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Media Create Sales: Week 7, 2014 (Feb 10 - Feb 16)

P

pieatorium

Member
SwiftDeath said:
True I simply meant that you were including PS4 in that and WW it's had the best hardware launch ever. Pretty sure in the history of VG consoles/ handhelds. It's still tracking ahead of the PS2 and Wii WW isn't it?
Click to expand...

i believe so, xb1in the same region as wii still too although it looks to be not staying in that company for long

Melkr_ said:
PS4 won't have any significant presence until maybe FFXV. We will have very interesting weeks of Wii U vs PS4 ahead of us.
Click to expand...

lets not go crazy here, mario kart might be when that happnes but before then dnt get your hopes up
 
T

test_account

XP-39C²
shinra-bansho said:
350k doesn't seem like excessively bullish or bearish supply. But it's outside the holiday period, in a softer console market, few big titles that aren't available elsewhere and with the Japanese consumer caring less about the technical upgrade.

I'd guess they end up with like a 60% sell-through or so - around the 200k mark.

I think they'll take a couple weeks to sell that through and have maybe an 150k shipment worth of resupply in the fiscal year as the N-B CEO suggested.
Click to expand...
I was thinking something the same (also a few days ago, before any indications/line pictures from the PS4 launch). I think the PS4 will open somewhere around 150k-200k.
 
D

DarkMehm

Member
Chris1964 said:
It looks so far PS4 will land many back to Japanese reality much sooner than expected. Lack of hype at launch means only faster collapse next week(s).

We'll have to wait for PS4 opening sales and DK amazing legs next days.
Click to expand...

Genuine question: Is the "I told you so"-stance more important than the state of the japanese industry? As a sales ager I would expect that you care more for the sales instead of who was right or wrong.

I mean, I also expected that the PS4 will have a silent launch and a really bad first year or two or maybe even stay bad forever. But I'm not happy that it is happening as the japanese industry is getting more and more irrelevant. I certainly won't be happy that next year in this time the market leader will have sales of like 20k and the software sales will be so bad that the 10th will have sales of like 7k and the 30th like 2k or so. Will there even be a point in being right or wrong when the industry is dead?

Though you are not alone in this. This thread is in a really weird state as of late. People are laughing that there are 2 people in line for the PS4. Yeah, sure is funny. We can laugh all together when the industry is close to death in a few years.
 
I

inopedes

Banned
There are so many soothsayers desperate to be proved right that whatever happens in the industry there will be a group 'happy' with proceedings.
 
C

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
I said this before but I couldn't care less if PS4, Wii U, 3DS, Vita or anything else bombs or sells great. Numbers is the only thing I care in these threads, being good or bad.

If someone wants to cry or laugh with his favorite or hated console performance and feels insulted every time me or anyone else say something 'bad' it's his problem. Personally I have more important things to worry about.
 
R

RalchAC

Member
NateDrake said:
You expect PS4 sales to be decent until late May with a software lineup that is basically void of anything worthwhile to the Japanese market?
Click to expand...

There is MGS in March (cross-gen, but it's something), like 20 days after the PS4 launch in Japan. That could work as a stopgap for two weeks. If Sony doesn't announce something for May / June summer is gonna be a disaster. Even if FFXIV releases in April, it is a free upgrade from the PS3 version and the beta is available day one...

They need to start announcing something. Some last gen ports, some cross-gen titles and 1 or 2 exclusives, even if they aren't big budget (like a Hot Shots Golf).
 
A

Atram

Member
Chris1964 said:
I said this before but I couldn't care less if PS4, Wii U, 3DS, Vita or anything else bombs or sells great. Numbers is the only thing I care in these threads, being good or bad.

If someone wants to cry or laugh with his favorite or hated console performance and feels insulted every time me or anyone else say something bad it's his problem. Personally I have more important things to worry about.
Click to expand...

At first it seems we wil face a big decline in Soft- and Hardware for this Year in Japan. Tough times are coming.
 
1

1st Course

Member
Thx for the pics and impressions Hiska.

