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[jcm]

I think Sony is basically out. Vita is just not doing it.

Nintendo however is still in and if they are smart they will do as follows:

Nintendo Game Player: Successor to the 2DS, and is a small handheld with a single touchscreen and dual analog controls. $99
Nintendo Game Tablet: Successor to the 3DS XL, and is a large tablet with a single touchscreen and dual analog controls. $199
Nintendo Game System: Successor to the Wii U, and is a microconsole with dual analog controller with a touchpad on it. $199

The important point about these three systems is that they for the most part would share the same library of games and would have the same hardware and OS inside, and to further this, Nintendo should have an account system similar to the PlayStation and Xbox brands and should allow support of something like Unity. Any game made for the Player would also work on the Tablet and the System as well and even in regards of physical format, Nintendo should use something similar to 3DS Cards. However, this is not to say that the three would be completely interchangeable in that there are some things which the Nintendo Game System would do that the others wouldn't, namely if one wants single-screen, local multiplayer or to use accessories other than the default controls, they would need to buy a System. However, Players, Tablets, and Systems would play ad-hoc and online against each other with no trouble since they are basically the same system inside and out. The Touchpad on the System's controller would be how one can play games designed for touch on the System. In this way, Nintendo can continue the ideas that the Wii U started. I think it would be end up with decent enough sales and show that Nintendo is determined to make an iOS/Android-like software platform rather than rely on differing hardware and software. The names I suggested are intended to invoke both the Nintendo Game Boy and the Nintendo Entertainment System while also being clear on what type of hardware each device is.

I think you've got things basically right. This appears to fit Iwata's description of his plan. I don't know if it will work, but it think this is what they're going to do.

Exactly. The kindle is so damn good at what it does, and so well-priced, that it exists even when almost everyone has two or more devices to read books on.

No reason why the next set of handhelds can't do the same. Right now they're too expensive and unwieldy, even though the 3DS is at least close to the right price.

This is a good point. When my wife lost her kindle, I suggested replacing it with an ipad, but she just wanted another kindle. Maybe there's room for a dedicated handheld to command similar loyalty.

 

[JordanN]

It'll be a bummer if Sony doesn't eventually make another handheld. I mean, another one isn't needed for years but I've always ended up with more games on my PSP/VITA than DS/3DS

Even if Sony makes another handheld, what's it going to do?

PS4 graphics? I dunno, Japan is the only one supporting Vita and most games don't even match Wipeout 2048 or Uncharted GA in graphics.

Seems like a waste. I rather Sony just update the Vita like the Gameboy Color.

Faster processors so everything runs at native res but still uses the same architecture so last gen isn't left behind.

 

[slit]

Maybe handhelds will become "headhelds," i.e. dedicated VR units.

Some people say that VR is a gimmick because it shuts out the communal aspect of having a TV that multiple people can view. However, handhelds are basically a category of gaming device that are intended to be enjoyed by one person at a time, so it seems to me that VR headsets would appeal to that market if they became dedicated personal gaming devices instead of something you plug into your PC or console.

Just a thought.

That doesn't sound very portable and if it was the last thing we need is people running around with VR sets on. We have enough problems with people looking at their damn phones while stumbling into the streets. I can't even imagine the human pancakes that would result with this.

 

[Foffy]

I don't know. I have a feeling that we may see a hybrid platform from Nintendo. There is a growing divide between handheld and console markets all over the world, and it seems separating the two seems like a futile exercise.

 

[Pikma]

The only thing I know is that If handhelds died the only thing happy would be my wallet, since 90% of my gaming budget goes there. Actually, I'm not sure if I'd continue to follow the industry, outside of Nintendo games, the current console games are completely uninteresting to me and even if I had to give them one more chance (believe me, I've given them many in the past) I doubt they'd be enough to keep my interest in the hobby alive.

 

[IncandescentPrecept]

Hmm... Nintendo is doing fine. Sony, not so well. With the mobile market it will hinder handheld sales, but I think Nintendo will be fine regardless.

They are forecasting a loss for the year.

 

[DLaicH]

That doesn't sound very portable and if it was the last thing we need is people running around with VR sets on. We have enough problems with people looking at their damn phones while stumbling into the streets. I can't even imagine the human pancakes that would result with this.

