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WSJ: Nintendo Earnings: What to Watch

G

ggx2ac

Member
Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/nintendo-earnings-what-to-watch-1493010628

EARNINGS FORECAST: Analysts polled by data provider Quick expect Nintendo to report a net profit of ¥94.4 billion ($865.6 million) for the 12 months ended March 31, more than five times the year-earlier ¥16.5 billion.

REVENUE FORECAST: The analysts forecast revenue of ¥477.6 billion ($4.35 billion), down from ¥504.5 billion a year ago and slightly higher than Nintendo’s own guidance of ¥470 billion.

SWITCH: Nintendo plans to reveal March sales of its console-handheld hybrid Switch, launched globally on March 3. Analysts expect the number to around 2.3 million to 2.5 million, above Nintendo’s initial target of two million. Nintendo will also give a sales target for the current fiscal year. Demand remains strong, and The Wall Street Journal reported last month the company is beefing up the production plans for the fiscal 2017, though its sales target may be conservative to reduce risk of a later guidance downgrade.

SWITCH SOFTWARE: Along with a sales forecast for the Switch itself, Nintendo will also announce how many copies of Switch software it expects to sell this fiscal year. Analysts say 20 million copies, including titles by outside developers, would be a fair number and anything beyond 25 million a positive surprise—and a good indication that Nintendo is confident about sales of the Switch itself. A positive software-sales outlook would suggest that even if the console forecast itself is conservative, there is a strong chance of an upgrade later.

RETRO: Nintendo last year released a revival version of its Nintendo Entertainment System console that originally hit the market more than three decades ago. Thought it has been popular, Nintendo has decided to halt production for now because it is working on a “related project” that could be formally announced soon. Any products from the console-revival project line are meant to reawaken the gaming passion of grown-ups who used to play, and so get them to buy a Switch. Neither the production volume nor the revenue contribution from the line itself would be large.
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He also talks about Smartphone games and QoL in the article. There's nothing new there though, we've heard nothing about QoL and the next mobile game is Animal Crossing which will probably get an announced release date. (Aside from another two or three more mobile games for the new fiscal year.)

Note: Nintendo gives their next financial results on April 27th (JST) this week.
 
C

Cerium

Member
gjc3b4s.gif
 
S

Serenitynow

Member
Earnings Release on the 28th.

Is there an Earnings Briefing on the 29th? They had one last year but when I googled it I couldn't find anything definitive for this year.
 
G

ggx2ac

Member
Serenitynow said:
Earnings Release on the 28th.

Is there an Earnings Briefing on the 29th? They had one last year but when I googled it I couldn't find anything definitive for this year.
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I'm using the local timezone in Japan to reduce confusion since the results come from Japan.

Edit: Yes, the briefing is likely the day after.
 
C

Cuburt

Member
RETRO: Nintendo last year released a revival version of its Nintendo Entertainment System console that originally hit the market more than three decades ago. Thought it has been popular, Nintendo has decided to halt production for now because it is working on a “related project” that could be formally announced soon. Any products from the console-revival project line are meant to reawaken the gaming passion of grown-ups who used to play, and so get them to buy a Switch. Neither the production volume nor the revenue contribution from the line itself would be large.
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Sounds about right. Set your expectations accordingly. They aren't making a ton of money of the "Classic" series and they don't plan to produce a lot of product that doesn't contribute a lot to their portfolio so getting people excited about those games are fine, they just need to make sure people have other ways to get their hands on them.
 
-hadouken

-hadouken

Member
Cuburt said:
...they just need to make sure people have other ways to get their hands on them.
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You're missing the point - the Classic line is an exercise in brand boosting. Making 'em hard to get drives interest in Nintendo and generates buzz in way that conventional marketing can't.
 
F

frankie_baby

Member
Cuburt said:
Sounds about right. Set your expectations accordingly. They aren't making a ton of money of the "Classic" series and they don't plan to produce a lot of product that doesn't contribute a lot to their portfolio so getting people excited about those games are fine, they just need to make sure people have other ways to get their hands on them.
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They made like what 2 million mini nes tops? I could see them doing twice as many for the snes
 
S

Speely

Banned
frankie_baby said:
They made like what 2 million mini nes tops? I could see them doing twice as many for the snes
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Or they make the same amount and generate more hype for VC on the Switch via scarcity. I mean, that's how I view these retro minis: a way to emphasize how in-demand Nintendo's older games are while preparing for a paid online service with VC.