Any other JapanGaffers here? Would appreciate it if you guys/girls can share your impressions about the launch.
 
P

Pistolero

Member
The japanese industry has become so irrelevant, it's both comical and tragic. Oh how the mighty has fallen! Prepare to be bombarded with shovelware, mobile apps and weirdo stuff,,,consoles are deinitely dead over there... :(
 
O

Orgen

Member
Chris1964 said:
It looks so far PS4 will land many back to Japanese reality much sooner than expected. Lack of hype at launch means only faster collapse next week(s).

We'll have to wait for PS4 opening sales and DK amazing legs next days.
Click to expand...

Donkey Kong second week > Donkey Kong First week.

Believe
 
P

Psycho_Mantis

Banned
Pistolero said:
The japanese industry has become so irrelevant, it's both comical and tragic. Oh how the mighty has fallen! Prepare to be bombarded with shovelware, mobile apps and weirdo stuff,,,consoles are deinitely dead over there... :(
Click to expand...

Its really sad to see how their output has dwindled so much :(

PS4 doesn't look like its doing particularly good.
 
D

Darius

Banned
DarkMehm said:
Genuine question: Is the "I told you so"-stance more important than the state of the japanese industry? As a sales ager I would expect that you care more for the sales instead of who was right or wrong.

I mean, I also expected that the PS4 will have a silent launch and a really bad first year or two or maybe even stay bad forever. But I'm not happy that it is happening as the japanese industry is getting more and more irrelevant. I certainly won't be happy that next year in this time the market leader will have sales of like 20k and the software sales will be so bad that the 10th will have sales of like 7k and the 30th like 2k or so. Will there even be a point in being right or wrong when the industry is dead?

Though you are not alone in this. This thread is in a really weird state as of late. People are laughing that there are 2 people in line for the PS4. Yeah, sure is funny. We can laugh all together when the industry is close to death in a few years.
Click to expand...

This is really so transparent, obviously you didn´t bother making a such a comment when WiiU tanked and certain people beeing happy about it. "the state of the japanese industry"...
 
D

DarkMehm

Member
Darius said:
This is really so transparent, obviously you didn´t bother making a such a comment when WiiU tanked and certain people beeing happy about it. "the state of the japanese industry"...
Click to expand...

Obviously? Do you know me?

As a sales ager since 12 years I care about all systems doing well and seeing the industry thrive. You can exchange PS4 in my posting above with any failing system. I didn't comment before, because I wasn't really sure if posters in this thread care more about the numbers or who is right or wrong. In the recent weeks I was sure it was more the latter, which is really sad.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Roboleon said:
lol

Weird. Are we actually looking at a possible scenario where the inital shipment will not sell out?
Click to expand...
If the initial shipment number is 350K then I don't know who is expecting a sell-out... outside of people who don't really follow these threads. There were a lot of outlandish expectations in that general PS4 Japanese launch thread from memory.
 
T

test_account

XP-39C²
Roboleon said:
lol

Weird. Are we actually looking at a possible scenario where the inital shipment will not sell out?
Click to expand...
I think its pretty likely, if the initial shipment is 350k. I dont think its that unusual though, i cant remember hearing that the 3DS, Vita and WiiU were impossible to find after their first two days.
 
C

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Darius said:
This is really so transparent, obviously you didn´t bother making a such a comment when WiiU tanked and certain people beeing happy about it. "the state of the japanese industry"...
Click to expand...

If you watch carefully there are many in these threads coming to complain for "the state of the japanese industry" if things don't go as expected for specific cosoles/companies.
 