It wouldn't be very portable if implemented today, but I think it could be made very portable once the technology has matured. And you have a point about people walking around while playing, but I know that at least for me, I play handhelds way more often while sitting or standing still than I do while walking.

But if people do want to walk while gaming, maybe a dedicated AR device would be a better idea for them. Like a gaming-oriented Google Glass.

 

[Esque7]

There really isn't a market for console like gaming on a dedicated gaming handheld like the vita. Nintendo at least has their IPs to support their handhelds, but who knows for how long.

 

[Sectorseven]

There's also the other competition like android controllers and nvidia shield. Sure they haven't cracked the nut yet, but a lot can change in one or two years in the mobile market.

 

[Silvawuff]

Steam could release a handheld.

Maybe another party will throw their lot in the ring with something irresistible. I don't think Sony is done with the handheld market, even with the polarizing performance of the Vita.

 

[Lumyst]

Something that others were speculating in past threads was about bringing "forward compatibility" to the dedicated handhelds, so I hope to see that. Some games don't need the most cutting edge hardware so if people are interested in those kinds of games (2D platformers?), some degree of forward compatibility could allow those users to continue buying software even if a newer iteration of the device is made.

 

[ArtHands]

Since Sony is more or less out of the race, I hope Steam will step in to fill Sony's shoes next gen.

 

[Sandfox]

I think there will always be a dedicated market for portables but companies will have to build the device with the size of that market in mind.

Nintendo will need to make it easier to port indie and mobile games to their next handheld and if they make build it close enough with their next console they may see some console ports as well.

Since Sony is more or less out of the race, I hope Steam will step in to fill Sony's shoes next gen.

I don't really see what Valve could offer that would put them in a better situation than Sony was from a SW standpoint.

 

[Thoraxes]

Nintendo are doing fine, but they aren't doing anywhere near as well as they used to be. The 3DS was down YoY last year despite the mass of heavy hitting software and might not even hit PSP numbers in the long run.

I think they will be fine as well, but the 3DS successor will need to be something special to get even close to what the 3DS currently is.

To me it's like comparing the PS3 to the PS2.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Decline of handheld in visual form.

US market, TTM.

With Vita dead dead, and 3DS down about 30% Y/Y, HH TTM is headed towards sub-3M. If nothing new launches or nothing else changes in 2015, and there isn't really anything on the horizon, then continued slide.

The problem I see with a Nintendo tablet, is that it will presumably still run a proprietary Nintendo OS rather than Android. And I see one of the issues with handhelds as they are now in that people don't want to carry multiple dedicated devices. They won't want to carry around a Nintendo tablet and an iPad or Galaxy Note.

The other issue is the rapid refresh cycles of the latter products. Free hand-me-down is cheaper for a parent than buying a dedicated system.

 

[RM8]

Even though Vita is a huge bomb, we don't know if for some reason Sony might want to try again. It's not like we think Nintendo won't release another home console just because WiiU is also a big failure. This time Sony would absolutely NOT pursure the "premium, high-end" handheld, though, they'd be silly to do that. I honestly hope they try again, because I want the handheld market to keep existing even if clearly reduced post-mobile.

 

[Log4Girlz]

Nintendo needs to iterate on hardware more frequently and not just cosmetic changes. Moving to an off the shelf mobile SOC should help reduce costs and help developers. I think they need an approach more like the cellular world, where new more powerful phones come out and are fully compatible with existing software and even the old hardware can run new software (up to a point).

I think this would help get rid of the generational switch, where at each new generation you're basically starting with a zero install base. They could release new hardware every 2-3 years and maintain two on the market a high and low spec, the oldest machine would get dropped which would be 4-6 years old at that point.

They need to do this

 

[RM8]

That does sound good, but at some point the low-end systems would struggle with newer games, and that sounds rather un-Nintendo-ish, honestly. With the traditional generation model it's very clear your DS won't play 3DS games, period, and everyone gets the exact same experience. Still, it'd be interesting to see, I guess.

 

[ghst]

nintendo will strike gold when they harness the up-and-coming curved screen OLED tech and make a handheld which doubles as a cup; a cup which entitles you to free refills at participating mcdonalds for the duration of the launch campaign.

they'll call it the game n' gulp and i'll have kids just to give me a reason to buy more than one.