I might be wrong, but it makes sense to me.
 
J

jdstorm

Banned
That 20M total game sales number seems really low for the next financial year. With Nintendo planning on producing something like 16M Switch consoles over that same period. Assuming they sell half, thats a 2 game attatch rate on a console featuring Mario Kart, Splatoon, a new 3D mario and Zelda BotW.
 
H

Hero of Legend

Member
It might be possible for something new to be announced, it was March last year when Zelda Wii U was announced for NX (along with a delay to 2017) and also I think we got the announcement of E3 bring ONLY about Zelda Wii U, with a no-show for NX.

We got nothing last month so they might say something significant here, who knows.

I'm certain we've gotten some decent news from the fiscal meetings before.

Edit: OH, it WAS in April during this time, even better!

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1212191
 
plank

plank

Member
Cuburt said:
Sounds about right. Set your expectations accordingly. They aren't making a ton of money of the "Classic" series and they don't plan to produce a lot of product that doesn't contribute a lot to their portfolio so getting people excited about those games are fine, they just need to make sure people have other ways to get their hands on them.
Click to expand...

I'll set it alright, if people are willing to pay $60 - $100. Expect Nintendo to adjust accordingly.
 
F

frankie_baby

Member
Speely said:
Or they make the same amount and generate more hype for VC on the Switch via scarcity. I mean, that's how I view these retro minis: a way to emphasize how in-demand Nintendo's older games are while preparing for a paid online service with VC.

I might be wrong, but it makes sense to me.
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They could make nearer 10 million and there'd still be crazy demand and scarcity
 
T

Tobor

Member
bourgeois said:
You're missing the point - the Classic line is an exercise in brand boosting. Making 'em hard to get drives interest in Nintendo and generates buzz in way that conventional marketing can't.
Click to expand...

Making them impossible to get irritates the fuck out of people and hurts the brand.

Whatever they decide to do in this space in the future, it needs to be accessible to the public or they shouldn't bother.
 
M

maxcriden

Member
Thought it has been popular, Nintendo has decided to halt production for now because it is working on a “related project” that could be formally announced soon.
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Thanks for posting this! More fuel for the SNES Mini fire.

jdstorm said:
That 20M total game sales number seems really low for the next financial year. With Nintendo planning on producing something like 16M Switch consoles over that same period. Assuming they sell half, thats a 2 game attatch rate on a console featuring Mario Kart, Splatoon, a new 3D mario and Zelda BotW.
Click to expand...

I hear ya, but it's worth noting those 16M expectations are rumored and not yet confirmed.
 
S

Skittzo0413

Member
I wonder why the operating costs are thought to be so much lower for this FY... Aren't there some pretty hefty costs involved in launching and shipping a new console? Or is R&D typically more expensive than actually manufacturing and launching?
 
K

kitchenmotors

Banned
Gamecocks625 said:
Snes basically confirmed. Ugh. Will need one to complete my childhood Nintendo memories collection NES/SNES
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Just my two cents but... I think people are missing the mark with this SNES mini they keep dreaming up.

I feel Nintendo Classics are coming to the Switch, with specialized controllers. I think this is the reason for discontinuing a product that would eat into sales of the Switch and the streamlined model for the future.
 
D

Dark Cloud

Member
If Nintendo really didn't make much money from each NES Classic then I definitely would expect SNES Classic to be more than $60. I already expected it to be atleast $80. Now I'm thinking it could be $100.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
iwata said nx would lead them back to nintendo-like profits. this was the year that would happen.

a bit short of a billion misses his mark, but it would be a great return to form nonetheless.
 
Polygonal_Sprite

Polygonal_Sprite

Gold Member
AniHawk said:
iwata said nx would lead them back to nintendo-like profits. this was the year that would happen.

a bit short of a billion misses his mark, but it would be a great return to form nonetheless.
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It would be nice if they hit it just for him :'( I think they would have hit it easily had they been able to manufacture unlimited Switch consoles to satisfy demand.

Dark Cloud said:
If Nintendo really didn't make much money from each NES Classic then I definitely would expect SNES Classic to be more than $60. I already expected it to be atleast $80. Now I'm thinking it could be $100.
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More expensive with less games is my bet - $99 / 20 games.
 
