• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

March 2008 NPD Analysis (next-gen.biz)

J

jvm

Gamasutra.
This month's article is up this morning at next-gen.biz.

I know I normally link to these pieces and offer some snippets, but today I have meetings all day long and so no time to really do that. I did see someone ask about LTD sales of Smash Bros. games and I thought I'd answer that with official data in the form of a graph:
33enbpk.gif

There are some other things in there that might be interesting, like the roughly 33% increase in ASP since February 2006. I think we might want to keep that in mind when we compare historical software revenue to this year's figures.

As per usual, I expect you guys to rip things to pieces. That's why I come here, after all. Sorry I won't be around until much later today...meetings...meetings...meetings... :^\

Don't forget that Jesse Divnich of The simExchange will be posting new stuff on Gamasutra throughout the week, as he did last month. Here is yesterday's post by him.

In case you'd like to review previous threads:
February 2008
January 2008
December and all of 2007
November 2007
October 2007
 
P

PuppetSlave

Member
Did SSBM really sell almost 4 million in US alone in the first month!? Thats crazy. On the cube no less.

*edit* Ok read your article and now I see that is life long sales. Your graph is a bit misleading though. It fooled me!
 
I

imek

Member
Incredible sales overall for Smash Bros. all round, will be interesting to see what Brawl does over it's lifetime.
 
F

fernoca

Member
PuppetSlave said:
Did SSBM really sell almost 4 million in US alone in the first month!? Thats crazy. On the cube no less.
Click to expand...
Key word: One month of Brawl sales
The'64' and 'Melee' are it's LTD numbers, 'Brawl' is 1 month.
('Melee' sold 500k+ on it's first month -December 2001-)
 
S

sajj316

Member
Wow! Interesting comparison between Melee and Brawl considering. Anyone want to do a Brawl versus Melee ... Cube versus Wii sales chart? I would have expected Brawl and Melee sales to be about the same but the difference is staggering. This could be an indication that Nintendo loyal fans of last gen were lost to PS3 and 360 this gen but the influx of casual gamers tilting the HW sales edge to the Wii.

.... EDIT -> I take what I said back. I see the comparison now.
 
F

fernoca

Member
The Smash Bros. graph is basically showing that:
-Brawl outsold '64' LTD numbers (70+ months)... in 1 month.
-Brawl is over 50% of Melee LTDs (60+ months) ...in 1 month.
 
M

Man God

Non-Canon Member
fernoca said:
Key word: One month of Brawl sales
The'64' and 'Melee' are it's LTD numbers, 'Brawl' is 1 month.
('Melee' sold 500k+ on it's first month -December 2001-)
Click to expand...

Took me awhile to work this one out.

Makes sense though, SSBM was near launch and SSB was an unknown quantity with little fanfare.
 
A

_Alkaline_

Member
sajj316 said:
Wow! Interesting comparison between Melee and Brawl considering. Anyone want to do a Brawl versus Melee ... Cube versus Wii sales chart? I would have expected Brawl and Melee sales to be about the same but the difference is staggering. This could be an indication that Nintendo loyal fans of last gen were lost to PS3 and 360 this gen but the influx of casual gamers tilting the HW sales edge to the Wii.

.... EDIT -> I take what I said back. I see the comparison now.
Click to expand...

You were about to get a massive WTF from me.

Back to the data, Brawl really has pulled insane numbers. I mean, to this day it's no doubt already managed 5 million WW and it hasn't even been released in Europe yet. :lol
 
S

sajj316

Member
fernoca said:
The Smash Bros. graph is basically showing that:
-Brawl outsold '64' LTD numbers (70+ months)... in 1 month.
-Brawl is over 50% of Melee LTDs (60+ months) ...in 1 month.
Click to expand...

This is astonishing .. can you say 'CRUSHED'

crush1.gif
 
D.Lo

D.Lo

Member
Over 1.2 million current-generation consoles were sold, compared to fewer than 600,000 such consoles a year earlier, and each system's sales were up year-on-year.
Click to expand...
Wasn't March last year 4 weeks, therefore all systems were down (except the Wii) on a weekly basis? Or am I just thinking February 08?