 

[ArtHands]

I think there will always be a dedicated market for portables but companies will have to build the device with the size of that market in mind.

Nintendo will need to make it easier to port indie and mobile games to their next handheld and if they make build it close enough with their next console they may see some console ports as well.



I don't really see what Valve could offer that would put them in a better situation than Sony was from a SW standpoint.

I really think they have the best infrastructure for digital gaming. The only roadblock is that they have no experience in making a dedicated gaming hardware.

Then again I doubt they'll jump in anyway.

 

[JordanN]

Decline of handheld in visual form.

US market, TTM.

With Vita dead dead, and 3DS down about 30% Y/Y, HH TTM is headed towards sub-3M. If nothing new launches or nothing else changes in 2015, and there isn't really anything on the horizon, then continued slide.

The problem I see with a Nintendo tablet, is that it will presumably still run a proprietary Nintendo OS rather than Android. And I see one of the issues with handhelds as they are now in that people don't want to carry multiple dedicated devices. They won't want to carry around a Nintendo tablet and an iPad or Galaxy Note.

The other issue is the rapid refresh cycles of the latter products. Free hand-me-down is cheaper for a parent than buying a dedicated system.

Woah, I didn't know it was that bad.

Now the big question is, why aren't Sony and Nintendo throwing everything they got at these handhelds? The situation is looking very dire yet every day seems nonchalant to these companies.

I really hope this is not another case of "screw the West" again.

 

[Kiote]

People need to stop looking at things like this as if a single generation of handheld or console is in any way indicative of a trend. The 3DS is not selling at DS levels, but it is selling on par with Handheld averages. The Vita bombed, but it's predecessor did quite well. For something to be a trend, it has to be moving in the same direction over multiple data points. If anything, the current state of the handheld market only points to things settling down after a huge handheld bubble. Both Sony and Nintendo could just a soon come up with a handheld concept that takes the world by storm, the same way Nintendo did with the Wii and DS and Sony did with the PS2 and now PS4.

The Game Industry does not function in the same way as the the vast majority of other industries. New hardware concepts are so few and far between that Trends are not a factor. Every release of new hardware is a reset button. At any given time, a new concept can take the world by storm or fall on it's face. The handheld market will persist just as long as the console market. The fear of the market collapse stems from no one having been able to Identify a concept that could have the next DS effect. My money is on Nintendo creating a OS ecosystem with a heavy focus on hybrid Console/Handheld hardware, but until we see it there is no way to know how the world will react.

 

[RM8]

Now the big question is, why aren't Sony and Nintendo throwing everything they got at these handhelds?.

Nintendo is performing CPR on WiiU, Sony is making sure PS4 is an actual success.

 

[Prototype]

They should make their own phones with a focus on gaming but use an existing company (T-mob, Verizon, ATT, ect) for service contracts.

 

[Kiote]

They should make their own phones with a focus on gaming but use an existing company (T-mob, Verizon, ATT, ect) for service contracts.

This would only work if they could get every major carrier on board. Remember the boos when Sony announced 3G for Vita exclusively on AT&T?

 

[MikeXXIeaf]

I can't stand handhelds and their usage today is totally lost on me. People seem to want a second, weaker device just so they can sit at home next to a more powerful device and play it. I don't see the logic. This whole craze of wanting more devices for the sake of having access to more games is so strange. I mean, a lot the games on 3DS have better versions on Wii and Wii U. There's just no point unless you're going to actually play away from home.

"But plenty of people do play on the go".

Fair enough, but what adult has enough time outside of home (barring they're not in a hotel or public transportation or something) to justify dragging a full fledged video game around? Mobile games make more sense here, sorry, and the numbers seem to back me up on this.

 

[Sandfox]

I can't stand handhelds and their usage today is totally lost on me. People seem to want a second, weaker device just so they can sit at home next to a more powerful device and play it. I don't see the logic. This whole craze of wanting more devices for the sake of having access to more games is so strange. I mean, a lot the games on 3DS have better versions on Wii and Wii U. There's just no point unless you're going to actually play away from home.

"But plenty of people do play on the go".

Fair enough, but what adult has enough time outside of home (barring they're not in a hotel or public transportation or something) to justify dragging a full fledged video game around? Mobile games make more sense here, sorry, and the numbers seem to back me up on this.

