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[jryi]

I'm actually interested in seeing the tail on Titan Fall.

Titanfall will probably have some sort of a long tail, but more on PC and maybe 360. To be able to exploit the tail, you have to have a large pool of laggards that bite when the price is cut. Attach rate on Xbox One is apparently quite high already.

Also, Titanfall's long tail may be hurt somewhat by it being a multiplayer only game. For example, I have bought both Call of Duty Black Ops games, when I got them for cheap, but I never touched the multiplayer. Kinda weird, I admit, but it's not unreasonable to assume that consumption habits of late adopters differ from those of early adopters.

Answered a bit in my previous post, but I'll expand on that. It's not about list wars, but rather generating that mind share of "well I can only play X, Y and Z games on PS4 " even though Joe Casual may not have explicit interest in buying games X Y or Z. Sony severely lacks that kind of mindshare anymore with only a handful of high profile first party titles from ND and GT that can actually pull it off.

I don't think Sony needs to justify the purchase of PS4 by telling the consumers that they can only play Kingdom Hearts or Final Fantasy on PS4. It is quite enough that people want to play those games on PS4 (for whatever reason).

The PS4 will probably take about a year. It will start to fall under but they'll get a big boost around September since it's an easy go-to gift and they'll undoubtedly have some very enticing packages available since the value of their hardware is rapidly declining.

You mean cost. The value is improving, when the games selection grows and you start finding first wave of games in bargain bins.

What do you guys think about the production numbers of PS4? It looks like supply is the only thing holding PS4 back at the moment, and it's only half a year until next holiday season. With a million produced a month, Sony could sell 15M by end of 2014, but this could mean another supply constrained holiday season, and I'm not sure that's a good thing for Sony.

Are they waiting to be able to cut down manufacturing cost or are they just playing it safe?

 

[robo]

What are the estmates for drop off for next month? 100k-150k off march's total.

 

[Maxim726X]

I had no idea that even existed. Until now. These screenshots... I don't even...

Man, the SNES is really being pushed to its limit these days.

 

[SwiftDeath]

More random questions!

Whats to total lifetime sales of the XB1 in the US and can we use that to extrapolate its sales in the rest of the world? Do we have any numbers from the EU? Even slightly older numbers from a Nintendo earnings call are something where we normally get that stuff

XB1 US LTD is 2527k as of March NPD

As per XB1 WW LTD, I tried my hand at estimating it here [note it is entirely dependent on how the ratio of US XB1 sales versus Rest of the World XB1 sales have or have not changed]

So I'll try my hand at estimating XB1 WW LTD based on previously released numbers thus will rely on some terrible assumptions I'm afraid

Xbox One: over 3 million sold to consumers in 2013

XB1 US LTD in 2013 = 909,132 [Nov. NPD] + 908,000 [Dec. NPD] = 1,817,132 units sold

1817/3000 = 0.6057 -> XB1 US sales for 2013 accounted for 60.57% of its WW sales

Thus with the new XB1 US LTD = 2,527,132

2527*(1/.6057) = 4172.26 -> Thus XB1 US LTD suggests XB1 WW LTD of 4,172,260

*Note I strongly feel that the XB1 sold better at launch in the rest of the world than it is currently doing since the last official WW sell-through number was given hence it is likely more than 60.57% of XB1 WW LTD sales are in the US

For instance if that number was now 65% [Less than 4% more than launch ratios], XB1 WW LTD would be 2527*(1/.65) = 3887.69 -> XB1 WW LTD of 3,887,690

I seriously think there's a decent chance XB1 WW LTD could be under 4M right now which is crazy

Albeit with Mort's tweet suggesting a strong internal MS source puts it at 4.4M - 4.55M WW I don't know

My best guess is probably 4.1M WW as I simply can't see that many sales outside the US compared to launch months

 

[BladeoftheImmortal]

Are like 80% of Vita owners NeoGaf members?

that and Japanese.

