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[Vanillalite]

Look everyone on GAF has seen the general NPD trend for the 3ds and Vita for a few years now, and the situation is getting worse not better.

So where do Sony and Nintendo go from here. Nintendo at least appears to be selling something even if it's on a clear downtrend. Plus they have Smash for Summer. This at least buys them a little bit of time to figure out where to go from here.

With those March numbers I'm not sure if Sony has anytime. Another month of 10k in April and I'm not sure if retailers will even give them a chance to figure it out.

Either way the trendline for dedicated handheld hardware is bad at best and apocalyptic if this trend continues for the whole idea. Sure they are doing well in Japan, but one territory this doesn't make.

One could also say Sony could ride the Vita out more as a PS4 accessory, and then I guess leave Nintendo to really figure it out. Maybe if sadly Sony bows out that would give Nintendo one more run as they'd consolidate the market under one lone piece of hardware.

You could also say both Sony and Nintendo could give it one more college try and fix some of the nagging issues company ideas be damned. This might mean better non gimmicky Nintendo hardware with a real account system or a Sony handheld that gives in and goes with SD cards for storage.

You have to wonder though if that would even be enough, and if we are watching the death of the dedicated handheld space right before our own very eyes.

 

[Alcotholic]

Hmm... Nintendo is doing fine. Sony, not so well. With the mobile market it will hinder handheld sales, but I think Nintendo will be fine regardless.

 

[slit]

I don't know, but I do know that Sony is not going to have any part in it.

 

[Diddy Kong]

My guess is Nintendo will do a hybrid type machine and Sony would do something that's more of a companion to PS5

 

[Zalman]

Nintendo handhelds will continue to sell. Not as much as they used to, but they will still be profitable. Because of that, they will keep doing what they've always been doing.

They're really not doing anything wrong with the 3DS right now. It's just not possible for a device like the 3DS to sell 100+ million in this day and age.

Sony will probably not make another dedicated handheld. The Vita is a massive flop.

 

[Sir Garbageman]

quietly into the night...?

 

[Gwanatu T]

When the first iPhone games launches and people started talking about the death of dedicated handhelds I absolutely didn't believe them. Why would anyone want to play a real game on a device without buttons, I asked. Apparently people don't care and are choosing convenience over quality in this case and must think very little of handheld games if they are choosing that over a proper dedicated handheld. There's also the price factor too, with 3ds games pushing $40 at release and Vita at $50 most of the time, right? Take that against the hoards of $1 games or even freemium stuff and I'm not sure Nintendo or Sony can do a damned thing to fight this at this point. They need to call it quits and join the phone game, bring their stuff to the market and make their own hardware too. I think if people can buy a phone from Nintendo or Sony that's a true gaming phone powered by Android so they can get the apps they love as well we can see a turnaround with their handheld properties. Until then less and less people want an extra piece of hardware sitting around collecting dust.

 

[PlumCantaloupe]

There is definitely still room for them as long as they differentiate. The 3DS has done this better than the Vita with streetpass but the power differential was a big large.

They must adapt, though even then DS and GB figures are likely not in the forseeable future.

 

[gngf123]

Hmm... Nintendo is doing fine. Sony, not so well. With the mobile market it will hinder handheld sales, but I think Nintendo will be fine regardless.

Nintendo are doing fine, but they aren't doing anywhere near as well as they used to be. The 3DS was down YoY last year despite the mass of heavy hitting software and might not even hit PSP numbers in the long run.

I think they will be fine as well, but the 3DS successor will need to be something special to get even close to what the 3DS currently is.

 

[Cipherr]

Nintendo are doing fine, but they aren't doing anywhere near as well as they used to be. The 3DS was down YoY last year despite the mass of heavy hitting software and might not even hit PSP numbers in the long run.

Luckily for them "doing anywhere near as well as they used to be" isn't the threshold for whether something is profitable or makes business sense. Its made them a lot of money, so I definitely see them doing another one in a few years. When they experience their 'Vita' then they will stop, but the 3DS ain't it.

Im sure they will try some new things the next handheld though to try and give it a kick, but I fully expect to see another one from Nintendo. Not Sony though.

 

[ZeroAKA]

I'd be surprised if Sony makes another handheld but even more so if Nintendo doesn't. As long as handhelds exist, I'll continue buying them.

