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The South Carolina Democratic primary, 2008, takes place on January 26, 2008. It is one of several key early state nominating contests in the process of choosing nominees of the Democratic party for the November 2008 election for President of the United States.

As of 2008, the primary has cemented its place as the "First in the South" primary for both parties. For the Democrats, the primary is significant because it is the first nominating contest in which a large percentage (perhaps 50% or greater) of primary voters will be African Americans.[1]

The Republican presidential primary in South Carolina was held on January 19, 2008, a week earlier than the Democratic primary.

Results of prior primaries

* 1992: Bill Clinton won with approximately 69% of the vote, defeating Paul Tsongas.[2]
* 2000: Al Gore won with 92% of the vote, defeating Bill Bradley.[3]
* 2004: John Edwards won with 45% of the vote, defeating John Kerry.[4]

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Q: When is the primary?

A: Saturday.

Q: What's at stake for the Democrats?

A: The campaign has come down to a clash between Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton that threatens to divide two of the party's most dependable constituencies, African-Americans — who make up nearly nhalf the Democratic voters — and women. Former President Bill Clinton suggested that his wife may lose because many black voters will side with Obama. A majority of black voters in South Carolina has consistently been women, so Clinton also may have trouble counting on the overwhelming support of female voters that carried her to victories in New Hampshire and last weekend in Nevada.

Q. Who really needs a boost?

A. John Edwards, who won in South Carolina, in 2004, needs to do so again to prove he belongs in the race.

Q. How many Demoratic delegates are up for grabs?

A. There are 45 elected delegates. Candidates who get at least 15 percent of the vote get a share of those delegates.

Q. Who are some of Clinton's supporters?

A. Prominent black leaders from the "old guard" of the civil rights movement — Rep. John Lewis, an Atlanta Democrat, former U.N. Ambassador Andrew Young, Rep. Charles Rangel (D-N.Y.) and the Rev. Calvin O. Butts of Harlem's Abyssinian Baptist Church - have endorsed her.

Q. And Obama's?

A. Younger black leaders, such as Newark Mayor Cory Booker, Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-Ill.) and the Rev. Raphael Warnock, pastor of Atlanta's Ebenezer Baptist Church (the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.'s pulpit), have championed Obama.

2004 PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS

George Bush 58 percent, John Kerry 40.9 percent

2000 PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS

George Bush 57 percent, Al Gore 41 percent

SOUTH CAROLINA QUICK FACTS

- Population: 4,321,249 (2006)

- White, 68.5 percent, black, 29 percent

- Median household income (2004): $39,454

- 12th poorest state in the United States with 15.7 percent of people below the poverty level

- November unemployment rate: 5.9 percent

- South Carolina, the site of one of the next stops in the presidential primaries, is the nation's 11th fastest-growing state. Its 2007 population of 4.4 million grew 9.9 percent between 2000 and 2007. The U.S. population grew by 7.2 percent during that same time period.

— The Palmetto State has a higher percentage of blacks, a lower percentage of Hispanics and a lower percentage of foreign-born than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics.

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According to Reuter's and the Zogby polls, Obama comes in first with a healthy lead over Clinton by 13%. While the other polls differ in the distance between the two candidates, they do give Barak Obama a minimum of 10 percentage points over Hillary Clinton. However, the Edwards campaign seems to be making a dismal showing in South Carolina and the polls indicate that he will come in at a distant third.

If the polls are accurate in this instance, it is likely that Obama will run away with the South Carolina delegates in his back pocket. Nevertheless, there are some aspects of this Primary that must be considered. There are still undecided voters, which may just decide at the last moment to pull the lever for the Clinton campaign. These undecided voters may just close the distance between the campaigns of the two front-runners, making it a very close vote.

If this were the case, then it would be difficult for either of the candidates to use Primary in particular, as a mandate to bolster their argument of electibility. It is my belief that due to whatever reasons, this Primary will be closer than expected and neither candidate will be able to use it in their favor, other than to say that they won the Primary.

It is clear that according to the poll results, Barak Obama should have an easy victory, but as we saw in New Hampshire, the polls do not always reflect the outcome.

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AdamChrisH said:

Any idea as to when results will start coming in? I'm assuming something like 11/12 hours from now? (Scuse my ignorance - UKer here!)

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VALIS said:

About 10 hours from now.