 

[GobFather]

Might be unrelated to the topic but I ran into someone in my apt building's computer lab. (I live in a "tech" apt building in SF so I meet a lot of tech people like developers and etc.) I saw that his computer had a powerpoint slide with "Sony Computer Entertainment"so I thought he worked for Sony and asked him. He said, "No. Sony Computer Entertainment is my client. I am a consultant and they hired me to give them advises." So I said, "Oh... what advises will you be giving?" He said ," Games and more games." and we both laughed about it. So anyways, just wanted to share that because I thought it's interesting that Sony is hiring consultants to improve their image, and to get advises although most companies might do it or it may seem common sense to us. lol

 

[Jinfash]

How far behind is the PS4's sw sales/attach rate for March? As great as the numbers were this month, considering what they were up against, it's worrying that they haven't been able to pull ahead in those areas consistently. Especially when considering pulling more 3rd party support from under MS.

 

[SwiftDeath]

How far behind is the PS4's sw sales/attach rate for March? As great as the numbers were this month, considering what they were up against, it's worrying that they haven't been able to pull ahead in those areas consistently. Especially when considering pulling more 3rd party support from under MS.

Aqua posted NPD LTD SW Attach Rates here [note for US only, retail only]

NPD Tie ratio comparisons:


Launch month:

XB1 tie ratio = 1.98
PS4 tie ratio = 1.89


Launch through January:

XB1 tie ratio = 2.71
PS4 tie ratio = 2.11


Launch through February:

XB1 tie ratio = 2.75
PS4 tie ratio = 2.18


Launch through March:

XB1 tie ratio = 2.96
PS4 tie ratio = 2.33


Again, the PS4 has a larger proliferation of free-to-play / digital games, and Titanfall sales were a boon to the Xbox One retail ecosystem.

 

[kinoki]

As Amirox and others have commented. Microsoft lost March: now what will happen in April and beyond when Microsoft has played the Titanfall-card? Depending on whether Xbox sales drop to 250k or 150k or even 100k and the PS4 sales stays at the current level we'll have an interesting couple of months ahead of us.

 

[Aquamarine]

Aqua posted LTD SW Attach Rates here [note for US only]

NPD only.

 

[SwiftDeath]

NPD only.

Right digital isn't tracked. I'll fix it

 

[TomShoe]

How far behind is the PS4's sw sales/attach rate for March? As great as the numbers were this month, considering what they were up against, it's worrying that they haven't been able to pull ahead in those areas consistently. Especially when considering pulling more 3rd party support from under MS.

Are you talking Worldwide?

Sony's is 2.93, Microsoft's is 2.9. I'm not sure about the US though.

 

[makingmusic476]

There's a number of reasons why I think the situation this gen is unique in a number of ways, and why looking at historical context may not be appropriate - including for PS4.

I mentioned this in the other topic:




That's why tracking clues to understand where the trajectory might go is very important, because the initial sales blast from this pent up demand and faster manufacturing and all these other elements is partially obscuring the "ground floor" of where these systems will actually end up in the average month-to-month. This was not a typical industry console launch for various reasons. Will XBO be hitting consistently 141k and under like January 2014 now that Titanfall hype is evaporating, or will it be nearer to something like 250k? Will PS4 always maintain a similar proportional lead over Xbox One from month-to-month? What will PS4's bottom out be and average non-holiday month end up being? Where will the trajectories eventually lead us?

The explosive opening launch salvo has certainly allowed the systems to start faster than previous gen, but will it allow the system to STAY faster than previous gens? That I am not sure of at all.

Yeah, this is how I feel.

Ever since we've learned that the ps4 would be performing neck and neck with the Xbox One or better in the US, I've expected the Xbox One's sales in its second year and beyond to fall well behind post-Gears 360. The loss of marketshare is too great to prevent that, unless the market as a whole grows substantially relative to ps3+360.

For the sales rate of Xbox One to not fall behind 360 at some point, either it'll have to start substantially eating into ps4's sales (possible, but unlikely), or XBO+PS4 will have to substantially outperform 360+PS3 lifetime in the US. And worldwide, assuming new market entrants like China don't completely change the global industry.

