Support NeoGAF

[Riky]

I think the bunker thing could mean PS4 outsold X1 despite Titanfall and price promotions.

 

[DustyVonEric]

As far as NPD sales pr for MS goes, I feel they're in a damned if you do, damned if you don't type scenario.

If MS wins NPD this month even by a wide margin, well they were supposed to win anyways with the price cuts, TF bundling, and I think I remember seeing free Live subscription bundling too.

But if MS "loses", oh boy... Forget Bish's bunker. Time to hit up Noah for room on that Ark.

Spoiler

No sacrilege meant. Just incase

 

[Steverulez]

I have little doubt the XB1 will beat out the PS4 handily in the US for the month of March. It was already pretty close in February, and MS had Titanfall bundles and price cuts all over the place. I would expect MS to post probably better than 200+ more than Sony in NPDs sold for the month just for those reasons.

The surprise for me would be if the PS4 was within 100k of the XB1 sales wise for the month. Maybe I'm giving the Titanfall launch more credit than I should though?

Im under the assumption that they didnt sell as many consoles with the TF bundle as they want considering they were discounted what, a week after release? UK had a similar thing, dunno about other regions but the prices and bundles have been all over the place, not really sure what it means for the NPD outcome.

Sony's announcement is interesting timing but with the price drops, im really not sure what to expect tonight. If your console is selling well though, surely you dont drop the price just after a major title is released for it?

 

[curb]

I have little doubt the XB1 will beat out the PS4 handily in the US for the month of March. It was already pretty close in February, and MS had Titanfall bundles and price cuts all over the place. I would expect MS to post probably better than 200+ more than Sony in NPDs sold for the month just for those reasons.

The surprise for me would be if the PS4 was within 100k of the XB1 sales wise for the month. Maybe I'm giving the Titanfall launch more credit than I should though?

Sony seemed to be really pushing in new stock at the end of the month. While I think the XB1 will definitely outsell PS4, I'm thinking that it won't be by some earth shattering margin. But what do I know?

 

[Lemondish]

Sony posted their number, which is fantastic, ahead of the NPDs. I take that as a confirmation that MS will have beaten them handily and overtaken them in the US.

We'll see what happens later but usually the person who gets out there first to blurt out a number is the one in the weaker position (see MS the past few months after winning America in December).

I think that only happens when they want to reframe the story. This type of announcement from Sony isn't new - its a previously established narrative. Worldwide sales is what Sony always talks about. I'd expect, if they had lost, that any preemptive announcement would include some new narrative to traipse around, much like how Microsoft resorted to the Xbox* family reference, or the 'fastest selling console using questionable math' announcement. Or vague numbers like "thousands of players".

Furthermore, what benefit is it to announce this prior to NPD if they're expecting a loss? The good news would just be drowned out by Microsoft's PR. If they really wanted this to have an impact while expecting a loss, I think it would have been better to announce it after NPD, that way it lessens Microsoft's win and continues the narrative of Sony's success worldwide. If MS wins (which many seem to expect here), that will be the ongoing story, and Sony's 7 million announcement will fall by the wayside.

Sony announced this in the same way they did last month and they won NPD there despite worldwide supply constraints impacted primarily by the production pause and a new territory launch. Its certainly a really small sample, but I don't see any reason to expect this to be any different than last month.

 

[jmdajr]

neat

 

[Aquamarine]

That was really helpful. So in a sense they (Nintendo, MS, Sony) are just given the raw data and they work with it from there. That makes sense. Always thought NPD did that for them.

Already been answered correctly too many times.

A key part of "analysing" is how to leverage and spin the results to show your company in the best possible light.

Any component that NPD does beforehand...is done neutrally and possibly against the desires of PR teams.


For example:

NPD's Top 10 (as presented to us) is calculated without manufacturer bundles.

But clearly, when Microsoft brags about Titanfall sales in a few hours, they'll incorporate manufacturer bundles as "software sold."

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Money is... unfortunately, a simple but effective short-term strategy.

Undercutting the competition, creating value through additions of 'extras', etc have quantifiable improvements to a product's sales performance in the short-term.

If the price normalises after a period of being lower all they will have succeeded in doing is bringing forward a few sales. Only a permanent price cut to $399 will have a lasting effect. Putting in all of this effort to "win" a single sales month is going to create problems down the line as they have altered the value perception by allowing the unit to be sold for $449 including a game. Once the TF bundles run dry and the green box editions come back and are selling for $499, it will again be seen as overpriced, however, the perception will be magnified because stores seemed happy to sell it for $449 including a game just a month back.

That's also without going into sustainability issues. Xbox as a division is supposed to be standing on its own two feet, subsidising a loss making unit is not the best way to ensure the new management retain the confidence of the board and investors.

