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New Consoles Sales predictions (PS4/XBox1/WiiU)
- Thread starter Goodlife
- Start date
Metallix87
Member
I'd say it's too soon to say anything, including that PS4 wins hands down. Once we have some post-Christmas data, we'll be able to properly estimate about how much each system will do. Wii U, unfortunately, has been out long enough for us to safely say, with it's current trajectory, it'll be lucky to hit Gamecube numbers.
No coconut for you
But "properly estimating" isn't fun.
edit: oh shit, you said 5 years:
PS4: 80M
X1: 60M
WiiU: 20M
Monty Mole
Member
Next Christmas will be the real test. The PS4/XB1 won't be stock-starved and they'll have had a year to carve their niche.
Your WiiU prediction is the only one with a realistic chance if you want to revisit this thread in 5 years.
Maybe, just don't see this gen being huge once the hype has died down.
And put your money where you mouth is?
Neither PS4 nor Xbone will come close to your numbers within 5 years but I will gladly eat crow
More realistic would probably be PS4 70'ish and XBone 50'ish. (Keep in mind, 5 year view)
Edit: And that might be still to optimistic for the Xbone, but it's so hard to say without knowing whether there's gonna be a kinectless sku and how in general the prices will drop this time around with off the shelve components. If we see a ~250$ PS4 within 2-3 years things can off course explode.
DragonSworne
Banned
PS4: 100m
Xbone: 50m
WiiU: 15m
Xbone: 50m
WiiU: 15m
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
Not sure for PS4 or Wii U, but I'll make a (kind of) bold prediction for XB One and say that it will either be dicontinued or owned by a different company by E3 2016.
D
Deleted member 125677
Unconfirmed Member
PS4: 100 gazzilions
Xbone: 100 sensillions
Wii U: 100 bombillions
Xbone: 100 sensillions
Wii U: 100 bombillions
I'm going with this.
freezamite
Banned
PS4: 135 millions
Xbox One: 80 millions
Wii U: 15 millions
Back when the WiiU was launched I expected it to have a low start, but that also applied to the so called "next gen" because as it's been made obvious, the graphical leap is not even close to what it had been on the previous generational leaps.
But the market has spoken, PS4 has had the best launch on the entire PS history, XBO has had the best launch on the entire Xbox history, and WiiU has had the WORST launch on the entire Nintendo history.
The market doesn't want a console that at this point I even doubt will be able to achieve graphics comparable to those seen on the best PS3/Xbox 360 games, and not because the console won't be able to do that but because no one gives a shit about it, except for Nintendo and their seconds.
Even at 300, you're buying a hardware between 10 and 20 times less powerful than what the competence is offering, and this time the gamepad won't compensate that (even when I truly think that). Even if with a more modern feature set, third partys have completely abandoned the ship.
Ubisoft is the only one that has given it an opportunity with games like AC4 that are still a decent port, but seeing how even the PS4 and XBO versions of the game are selling an order of magnitude more than the WiiU version this will be the last year we see any third party title released for the system.
I'm worried because Nintendo represents the gaming philosophies I think would be the best for the industry instead of pursuing the casual "I want graphics explosions and bloooooddddd" crowd, but as it's been demonstrated, this is what the market wants and you won't be able to compete in those terms with 1/10 their graphical output.
Xbox One: 80 millions
Wii U: 15 millions
Back when the WiiU was launched I expected it to have a low start, but that also applied to the so called "next gen" because as it's been made obvious, the graphical leap is not even close to what it had been on the previous generational leaps.
But the market has spoken, PS4 has had the best launch on the entire PS history, XBO has had the best launch on the entire Xbox history, and WiiU has had the WORST launch on the entire Nintendo history.
The market doesn't want a console that at this point I even doubt will be able to achieve graphics comparable to those seen on the best PS3/Xbox 360 games, and not because the console won't be able to do that but because no one gives a shit about it, except for Nintendo and their seconds.
Even at 300, you're buying a hardware between 10 and 20 times less powerful than what the competence is offering, and this time the gamepad won't compensate that (even when I truly think that). Even if with a more modern feature set, third partys have completely abandoned the ship.
Ubisoft is the only one that has given it an opportunity with games like AC4 that are still a decent port, but seeing how even the PS4 and XBO versions of the game are selling an order of magnitude more than the WiiU version this will be the last year we see any third party title released for the system.
