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[LegendofLex]

@dmaul1114: That's the thing, I doubt there'll ever be hardware parity between Nintendo's handhelds and home consoles, which really makes the unified platform approach a bad idea in my opinion. And again, Nintendo handhelds usually build an exclusive, different library from the home consoles and that's what makes them appealing. That's how we got series that thrive on handhelds, like Pokémon.

I'm not totally convinced that this is a problem. With a unified architecture, the different devices basically boil down to different form factors and use patterns. In the current console/handheld paradigm, this has meant totally different libraries for different devices (as the specs are optimized for each use case and don't really intersect in a meaningful way). But in the unified architecture world, there don't have to be separate libraries. Just the right mix of software and hardware options to satisfy these different use patterns.

So if you're looking to take your device on the go, you can load up those short-burst type games. And if you have time to sit at home in your nice home theater, you can load up the grand AAA games. And if you aren't picky, you can ignore that barrier completely.

The main difference is that in the new paradigm, games are not limited to a particular device, form factor, or use pattern. But of course people will still be able to buy the devices and software that meet their needs.

Of course, this is all speculation. But it'd at least be true for VC titles, so I don't think it's terribly far-fetched for most everything else.

 

[RM8]

It's in the rear-view mirror and isn't an ongoing trend? Then what's with the year-over-year declines?

3DS most likely reached market saturation. It still moves software, but hardware slowed down dramatically. It's a post-mobile 4 years old platform after all.

 

[metalslimer]

I honestly don't think the next Nintendo handheld will sell over 50 million units, and a good portion of that will come from Japan. I think what Nintendo should be focusing on is making sure that they don't completely lose that market.

3DS most likely reached market saturation. It still moves software, but hardware slowed down dramatically. It's a post-mobile 4 years old platform after all.

The 3DS is only 3 years old.

 

[RM8]

True

I think what Nintendo should be focusing on is making sure that they don't completely lose that market.

I agree. Weakened as it might be, it's by far their strongest market.

 

[metalslimer]

I also think that any portable device today has to have some kind of app store. Nintendo doesn't have to make a phone, but it should have access to basic app functions, and allow free apps.

 

[IrishNinja]

i don't really fuck with sales-age much, are nintendo's #'s comparable to their pre-DS gangbusters ones? are things kinda leveling back off maybe?

 

[metalslimer]

i don't really fuck with sales-age much, are nintendo's #'s comparable to their pre-DS gangbusters ones? are things kinda leveling back off maybe?

I don't think people realize how amazing the GBA was actually selling. The 3DS is far behind the GBA at this point. Even though the GBA had its life cut short, the 3DS will not reach the GBA's LTD.

 

[zerokoolpsx]

3DS will still continue to sell, but its got stiff competition from smartphones and tablets. The Vita is done. Last dedicated handheld Sony will make. Nintendo is probably wondering on how to expand their marketshare as much as possible since their Wii U is a flop.

 

[Brokun]

I don't think either of them are exiting the fight just yet. Hardware companies tend to have more endurance than people give them credit for.

I think both Sony and Nintendo will double down on dedicated handhelds next gen, but if they want to be competitive with the smartphone market I think they should offer up free SDK's for their next handhelds and pair it with an app store with self publishing but curated by a small team, and just take a cut from every sale like Apple.

 

[RM8]

I don't think people realize how amazing the GBA was actually selling. The 3DS is far behind the GBA at this point. Even though the GBA had its life cut short, the 3DS will not reach the GBA's LTD.

Yeah, I don't think it'll quite reach GBA territory. But IMO having a ~50 million platform which is pretty decent at selling software is a much more desirable situation than going mobile for Nintendo. 3DS had plenty of issues and a rather rocky start, I think if Nintendo learns from this they can make another successful handheld.

Vita, though? I don't doubt it's a great piece of hardware and I understand GAF loves it, but the thing sold 10k last month in the US, and in Japan it's struggling to outsell a fallen 3DS. It's currently sitting at ~9 million units, isn't it? It's honestly pretty terrible and I doubt Sony wants a repeat of that.

 

[IrishNinja]

I don't think people realize how amazing the GBA was actually selling. The 3DS is far behind the GBA at this point. Even though the GBA had its life cut short, the 3DS will not reach the GBA's LTD.

i largely missed that gen for handhelds, but recall the DS as 3rd pillar strategy & i think you're right, i assumed the GBA was just doing okay by then, despite the fantastic library. crazy to hear things were blowing up before the DS expanded the market too....really paints a picture for me where a hybrid might actually be plausible in the future.