A lot of people don't like the majority of mobile games coming out and prefer the experience that handhelds provide.

 

[MikeXXIeaf]

A lot of people don't like the majority of mobile games coming out and prefer the experience that handhelds provide.

You say "a lot" but I guarantee they're in the minority.

 

[Green Biker Dude]

i don't think the market for dedicated handhelds will exist for another 2 generations. next gen, maybe it will still be ok. but i doubt it'll do better than the wii u the gen after

ios is already starting to support controllers, and android has had it for a while, even though it's not used often, once games start using it for the iphone, things will change

the reason the consoles and pc have been coexisting is because there is a myth about pc gaming being complex and you always needing to upgrade parts and whatnot. people also bs about being uncomfortable not maxing games, even though they end up settling for even inferior settings on the console versions. but cellphones don't have that problem, so there is no reason for the dedicated gaming machines to exist on that market

 

[RM8]

I mean, a lot the games on 3DS have better versions on Wii and Wii U..

This is so not true. I vastly prefer the DS and 3DS libraries over Wii and WiiU libraries, regardless of form factor. And yes, I do prefer handhelds over home consoles.

 

[outunderthestars]

Woah, I didn't know it was that bad.

Now the big question is, why aren't Sony and Nintendo throwing everything they got at these handhelds? The situation is looking very dire yet every day seems nonchalant to these companies.

I really hope this is not another case of "screw the West" again.

Sony launched the Vita with games from most of the largest franchises and a lsrae marketing budget. People just don't seem to want to buy it. Not sure how throwing more resources towards a failed product would make a difference.

 

[eighty(one)]

2 SKU Handheld device built on Android. One is a phone, the other isn't.

All games have to support a button less mode.

The non phone SKU is traditional. The phone SKU can be set into a sleek cradle that adds buttons as an option.

5" screen that can be split in the middle for DS/3DS VC support.

Whatever they do, they should avoid your suggestion. An Android device, will KILL any dedicated handheld - which is lose/lose for any handheld enthusiast/gamer.

Android, being easily rootable as a platform, incurs heavy App/game piracy. This would be incredibly bad for dedicated games, gamers and should be avoided by both Nintendo and Sony.

Yes, Android/iOS are common handset options; however these are not the answers for handhelds.

Nintendo and Sony would have to license the OS, losing OS level control of their own platforms.

Anybody who knows what piracy did for the PSP - would never recommend Android.

 

[Sandfox]

You say "a lot" but I guarantee they're in the minority.

I'm not talking about the majority because people who always have their phones on them and a majority of the popular games on mobile are free. People like playing on handhelds because its a different experience from playing on mobile and to many its preferable for various reasons.

 

[RM8]

@eighty(one): Yeah, I'm not sure why people don't see this. Nintendo is particularly terrified of piracy on top of that, it's simply not going to happen.

 

[JordanN]

Sony launched the Vita with games from most of the largest franchises and a lsrae marketing budget. People just don't seem to want to buy it. Not sure how throwing more resources towards a failed product would make a difference.

The launch software was ok, but the impending year wasn't.

A handheld (like a console) is only as good as its future, and when Monster Hunter completely passed over it, it became obvious Sony clearly wasn't doing enough to sustain consumer interest.
Don't forget they made things worse by going with memory cards (though I have no numbers on how much it damaged the Vita's rep).

 

[chrominance]

Sony's now in full control of their mobile phone division, something that wasn't true when the Xperia Play came out. So my expectation for the future is that they would maybe perhaps leverage that expertise and take another shot at putting out a phone with game controls. One obvious idea would be to find a way to virtualize the Vita environment in Android and keep selling Vita games that way, possibly turning it into a new PS Mobile platform. Sony could in theory also produce controllers that hooked into other Android phones to ease adoption of the new platform.

But who am I kidding? PS Mobile hasn't exactly done great as a platform so far, so whether Sony can actually keep Vita (or some successor platform) alive using a mobile strategy is questionable at best. Plus you might have even greater trouble differentiating Sony-platform games from general Android ones. And honestly, the fundamentals of the business haven't exactly changed since the Xperia Play, either--people don't seem that interested in phones with game controls and they haven't been buying third-party controllers either. It probably doesn't help that the iOS controllers are hilariously expensive, either.