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AdamChrisH said:

Cheers! Haha, perfect... Means I can head down the pub, and by the time I come back results will be coming in and gives me sommat to drunkenly watch.

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PhoenixDark said:

Any early exit polls or anything?

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VALIS said:

2hrs. to go.

Anyone here from South Carolina? It seems like there's a lot of racial tension there. Watching Obama and Clinton campaign there this afternoon and this week, Obama's audience is almost all black, Hillary's is almost all white, and the polls reflect this, too.

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VALIS said:

Ive been looking all day for someone doing exit polls and I can't find any.

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maximum360 said:

Either way it's a Clinton victory.

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speculawyer said:

That is the way it should be.

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speculawyer said:

Not if she gets third. (But she probably won't.)

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PhoenixDark said:

Any early exit polls or anything?

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maximum360 said:

Hillary has already moved on from SC. She left Bill there to do her work though. If she comes in third, she'll only spin it and say that race was the reason why Obama won. The more Obama gets painted as the "black candidate", the less likely he is to get white or even latino votes.

Hillary has nothing to lose here IMO (or very little). The only way it would bad for her is if she lost badly and if Obama picks up a good percentage of white voters (very unlikely).

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Hootie said:

I really hope Obama can pull out a ~10% win, because if not, Hillary will go claim it's a victory for her.

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maximum360 said:

Either way it's a Clinton victory. They baited the media into bringing race into the conversation and when the surrogatges on both side picked up on it, pandora's box was already opened. After that, all Bill and Hill had to do was spin it to suit their interests.

If Obama gets most of the black vote and wins, he's the "Black" candidate. That will drive white voters away (and he'll lose the meager percentage of latino voters he has).

If on the other hand, Hillary pulls an upset, she will probably completely take away any chances at all that he may have of getting the nomination.

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maximum360 said:

Hillary has already moved on from SC.
Hillary has nothing to lose here IMO (or very little). The only way it would bad for her is if she lost badly and if Obama picks up a good percentage of white voters (very unlikely).

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VALIS said:

2hrs. to go.

Anyone here from South Carolina? It seems like there's a lot of racial tension there. Watching Obama and Clinton campaign there this afternoon and this week, Obama's audience is almost all black, Hillary's is almost all white, and the polls reflect this, too.

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Azwethinkweiz said:

There's no racial tension in my part of the state. It's pretty liberal over here though. I voted for Obama btw.

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grandjedi6 said:

Stupid CNN, they don't list him but Mike Gravel is actually on SC's ticket

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Shawnwhann said:

The big interactive boards that CNN is doing its analysis on are really impressive, it almost looks like Microsoft Surface...

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thekad said:

So why is Hillary campaigning in Florida(or so I've heard)? Does she have no sense of ethics?

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Jason Horowitz of The New York Observer reports that he overheard top Hillary adviser Howard Wolfson suggesting in a phone call with a Florida elected official that the Florida no-campaign pledge "agreement is off" and that Hillary might reconsider coming to the state.

This was in reaction to the news today that Obama's new national ad is airing in Florida, a possible violation of the pledge agreed upon by the leading Dem candidates not to campaign there to punish the state for moving up its primary in violation of DNC rules. This is the "agreement" that Wolfson was referring to.

The Hillary campaign opened fire on the Obama camp in a conference call with reporters today, accusing Obama of breaking the pledge. That prompted Obama spokesperson Bill Burton to issue a statement saying that “both national cable networks told us it would be impossible for us to run advertising nationally that excluded only Florida."

The DNC has stripped Florida of its delegates, so any win in Florida would be symbolic -- enabling the winner to proclaim a popular mandate. As of now, it's too early to say how this will play out; the Hillary campaign is refusing to say anything about Wolfson's overheard comments. But if the Hillary campaign does seize on this Obama ad as an opening to enter Florida, it could open up yet another front in the war between the two.

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6:11 pm: EXIT POLL INFO: Preliminary exit poll results indicate what our smart people are calling a "very large turnout" among African-American voters -- definitely more than 50 percent of voters in South Carolina are black, according to the early numbers, compared to 47 percent in 2004, and 43 percent in 1992. There's also heavy turnout among female voters, who are making up about 6 in 10 S.C. voters.

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thefro said:

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/01/live-blogging-s.html

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