Lifetime sales for 360 and PS3 in the US are at, what, 45 and 25 million or somewhere around that? If we assume a total EOL install base of 70-80 million for PS4+XBO, of which XBO takes at best 50%, we're looking at 40 million tops. That's a very generous estimate, and it's at least 5 million less than 360's lifetime sales, despite the Xbox One's high launch.

 

[Metal Gear?!]

I'll will ban myself if Nintendo ends up in second place.

It's impossible.

Impossible. The die has been cast.

Hey it's always possible that new MS leadership ditches the Xbox division or Sony as a whole goes under...

...but even in those cases they will most likely sell the divisions to someone else...

...and as long as that someone else isn't Nintendo...

 

[EventHorizon]

just because it's behind doesn't mean it's a disaster or that it's doomed. Xbox One is still selling just fine.

It's a disaster or not depending on your point of view. If you view this from the perspective of Microsoft's plans and projections for the console, it could be fairly called a disaster. Microsoft has stated that they've made mistakes and will change so they've already acknowledged the 'disaster'.

Microsoft is no longer in the driver's seat. Although the future isn't set in stone, this latest NPR results pretty much confirms what many have been predicting, that the XB1 will lose to the PS4 this generation. TitanFall was MS's big push that they were advertising since launch and even that couldn't let MS win a single month in their most dominant country. That is a pretty big milestone and is worth noting.

It is not a disaster from the perspective from XB1 owners. I don't think anybody is predicting that the XB1 will lose third party support. Tying up exclusives will be more difficult, but MS could still do it if they wanted to throw some money around. The console will continue to have a good selection of games and provide enjoyment for those who chose to buy it.

While this is still wild speculation, this latest defeat does lend a tiny bit more credibility to some of the truly disastrous scenarios like the aforementioned drop in third party support, or Microsoft discontinuing or selling the Xbox division. I AM NOT saying that will happen, only that it is a possibility and discussions around those topics will pop up if any evidence at all happens to support them. Look at the talk regarding the dropping of Spiderman 2 for the XB1 for an example of this. So while it likely won't be a disaster for XB1 owners, it does mean that they will still have to put up with all the disaster talk.

 

[Aquamarine]

Yeah, this is how I feel.

Ever since we've learned that the ps4 would be performing neck and neck with the Xbox One or better in the US, I've expected the Xbox One's sales in its second year and beyond to fall well behind post-Gears 360. The loss of marketshare is too great to prevent that, unless the market as a whole grows substantially relative to ps3+360.

For the sales rate of Xbox One to not fall behind 360 at some point, either it'll have to start substantially eating into ps4's sales (possible, but unlikely), or XBO+PS4 will have to substantially outperform 360+PS3 lifetime in the US. And worldwide, assuming new market entrants like China don't completely change the global industry.

Lifetime sales for 360 and PS3 in the US are at, what, 45 and 25 million or somewhere around that? If we assume a total EOL install base of 70-80 million for PS4+XBO, of which XBO takes at best 50%, we're looking at 40 million tops. That's a very generous estimate, and it's at least 5 million less than 360's lifetime sales, despite the Xbox One's high launch.

Close.

360 LTD: 41.3 million

PS3 LTD: 25.8 million

 

[SargerusBR]

Curious though that GTA V finally is no longer in the top 10, maybe now R* will announce a PC release date.

 

[Dawnbuster]

For the sales rate of Xbox One to not fall behind 360 at some point, either it'll have to start substantially eating into ps4's sales (possible, but unlikely), or XBO+PS4 will have to substantially outperform 360+PS3 lifetime in the US. And worldwide, assuming new market entrants like China don't completely change the global industry.

IMO, China has the potential to be a brand new USA as far as MS and Sony are concerned. They both have to be salivating at the massive size of that market and the increasing wealth of the Chinese upper-middle class. That's a huge number of potential customers (also a huge number of potential pirates, if the Chinese PS2 launch back in the day is any indication).

Would the same millions of wealthy Chinese buying non-KIRF iPhones also snap up legit consoles? Maybe.

Sales projections and trends seem like they're settling into place in the West, but I wonder what having a new Asian market would do to game development ... what the ID@Xbox program's dirt cheap dev kits would mean to a Chinese population of young potential game developers. Could we see a whole new category and style of gaming born from China by the time this generation ends?