Does Sony put out another dedicated handheld? I can't imagine it unless it stays in Japan, and even then it's not a given. Phones are eating up that market too quickly, and the niche of people who want games on the go but don't like touchscreen games is shrinking in North America at least, possibly also Europe.

As for Nintendo, I'm sure they'll give the handheld thing another kick at the can. They have more reliable first-party franchises to bring people in and as long as Monster Hunter's on the system and popular they'll be able to convince a large number of Japanese gamers to buy it. But I'd also expect that handheld to perform worse than the 3DS, possibly much worse. If Japanese investors are already asking Nintendo what they'll do about the mobile competition, you have to imagine that pressure will only increase over time.

EDIT: Re: piracy concerns. Well, sure. But assuming you could run the VM in a secure wrapper of some sort, I can't imagine it would be a huge concern for Sony--especially given that financial institutions like PayPal and media entities like Netflix, Hulu, etc. have Android apps that would need to be similarly secure. But let's assume the worst and say piracy would be rampant on Android. What's the alternative? The Vita isn't working out in North America. The PSP wasn't working out for about half its lifespan either. There's a fundamental problem in western markets where people just don't want to carry around a phone AND something else, and they sure as hell aren't going to leave their phone at home and take just a handheld. If it's Android without piracy or nothing, obviously Sony picks Android. If it's Android with rampant piracy or nothing, maybe Sony just picks nothing instead.

 

[MercuryLS]

The handheld market is done next gen, Sony won't touch this market anymore if they're smart. Nintendo will release a 3DS successor and it will struggle really badly. That's my prediction.

 

[oconnomiyaki]

Mobile is the future. I say this in every thread about handhelds: think about the last time you wanted to buy a dedicated camera or music player? Especially in the case of cameras, smartphone camera are average offerings, but they're convenient. Smartphones are the realization of convergence that has been talked about for so long. They are realistically now our portable life devices. So while the dedicated enthusiast might want a DSLR camera or a LP player or a dedicated handheld device with buttons, the average person is fine with their phone doing all this.

Now, that's not even addressing that smartphone games are showing more imagination than anything the traditional industry will put out. Traditional gaming is conservative and boring for the most part, and they're charging a premium to boot. Meanwhile, there's things like Monsters Ate My Condo and Tengami on iOS, and the former costs a buck. I can't even get a can of Coke here for that and the game has given me much more enjoyment and game time than Killzone: Mercenary. If you are looking at it from anything else than a pure tech perspective, smartphones are winning. And even in the tech perspective, it's close. I have been playing a Vita quality Ridge Racer on my phone, and it didn't cost me a penny! Heck, I'm on holiday at the moment and I have my Vita and my 3DS with me and I've touched neither because of the fun and convenience of smartphones. The only downside is battery drain.

I mean, if you're all about buttons, sure, it's a horrible, but it's an enthusiast niche. Dedicated handhelds are on the way out, and even Sony and Nintendo understand this. Sony will focus on phones and tablets via PS Now and Nintendo is going to do its QOL thing.

 

[RM8]

QOL thing.

Let's suppose you're Nintendo. You can choose either of these options:

a) QOL and 3DS
b) QOL and WiiU

"But it's an enthusiast niche" - well, niches can be profitable. And despite smart devices stomping all over digital cameras and music players, those still exist. Who would have thought?

 

[vagabondarts]

Even if Sony makes another handheld, what's it going to do?

PS4 graphics? I dunno, Japan is the only one supporting Vita and most games don't even match Wipeout 2048 or Uncharted GA in graphics.

Seems like a waste. I rather Sony just update the Vita like the Gameboy Color.

Faster processors so everything runs at native res but still uses the same architecture so last gen isn't left behind.

Yeah, I support this. Vita games look great to me.

 

[oconnomiyaki]

Let's suppose you're Nintendo. You can choose either of these options:

a) QOL and 3DS
b) QOL and WiiU

"But it's an enthusiast niche" - well, niches can be profitable. And despite smart devices stomping all over digital cameras and music players, those still exist. Who would have thought?

Yes, but as a public company, growth is expected. Demanded, even. They can't sit on a small but profitable niche. Trust me, I've had this conversation until I'm blue in the face within my company. That's why Nintendo is pursuing QOL, whatever it is. They see it as an avenue for growth.