 

[moltonasty]

Everyone calm down.
Vita was #1 last week in JP.

Sure, that's nice and all, but it also sold 10k in the US for the entire month of March. So, overall it's still doing pretty dismally, and I don't know if being at #1 for a single week in JP is a big deal at all.

 

[Riposte]

I think Nintendo needs to think about making more F2P (or at least 10>$) titles on their current and next portable title. I don't think parents mind buying hardware (they are ultimately cheaper and less risky than phones and tablets), but a software price comparison probably is really off-putting. Games like Pokemon and Mario Kart should stay full priced, but the initial platform would probably be more enticing if more titles came with it by default. I also think Virtual Console needs to be done way better for pretty much the same reason.

 

[NolbertoS]

I think we'll see more dedicated handhelds. I know for sure I do more of my gaming on the go with portable devices, then a console as much, due to work, family commitments and personal pursuits. I don't think mobile games are going to be the future of portable gaming, short term, as long as the big studio names don't release main stream titles. Long term, the future is still murky, but with more smartphones on the market, and people buying there kids 0.99 cents game, maybe that's all what kids want is an entertaining game for a few hours until they get bored and move on. For adults, obviously they want a more enjoyable experience. I don't think Sony will release a PS Vita successor, as much as Sony is selling the PS4 in droves, I doubt they're making a huge profit yet. If they want to make a PS Vita successor, that will take massive R & D costts and I doubt Sony is willing to drain "good money" to chase "bad" money, speaking in financial terms. Nintendo will keep doing the Nintendo, but I'm sure they'll come up with a hybrid portable machine down the road.

 

[m.i.s.]

The market seems like it's massively in decline

There is simply no doubt about this. The evidence is overwhelming.

I just don't see the dedicated handhelds having a place in the future.

Here's someone else who agrees with you - from almost three years ago.

The end of handheld?

 

[Phediuk]

The way of the dodo, most likely. Sony will not release another one. Nintendo will put out a successor to the 3DS though, and possibly with TV output, unifying their two self-cannibalizing ecosystems.

 

[RM8]

I wonder if Nintendo could successfully resurrect the Game Boy brand, or would the name sound too childish these days? I recall seeing ads targetting adults with the GBA. Going back to Game Boy they could go one-screen again (which I'd hate, personally).

 

[QaaQer]

All I know is that if the next handheld just plays games and people cannot get it for free with a 36 month contract, the decline will continue.

 

[Mpl90]

Considering it should be relevant to this topic, I'm reposting Iwata's quotes from Investor Meeting back in January, since there are good hints at "where do dedicated handhelds go from here" at least for Nintendo and it might be a good thing for people not aware of them.

From the Meeting itself

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/140130/02.html

Let me first talk about redefining the concept of a video game platform.
This medium-term goal is not expected to come to full fruition within the timeframe of this current calendar year. However, I feel that this is going to play an extremely crucial role in deciding whether dedicated video game platforms can adjust to rapid environmental changes in today’s market and can develop as a sound business.

The traditional definition of a video game platform was closely related to some kind of hardware and it would be no exaggeration to say that platforms were equivalent in meaning to physical devices.

That is to say, we only had device-based relationships with consumers in the past. As we were connected with a single consumer differently on different devices, we had some natural problems.

The slide shows all Nintendo platforms that were launched in the past ten years. While we have tried to achieve, among other things, software-driven connectivity between handheld devices and consoles, handheld devices and consoles were in principle separated completely in terms of our ability to connect with our consumers.
In addition, we tried to encourage consumers to upgrade from an existing handheld device to a new handheld device, or from an existing console to a new console, by providing backward compatibility that enabled them to take their software assets from their existing system. However, we became disconnected with our consumers with the launch of each new device as we could only form device-based relationships.