S

Speely

Banned
AniHawk said:
iwata said nx would lead them back to nintendo-like profits. this was the year that would happen.

a bit short of a billion misses his mark, but it would be a great return to form nonetheless.
Click to expand...

Is it coincedence that a man who showed patience when considering the future has a name that's an anagram for "a wait?"

Of course it is, but I will still consider it a charming thing.
 
F

Fantastical

Death Prophet
Dark Cloud said:
If Nintendo really didn't make much money from each NES Classic then I definitely would expect SNES Classic to be more than $60. I already expected it to be atleast $80. Now I'm thinking it could be $100.
Click to expand...

I think they could price it at $100. Scalpers will selling the NES for more than that. I think it's the smart move.
 
G

ggx2ac

Member
Speely said:
Is it coincedence that a man who showed patience when considering the future has a name that's an anagram for "a wait?"

Of course it is, but I will still consider it a charming thing.
Click to expand...

I think "await" is the exact word you're looking for, no spacing.
 
F

Fast Forward

Member
Gamecocks625 said:
Snes basically confirmed. Ugh. Will need one to complete my childhood Nintendo memories collection NES/SNES
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Probably, and now I'm all the more confused why the NES CE was discontinued. As much as I hated that decision, as they could have easily sold several million more units, I could at least under the logic of them wanting to focus on the Switch. However, producing a SNES CE, if it is indeed true, would be just as counter-productive.
 
J

jdstorm

Banned
I would be shocked if there were less games. Nintendo have enough first party titles with no liscencing issues to easily hit 20 games. Thats before you include some of the first party sports games, Rare Games like Donkey Kong Country and essential 3rd party output from Konomi Square and Capcom
 
entremet

entremet

Member
Skittzo0413 said:
I wonder why the operating costs are thought to be so much lower for this FY... Aren't there some pretty hefty costs involved in launching and shipping a new console? Or is R&D typically more expensive than actually manufacturing and launching?
Click to expand...

Hell yes!

There's no immediate revenue in R&D.
 
D

Dark Cloud

Member
Hattori said:
does anything get revealed on these earnings calls?
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Last year Kimishima told us only BotW would be at E3 and there would be no NX talk.

So he could talk about E3 again. Plus we get forecasts for hardware/software and see when games are expected to release.

Many people are wanting to see if Xenoblade Chronicles 2 is still coming in 2017 for the west. It can still be pushed back of course, but seeing it still say 2017 is a good sign.
 
-hadouken

-hadouken

Member
Tobor said:
Making them impossible to get irritates the fuck out of people and hurts the brand.

Whatever they decide to do in this space in the future, it needs to be accessible to the public or they shouldn't bother.
Click to expand...
Angry or not, the scarcity (in conjunction with the scalper prices) raises the profile of the company and the perceived value of Nintendo products for the average consumer. They don't care that Gaffers are pissed - the Classic series is money better spent that conventional marketing. Expect more of the same come Holiday 2017.
 
S

Skittzo0413

Member
entremet said:
Hell yes!

There's no immediate revenue in R&D.
Click to expand...

I'm not talking revenue, I'm talking about costs. The analysts are apparently anticipating less revenue than last year but far higher net profits, which would indicate that operating costs would be far lower for this year.
 
R

respawnIN10

Banned
Fast Forward said:
Probably, and now I'm all the more confused why the NES CE was discontinued. As much as I hated that decision, as they could have easily sold several million more units, I could at least under the logic of them wanting to focus on the Switch. However, producing a SNES CE, if it is indeed true, would be just as counter-productive.
Click to expand...

I think they halted production so quickly so they could limit the amount of backlash of what they're actually doing. I think they're building an actual al-in-one virtual console, including NES, SNES, and hopefully more. I know that might eliminate the possibility of a VC on the Switch, but Nintendo has Nintendo'd before, and I expect Nintendo to Nintendo again.
 
D

darkstar0155

Member
Best move imo:

Make a upgraded NES Mini and a SNES mini that has wifi to DL from the new Nintendo VC. Make this cross buy with the switch. Make the controllers wireless, and compatible with switch.

I think it shows there is much more demand to play these games on a miniature version of the machines people loved, than to play them on their new console. Making the controllers wireless though and the game compatible with the switch just gives both pieces of hardware more value for very little cost.
 
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