Pretty good this month overall though.

DeaconKnowledge said:
march-2008-npd-next-gen_html_7e2a8c9f.gif


This image interests me. Probably the most realistic trending chart I've read from a gaming website.
Click to expand...
True that, except that most of that Wii chart was supply constrained, and as it appears this is finally being lifted. Based on more recent trending the Wii will pass the 360 much sooner.

mysticstylez said:
Time will tell if it has the same legs that SSBM had.
Click to expand...
Hardly matters though, it will easily breeze past Melee even without much in the way of long term legs, and will pretty easily hit 10 million worldwide. If it keeps selling like Melee did, who knows what the upper limit is.
 
Z

Zombie James

Banned
D.Lo said:
True that, except that most of that Wii chart was supply constrained, and as it appears this is finally being lifted. Based on more recent trending the Wii will pass the 360 much sooner.
Click to expand...

Well...

Even in the short term, these models can be poor predictors – a price drop or the launch of a big game (like Grand Theft Auto 4 next month) could easily push a system's sales far above what the linear model suggests.
Click to expand...
 
C

Cheez-It

Member
_leech_ said:
Well...
Click to expand...

WRT the GTA IV pushing console sales above the linear analysis...

Which do you think will sell more consoles: Wii Fit, or GTA IV?

Personally, I see the sorts of people interested in GTA IV as having a PS3 or 360 already. Sure, there will be people coming late to the game who haven't invested yet, but my guess is that they won't be a massive enough surge to push much above that line... And I would imagine that the Wii line, if supply continues, will continue at a higher rate than the linear indication... particularly when you consider Wii Fit. Wii Fit seems like the sort of game that will get all sorts of random people to want to pick up a Wii.
 
J

JoshuaJSlone

Member
Since March marks the end of the first quarter of the year, we can also compare 1Q 2007 to 1Q 2008. The Xbox 360 has sold just a few more systems in the first quarter of 2008 than it sold in the first quarter of 2007 – that is, the first quarters of the two years are roughly comparable. However, Nintendo sold more Wii's from January to March of 2008 than it sold from January to April of 2007 – four months of last year's sales in only three months this year. Finally, Sony has sold more PlayStation 3 systems in 1Q 2008 than it sold in the entire first half of 2007 – that is, six months of last year's sales in only three months of this year.
Click to expand...
It's also notable that last year's January was 5 weeks while this year's was 4. Beating 2007 is even more significant when it's only 13 weeks versus 14 weeks.

Though I see you bring this up in the revenue discussion on the final page.

D.Lo said:
Wasn't March last year 4 weeks, therefore all systems were down (except the Wii) on a weekly basis? Or am I just thinking February 08?
Click to expand...
March (and June, September, December) is always five weeks.
 
C

Crushed

Fry Daddy
PuppetSlave said:
Did SSBM really sell almost 4 million in US alone in the first month!? Thats crazy. On the cube no less.

*edit* Ok read your article and now I see that is life long sales. Your graph is a bit misleading though. It fooled me!
Click to expand...
sajj316 said:
Wow! Interesting comparison between Melee and Brawl considering. Anyone want to do a Brawl versus Melee ... Cube versus Wii sales chart? I would have expected Brawl and Melee sales to be about the same but the difference is staggering. This could be an indication that Nintendo loyal fans of last gen were lost to PS3 and 360 this gen but the influx of casual gamers tilting the HW sales edge to the Wii.

.... EDIT -> I take what I said back. I see the comparison now.
Click to expand...
11twm76.jpg


Maybe this would be a better graph for the OP?
 
S

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
jvm;

Great job as always. I feel bad because whenever you post these things I'm always on page one with something to complain about, but let me assure you that the reason I personally complain is because your articles are great and with just a few tweaks I think they could be brilliant--so, uh, constructive criticism--

- Since you did not include the first year of Xbox 360 sales, your 360 regression is apt to be off in either direction versus the other two. If your intention was not to show a lifelong regression of the three consoles, then you're poisoning Wii and PS3 data by including launch months. I would either start every console from a fixed and reasonable starting point (I recommend January 2007 or 12 months before the current month)--in other words, do a regression of recent data--or include 360's first year--in other words, do a regression of all data.