As always, I believe far too much emphasis is put on this phoney sales war by the hardcore fans. I do not believe that Shu or Spencer stay up late and concoct plans to "win" an NPD sales month. This idea that there are winners and losers from the NPD sales seems ridiculous.

 

[Lemondish]

It's a common strategy for a company to try to get ahead of potential bad news with good news of their own.

And be drowned out by the competitor's narrative? Seems ineffective. Sony also benefits by knowing exactly when this information will be released, so they can plan accordingly. I imagine the inclination to get out ahead of bad news occurs in an environment where time and speed is of importance.

Why not announce after NPD? Steal a little bit of Microsoft's wind, so to speak.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

And be drowned out by the competitor's narrative? Seems ineffective. Sony also benefits by knowing exactly when this information will be released, so they can plan accordingly. I imagine the inclination to get out ahead of bad news occurs in an environment where time and speed is of importance.

Why not announce after NPD? Steal a little bit of Microsoft's wind, so to speak.

Because then you're in the shadow of MS.

Just because it doesn't make sense to you doesn't mean it isn't an effective marketing strategy.

 

[FiggyCal]

If the price normalises after a period of being lower all they will have succeeded in doing is bringing forward a few sales. Only a permanent price cut to $399 will have a lasting effect. Putting in all of this effort to "win" a single sales month is going to create problems down the line as they have altered the value perception by allowing the unit to be sold for $449 including a game. Once the TF bundles run dry and the green box editions come back and are selling for $499, it will again be seen as overpriced, however, the perception will be magnified because stores seemed happy to sell it for $449 including a game just a month back.

That's also without going into sustainability issues. Xbox as a division is supposed to be standing on its own two feet, subsidising a loss making unit is not the best way to ensure the new management retain the confidence of the board and investors.

As always, I believe far too much emphasis is put on this phoney sales war by the hardcore fans. I do not believe that Shu or Spencer stay up late and concoct plans to "win" an NPD sales month. This idea that there are winners and losers from the NPD sales seems ridiculous.

Why would execs spend any amount of time figuring out ways to make their product sell better in the biggest market for their products? That's just silly. Especially Phil Spencer right, since the Xbox One is doing so incredibly well worldwide.

 

[FiggyCal]

I forgot about that, different rules elsewhere.

Maybe this whole bunker thing is just that Infamous outsold Titanfall (excluding bundles/codes).

Or it could mean absolutely nothing and Bish was trolling.

 

[Interfectum]

And be drowned out by the competitor's narrative? Seems ineffective. Sony also benefits by knowing exactly when this information will be released, so they can plan accordingly. I imagine the inclination to get out ahead of bad news occurs in an environment where time and speed is of importance.

Why not announce after NPD? Steal a little bit of Microsoft's wind, so to speak.

Because if MS gets their message out first the mainstream articles are already written at that point. Sony releasing this info after the fact won't net near as many headlines as the mainstream will only dedicate so much to the 'console wars.'

So by getting out ahead of this every article that props up MS as "winning in the U.S." will also include Sony's 7 million figure inside the article.

It's a way for Sony to control the message and soften the blow.

 

[FranXico]

Maybe this whole bunker thing is just that Infamous outsold Titanfall (excluding bundles/codes).

I can't find Bishop's post about the bunker, could you please link?

Personally, I doubt that inFamous:SS sold nearly as much as TF. It barely had any advertising, just word of mouth, versus the massive marketing hyperbole in place to push TF.

 

[Cornbread78]

I think that only happens when they want to reframe the story. This type of announcement from Sony isn't new - its a previously established narrative. Worldwide sales is what Sony always talks about. I'd expect, if they had lost, that any preemptive announcement would include some new narrative to traipse around, much like how Microsoft resorted to the Xbox* family reference, or the 'fastest selling console using questionable math' announcement. Or vague numbers like "thousands of players".

Furthermore, what benefit is it to announce this prior to NPD if they're expecting a loss? The good news would just be drowned out by Microsoft's PR. If they really wanted this to have an impact while expecting a loss, I think it would have been better to announce it after NPD, that way it lessens Microsoft's win and continues the narrative of Sony's success worldwide. If MS wins (which many seem to expect here), that will be the ongoing story, and Sony's 7 million announcement will fall by the wayside.

Sony announced this in the same way they did last month and they won NPD there despite worldwide supply constraints impacted primarily by the production pause and a new territory launch. Its certainly a really small sample, but I don't see any reason to expect this to be any different than last month.

Stop making sense... It just doesn't make any sense in times like these...

I can't find Bishop's post about the bunker, could you please link?

Personally, I doubt that inFamous:SS sold nearly as much as TF. It barely had any advertising, just word of mouth, versus the massive marketing hyperbole in place to push TF.