 

[sixteen-bit]

Niche / enthusiast only?

 

[kirby_fox]

Portable gaming only has a place in Japan.

The QOL platform may be a 3DS replacement, we don't know yet. There's a lot of potential tech for them to use out there-- bendable screens is my first thought. I don't see the appeal of an all-in-one device people keep calling for. Nintendo needs to keep their handheld as close to $100 as they can.

Sony is bowing out. They're going to focus on PlayStation Now, bringing all their games to tablets and phones. If anything, we'll see dedicated tablets that easily connect a dualshock.

 

[SyaraSystem]

Sony's been positioning themselves to be able to provide PlayStation content without the need for dedicated devices. I think the Vita will (sadly) be their dedicated handheld swan song.

 

[FyreWulff]

As long as dedicated gaming handhelds have real buttons, mobile can't really replace their function.

An iOS device or Android device sale is not a lost 3DS sale, and vice versa. "Not selling as much as the DS" isn't really a failure, you're comparing your hardware to an absolute juggernaut.

 

[Mauricio_Magus]

Sony is not going to make another handheld, Nintendo will keep doing them.

I really hope the next Nintendo handheld(which we probably will see by 2016) is a hit, Nintendo HAS to be planning something because they know the market is dying.

I need buttons and games that aren't all F2P crap.

 

[ryushe]

I don't know but I hope they're here to stay for a very long time.

The 3DS and the Vita are both the reasons why I even still consider myself a gamer.

 

[kinggroin]

2 SKU Handheld device built on Android. One is a phone, the other isn't.

All games have to support a button less mode.

The non phone SKU is traditional. The phone SKU can be set into a sleek cradle that adds buttons as an option.

5" screen that can be split in the middle for DS/3DS VC support.

 

[KimonoNoNo]

My guess Sony will just ride it out until the situation becomes untenable, like they did with Walkman. Luckily Sony has got a hit on it's hands with Ps4 and the Vita hardware is still pretty current so they're at least getting games from smaller developers with the odd SCEJ 1st party and port thrown in.

As far as Nintendo is concerned they're in a tricky place right now, as I can't see them walking away from handhelds and their home console is tanking. They'll definitely offer a replacement to the 3ds sometime down the road, but they'll be selling to an ever shrinking market.

 

[McHuj]

Nintendo needs to iterate on hardware more frequently and not just cosmetic changes. Moving to an off the shelf mobile SOC should help reduce costs and help developers. I think they need an approach more like the cellular world, where new more powerful phones come out and are fully compatible with existing software and even the old hardware can run new software (up to a point).

I think this would help get rid of the generational switch, where at each new generation you're basically starting with a zero install base. They could release new hardware every 2-3 years and maintain two on the market a high and low spec, the oldest machine would get dropped which would be 4-6 years old at that point.

 

[Bit-Bit]

I'm sure the successor to the 3DS will also allow for wireless TV streaming with a dongle receiver or something and will also be their one platform future.

 

[family_guy]

Don't know. I just wonder why Sony invested money in Vita TV and Vita 2000 when the original wasn't doing well. The Vita should have been an 7-8 inch tablet with access to the Google Play store(or maybe a closed version like Amazon has) as well as exclusive access to play PSP/PS1 games on the PS store. It would come packed with a controller to ensure all games support it. Console/Vita quality games could still be released for it.

 

[Arcanine55]

This kind of threads and discussions makes me sad.
I really like my Vita and my 3ds, not having both types of handhelds in the future anymore is just killing my favourite type of gaming.

 

[Saroyan]

Sony won't make another one, which is too bad since the Vita is a great piece of hardware.

Nintendo will make at least one more, hopefully something better than the 3DS. I have a regular and an XL 3DS but neither one is what I would call great. They have mediocre screens, low resolution and uncomfortable ergonomics.

Nintendo will have to step up the game to compare favorably to even lower end smart phones, or go the other direction and make something really inexpensive and try and sell it to kids. But I don't think that market is really there anymore, everyone here knows how many kids are playing games on cheap tablets or their parents phone. Things don't look great for Nintendo hardware IMO, and that makes me a little sad.

