u]
Final Fantasy XIV: A Realm Reborn

Code: 
2015 

Xbox One March: 229K / 5 = 45,800
Xbox One April: 187K / 4 = 46,750

Weekly average up 2%

PS4 March: 330K / 5 = 66,000
PS4 April: 175K / 4 = 43,750

Weekly average down 34%

Code: 
Notable Releases in April

[u]Xbox One[/u]
Gamestop Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $125 towards Xbox One [3 weeks]
Best Buy Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $175 towards Xbox One [1 week]

Mortal Kombat X [>516k]

[u]PS4[/u]
Mortal Kombat X [>734k]

Code: 
2016

Xbox One March: 242K / 5 = 48,400
Xbox One April: 168K / 4 = 42,000

Weekly average down 13%

PS4 March: 330K / 5 = 66,000
PS4 April: 175K / 4 = 43,750

Weekly average down 34%

Code: 
Notable Releases in April

[u]Xbox One[/u]
$50 price cut on all models March 22nd - April 30th (28 days in April NPD / 4 weeks)

Gamestop Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $100 towards Xbox One [3 weeks]

Dark Souls 3 [3 weeks] [151K]

[u]PS4[/u]
Dark Souls 3 [3 weeks] [353K]
Ratchet & Clank [3 weeks] [207.5K - 237K]

Code: 
2017 March Weekly Averages

Switch: 906K / 5 weeks = 181,200

Xbox One + PS4 [IMG]http://awesomegifs.com/wp-content/uploads/george-michael-snoopy-walk.gif[/IMG]

Code: 
Notable Events in April

[u]Nintendo Switch[/u]
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe [1 week]
LEGO City Undercover [4 weeks]

[u]Xbox One[/u]
LEGO City Undercover [4 weeks]

[u]PS4[/u]
Persona 5  [4 weeks] 
LEGO City Undercover [4 weeks]

Notes:

The end is nigh, the end is nigh, consoles are dead the end is nigh.

Xbox
The Xbox 360 dropped an average of -23%, with a minimum of -14% (2011) and maximum of -38% (2013).

Xbox One has had deals in the 2 previous April's and April 2014 was when the console could no longer sell at $499, even with Titanfall. Those deals helped XB1 sales hold significantly well but there wasn't any type of deal this year. Even though 2 years had fairly good holds, the drop in 2014 helps even out the ”average" to a more normal -22%, but of course this year is more likely to drop more than that.

Playstation
The PS3 dropped an average -35%, with a minimum of -30% (2011) and maximum of -40% (2013).

PS4 has been very consistent every April. It dropped an average of -33%, with a minimum of -33% (2014) and maximum of -34% (2015 AND 2016).

Nintendo
Switch is still selling out everything they ship, and with Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, expect a ton of Switch units to be sold.

The closest comparison we could make with previous Nintendo hardware is 3DS, but it isn't exact 1:1 as 3DS only had 1 week in March 2011 and Switch had a full 5 weeks, but 3DS April 2011 sales were 194K, down from the 398K it launched at, or a month over month drop of -51%. 3DS also wasn't selling out but rather in a very dire situation thanks to no games and high price.

Recap
April is a very clear drop from March.. Weekly average drop from March is ~30%.

The biggest April ever recorded back in the 7th gen was the Wii with 714K back in 2008. Second biggest? Wii again with 360K in 2007.

The biggest April ever recorded in the 8th gen is the PS4 with 199K in 2014. Second biggest? XB1 with 187K in 2015.
 
Z

Zedark

Member
[NSW] 550k
[PS4] 210k
[XB1] 160k

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is gonna slay, I expect them to sell more than a million units in US in April tbh.
 
D

donny2112

Member
ethomaz said:
That is a hard month to predict :(
Click to expand...

I figure supply was held back for MK8DX's release, so April might be higher than a hugely supply-constrained month would normally look like. Will be interesting if Nintendo or NPD gives feedback on what % of Switch sales were in the last week (or days) of the retail month, then.
 
S

Sterok

Member
[NSW] 660k
[PS4] 160k
[XB1] 120k

Will Persona make it to top 3? Will Mario Kart claim the throne, or will Wildlands remain king? Does Mass Effect have any legs? Should be an interesting month even with not much going on.
 
T

ThatRandomCliff

Member
[NSW] 582,053
[PS4] 154,200
[XB1] 98,421

Edit: I'm interested in how well Lego City did. Will it chart? I hope so. Wonder on which console did it sell the most on?
 
J

jonno394

Member
[NSW] 480k
[PS4] 170k
[XB1] 130k

I think Mario Kart will do around 375k. Think MK8 did around that in US during its launch.
 
Unknown?

Unknown?

Member
Switch will be significantly down due to supply constraints. PS4 will be nearly double XB1. Persona 5 makes it in top 5.

[NSW] 400K
[PS4] 180K
[XB1] 105K
 
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