On Wii U, we launched Nintendo Network IDs, which are abbreviated as NNIDs. This is the first step of our efforts to transform customer relationship management from device-based to account-based, namely, consumer-based, through which we aim to establish long-term relationships with individual consumers, unaffected by the lifespans of our systems. Our future platform will connect with our consumers based on accounts, not devices.
As a second step, Nintendo 3DS became compatible with NNIDs in December 2013. Nintendo 3DS was originally designed for a device-based management system, so making it account-compatible at a later time meant that not all of its features were perfect. However, we feel that we have taken a step in the right direction as we now have a uniformly managed system in which we are connected with our consumers on both handheld devices and consoles.
Of course, when we do launch new hardware in the future, rather than re-creating an installed base from scratch as we did in the past, we wish to build on our existing connections with our consumers through NNIDs and continue to maintain them. Another very important point that we need to consider is how we will incorporate smart devices into Nintendo platforms, which were composed solely of Nintendo hardware in the past.
The traditional definition of a video game platform imposed a restriction in which we were unable to connect with consumers unless they purchased a Nintendo system. Given that the competition for consumers’ time and attention has become fierce, I feel that how we will take advantage of smart devices is an extremely important question to answer. However, in order to be absolutely clear, let me emphasize that this does not mean simply supplying Nintendo games on smart devices. Taking advantage of smart devices means connecting with all consumers, including those who do not own Nintendo’s video game systems, through smart devices and communicating the value of our entertainment offerings, thus encouraging more people to participate in Nintendo platforms. I will elaborate on this point later.
As I just illustrated, we will manage our relationships with our consumers through NNIDs in a uniform manner, and connecting with our consumers through NNIDs will precisely be our new definition of a Nintendo platform.
In other words, our platform will not be bound to physical hardware and, instead, will be virtualized.

From the Q&A session

You have explained your concern about users being divided by hardware. Currently, you have both a handheld device business and a home console business. I would like to know whether the organizational changes that took place last year are going to lead to, for example, the integration of handheld devices and home consoles into one system over the medium term, or a focus on cost saving and the improvement of resource efficiency in the medium run. Please also explain if you still have room to reduce research and development expenses.
A 5
Iwata:

Last year Nintendo reorganized its R&D divisions and integrated the handheld device and home console development teams into one division under Mr. Takeda. Previously, our handheld video game devices and home video game consoles had to be developed separately as the technological requirements of each system, whether it was battery-powered or connected to a power supply, differed greatly, leading to completely different architectures and, hence, divergent methods of software development. However, because of vast technological advances, it became possible to achieve a fair degree of architectural integration. We discussed this point, and we ultimately concluded that it was the right time to integrate the two teams.

For example, currently it requires a huge amount of effort to port Wii software to Nintendo 3DS because not only their resolutions but also the methods of software development are entirely different. The same thing happens when we try to port Nintendo 3DS software to Wii U. If the transition of software from platform to platform can be made simpler, this will help solve the problem of game shortages in the launch periods of new platforms. Also, as technological advances took place at such a dramatic rate, and we were forced to choose the best technologies for video games under cost restrictions, each time we developed a new platform, we always ended up developing a system that was completely different from its predecessor. The only exception was when we went from Nintendo GameCube to Wii. Though the controller changed completely, the actual computer and graphics chips were developed very smoothly as they were very similar to those of Nintendo GameCube, but all the other systems required ground-up effort. However, I think that we no longer need this kind of effort under the current circumstances. In this perspective, while we are only going to be able to start this with the next system, it will become important for us to accurately take advantage of what we have done with the Wii U architecture. It of course does not mean that we are going to use exactly the same architecture as Wii U, but we are going to create a system that can absorb the Wii U architecture adequately. When this happens, home consoles and handheld devices will no longer be completely different, and they will become like brothers in a family of systems.

Still, I am not sure if the form factor (the size and configuration of the hardware) will be integrated. In contrast, the number of form factors might increase. Currently, we can only provide two form factors because if we had three or four different architectures, we would face serious shortages of software on every platform. To cite a specific case, Apple is able to release smart devices with various form factors one after another because there is one way of programming adopted by all platforms. Apple has a common platform called iOS. Another example is Android. Though there are various models, Android does not face software shortages because there is one common way of programming on the Android platform that works with various models. The point is, Nintendo platforms should be like those two examples. Whether we will ultimately need just one device will be determined by what consumers demand in the future, and that is not something we know at the moment. However, we are hoping to change and correct the situation in which we develop games for different platforms individually and sometimes disappoint consumers with game shortages as we attempt to move from one platform to another, and we believe that we will be able to deliver tangible results in the future.

I hope this is helpful for the discussion.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Sure, that's nice and all, but it also sold 10k in the US for the entire month of March. So, overall it's still doing pretty dismally, and I don't know if being at #1 for a single week in JP is a big deal at all.