 

[SwiftDeath]

IMO, China has the potential to be a brand new USA as far as MS and Sony are concerned. They both have to be salivating at the massive size of that market and the increasing wealth of the Chinese upper-middle class. That's a huge number of potential customers (also a huge number of potential pirates, if the Chinese PS2 launch back in the day is any indication).

Would the same millions of wealthy Chinese buying non-KIRF iPhones also snap up legit consoles? Maybe.

Sales projections and trends seem like they're settling into place in the West, but I wonder what having a new Asian market would do to game development ... what the ID@Xbox program's dirt cheap dev kits would mean to a Chinese population of young potential game developers. Could we see a whole new category and style of gaming born from China by the time this generation ends?

Personally I'm fairly bearish on the chinese market as from what I can tell, they resemble the korean market in a lot of ways. Internet cafes, PC game centric

I'm not sure how receptive of console gaming such a market will be and can't envision it will be anything close to the US if that's what is meant by the West regardless of the untapped middle class there

 

[Andvary]

With that said, absofuckinglutely the Zune HD was a great piece of hardware. There's a reason it's still recommended to this day to people who are looking for a quality dedicated MP3.

Well, guess what isn't a great piece of hardware.

 

[QaaQer]

IMO, China has the potential to be a brand new USA as far as MS and Sony are concerned. They both have to be salivating at the massive size of that market and the increasing wealth of the Chinese upper-middle class. That's a huge number of potential customers (also a huge number of potential pirates, if the Chinese PS2 launch back in the day is any indication).

Would the same millions of wealthy Chinese buying non-KIRF iPhones also snap up legit consoles? Maybe.

Sales projections and trends seem like they're settling into place in the West, but I wonder what having a new Asian market would do to game development ... what the ID@Xbox program's dirt cheap dev kits would mean to a Chinese population of young potential game developers. Could we see a whole new category and style of gaming born from China by the time this generation ends?

China already has large and vibrant game development companies. They aren't sitting around waiting for the glorious west to drop their consoles before exploding in creativity. Further, Chinese shoppers have been able to buy whatever console they've wanted for yonks, although going to a city is necessary.

 

[thebigmanjosh]

I agree they'd net some new people, but again they don't exist in a vacuum. PS4 already gives you access to those apps without a sub, and it's a cheaper system and more powerful. Again, the value proposition still suffers in the shade of PS4. What they need to do is find a way to make the service BETTER to such a degree that it becomes a system seller in of itself. 1v.100 is a great idea, for example. They need a return to bold ideas like that.

I think we're on the same page...The problem with Live is there is no value and I don't see Microsoft cutting multiplayer from behind the paywall since nothing else demands the same value. Even if they removed the media apps from behind the paywall and implemented some kind of service/game like 1 vs. 100(which they're supposedly already working on:http://www.polygon.com/2014/1/27/5350684/microsoft-something-like-1-vs-100-coming-to-xbox-one), Microsoft would have to really work to create parity with PS+. Fundamentally I don't think that's the problem. Right now the PS4 is offering a much greater value than the X1, so the million dollar question isn't "how can we make a LIve sub more attractive while continuing to use it as a revenue stream", but "how can we make the XB1 platform as a whole a better value." Games could be the answer, but as we've seen with the Wii U, public perception may ultimately hold consumers back from investing entirely.

Still, I'm sure there are people out there right now thinking about all of this with hard facts in front of them and not a keyboard/opinion ready to push both PS4 and XB1 forward in whatever way benefits consumers and their respective companies.

 

[SenjutsuSage]

What are the odds a 399 xbone changes nothing? Hey look it's the same price as the PS4... But it is still a much weaker system with inferior versions of all multiplats. Why would anyone buy it? Even for $50-$100 less I think most gamers will feel the PS4 would be worth the extra money to get the best version of games.