I reposted it last page (19) with the link to the single post for reference...

 

[gamechanger87]

And be drowned out by the competitor's narrative? Seems ineffective. Sony also benefits by knowing exactly when this information will be released, so they can plan accordingly. I imagine the inclination to get out ahead of bad news occurs in an environment where time and speed is of importance.

Why not announce after NPD? Steal a little bit of Microsoft's wind, so to speak.

They wouldn't want to wait because releasing it early has created a 40 page thread. Do you think that info post NPD would create a thread this long?

 

[I-hate-u]

Do we take this news as early proclamation of victory in NPD, or do we take it as an effort to try to combat MS pr if x1 took March?

 

[robo]

I think its much more likely (and natural) to expect a slight downturn in sales by mid-summer going into early Autumn. I expect such a deficit will be more than made up for during the holidays. That downturn would also create a situation where supply is stockpiled for the holiday season without any alteration in production.

I agree, just fun to speculate on how many they can actually sell BYE.

 

[illmatic22]

I'm guessing Bish took a look at this thread and realized, whatever happens with March NPD, the best thing to do is to head for the bunker.

 

[FullMetaltech]

Do we take this news as early proclamation of victory in NPD, or do we take it as an effort to try to combat MS pr if x1 took March?

I take the latter. But Sony did supply more near the end so anything goes a this point.

 

[Aquamarine]

I'm guessing Bish took a look at this thread and realized, whatever happens with March NPD, the best thing to do is to head for the bunker.

Then again, he works in the industry, and he could have very well heard something or some GAFfer connected to Sony / Microsoft / Nintendo / NPD told him something.

 

[Nightengale]

It's a way for Sony to control the message and soften the blow.

If this was positioned primarily as a blow-softener, that doesn't explain the previous inFamous : SS million sales PR.

Logically, they would had pivoted all 3 news simultaneously ( 1 mil, 7 mil, 20.5 mil ) to create the largest positive news storm prior to NPD.

 

[RetroStu]

Congrats Sony. The better these consoles do the more chance we will have of getting future consoles. Not that i doubt that as Jack Tretton himself said at E3 that consoles we be around for a long time to come and that there will be future Playstations (with Blu-ray drives as well according to him).

 

[Crisco]

Sounds like wishful thinking from XBO fans that it outsold PS4 in March NPD. There is absolutely no evidence of that. It's far more likely that Sony is just running up the score with this announcement rather than preempting bad news. They want to maintain an air of complete dominance, much like they did during the PS2 era. Plus those stacks of XBOs I see at Costco aren't getting any smaller, whereas I've yet to see a PS4 other than mine.

 

[ahuffman]

Do we take this news as early proclamation of victory in NPD, or do we take it as an effort to try to combat MS pr if x1 took March?

It certainly could be either, but it would be rather awesome if Sony was pulling a 1-2 punch with this and NPD.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

Or it could mean absolutely nothing and Bish was trolling.

Sounds like a bannable offence to me.

Mods, you know what your duty is.

 

[anexanhume]

Not near where I live, I've checked..Why is that so difficult to believe? Your gif does nothing to reinforce your point, it just makes you look obnoxious.

And Amazon doesn't have any in stock (excluding their third party sellers).

The part you're quoting isn't talking about what you said (see the post I quoted above it, in reference to Canada stock and pricing of the PS4 console, not camera). The image is the only response I have to what you said.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

Do we take this news as early proclamation of victory in NPD, or do we take it as an effort to try to combat MS pr if x1 took March?

We literally don't know.

It's Schrödinger's NPD.

 

[Paganmoon]

Shesh, Bish posts a picture of his house, and everyone goes nuts.

 

[Xpliskin]

Congrats and getting myself a Evil Within/PS4 pack this August.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Why would execs spend any amount of time figuring out ways to make their product sell better in the biggest market for their products? That's just silly. Especially Phil Spencer right, since the Xbox One is doing so incredibly well worldwide.

But that's exactly my point. Increasing sales of their product is more important than "winning" a sales month. Really what difference does it make to a company like MS or Sony if they sell 20k more units than the other in a given month. What matters is their absolute sales performance, not whether they sold more or less than their competitor. If the Bone sold 500k in March and PS4 sold 510k over the same period does that suddenly mean that Spencer should be fired and that Titanfall is a failure? Of course not. If the opposite is true does that mean Spencer should be promoted to the BoD and MS declare victory in this "war"? Again the answer is no. What matters is that MS will have sold 500k units of their box.

 

[FiggyCal]

Wouldn't surprise me in the least if both were in top five. Especially Titanfall.

Well I meant if one of them or both did horribly outside of bundles. I live in a bubble so I have no idea.