That's what I was saying. The wink didn't convey the sarcasm, ha.

It was a joke because the vita #1 thing has been mentioned wayyy too many times the past few days. It's relevance is being overstated a bit. A lot.

I hope people during Christmas people didn't say "Wii U is selling 40-60k a week in JP guys". That'd be annoying too. Maybe worse.

 

[jcm]

Dedicated handhelds are going to be at best a niche. There's certainly not room for two of them, and I have no doubt sony has realized that and won't make another. I'm not convinced there's even much of a market for one. Maybe nintendo can try to go downmarket and aim at kids, but then they're competing with cheap tablets full of free games. The 3DSs sales have been well below their expectations, and it may have already peaked. That has to be deeply troubling to Nintendo. It will be interesting to see where they head for next gen.

 

[tuffy]

Considering it should be relevant to this topic, I'm reposting Iwata's quotes from Investor Meeting back in January, since there are good hints at "where do dedicated handhelds go from here" at least for Nintendo and it might be a good thing for people not aware of them.

I think it's important to add that while he stresses the importance of "one way of programming adopted by all platforms" (which is a pretty good idea), it doesn't necessarily imply that platforms will share the same hardware architecture or capabilities.

 

[QaaQer]

I think a more relevant question for me would be "where do the $40 non-f2p games go from here?" I'm really hoping a space can be carved out for them somewhere.

 

[Zuhzuhzombie!!]

Sony needs to work on a way to get the VITA mixed in with some phone service.

 

[Mpl90]

I think it's important to add that while he stresses the importance of "one way of programming adopted by all platforms" (which is a pretty good idea), it doesn't necessarily imply that platforms will share the same hardware architecture or capabilities.

Instead, there is a possibility of them sharing basic architecture, but there would be some differencies. Basically: the home device(s) would be (much) more powerful than the portable device(s).
Example: you play a game on your portable device at 480p / 544p / 640p / 720p / whatever the resolution on the device is? At home, you play it at 1080p, 60fps, with better effects and shaders. Scalable games, a bit like on PC.

 

[LAA]

Hmm, I really hope Sony do continue making portables.
I still consider myself using the Vita more than I do the 3DS. In fact it feels similar to the Wii era, where I went back to the Wii occassionally for the exclusives, and mostly stayed on the 360 every other time. Feels like that for vita now, only problem I have with vita is the AAA devs not committing to it, and thats not really Sony's fault. I espicially miss SE's presence on Vita.

All I can hope is for the next portable, they can make it cheaper to create for vita in someway... It seemed a problem for AAA devs committing to it that it cost very similar to what it'd cost to just make a console game. Hope sony can try and "revive" the portable scene in someway anyway.
I find ironic Vita is pretty much aimed espicially at gamers, and thats the place where AAA devs aren't at, obviously aiming at mass market most of the time.

 

[jcm]

Instead, there is a possibility of them sharing basic architecture, but there would be some differencies. Basically: the home device(s) would be (much) more powerful than the portable device(s).
Example: you play a game on your portable device at 480p / 544p / 640p / 720p / whatever the resolution on the device is? At home, you play it at 1080p, 60fps, with better effects and shaders. Scalable games, a bit like on PC.

But that's not what iOS and android do. He specifically calls them out as platforms he wants to emulate. So maybe more like iPhone and iPad? And a game-capable apple tv too.

 

[Mpl90]

I think a more relevant question for me would be "where do the $40 non-f2p games go from here?" I'm really hoping a space can be carved out for them somewhere.

I think game prices need to go down. Max 34.99, but much more flexibility. About that...this is an idea I've tossed around many times over here, and it's related to the whole industry, but let's talk about Nintendo's handheld environment in this case, and I hope to get good answers on this, since I'd really like to know why it hasn't happened yet.
Long short story: digital SKUs of games being priced lower than their physical counterparts + codes for those digital SKUs sold at retail, for those reduced prices. Cards should have much lower inventory costs than physical goods, so retailers wouldn't lose in selling them, right? They could even sell them when the physical version is sold out, meaning not losing a possible sale due to a sell-out. It would be up to the customer: physical version, more expensive, but with collective value and for immediate play, or the code version, cheaper but which needs to download the game. Is it really impossible with the current state of relationships between companies and stores? Could it be fiesable in the next future? If not, why, and how to make it possible.