C

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
LTD sales targets from publishers

[3DS] Fossil Fighters: Infinite Gear <RPG> (Nintendo) (¥4.800) - 200K (more like sinobi expectations for this)
[3DS] Harvest Moon: Linking The New World <SLG> (Marvelous AQL) (¥5.040) - 150K
[PS3] Kagero: Darkside Princess # <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) (¥7.140) - 80K
[PS3] Kagero: Darkside Princess [Premium Box] <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) (¥10.290) - 10K
[PSV] Kagero: Darkside Princess # <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) (¥6.090) - 40K
[PSV] Kagero: Darkside Princess [Premium Box] <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) (¥9.240) - 5K
[PSV] Valhalla Knights 3: Gold <RPG> (Marvelous AQL) (¥5.229) - 50K
 
B

Busaiku

Member
Why does Marvelous have such low expectations for Harvest Moon?
A New Beginning probably did over 250k for them.
Even Rune Factory 4 did over 150k.
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Busaiku said:
Why does Marvelous have such low expectations for Harvest Moon?
A New Beginning probably did over 250k for them.
Even Rune Factory 4 did over 150k.
Click to expand...
Did people dislike A New Beginning or perhaps does Harvest Moon historically show a major drop after the first game on each platform?
 
B

Busaiku

Member
At least in the US, A New Beginning is very highly regarded (one of, if not the best).
Sales were steady on DS (with Island of Happiness being an outlier), and were actually on the rise, but then A New Beginning (on 3DS) did much better (lower than Island of Happiness, but higher than everything else).

Comgnet also has much higher preorders for it than A New Beginning.

Just seems so weird for such a low LTD expectation.
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Busaiku said:
At least in the US, A New Beginning is very highly regarded (one of, if not the best).
Sales were steady on DS (with Island of Happiness being an outlier), and were actually on the rise, but then A New Beginning (on 3DS) did much better.

Comgnet also has much higher preorders for it than A New Beginning.

Just seems so weird for such a low LTD expectation.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I'm out of obvious ideas then.
 
T

Takao

Banned
Busaiku said:
At least in the US, A New Beginning is very highly regarded (one of, if not the best).
Sales were steady on DS (with Island of Happiness being an outlier), and were actually on the rise, but then A New Beginning (on 3DS) did much better (lower than Island of Happiness, but higher than everything else).

Comgnet also has much higher preorders for it than A New Beginning.

Just seems so weird for such a low LTD expectation.
Click to expand...

it's a conspiracy to show kutaragi that investing in playstation is a bad idea
vh3 gold isn't going to hit 50k
hm:ltnw will do more than 150k
 
A

Apophis2036

Banned
DarkMehm said:
Genuine question: Is the "I told you so"-stance more important than the state of the japanese industry? As a sales ager I would expect that you care more for the sales instead of who was right or wrong.

I mean, I also expected that the PS4 will have a silent launch and a really bad first year or two or maybe even stay bad forever. But I'm not happy that it is happening as the japanese industry is getting more and more irrelevant. I certainly won't be happy that next year in this time the market leader will have sales of like 20k and the software sales will be so bad that the 10th will have sales of like 7k and the 30th like 2k or so. Will there even be a point in being right or wrong when the industry is dead?

Though you are not alone in this. This thread is in a really weird state as of late. People are laughing that there are 2 people in line for the PS4. Yeah, sure is funny. We can laugh all together when the industry is close to death in a few years.
Click to expand...

Yet it was ok to laugh at WiiU sales for the past year... Seems like WiiU sales bad = 'shit console' / PS4 sales bad = 'The market has changed guys'.
 
M

m0t0k1

Member
Busaiku said:
Why does Marvelous have such low expectations for Harvest Moon?
A New Beginning probably did over 250k for them.
Even Rune Factory 4 did over 150k.
Click to expand...

I think it has to do with how many copies going to get made. Making cardridges for small companies is pretty expensive. Because you have to commit on it. So to keep stock low is to save on storage costs and prevents from dropping the price when the channels are flooded. Only risk is when it is going to low you get chances of people skipping the game because they can't find it anywhere. but it is save to anticipate low and produce more in a second round then just flooding the channels and dropping price to reduce the loss on production.
 
Valkyria

Valkyria

Banned
Apophis2036 said:
Yet it was ok to laugh at WiiU sales for the past year... Seems like WiiU sales bad = 'shit console' / PS4 sales bad = 'The market has changed guys'.
Click to expand...