I'm worried because Nintendo represents the gaming philosophies I think would be the best for the industry instead of pursuing the casual "I want graphics explosions and bloooooddddd" crowd, but as it's been demonstrated, this is what the market wants and you won't be able to compete in those terms with 1/10 their graphical output.
Prince Vultan
Banned
5 years? I'm gonna go:
PS4: 50-60m
Wii U: 15-20
Xbone: 40-50m
Don't think any of them will match even PS3/360 numbers this past gen. Would be pleasantly surprised if wrong though.
PS4: 50-60m
Wii U: 15-20
Xbone: 40-50m
Don't think any of them will match even PS3/360 numbers this past gen. Would be pleasantly surprised if wrong though.
Napalm_Frank
Member
Wii U 20 mil
Bone 60 mil
PS4 100 mil
Whole gen
5 years? Minus ssome from that :3
Bone 60 mil
PS4 100 mil
Whole gen
5 years? Minus ssome from that :3
-Plasma Reus-
Service guarantees member status
PS4 110 million
X1 60 million
Wii U 17 million
Life cycle figures.
X1 60 million
Wii U 17 million
Life cycle figures.
1st Course
Member
PS4 - 80m
Xbone - 50m
Wii U - 15m
Xbone - 50m
Wii U - 15m
Lovely Salsa
Banned
Yea, Wii u would be lucky to hit 20 million sold
PS4: 85 mil
Xbox 1: 40 mil
Wii U: 17 mil
PS4: 85 mil
Xbox 1: 40 mil
Wii U: 17 mil
Rebel Leader
THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
Dare 2 Dream
PS4: 100M
Hits a perfect note in every region. Great price point. Powerful enough to remain relevant for 5-6 years.
XB1: 40M
Will play reasonably well in US and UK. High price point. Limited hardware will feel dated in the short term and antiquated in 2-3 years. People like remotes and don't like repeating themselves.
WiiU: 20M
People like Nintendo games to enough to sell about what the Gamecube did. Will be a second console for many. Underpowered. Controller is an unmitigated disaster.
Hits a perfect note in every region. Great price point. Powerful enough to remain relevant for 5-6 years.
XB1: 40M
Will play reasonably well in US and UK. High price point. Limited hardware will feel dated in the short term and antiquated in 2-3 years. People like remotes and don't like repeating themselves.
WiiU: 20M
People like Nintendo games to enough to sell about what the Gamecube did. Will be a second console for many. Underpowered. Controller is an unmitigated disaster.
krimsoncharge
Member
PS 4 - 85 mill
Xbox one - 50 mill
wii u - 25 mill
Xbox one - 50 mill
wii u - 25 mill
Jaded Alyx
Member
I find it hard to believe that the PS4 will either come close to or outsell the PS2..........after 5 years.
Nikodemos
Member
Sounds about right.
I think the OP didn't mean to say how much will they have sold in five years, but how I much will they eventually sell and people may come back in five years to see who's probably going to be right and who was way wrong. I don't expect my numbers to be there in five years, but I expect them by the time their successors hit the market (so, pretty much, like looking at PS3/360/Wii numbers right now).
PS4: 100m
XBox One: 90m
Wii U: 10-15m
Don't see Nintendo keeping the Wii U around very long unless sales massively improve - which they almost certainly won't without an unexpected killer app, and Nintendo aren't good at surprises anymore - so I'd be surprised if it did over 10m to be honest. 15m is possible, but I definitely wouldn't go any higher at this point. Also worth noting that the Wii U has been tracking sub-Dreamcast numbers at this point.
As for the higher estimates for X1 and PS4, this generation is almost certain to last a very long time for Sony and Microsoft, so I'd bank on them beating this generation's numbers by sheer persistence.
XBox One: 90m
Wii U: 10-15m
Don't see Nintendo keeping the Wii U around very long unless sales massively improve - which they almost certainly won't without an unexpected killer app, and Nintendo aren't good at surprises anymore - so I'd be surprised if it did over 10m to be honest. 15m is possible, but I definitely wouldn't go any higher at this point. Also worth noting that the Wii U has been tracking sub-Dreamcast numbers at this point.
As for the higher estimates for X1 and PS4, this generation is almost certain to last a very long time for Sony and Microsoft, so I'd bank on them beating this generation's numbers by sheer persistence.
Stealthcobra
Member
I think the wii u demise is very premature. Lets see how much of a bump super mario gives it. there are several games i'm looking forward to on wii u....especially the Xenoblade sequel due out next year.
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