I know it's a bit off-topic, but it's also in-topic, considering one of the hot topics about handheld decline is how games prices are considered too high, and this would provide a solution, especially considering how we're talking about portables (where buying digital has a good advantage over retail in theory due to the possibility of carrying with you lots of games).

 

[RM8]

One of the things that would piss me off the most would be the next handheld(s) being digital-only. Oh gosh I'd despise it as a collector 3DS sells plenty of physical copies, though. Let's see what happens next.

 

[m.i.s.]

Maybe nintendo can try to go downmarket and aim at kids, but then they're competing with cheap tablets full of free games.

Perhaps an ultra cheap Pokemon branded handheld is one possibility. Featuring the mainline series and all the other side titles and paraphernalia.

--------------

Can Nintendo successfully execute a "one title, two systems" strategy.

Eg NSMB3 [retail or download]

On a future handheld device, displays at a hypothetical 960x540 resolution.

And on a home system, the same title displays at 1920 x 1080.

 

[Pimpbaa]

Hybrid devices. Android based and able to use the google store. But also able to play games specific to the device and have lower level access to the hardware. I could also see nintendo converging their handheld and console business into one. The unit would come with a dock that hooked up to your tv and have wireless controllers. I hope I'm wrong on both predictions.

 

[RM8]

Can Nintendo successfully execute a "one title, two systems" strategy.

Eg NSMB3 [retail or download]

On a future handheld device, displays at a hypothetical 960x540 resolution.

And on a home system, the same title displays at 1920 x 1080.

I'm not sure this is the best idea. Mario Kart DS sold 20+ million copies, and Mario Kart Wii 30+ million copies. If it had been only one version across both platforms I really don't think this would have been the case (and the same is true for WiiU + 3DS iterations even if the numbers are not as big).

 

[Izayoi]

Nintendo has Pokemon, and as long as they do, they will be fine in the handheld market...

 

[Dr_Boris_Goltz]

I think Nintendo should partner with Apple and make an official controller adapter for iPhones that gives you access to Nintendo developed games.

 

[ccbfan]

The handheld market reduction by mobiles is not finished yet.

So far its taken the tech enthusist and the casuals.

Next it will being going for the children market. At the end of the day nothing beats free and more and more hand me down phones are coming into the eco-system. When the next Nintendo handheld comes out its will be fighting free phones parents already have + free software.

I don't think I know a 8 year old or younger that owns a handheld unless their parents are avid gamers.

 

[boltz]

I am really hoping that the mobile bubble is going to pop. It's a strong possibility based on some things I've heard when interviewing devs.

Still, even if it does, it may not be enough to save my favorite form of gaming. Only time will tell. For now I love my 3DS and my Vita.

The mobile bubble popping is not going to make folks ditch their phones and pick up a handheld. I'd imagine that most of the people playing mobile games are the kind of people who wouldn't buy a dedicated handheld in the first place.

 

[RM8]

The handheld market reduction by mobiles is not finished yet.

So far its taken the tech enthusist and the casuals.

Next it will being going for the children market. At the end of the day nothing beats free and more and more hand me down phones are coming into the eco-system. When the next Nintendo handheld comes out its will be fighting free phones parents already have + free software.

I don't think I know a 8 year old or younger that owns a handheld unless their parents are avid gamers.

People giving their one-year old phone/tablet to their kids has been happening for quite a while, it won't "start happening" in the future. And yes, kids right now are more likely to be seen playing on a phone/tablet than on a handheld, at least here in Mexico.

 

[vagabondarts]

As long as companies continue making standalone handheld game systems I'll continue to buy them because I don't like playing on the tv.
And mobile gaming sucks for me.

*shrugs*

I guess I'm in the extreme minority.

If I have to choose between mobile and tv mounted console only I'll just stop buying games and consoles.

 

[PreyingShark]

I think game prices need to go down. Max 34.99, but much more flexibility. About that...this is an idea I've tossed around many times over here, and it's related to the whole industry, but let's talk about Nintendo's handheld environment in this case, and I hope to get good answers on this, since I'd really like to know why it hasn't happened yet.
Long short story: digital SKUs of games being priced lower than their physical counterparts + codes for those digital SKUs sold at retail, for those reduced prices. Cards should have much lower inventory costs than physical goods, so retailers wouldn't lose in selling them, right? They could even sell them when the physical version is sold out, meaning not losing a possible sale due to a sell-out. It would be up to the customer: physical version, more expensive, but with collective value and for immediate play, or the code version, cheaper but which needs to download the game. Is it really impossible with the current state of relationships between companies and stores? Could it be fiesable in the next future? If not, why, and how to make it possible.