That's one of the things that are being heavily overblown about the PS4 and Xbox One. There are some games where I think the differences are less flattering to the Xbox One than normal (MGS GZ, even though it looked better than I thought it would once I saw it running on an xbox one), but by and large, even with resolution differences, I'm not seeing any earth shattering graphical differences between Xbox One and PS4 titles. The PS4 gets superior multi-plats, but that doesn't exactly mean what I think some people think it does. These two systems are remarkably close to one another, even though the clear edge will always go in favor of the PS4's stronger hardware. But the point is we aren't exactly slumming over here on the Xbox One. It's a pretty capable system also.

We're getting the same exact game as what the PS4 is getting, with pretty much all or most of the same high quality art assets and graphical features enabled. I mean, people can crawl all over ground textures, bumps in the ground, or magnify an image 5 times to scrutinize each pixel, but if it isn't something that truly jumps out at me without looking too hard, then it doesn't matter to me. PS4 will commonly display superior AA or a higher native resolution, and that's fine. I knew when I got the system I wasn't likely to be on the receiving end of the better multi-plats. I understand and accept that. Many more considerations factored into my decision. So, this is kinda the same stuff any console gamer has seen and grown accustomed to now for years, except now instead of the PC or the 360, people are now constantly taking the chance to tell us about ps4 having superior multi-plats, and that's great for PS4 owners. But we'll be right there with you enjoying the same great looking games on our own next gen console.

Yes, dem "working man's graphics" . I went from getting both at launch to not being able to get either at launch, and I only recently got my xbox one last month. PS4 is more likely to be around August or September at the soonest for me. My biggest concern of all for a multi-plat game has always been watch dogs, because I'm really excited about that game. I hope it's solid on the Xbox One, because it's what I'll have to get it on for now. I have a powerful PC, but I prefer to play on my console. Only see myself getting it for PC if I'm really dissatisfied with how it turns out on Xbox One.

With regards to the price discussion, I think people are underestimating the Xbox One and overestimating the PS4 a little bit there. I've said from the get go I thought the PS4's biggest advantage was price. I don't believe resolution or specs are what's making the difference in the sales between the two systems. I think it's all heavily leaning on the price. I believed prior to launch that an Xbox One with Kinect at $399 would outsell the PS4 on an almost consistent basis, and I believe it still. I think the fact that the Xbox One is even selling as good as it is at $500 supports my suspicions. An Xbox One at $399 with no Kinect would change nothing for the Xbox One, I feel. In fact, I believe the PS4 would be beating the Xbox One even more convincingly without Kinect being in the picture, even at a $399 pricepoint. Kinect genuinely makes having the Xbox One a much better experience overall, which is why I think Microsoft getting rid of it, or making it an option, would be a terrible idea. That may sound nuts to some of you, but I honestly can't imagine the system without Kinect at this point.

And to get out in front of the criticism (I'm sure there's plenty to pick at in this post ), yes, I absolutely do think Kinect and it's inclusion on the Xbox One is more meaningful and impactful to the overall experience with the console than is the case for the PS4 having higher resolution games. That view, among other things I like about the system, are why I chose to get an Xbox One.

 

[KoopaTheCasual]

China already has large and vibrant game development companies. They aren't sitting around waiting for the glorious west to drop their consoles before exploding in creativity. Further, Chinese shoppers have been able to buy whatever console they've wanted for yonks, although going to a city is necessary.

Although I strongly disagree that the China market will grow to the size of the US market anytime soon, simple availability is not the biggest boon of the lift on the console ban. The biggest bonus from official releases in China is that they can actually market the product. We're not talking about enthusiasts gamers, who can get it if they want. We're talking about little Jimmy watching TV and (for the first time in his life) seeing a commercial for a PS4 and an XB1.

That said, MS at least seems very realistic about China sales expectancy early on, only planning on launching with 100k xboxes.

 

[stack9902]

just because it's behind doesn't mean it's a disaster or that it's doomed. Xbox One is still selling just fine.

the bigger picture for M$ will be later this fall when they launch in 26 more countries how they will fare with that, my suspicion is they might not do well since PS4 would by then have a strong foot hold in those areas, but anything is certainly possible and there are certainly plenty of current 360 owners yet to make the jump and perhaps when those folks do jump ahead, (lol lame my bad) then it may see a spark in sales for M$. It is likely that M$ is banking big on the US sales, which are good for now even in second place and may increase later this year depending on what software they can showcase at E3 and perhaps a nice price drop would help as well.