EDIT: And yes obviously DSLR cameras and whatnot still exist. But there aren't too many companies doing just that. It's part of a portfolio. Nintendo's problem has always been that they do nothing else. They're looking to fix that. They don't want to be Kodak.

 

[RM8]

Yes, but as a public company, growth is expected. Demanded, even. They can't sit on a small but profitable niche. Trust me, I've had this conversation until I'm blue in the face within my company. That's why Nintendo is pursuing QOL, whatever it is. They see it as an avenue for growth.

So they actively looking for growth with QOL means they need to drop their niche? BTW Nintendo's home consoles are usually the real niche products.

 

[oconnomiyaki]

So they actively looking for growth with QOL means they need to drop their niche? BTW Nintendo's home consoles are usually the real niche products.

I didn't say they'd drop it. Not yet anyway. Just that they don't have their head in the sand like a lot of GAF. They can see the writing on the wall, they don't want to be part of the also-rans, so they're finding a new avenue for growth. It's smart. Even if handhelds end up bring a niche of 3 million worldwide, they can survive.

 

[ArtHands]

People need to stop looking at things like this as if a single generation of handheld or console is in any way indicative of a trend. The 3DS is not selling at DS levels, but it is selling on par with Handheld averages. The Vita bombed, but it's predecessor did quite well. For something to be a trend, it has to be moving in the same direction over multiple data points. If anything, the current state of the handheld market only points to things settling down after a huge handheld bubble. Both Sony and Nintendo could just a soon come up with a handheld concept that takes the world by storm, the same way Nintendo did with the Wii and DS and Sony did with the PS2 and now PS4.

The Game Industry does not function in the same way as the the vast majority of other industries. New hardware concepts are so few and far between that Trends are not a factor. Every release of new hardware is a reset button. At any given time, a new concept can take the world by storm or fall on it's face. The handheld market will persist just as long as the console market. The fear of the market collapse stems from no one having been able to Identify a concept that could have the next DS effect. My money is on Nintendo creating a OS ecosystem with a heavy focus on hybrid Console/Handheld hardware, but until we see it there is no way to know how the world will react.

There isn't any room for multiple data points. Its almost a free fall here.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

Decline of handheld in visual form.

US market, TTM.

With Vita dead dead, and 3DS down about 30% Y/Y, HH TTM is headed towards sub-3M. If nothing new launches or nothing else changes in 2015, and there isn't really anything on the horizon, then continued slide.
.

I wish we could see a little further back. A lot of that expansion was a genre changing handheld. I think with mobile taking a large chunk, they have to assume a lower margin, less (or no casuals) and roll. Maybe a 60 million seller is more realistic. If they can't succeed with those numbers...

 

[Tidus_Great]

on the console front i'm a big fan of Sony with thier blockbuster style games and focus on cinematic games.

on handhelds i kinda prefer the 3ds though with it's simpler and more unique games.

 

[shinra-bansho]

People need to stop looking at things like this as if a single generation of handheld or console is in any way indicative of a trend. The 3DS is not selling at DS levels, but it is selling on par with Handheld averages. The Vita bombed, but it's predecessor did quite well. For something to be a trend, it has to be moving in the same direction over multiple data points.

I'm not sure how much more of a trend you want. The direction is down.

Nintendo's US annualised handheld sales rate is 2M less than past historic lows. They're at around half of what they were during the GBA.
Sony's sales are essentially heading towards zero.
This despite new launches.

C.f. home market. Which has reversed decline despite Nintendo's failing, and when excluding Nintendo's failing is well within historical norm now after the two new launches.

 

[Yagharek]

I hope they hang around, because there are some phenomenal handheld only games. And they dont work anywhere near as well on a shitty smartphone interface.

 

[redcrayon]

I can't stand handhelds and their usage today is totally lost on me. People seem to want a second, weaker device just so they can sit at home next to a more powerful device and play it. I don't see the logic. This whole craze of wanting more devices for the sake of having access to more games is so strange. I mean, a lot the games on 3DS have better versions on Wii and Wii U. There's just no point unless you're going to actually play away from home.