I know it's a bit off-topic, but it's also in-topic, considering one of the hot topics about handheld decline is how games prices are considered too high, and this would provide a solution, especially considering how we're talking about portables (where buying digital has a good advantage over retail in theory due to the possibility of carrying with you lots of games).

Publishers can already have digital SKUs be cheaper than their retail copies. We've already seen that a bit in Japan.

And there's already a lot of flexibility. Publishers can set the price of 3DS games to whatever the hell they want. Even NoA has been doing this for about a year now. Most recent cases are that Disney game and Mario Golf: World Tour at $29.99 and the new Kirby being what, $35? Big titles can get away with $39.99, but most titles should be a bit cheaper, and Nintendo does seem to be finally realizing that kind of.

EDIT: Basically, publishers are choosing to price their games at prices that are sometimes higher than what a lot of people are willing to pay for it. It's a serious issue.

 

[ccbfan]

People giving their one-year old phone/tablet to their kids has been happening for quite a while, it won't "start happening" in the future. And yes, kids right now are more likely to be seen playing on a phone/tablet than on a handheld, at least here in Mexico.

Oh I know its already starting but I don't think people are going to see the full brunt of it until next gen when all these now 6-10 year olds have 0 affinity with Nintendo and more phones enter the eco-system

 

[RM8]

Oh I know its already starting

Nope. We're almost on iPhone 6, nothing is "starting". Kids already grow up with Angry Birds and not with Mario.

BTW in order to lower software prices, it'd be cool if Nintendo would go back to 2D art in some games. I think precisely mobile has shown that people are okay with 2D art, and 3DS is severely deprived of 2D art (that actually looks really cool with 3D, a feature we most likely won't see coming back).

 

[AwShucks]

It'll be a bummer if Sony doesn't eventually make another handheld. I mean, another one isn't needed for years but I've always ended up with more games on my PSP/VITA than DS/3DS

 

[Effer]

Better battery life, higher quality screens, more compact and "sexy", fewer gimmicks.

Nintendo will do the opposite of this.

 

[jcm]

Perhaps an ultra cheap Pokemon branded handheld is one possibility. Featuring the mainline series and all the other side titles and paraphernalia.

Pokemon'a a hot seller for sure, and nintendo has been riding it hard, but they're going to need more than that if they aren't going to drastically downsize. Unless they put a ton of resources into the mysterious QOL stuff and treat handhelds as a sideline.

 

[ChronotriggerJM]

One problem that I have with Nintendo's reliance on Pokemon, is that it doesn't seem like a game reliant on physical buttons. It screams "target" for a Free to Play audience. Once someone cracks that piggy bank, and starts funneling content into the mobile scene, I think Pokemon will stop being relevant.

My beef with the handheld scene is the damn subsidized smartphones. It's tough to market a $200+ device, when you can have the latest iphone or Galaxy Note for that price (on contract). The technology just can't compete.

I just personally feel it would be wise for Sony and Nintendo to at least attempt to break into this sea of change. Sony needs it more obviously, but I don't think Nintendo's in the clear either.

And regarding the Hybrid device, I once again just don't see it. Making a device that's mobile in any way shape or form will require drastic power consumption restraints, thus hampering it's ability to showcase tech. $650 mobile phone tech > $300 hybrid device tech.

@M.I.S. Great read actually. Very interesting stuff.

 

[Mpl90]

Publishers can already have digital SKUs be cheaper than their retail copies. We've already seen that a bit in Japan.

And there's already a lot of flexibility. Publishers can set the price of 3DS games to whatever the hell they want. Even NoA has been doing this for about a year now. Most recent cases are that Disney game and Mario Golf: World Tour at $29.99 and the new Kirby being what, $35? Big titles can get away with $39.99, but most titles should be a bit cheaper, and Nintendo does seem to be finally realizing that kind of.

EDIT: Basically, publishers are choosing to price their games at prices that are sometimes higher than what a lot of people are willing to pay for it. It's a serious issue.