 

[NoMoreTrolls]

That's one of the things that are being heavily overblown about the PS4 and Xbox One. There are some games where I think the differences are less flattering to the Xbox One than normal (MGS GZ, even though it looked better than I thought it would once I saw it running on an xbox one), but by and large, even with resolution differences, I'm not seeing any earth shattering graphical differences between Xbox One and PS4 titles. The PS4 gets superior multi-plats, but that doesn't exactly mean what I think some people think it does. These two systems are remarkably close to one another, even though the clear edge will always go in favor of the PS4's stronger hardware. But the point is we aren't exactly slumming over here on the Xbox One. It's a pretty capable system also.

We're getting the same exact game as what the PS4 is getting, with pretty much all or most of the same high quality art assets and graphical features enabled. I mean, people can crawl all over ground textures, bumps in the ground, or magnify an image 5 times to scrutinize each pixel, but if it isn't something that truly jumps out at me without looking too hard, then it doesn't matter to me. PS4 will commonly display superior AA or a higher native resolution, and that's fine. I knew when I got the system I wasn't likely to be on the receiving end of the better multi-plats. I understand and accept that. Many more considerations factored into my decision. So, this is kinda the same stuff any console gamer has seen and grown accustomed to now for years, except now instead of the PC or the 360, people are now constantly taking the chance to tell us about ps4 having superior multi-plats, and that's great for PS4 owners. But we'll be right there with you enjoying the same great looking games on our own next gen console.

Yes, dem "working man's graphics" . I went from getting both at launch to not being able to get either at launch, and I only recently got my xbox one last month. PS4 is more likely to be around August or September at the soonest for me. My biggest concern of all for a multi-plat game has always been watch dogs, because I'm really excited about that game. I hope it's solid on the Xbox One, because it's what I'll have to get it on for now. I have a powerful PC, but I prefer to play on my console. Only see myself getting it for PC if I'm really dissatisfied with how it turns out on Xbox One.

With regards to the price discussion, I think people are underestimating the Xbox One and overestimating the PS4 a little bit there. I've said from the get go I thought the PS4's biggest advantage was price. I don't believe resolution or specs are what's making the difference in the sales between the two systems. I think it's all heavily leaning on the price. I believed prior to launch that an Xbox One with Kinect at $399 would outsell the PS4 on an almost consistent basis, and I believe it still. I think the fact that the Xbox One is even selling as good as it is at $500 supports my suspicions. An Xbox One at $399 with no Kinect would change nothing for the Xbox One, I feel. In fact, I believe the PS4 would be beating the Xbox One even more convincingly without Kinect being in the picture, even at a $399 pricepoint. Kinect genuinely makes having the Xbox One a much better experience overall, which is why I think Microsoft getting rid of it, or making it an option, would be a terrible idea. That may sound nuts to some of you, but I honestly can't imagine the system without Kinect at this point.

And to get out in front of the criticism (I'm sure there's plenty to pick at in this post ), yes, I absolutely do think Kinect and it's inclusion on the Xbox One is more meaningful and impactful to the overall experience with the console than is the case for the PS4 having higher resolution games. That view, among other things I like about the system, are why I chose to get an Xbox One.

So price is the only factor that's holding it back, not PR, not power, only price.

Okay, so why didn't it outsell PS4 when it was $450 with a game? That's about $10 less than a PS4 isn't it? And bundled with the Xbox One's killer app and the messiah of multiplayer gaming, no less.

What I mean to say is that price is only one factor among several that is preventing the Xbox from dominating the US and other markets.

the bigger picture for M$

You probably should avoid that kind of stuff here. Especially because any ban that you'd receive would be permanent.