 

[Kageshinzo]

Handheld gaming devices will become niche/enthusiast-only, like how they were from the beginning. It will still be profitable as there will still be people who would prefer these types of games that mobile phones/tablets can't.

Seriously, people should just chill the fuck out.

 

[KimonoNoNo]

Don't know. I just wonder why Sony invested money in Vita TV and Vita 2000 when the original wasn't doing well. The Vita should have been an 7-8 inch tablet with access to the Google Play store(or maybe a closed version like Amazon has) as well as exclusive access to play PSP/PS1 games on the PS store. It would come packed with a controller to ensure all games support it. Console/Vita quality games could still be released for it.

The 2000 is a cost reduced revision and VitaTV was using spare manufacturing capacity.

 

[frankie_baby]

Don't know. I just wonder why Sony invested money in Vita TV and Vita 2000 when the original wasn't doing well. The Vita should have been an 7-8 inch tablet with access to the Google Play store(or maybe a closed version like Amazon has) as well as exclusive access to play PSP/PS1 games on the PS store. It would come packed with a controller to ensure all games support it. Console/Vita quality games could still be released for it.

Vita 2000 I could see eeking the life out a bit for vita, as people's OLED screens start to die en mass those with significant investments in vita software may be forced to "upgrade" won't be any kind of turn around for the machine but might keep it on the shelves for another year or so

 

[Blargonaut]

Get physical

Spoiler

Proof: Skylanders

 

[GYNGA]

Extinct

 

[The Horror the horror]

Question for everyone:

Since it's likely that Sony will exit the dedicated handheld market at the conclusion of Vita's lifespan and will no longer compete directly with Nintendo for this space, is it likely that a partnership can be forged in this capacity (i.e., building Nintendo's handheld and implementing its PSN service/OS) since there no longer will be a conflict of interest on the part of Sony? Nintendo still controls its own hardware (Sony will only design it) and its own software, they yield nothing to Sony on either fronts.

 

[NimbusD]

I'd be shocked if Nintendo's next console wasn't some kind of hybrid system. Think a 3ds (prob minus 3d) with the technology of the Wii U Gamepad. Would be able to either just connect straight to a TV or sync with console as a controller. Agh, maybe that's just wishful thinking because, Nintendo. But it certainly seems that's the way they're moving (then again last gen, who would have bet that they'd double down on motion controls?) I guess it depends on whether the price points for the technology necessary are where Nintendo wants them to be.

I also think that with younger people, phone service and texting capabilities are less and less important. If the next gen handhelds are able to get 4g and support for popular messaging and video call apps, it might make them an easier sell to people who otherwise wouldn't buy them, without having to make PSphone and Nintendo phone.

 

[tuffy]

The dedicated handheld market has traditionally been "Nintendo plus a rounding error of whoever else is releasing something at the time". Now that we're returning to that status quo, it's up to Nintendo to come up with a 3DS successor with more mass-market appeal. To do that, I think they're going to need something with a cheaper launch price, some new IPs with broad appeal (like Nintendogs, but not just another Nintendogs iteration) and the usual backwards compatibility/1st party franchise titles to move the current audience forward.

 

[Mauricio_Magus]

Question for everyone:

Since it's likely that Sony will exit the dedicated handheld market at the conclusion of Vita's lifespan and will no longer compete directly with Nintendo for this space, is it likely that a partnership can be forged in this capacity (i.e., building Nintendo's handheld and implementing its PSN service/OS) since there no longer will be a conflict of interest on the part of Sony? Nintendo still controls its own hardware (Sony will only design it) and its own software, they yield nothing to Sony on either fronts.

That's not going to happen. (unless one of them buy the other or something crazy)

 

[chickdigger802]

nintendo does what nintendo does.


sony... i can see vita being improved a bit over time, but will be the last handheld. pretty much the only new games for the system are just slightly prettier psp games or 2d indie style games anyhow.

 

[ViewtifulJC]

Niche market for people who will $40 for quirky Japanese handheld games

 

[hardcastlemccormick]

I see them becoming much cheaper and existing as companions for consoles. Software support will trickle off; mostly $10-20 indie titles available digitally. Basically where the Vita is now, but less premium and much cheaper.

 

[tim.mbp]

foothelds

 

[ThatStupidLion]

I think sony is positioned to be able to put playstation now on android devices and go after subscriptions while putting out a controller with it.