I suppose one of the reasons for the retail prices are also costs of producing carts / discs. IIRC, Nirolak said the cost if 12$ per cart, or something like that, and that has an effect on the final cost to the customer. Right now, it's possible the prices went down, and that's why we're seeing Nintendo reducing prices of older titles (even more recent ones) and also things like Mario Golf at 29.99. Of course, it's also a recent Nintendo's change of policy, seeing how they also permanently lowered W101, Ninja Gaiden and G&W digital prices, and how NoE is using VC games as bonuses for those who buy digital SKUs of games (in the Mario Kart case, we have something similar to a preorder, basically: put down a part of the money, then pay the rest when the good arrives).

And it's true that, in Japan, this is already happening. It needs also to be said that, IIRC, retailers can sell games at slightly discounted prices, and Amazon always does that, with 18-20% discounts, so it's also the market being more used at discounted prices at launch, but the number of games with at least 500 Yen discounts is increasing. The last Nobunaga's Ambition was 1,200 Yen lower on PSN (starting from 8,800 Yen, though... :lol ), but recently Theatrhythm left me legit shook: 6,200 Yen retail, 4,800 on eShop. Yep, that's a 1,400 discount on eShop, and it beats also Amazon :O

Download cards = no carts production costs, much lowered inventory costs for retailers, so, in theory, both parties should seriously think about it.
Having digital codes on shelves means also having some digital titles (those from main sh, not indies) on shelves right at the side of their possible retail SKUs , which would mean bigger presence and bigger diversity in the eyes of not-experienced customers, who don't know the digital offering of the system(s)

They should also think about a system where the retailer could actually produce download cards by itself, thanks to a special printer + private online service that lets you buy stocks of digital codes and then you simply print the codes on the special card and...you can restock them whenever you need, in the exact quantity you need, easily. Heck, if indie devs get involved, that would mean having indie titles on shelves too, in theory.

Ok, the last part was certainly less related with things that can happen in the next few years (hopefully, not, but still...); however, yeah, publishers and retailers need to talk about the possibility seriously.

 

[Game Guru]

I think Sony is basically out. Vita is just not doing it.

Nintendo however is still in and if they are smart they will do as follows:

Nintendo Game Player: Successor to the 2DS, and is a small handheld with a single touchscreen and dual analog controls. $99
Nintendo Game Tablet: Successor to the 3DS XL, and is a large tablet with a single touchscreen and dual analog controls. $199
Nintendo Game System: Successor to the Wii U, and is a microconsole with dual analog controller with a touchpad on it. $199

The important point about these three systems is that they for the most part would share the same library of games and would have the same hardware and OS inside, and to further this, Nintendo should have an account system similar to the PlayStation and Xbox brands and should allow support of something like Unity. Any game made for the Player would also work on the Tablet and the System as well and even in regards of physical format, Nintendo should use something similar to 3DS Cards. However, this is not to say that the three would be completely interchangeable in that there are some things which the Nintendo Game System would do that the others wouldn't, namely if one wants single-screen, local multiplayer or to use accessories other than the default controls, they would need to buy a System. However, Players, Tablets, and Systems would play ad-hoc and online against each other with no trouble since they are basically the same system inside and out. The Touchpad on the System's controller would be how one can play games designed for touch on the System. In this way, Nintendo can continue the ideas that the Wii U started. I think it would be end up with decent enough sales and show that Nintendo is determined to make an iOS/Android-like software platform rather than rely on differing hardware and software. The names I suggested are intended to invoke both the Nintendo Game Boy and the Nintendo Entertainment System while also being clear on what type of hardware each device is.

 

[SeanR1221]

It will be really weird for Sony to not have a handheld. I'd be bummed out.

I think ps now will become their handheld on tablets and phones. Sync a controller up and you got yourself a handheld. I doubt it will have iOS support though

I could also see some ps now original games (think netflix original shows)

 

[Daingurse]

In the ground, to be buried. I dont think handhelds will be viable, in another gen or two. It feels inevitable, Nintendo's next iteration of their handheld will show truly how healthy things are. As much as I enjoyed my Vita and 3DS, I think the audience for dedicated portable hardware is disappearing.

Definitely taking a wait and see approach, but I'm not optimistic at all on this subject.

 

[DLaicH]

Maybe handhelds will become "headhelds," i.e. dedicated VR units.

Some people say that VR is a gimmick because it shuts out the communal aspect of having a TV that multiple people can view. However, handhelds are basically a category of gaming device that are intended to be enjoyed by one person at a time, so it seems to me that VR headsets would appeal to that market if they became dedicated personal gaming devices instead of something you plug into your PC or console.

Just a thought.