But that's exactly my point. Increasing sales of their product is more important than "winning" a sales month. Really what difference does it make to a company like MS or Sony if they sell 20k more units than the other in a given month. What matters is their absolute sales performance, not whether they sold more or less than their competitor. If the Bone sold 500k in March and PS4 sold 510k over the same period does that suddenly mean that Spencer should be fired and that Titanfall is a failure? Of course not. If the opposite is true does that mean Spencer should be promoted to the BoD and MS declare victory in this "war"? Again the answer is no. What matters is that MS will have sold 500k units of their box.

When you put it that way, I can't disagree.

 

[Rand6]

That's also without going into sustainability issues. Xbox as a division is supposed to be standing on its own two feet, subsidising a loss making unit is not the best way to ensure the new management retain the confidence of the board and investors.

But Microsoft Devices & Consumer division is doing good in term of gross margin and revenue : http://www.microsoft.com/Investor/E...gs/SegmentResults/S2/fy14/q2/Performance.aspx

Maybe it's not good compared to Office or Windows, but it's better than Nintendo or Sony Entertainment division.

 

[vpance]

Because if MS gets their message out first the mainstream articles are already written at that point. Sony releasing this info after the fact won't net near as many headlines as the mainstream will only dedicate so much to the 'console wars.'

So by getting out ahead of this every article that props up MS as "winning in the U.S." will also include Sony's 7 million figure inside the article.

It's a way for Sony to control the message and soften the blow.

The other theory is that they could've been saving the 7 mil announcement in case they came behind in NPDs this month but they weren't sure until yesterday. When they found out they were ahead they released the 7 mil figure so as not to crowd the NPD news of today...

 

[pokeystaples]

Have we heard any sales numbers from Titanfall yet? I know Infamous was pegged by Sony at a million units for March, but Titanfall was on the market for ten more days than Infamous. Microsoft has been pretty quite since January.

Sorry for the late reply. Yeah, not a peep from MS regarding TF as of yet. This evening we should get the 4 million sold across the xbox family stuff.

 

[iJudged]

It's NPD day... I hope Microsoft gives us WW numbers today too.

You wouldn't happen to know at what time (EST) they're going to release the numbers?

 

[KoopaTheCasual]

Shesh, Bish posts a picture of his house, and everyone goes nuts.

 

[Aquamarine]

You wouldn't happen to know at what time (EST) they're going to release the numbers?

It hasn't been said on nearly every page or anything... ;-)

 

[Cornbread78]

You wouldn't happen to know at what time (EST) they're going to release the numbers?

as always, 6-6:30pm EST...


EDIT, beaten by the same ticker for the 20th time (1 per page, lol)

 

[FiggyCal]

Sorry for the late reply. Yeah, not a peep from MS regarding TF as of yet. This evening we should get the 4 million sold across the xbox family stuff.

Doubtful. Maybe 600k. Probably less.

 

[jiggle]

Software sales:
9.7 million on December 31st
13.7 million on March 3nd
20.5 million in April 13th

last month alone sold like a 1/3 or total softwares?
that's more impressive than hardware #

 

[Karsticles]

It hasn't been said on nearly every page or anything... ;-)

Hahaha. You are so patient.

 

[7DollarHagane]

I dunno how legitimate this is

 

[Gorillaz]

It hasn't been said on nearly every page or anything... ;-)

I know your sitting back on those numbers like

 

[Aquamarine]

I dunno how legitimate this is

 

[B.O.O.M]

I dunno how legitimate this is

who is he?

either way that's what I expect anyways. It would be downright embarrassing for MS if they don't win! The question is by how much. If the Bone outsold the PS4 by a HUGE margin, I can see some drama taking place in the NPD thread Should be a fun one either way

 

[iJudged]

It hasn't been said on nearly every page or anything... ;-)

 

[7DollarHagane]

I think he was involved in the pax east royal rumble thats all i know. Not sure why i follow him on twitter.

 

[Deku Tree]

I dunno how legitimate this is

Who is that guy?

 

[Cthulhu_Steev]

But that's exactly my point. Increasing sales of their product is more important than "winning" a sales month. Really what difference does it make to a company like MS or Sony if they sell 20k more units than the other in a given month. What matters is their absolute sales performance, not whether they sold more or less than their competitor. If the Bone sold 500k in March and PS4 sold 510k over the same period does that suddenly mean that Spencer should be fired and that Titanfall is a failure? Of course not. If the opposite is true does that mean Spencer should be promoted to the BoD and MS declare victory in this "war"? Again the answer is no. What matters is that MS will have sold 500k units of their box.

They've had to knock off £80 to get that sales performance though, surely that matters? Especially seeing as last month the big spin was that MS made more money in console sales than Sony