Pokemon, Fire Emblem Awakening, Zelda: LBW, Animal Crossing, Phoenix Wright, Kid Icarus, none of those games are available on WiiU. Part of the problem with the WiiU is that, yes, a couple of games like Mario Kart, Mario Bros etc have equivalents on both but the 3DS has a superior range. I'd flip your statement around and say 'what's the point of having a WiiU and not a 3DS unless you value playing at home over having a much better games range'. Your argument of 'the numbers back me up on this' regarding phones vs portables also works against you here on 3DS vs WiiU.

"But plenty of people do play on the go".

Fair enough, but what adult has enough time outside of home (barring they're not in a hotel or public transportation or something) to justify dragging a full fledged video game around? Mobile games make more sense here, sorry, and the numbers seem to back me up on this.

Are you from the USA by any chance? Lots of adults in other countries spend an awful lot of time commuting, you make it sound like its a tiny fraction of their time. And adults aren't the only market. The Pokemon and Animal Crossing fanbases include all ages. Also, I like using handhelds at home as I can sit next to my fiancée while she watches the telly, rather than take up the whole front room to play a home console game. Your view of handheld uses seems quite narrow.

If the objective is 'carry something to waste 5 mins in my pocket' then sure, everyone has a phone. Of course the hardware numbers aren't going to be comparable. It's going to be like comparing smart TV sales to home consoles in five years time- if someone said 'what's the point of buying an extra device for Dark Souls IV or Elder Scrolls VII when your TV can already play Flappy Bird and FTP Dungeon Keeper on the big screen' I'd look at them a bit funny too. It doesn't mean there isn't a valuable smaller market for people who are prepared to pay a lot more for the specific games they want. Part of the problem with gaming at the moment is publishers identifying the single most valuable route and thinking that absolutely nothing else is worth pursuing, leaving valuable money on the table as they all aim for the CoD crowd or FTP trash.

I have a smartphone as well as a 3DS/Vita, and when I'm just heading into town or down to the pub, my phone is fine for a quick 5-minute blast on fruit ninja or PVZ, the only games I play on it (total spend £1.45). On the other hand, when commuting for three hours a day or on holiday, I always take a handheld (total spend well over £100 each a year).

Handhelds don't need to outsell phones and tablets to be viable, they just need to be profitable (and easy to develop for, something the Vita got right over the 3DS). Nintendo will still be up for another bite of the cherry, as 40m hardware sales and software profits on millions of games at £30+ a go is distinctly more than they would make on the App Store, even if it's less then they made on previous handheld generations it's still a lot of money. If the plan for their next systems with compatible software development, that they have invested a lot of the Wii/DS profits into, fails completely and they end up with WiiU level console sales and handheld sales dropping by half again, that's the time to start discussing the end of handhelds as a viable concept. Where Nintendo is concerned, the handhelds have been their primary moneyspinner for 25 years, not the home console. It's obvious the charts point downwards. They need to adapt or die, but they have said as much and are working on a solution. Whatever they come up with, it's fair to say that it won't be a simple repeat of the previous two handhelds.

The Vita, however, seems almost inexplicable in its lack of sales. How it has managed to lose the PSP crowd when you'd think that they are the portable gamers that haven't given up the action games and RPGs for smartphones is beyond me, it's a beautiful thing to play games on.

 

[Soul_Pie]

I think it's time to start thinking about a post-handheld world. Or at least handhelds being an extremely niche device that only enthusiast gamers want. What that means for a company like Nintendo that has always strived to deliver cheap, mass market handheld devices I don't know. I can see Sony not even giving us a successor to the Vita and trying to integrate their handheld section with their mobile division but I can't see Nintendo bowing out.

I think people need to realise that there's a lot of talent out there in the field of mobile and tablet games, and more and more studios seem to be forgoing development on traditional gaming platforms and jumping on the tablet/phone train which is gathering more and more steam. This isn't like the days when the average mobile game was a throwaway, bejewelled ripoff, there are some extremely thoughtful titles out there and in some ways they are innovating beyond what the likes of Nintendo and Sony are. They're also facing fewer barriers to development. In some ways the environment is a lot more pure, everyone has the chance in the mobile space, you can have teams of one or a few people with a good gameplay hook make an absolute success out of themselves. It seems like the only company with the opportunity to succeed on a platform like 3DS is Nintendo themselves.