Or theyll do it with their own tablets etc.

Really sad though that this is vitas fate. Dreamcast 2.0 for sure. Wish they tried advertising for it.

 

[jackal27]

I am really hoping that the mobile bubble is going to pop. It's a strong possibility based on some things I've heard when interviewing devs.

Still, even if it does, it may not be enough to save my favorite form of gaming. Only time will tell. For now I love my 3DS and my Vita.

 

[Atolm]

Even in Japan, smartphones and tablets are taking over, albeit slowly. Unless something changes, dedicated handhelds will go extinct sooner or later.

 

[ccbfan]

Dedicated handheld that are technical marvels are dead. People are getting 600 dollars worth of hardware for free to 200 with a 2 year contract these day. So Sony is definitely out.

Nintendo still has a market though. Just a completely different much smaller market. Dedicated handheld are now "toys" so price them like toys. No more $250 crap again. Their biggest problem though is software. 40 dollar software is not going to survive in a 1 dollar/freemium environment. The major titles like pokemon will sell but everything else will not.

Another problem for Nintendo is mindshare. Kids these days are growing up with hand me down phones not 3DS.

 

[GhostTrick]

Windows 8 tablets. I'm serious here. All we need is attachment controller:

8 inch tablet is perfect form factor for this. And Baytrail tablets run UE3 games fine. Every indie games runs perfect.

 

[Mike Golf]

What's sad is the Vita gave what everyone wanted hardware wise in a dedicated handheld, but is not selling well. The only thing it lacks is R2 and L2 buttons. Overpriced memory cards aside it's essentially the best we could have got in 2012 when it released for it's price point. There's no valid argument that it has no games, it has tons. Any PSONE title on PSN, any PSP title on PSN and of course it's own slew of Vita specific games. I would love to see Sony stay in the handheld space, but I don't see what else they could do to attract gamers that they haven't already aside from launching a specific "system seller" title. If correcting all the flaws of your previous hand held system, aside from creating a new one in memory cards, and giving it at a great price point isn't what handheld gamers want I don't know what is.

 

[fade_]

I think Sony will continue to push the Vita this generation despite lackluster sales....they really have no other choice.

 

[tuffy]

I keep saying it... we need another GameBoy model (even if they don't use that name). Rugged, low-priced, with the big modern inclusion being a full touchscreen. No more of this awkward 2004 dual screen stuff.

Basically the same way Kindles keep chugging along even though everyone can read books on their tablets. Bring dedicated hardware into impulse buy territory with a library of worthwhile exclusives and it should be possible to prosper in that niche.

 

[gigantor21]

Question for everyone:

Since it's likely that Sony will exit the dedicated handheld market at the conclusion of Vita's lifespan and will no longer compete directly with Nintendo for this space, is it likely that a partnership can be forged in this capacity (i.e., building Nintendo's handheld and implementing its PSN service/OS) since there no longer will be a conflict of interest on the part of Sony? Nintendo still controls its own hardware (Sony will only design it) and its own software, they yield nothing to Sony on either fronts.

As much as I'd love that idea, there's no way it would happen. At absolute most it could end up like the SNES, where they use a Sony-made part or something. But Nintendo wouldn't give Sony that much leverage over their hardware design overall.

As to the larger question? Dedicated handhelds have nowhere to go but down. They can't match the convenience or cheapness of smartphones/tablet gaming, so they'll have to work much harder just to tread water--much like the 3DS has been doing.

Sony has no reason to pursue the handheld space anymore. They'll keep the Vita in hospice care for a few more years and then wash their hands of it. Nintendo is making enough money in that space to keep at it, but I expect to see even more diminished returns no matter what they do next. It simply isn't a growth market anymore.

 

[sörine]

3DS isn't doing fine but it's surviving. Vita isn't even managing that.

 

[genjiZERO]

Man, if handhelds went away I'd probably be out of gaming entirely.

They are the only format that provides me with the experiences I enjoy. Consoles game are either too focused on cinematics or require too much dedication. Tablet/phone games are trite.

 

[bigmit3737]

I love the Vita ,hardware wise- if this Is Sony's last handheld , please support it for a long time.

 

[djtiesto]

Niche market for people who will $40 for quirky Japanese handheld games

I could live with this...