- In addition, it's generally common in most trending to do some form of exponential smoothing. In this case, the month to month variance is severe enough even excluding November and December that you'll want a fairly weak exponential smoothing. Perhaps a parameter of 0.2*recent_month + 0.8*historical_regression might be appropriate here?

I'm not sure if you've got a strong background in statistics or if you're just making use of the tools there, so you might already know this, but I figure the heads up couldn't hurt. Again, great job as always and I hope you're able to leverage this series of articles into more work in the field in the future :D
 
N

nli10

Member
A whole month??

In the UK Mario Kart Wii beat the LTD totals of every individual N64 and GameCube game in 9 Days :lol
 
N

Neomoto

Member
It's quite refreshing to read an actual good and professional article about sales analysis. Keep up the good work :)
 
P

Parl

Member
Stumpokapow said:
I'm not sure if you've got a strong background in statistics or if you're just making use of the tools there, so you might already know this, but I figure the heads up couldn't hurt. Again, great job as always and I hope you're able to leverage this series of articles into more work in the field in the future :D
Click to expand...
I get the same thing too. I remember finding something in a previous month's article grossly misleading, whether intentional or not. I later figured it wasn't intentional and the intention was to say something positive about each system, but at the end of the day, if there's nothing positive to be said, or if this positive thing is a incorrect, or misleading, then there should be nothing nothing positive mentioned about said system, IMHO.

Neomoto said:
It's quite refreshing to read an actual good and professional article about sales analysis. Keep up the good work :)
Click to expand...
Indeed, the writing is up to scratch, and if the analysis was to the level of some of that here on GAF, then it'd be fantastic to have that combo.
 
P

Parl

Member
Mithos Yggdrasill said:
What? Where comes this news from?
Click to expand...
I remember Chart Track saying it was the 4th biggest 1st week for a title ever, and also, in the second week, it had only dropped by 22%, which is incredible, especially for a game which sold so much in the first week, which is normally a sign of a front-loaded title.
 
N

Neomoto

Member
Parl said:
I remember Chart Track saying it was the 4th biggest 1st week for a title ever, and also, in the second week, it had only dropped by 22%, which is incredible, especially for a game which sold so much in the first week, which is normally a sign of a front-loaded title.
Click to expand...
3rd biggest week actually, but yeah, Mario Kart Wii's performance (and that of Wii in general) is nothing short of amazing in the UK.
 
N

Neomoto

Member
SovanJedi said:
You're both unright, it was the 8th biggest launch week for a title ever in the UK. Not that it's unimpressive for it, mind you.

I'd like to know about the source on that "sold more than any N64 or Gamecube game in the UK" stuff too.
Click to expand...
Ah shit, I was confused with Brawl in the US heh. Still great though, and I don't know about the source for that clain but in this or last week thread someone said that Mario Kart Wii already hit platimum label or something, which no gamecube game has achieved.
 
N

nli10

Member
SovanJedi said:
You're both unright, it was the 8th biggest launch week for a title ever in the UK. Not that it's unimpressive for it, mind you.

I'd like to know about the source on that "sold more than any N64 or Gamecube game in the UK" stuff too.
Click to expand...

Estimates put the sales for MK:Wii at ELSPA Platinum status (300k) after 9 days. No N64 or GC games made ELSPA platinum status so therefore MK:Wii has outsold every individual N64 and GC title in 9 days.

Until the month ends and ELSPA updates the award rankings on their site it is by no means official and purely speculation based on the 8th biggest first week (Circa 180k) and a 22% reduction of this (140k).

UKers will know that the N64 & GC sold like shit here so it's not actually that impressive, but it doesn't half sound good!

Neomoto said:
Ah shit, I was confused with Brawl in the US heh. Still great though, and I don't know about the source for that clain but in this or last week thread someone said that Mario Kart Wii already hit platimum label or something, which no gamecube game has achieved.
Click to expand...

That was me. :D
 
S

Sho_Nuff82

Member
Cheez-It said:
WRT the GTA IV pushing console sales above the linear analysis...