One big difference, Wii U is doing even worse worldwide, and Ps4 after Wii U is the only console which could insufflate some life to the Japan market.
 
M

Magicpaint

Member
Busaiku said:
Why does Marvelous have such low expectations for Harvest Moon?
A New Beginning probably did over 250k for them.
Even Rune Factory 4 did over 150k.
Click to expand...

Maybe they expect A New Beginning to be their Island of Happiness? It makes sense. IoH was the anomaly and did much better than the other DS games. 150k is a realistic target.
 
B

Busaiku

Member
m0t0k1 said:
I think it has to do with how many copies going to get made. Making cardridges for small companies is pretty expensive. Because you have to commit on it. So to keep stock low is to save on storage costs and prevents from dropping the price when the channels are flooded. Only risk is when it is going to low you get chances of people skipping the game because they can't find it anywhere. but it is save to anticipate low and produce more in a second round then just flooding the channels and dropping price to reduce the loss on production.
Click to expand...

Right, that would make sense if it was 1st week, but that's LTD.
 
P

Psycho_Mantis

Banned
Apophis2036 said:
Yet it was ok to laugh at WiiU sales for the past year... Seems like WiiU sales bad = 'shit console' / PS4 sales bad = 'The market has changed guys'.
Click to expand...

Thats because.....

bad xbox sales = expected

bad WiiU sales = doesn't matter, theres always PS4 to save the day and besides thats where most JP third parties will be at.

bad PSV sales = doesn't matter, theres always 3DS to save the day and besides thats where most JP third parties will be at.

bad PS4 sales = well fuck

bad 3DS sales = bow down to our mobile overlords.
 
T

Tripon

Member
Psycho_Mantis said:
Thats because.....

bad xbox sales = expected

bad WiiU sales = doesn't matter, theres always PS4 to save the day and besides thats where most JP third parties will be at.

bad PSV sales = doesn't matter, theres always 3DS to save the day and besides thats where most JP third parties will be at.

bad PS4 sales = well fuck

bad 3DS sales = bow down to our mobile overlords.
Click to expand...

I think it comes down to some people not accepting how changed the console market is for Japan now.

Frankly, only Twitch plays Pokemon can save us now, and even then JP would only want to watch from NicoNico.
 
C

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Famitsu home console openings

1998.11.27 (Sega Dreamcast) - 101.490 (3 days)
2000.03.04 (Sony PlayStation 2) - 630.552 (2 days)
2001.09.14 (Nintendo GameCube) - 133.719 (3 days)
2002.02.22 (Microsoft XBox) - 123.929 (3 days)
2005.12.10 (Microsoft XBox 360) - 62.135 (2 days)
2006.11.11 (Sony PlayStation 3) - 88.443 (2 days)
2006.12.02 (Nintendo Wii) - 371.936 (2 days)
2012.12.08 (Nintendo Wii U) - 308.570 (2 days)
2014.02.22 (Sony PlayStation 4) - xxx.xxx (2 days)
 
D

dolemite

Member
Chris1964 said:
Famitsu home console openings

1998.11.27 (Sega Dreamcast) - 101.490 (3 days)
2000.03.04 (Sony PlayStation 2) - 630.552 (2 days)
2001.09.14 (Nintendo GameCube) - 133.719 (3 days)
2002.02.22 (Microsoft XBox) - 123.929 (3 days)
2005.12.10 (Microsoft XBox 360) - 62.135 (2 days)
2006.11.11 (Sony PlayStation 3) - 88.443 (2 days)
2006.12.02 (Nintendo Wii) - 371.936 (2 days)
2012.12.08 (Nintendo Wii U) - 308.570 (2 days)
2014.02.22 (Sony PlayStation 4) - xxx.xxx (2 days)
Click to expand...

What this list implies is that the first two days don't mean anything, good or bad.
 
M

m0t0k1

Member
Busaiku said:
Right, that would make sense if it was 1st week, but that's LTD.
Click to expand...

