Sure, it's not an unreasonable estimate, but I expect a slightly lower attach rate for BOTW to Switch sales because of consumers interested only in MK8D, and as such they might need to sell 1.5+ million Switch, which is really a lot.
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Nintendo 2016 Fiscal Year Earnings Release: Targeting 10 million Switches this f-year
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
They do grow. Its an OK target. Its more realistic than they ever were with 3DS or Wii U, thats for sure.
3DS first year for comparison:
HW forecast: 16 million.
HW actual: 13.53 million. (but took a very fast, very large pricecut to do so)
SW forecast:
SW forecast: 62 million (not counting bundled software)
SW actual: 36 million (counting bundled software)
i talk to smaller publishers and everyone's pretty excited about the machine. it's not like vita where there was a sort of ho-hum 'oh well our psp fanbase is here now' - it's more of a matter of striking while the iron is hot because people are buying games like crazy for the thing right now.
well i think nintendo could probably clear about 15 million across mario kart, pokemon, and mario odyssey rather easily. maybe 20-25m on the upper limit if splatoon 2 really blows up. the rest being third-party games should make sense considering how hungry the fanbase seems. i can see both sonic games clearing 2m each between us and europe for instance.
AdventureRacing
Member
That's a great first month of sales. I feel the 10 million is quite conservative given current demand. I could see as much as 4 million of that coming just from Japan. If they have anymore big titles coming in that time they'll smash 10 million IMO.
Sgt. Kabukiman
Banned
Zelda did what Pac-Man couldn't. It outsold its own hardware.
1.5m breaks down fairly easily if it's 700k north america, 500k europe, and 300k japan. it depends if nintendo's been planning on holding onto stock for april's big new title too.
Aceofspades
Banned
Playstations always have that WW appeal to them, PS4 numbers are truly phenomenal.
Bruno MB
Member
Nintendo are overly optimistic with their Nintendo 3DS forecast of 6 million units shipped. That would be just 1 million less than the previous year. They can be happy if Nintendo 3DS reaches 4 - 4.5 million units. At least it is a lock the system will surpass 70 million mark, I wonder if it can make it to 75 million. Below Game Boy Advance but not as far as 2015 results suggested before 2016 Pokémon resurgence.
i think that they'll hit 16m ltd before the end of the fy.
japan: 4m
europe: 5m
us: 7m
the real question mark here is europe, i think. if they can get to this level, they'll be on their way to outselling the 3ds, and their plan for the second generation of switch games had better be good.
Cross release Pokemon game for 3DS and Switch LETS GO
That 4.2m number is the total by the end of December 2013 btw, so an extra half month of USA sales at least, but no Japanese sales.
Poeople like you and people who bought the game but weren't able to buy the console I imagine are the reason.
Charles Brandon
Member
They should buy the gaming divisions and more importantly the IP of both Konami and Capcom. Get the band back together.
Could be tough market conditions for the Scorpio launch. The assumption was that Nintendo would have to work hard not to be eclipsed by Scorpio at Christmas, possibly a contributory factor to the March launch. Now, it's Scorpio with the problem (if Nintendo can keep the hype going). They've got the water-cooler system to their left and Sony to their right with all the AAA tie-ups.
Could be tough market conditions for the Scorpio launch. The assumption was that Nintendo would have to work hard not to be eclipsed by Scorpio at Christmas, possibly a contributory factor to the March launch. Now, it's Scorpio with the problem (if Nintendo can keep the hype going). They've got the water-cooler system to their left and Sony to their right with all the AAA tie-ups.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Also helps that it's two months during the holidays.
As a comparison, for the hardware / software expectations: PS4 sold 18.5 million units with 81.8 million games (tie ratio: 4.42) as of January 4th, 2015. Sony includes digital-only games in their statements, while Nintendo doesn't.
Anyway, I'm expecting the current forecasts to be far more on the safe side of the spectrum and thus something they can surpass with no struggles, provided things go as well as they are right now.
Anyway, I'm expecting the current forecasts to be far more on the safe side of the spectrum and thus something they can surpass with no struggles, provided things go as well as they are right now.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
That was without Japanese/Asian launch as well.
AdventureRacing
Member
I was thinking 14-15 (with room to go higher) but yeah I think 10 is conservative. I agree that Europe is where it'll struggle most as long as it's not a total failure I can see it challenging 3DS WW long term.
Yeah that's a very optimistic prediction unless they have some big surprises coming. No way it comes that close to the switch either.
You monster.
test_account
XP-39C²
Nice 
Why is it relevant? Personally, i cant remember the last time i've seen someone saying that Nintendo is doomed and truly ment it. I only see people using it sarcastically.
These will have you covered:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1364797
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1364803
Principate
Saint Titanfall
During the 3DS and Wii u and even the switch a heck of a lot really. Look through the switch reveal thread (January one). I mean there's a lot of overcompetition in it's use by Nintendo fans but it's still used a fair bit, or heavily implied.Nice
Why is it relevant? Personally, i cant remember the last time i've seen someone saying that Nintendo is doomed and truly ment it. I only see people using it sarcastically.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
Unfortunately I just came from the future and WWIII begins at the beginning of next year and all the Switch factories switch to producing weaponry.
The last Switch sold will be number 13,559,999.
AcademicSaucer
Member
10 million seems kind of insane unless they show HD Pokemon for release in 2018
Cool bro. Thanks.
-Mutsukki-
Member
Oh dang, I stand corrected then! Seems like Hexadrive are good devs. (Konami too obviously when they let them do work)
Mr. Pointy
Member
How much money did Nintendo actually make? I'm guessing it's the 29 billion yen number, but it's a bit confusing.
You mean Christmas 2017? Along with a limited edition Nintendo Switch with Pikachu skinned joycons?
Made with real Pikachu hide.
Herb Alpert
Banned
given the demand right now, given MK8, Splatoon, Mario odyssey and probably a lot of unannouced titles (including Pokemon) it does on the contrary seem quite safe...
10 million seems super conservative with their lineup and current sales.
10m between now and next march is 2.5m japan, 3m europe/other regions, and 4.5m north america. it's super doable.
It makes me laugh that their forecast is essentially to match the Wii U by the end of the fiscal year, and we all think it's too conservative
ChasingComets
Member
I've actually got a question about this; how much of an impact does the holiday period actually have on the initial sell-through of a new hardware launch? Because I would assume a lot of the early adopters are made up of enthusiasts, so would the time period of launch have that much of a significant impact on the numbers?
the first sign for people that this was not going to be the wii u was the october video. not only was it perfect, but it's currently over 30m views, about 3m less than the ps4 commercial sony ran in 2013 after their reveal conference.
the super mario odyssey reveal trailer currently has 20m views on youtube. and i know that this isn't how all success is gauged, but the device and the games for it are obviously reaching a lot of people or at least exciting a few million to the point where they're paying a lot of attention.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
That just shows how much of a bomb the WiiU was. The 3DS did 12 million in its first FY. Switch being on par with 3DS is the best one can hope for.
Do you know what the 3ds lifetime numbers are?
SinCityAssassin
Member
66 million.
D.Lo
Member
This is actually really sad. Coming up to two years
That would be pretty good number for the switch if they reach that.