Which do you think will sell more consoles: Wii Fit, or GTA IV?

Personally, I see the sorts of people interested in GTA IV as having a PS3 or 360 already. Sure, there will be people coming late to the game who haven't invested yet, but my guess is that they won't be a massive enough surge to push much above that line... And I would imagine that the Wii line, if supply continues, will continue at a higher rate than the linear indication... particularly when you consider Wii Fit. Wii Fit seems like the sort of game that will get all sorts of random people to want to pick up a Wii.
Click to expand...

Nintendo is going to sell every console they ship regardless of when Wii Fit comes out.

GTA will push consoles to the same extent Halo 3 did (several hundred thousand at the very least) - it remains to be seen what the distribution will be.
 
C

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
nli10 said:
A whole month??

In the UK Mario Kart Wii beat the LTD totals of every individual N64 and GameCube game in 9 Days :lol
Click to expand...

wtf - even games like OoT or Mario 64 ? WTF :O
 
N

nli10

Member
cw_sasuke said:
wtf - even games like OoT or Mario 64 ? WTF :O
Click to expand...

Fraid so

Fantastic Thread on UK Sales Awards from earlier this month.

LINK to the ENTIRE LIST so you can fact check for yourself.

Even if MK:Wii was to have sold under 300k it would only have 2 GC games (SMS & MK: DD) in the 200k-300k category to beat so is likely to have outsold everything on N64 and GC eitherway.

Having a quick look for the N64 it seems the site only tracks the later titles so only Perfect Dark and Pokemon Stadium have got Silver sales awards - it's pretty darn likely that other games old sold these so maybe the pre Sales Awards games on the N64 did sell over 300k, but thats a conversation for the Euro sales threads not here.


And appologies to the OP for the mini derailment, I promise to read the article when not at work (MVC just distracts me). And now my query has finished sticking and 'not responding' I can go back to doing analysis instead of reading about it. :D
 
B

brain_stew

Member
Danthrax said:
Holy freaking crap.
Click to expand...

It also outsold the opening weeks of every other Wii Mario game (yes that includes, Mario and Sonic, Mario Galaxy, Super Paper Mario, Mario Party and Mario Strikers) COMBINED. Stupidly ridiculous success and it was supply constrained in many places.
 
T

Taurus

Member
brain_stew said:
It also outsold the opening weeks of every other Wii Mario game (yes that includes, Mario and Sonic, Mario Galaxy, Super Paper Mario, Mario Party and Mario Strikers) COMBINED. Stupidly ridiculous success and it was supply constrained in many places.
Click to expand...
This is fucking ridiculous. :lol
 
J

Jammy

Banned
brain_stew said:
It also outsold the opening weeks of every other Wii Mario game (yes that includes, Mario and Sonic, Mario Galaxy, Super Paper Mario, Mario Party and Mario Strikers) COMBINED. Stupidly ridiculous success and it was supply constrained in many places.
Click to expand...

This is the truth. Charttrack noted that when Mario Kart Wii debuted. Amazing, isn't it? Every Mario Wii game combined couldn't do better than Mario Kart Wii.

It's not as if those games sold poorly either, Mario Kart Wii just had monstrous first week (and second week) sales.
 
D

dammitmattt

Banned
Cheez-It said:
WRT the GTA IV pushing console sales above the linear analysis...

Which do you think will sell more consoles: Wii Fit, or GTA IV?

Personally, I see the sorts of people interested in GTA IV as having a PS3 or 360 already. Sure, there will be people coming late to the game who haven't invested yet, but my guess is that they won't be a massive enough surge to push much above that line... And I would imagine that the Wii line, if supply continues, will continue at a higher rate than the linear indication... particularly when you consider Wii Fit. Wii Fit seems like the sort of game that will get all sorts of random people to want to pick up a Wii.
Click to expand...

While that might be true for more hardcore games, you are seriously underestimating GTA's appeal to the casual gamer. It's one of those rare titles like Madden that equally appeals to both the casual and hardcore markets.

I think it's a safe assumption to make that millions of people interested in GTA still haven't stepped up to the next-gen table.
 