Yeah but it is still saver to calcute your big sellers less. So when you make up your balance at the end of the year you can say hey sales have been bad allround but we had some nice sellers up there. and ending higher then predictions is better then lower or just meeting them. togther with low stock and low expectations you can make more money then with high predictions. Also Marvelous isnt the biggest company so they always have to be more reserved then other companies. But i am not sure i am just thinking of solutions why predictions are lower then what they are going to sell.
 
C

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Added prices

Famitsu home console openings

1998.11.27 [Sega Dreamcast] (¥29.800) - 101.490 (3 days)
2000.03.04 [Sony PlayStation 2] (¥39.800) - 630.552 (2 days)
2001.09.14 [Nintendo GameCube] (¥25.000) - 133.719 (3 days)
2002.02.22 [Microsoft XBox] (¥34.800) - 123.929 (3 days)
2005.12.10 [Microsoft XBox 360] (¥29.000 / ¥39.795) - 62.135 (2 days)
2006.11.11 [Sony PlayStation 3] (¥49.980 / ¥59.980) - 88.443 (2 days)
2006.12.02 [Nintendo Wii] (¥25.000) - 371.936 (2 days)
2012.12.08 [Nintendo Wii U] (¥26.250 / ¥31.500) - 308.570 (2 days)
2014.02.22 [Sony PlayStation 4] (¥41.979 / ¥46.179)- xxx.xxx (2 days)

test_account said:
I think its pretty likely, if the initial shipment is 350k. I dont think its that unusual though, i cant remember hearing that the 3DS, Vita and WiiU were impossible to find after their first two days.
Click to expand...

And we saw how things turned out for these systems next weeks.
 
T

test_account

XP-39C²
Tripon said:
Is that what you take away? The low sales of PS3 at launch was a preview on how much it'd struggle for its first half of its life.
Click to expand...
Looking at the Xbox, Vita and WiiU sales tells that the first two days doesnt mean much though, and PS3 rough start didnt mean that it was the situation throughout the whole console generation.
 
G

gigantor21

Member
Chris1964 said:
Added prices

Famitsu home console openings

1998.11.27 [Sega Dreamcast] (¥29.800) - 101.490 (3 days)
2000.03.04 [Sony PlayStation 2] (¥39.800) - 630.552 (2 days)
2001.09.14 [Nintendo GameCube] (¥25.000) - 133.719 (3 days)
2002.02.22 [Microsoft XBox] (¥34.800) - 123.929 (3 days)
2005.12.10 [Microsoft XBox 360] (¥29.000 / ¥39.795) - 62.135 (2 days)
2006.11.11 [Sony PlayStation 3] (¥49.980 / ¥59.980) - 88.443 (2 days)
2006.12.02 [Nintendo Wii] (¥25.000) - 371.936 (2 days)
2012.12.08 [Nintendo Wii U] (¥26.250 / ¥31.500) - 308.570 (2 days)
2014.02.22 [Sony PlayStation 4] (¥41.979 / ¥46.179)- xxx.xxx (2 days)
Click to expand...

So it's launching around the same price as the PS2 did? How does that work out in terms of inflation?
 
S

Sandfox

Member
Busaiku said:
At least in the US, A New Beginning is very highly regarded (one of, if not the best).
Sales were steady on DS (with Island of Happiness being an outlier), and were actually on the rise, but then A New Beginning (on 3DS) did much better (lower than Island of Happiness, but higher than everything else).

Comgnet also has much higher preorders for it than A New Beginning.

Just seems so weird for such a low LTD expectation.
Click to expand...

They also have a somewhat popular actress staring in their ads.
 
S

Sammy Samusu

Member
INB4 Wii U x PS4 launch comparisons.

Wii U first flop week: 21,489

Busaiku said:
Why does Marvelous have such low expectations for Harvest Moon?
A New Beginning probably did over 250k for them.
Even Rune Factory 4 did over 150k.
Click to expand...
Maybe they think HM is becoming front loaded.

ANB had the best opening of the series, and the new Harvest Moon will probably beat that.
 
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