C

Cheez-It

Member
dammitmattt said:
While that might be true for more hardcore games, you are seriously underestimating GTA's appeal to the casual gamer. It's one of those rare titles like Madden that equally appeals to both the casual and hardcore markets.
Click to expand...

Good point, I didn't really consider this. I remember my non-gaming roommate being a huge fan back in college. He was particularly interested in killing every pedestrian in sight after a breakup.

I think it's a safe assumption to make that millions of people interested in GTA still haven't stepped up to the next-gen table.
Click to expand...

On the other hand, while I'm sure we will see something of a spike immediately, I would imagine many folks like this will be more of the sort who trickle in, providing a steady stream of consoles as these people realize GTA IV is out, or decide that they want it then (these people aren't as finicky about when they play a game :p).

Regardless, the numbers should be quite interesting.
 
A

andthebeatgoeson

Junior Member
John_Doe said:
just multiplying last years numbers by two? wow! :lol
Click to expand...

And some could argue that the Wii may best it before the end of the summer or July even. That would throw that chart out the window. Either way, good article, as always JVM.
 
T

ThirdEye

Member
DeaconKnowledge said:
march-2008-npd-next-gen_html_7e2a8c9f.gif


This image interests me. Probably the most realistic trending chart I've read from a gaming website.
Click to expand...
No way 360 can continue to ride on the Halo 3 momentum of the last year.
 
L

liuelson

Member
Stumpokapow said:
In addition, it's generally common in most trending to do some form of exponential smoothing. In this case, the month to month variance is severe enough even excluding November and December that you'll want a fairly weak exponential smoothing. Perhaps a parameter of 0.2*recent_month + 0.8*historical_regression might be appropriate here?
Click to expand...

I've asked this in an MC thread before, but I'm still curious as to why a linear model in the first place. A linear cumulative adoption curve implies that the market is completely flat - early adopters = middle adopters = late adopters. Normally, one assumes a bell-shaped distribution of adopters, and that should result in an S-shaped saturation curve.

Still, the actual graphs of cumulative adoption of previous consoles seem to be linear. I wonder if changes in price are changing the relevant market, so what we're seeing is the aggregation of multiple S-shaped adoption curves? As soon as the "market is saturated" at one price point and sales slow down, manufacturers drop the price to kick-start sales up a new S-shaped curve...?

If so, I think we somehow need to deal with price in how we model cumulative adoption...
 
L

LAMBO

Member
Well i know 2 people that haven't played videogames in 2-3 years, and they are both going to get a PS3 when GTA comes out.

Most people I know don't even know it's comming.
 
D

donny2112

Member
liuelson said:
I wonder if changes in price are changing the relevant market, so what we're seeing is the aggregation of multiple S-shaped adoption curves? As soon as the "market is saturated" at one price point and sales slow down, manufacturers drop the price to kick-start sales up a new S-shaped curve...?
Click to expand...

I believe it is an aggregation of multiple bell curves, but for games as well as price points. You also have seasonal buying to factor in, as well. In short, it isn't one factor that drives purchasing trends but many. Going back to the Media-Create threads, you can see this clearly with Gunda/Golf/Yakuza/Smash/etc. bumps in addition to fluctuations with price. Monthly charts smear the game effects that are clearly seen in weekly charts. Cumulative charts also hide all but the most severe bumps.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Coming to Xbox Game Pass in February: Bluey: The Videogame, Tales of Arise, Warhammer 40,000: Boltgun, and More
Hype Platform 2
69
4K
Magic Carpet replied
Discord is laying off 17% of employees | In an internal memo, CEO Jason Citron said the company grew headcount too quickly over the past few years
News
1
668
Cyberpunkd replied
Full Q&A English Summary of Nintendo's Financial Results Briefing for Fiscal Year Ended March 2024
Business
0
317
Thick Thighs Save Lives replied
Peter Moore: The Final Console Generation, MS going Third Party, and MS debated putting the original Halo on PlayStation
2 3
140
11K
Astray replied
"Failed to meet expectations." - The new SquareEnix slogan. Time to admit they're in trouble? But is acquisition the answer?
2 3 4
173
10K
Satansblade replied
Top Bottom