 

[stryke]

the bigger picture for M$ will be later this fall when they launch in 26 more countries how they will fare with that, my suspicion is they might not do well since PS4 would by then have a strong foot hold in those areas, but anything is certainly possible and there are certainly plenty of current 360 owners yet to make the jump and perhaps when those folks do jump ahead, (lol lame my bad) then it may see a spark in sales for M$. It is likely that M$ is banking big on the US sales, which are good for now even in second place and may increase later this year depending on what software they can showcase at E3 and perhaps a nice price drop would help as well.

Grow up

 

[justsomeguy]

Close.

360 LTD: 41.3 million

PS3 LTD: 25.8 million

I would love to know what 360 LTD is when you take out the RROD replacements.

 

[noobie]

Can anybody tell if XBO attach rate of 2.9 includes digital games sales? or its only for retail games?

 

[QaaQer]

Although I strongly disagree that the China market will grow to the size of the US market anytime soon, simple availability is not the biggest boon of the lift on the console ban. The biggest bonus from official releases in China is that they can actually market the product. We're not talking about enthusiasts gamers, who can get it if they want. We're talking about little Jimmy watching TV and (for the first time in his life) seeing a commercial for a PS4 and an XB1.

That said, MS at least seems very realistic about China sales expectancy early on, only planning on launching with 100k xboxes.

Chinese parents =/= American parents. Broadly speaking, they will buy toys for their kids only if they believe they are educationally and developmentally beneficial, for example Lego bricks. There will be near zero 12 year old COD players.

Anyone expecting the Chinese market to contribute in any meaningful way to xbox, ps, or nintendo sales doesn't understand the Chinese market. The only way to that end is though partnerships, and those are risky for tech firms as Chinese business has a way hoodwinking Westerners and leaving them with their pants around their ankles, as the high speed rail companies from France, Germany, and Japan found out the hard way.

 

[...Scatter...]

The PC version does have Oculus Rift support!


Soda Drinker Pro is leading the charge for best ironically bad game on consoles. Will Sony be able to counter with a dong dong never die reveal at E3?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97sm0Kbk0P4

I watched the WHOLE THING. Couldn't look away. Topping it off by suplexing the car...perfect.

 

[Biker19]

IMO, China has the potential to be a brand new USA as far as MS and Sony are concerned. They both have to be salivating at the massive size of that market and the increasing wealth of the Chinese upper-middle class. That's a huge number of potential customers (also a huge number of potential pirates, if the Chinese PS2 launch back in the day is any indication).

Would the same millions of wealthy Chinese buying non-KIRF iPhones also snap up legit consoles? Maybe.

Sales projections and trends seem like they're settling into place in the West, but I wonder what having a new Asian market would do to game development ... what the ID@Xbox program's dirt cheap dev kits would mean to a Chinese population of young potential game developers. Could we see a whole new category and style of gaming born from China by the time this generation ends?

Although I strongly disagree that the China market will grow to the size of the US market anytime soon, simple availability is not the biggest boon of the lift on the console ban. The biggest bonus from official releases in China is that they can actually market the product. We're not talking about enthusiasts gamers, who can get it if they want. We're talking about little Jimmy watching TV and (for the first time in his life) seeing a commercial for a PS4 and an XB1.

That said, MS at least seems very realistic about China sales expectancy early on, only planning on launching with 100k xboxes.

I don't think that China's going to be this fairy tale in which PS4's & Xbox One's will be selling big there like you're both thinking. They're most likely gaming on PC's with MMORPG's, etc.

It'll most likely be the next India, if anything. Not even the PS2 scored big in India, & that was the most successful home gaming console of the 6th generation.

 

[SwiftDeath]

The only way to that end is though partnerships, and those are risky for tech firms as Chinese business has a way hoodwinking Westerners and leaving them with their pants around their ankles, as the high speed rail companies from France, Germany, and Japan found out the hard way.

Telecoms was like this to a tee as well

 

[SenjutsuSage]

So price is the only factor that's holding it back, not PR, not power, only price.

Okay, so why didn't it outsell PS4 when it was $450 with a game? That's about $10 less than a PS4 isn't it? And bundled with the Xbox One's killer app and the messiah of multiplayer gaming, no less.

What I mean to say is that price is only one factor among several that is preventing the Xbox from dominating the US and other markets.

Yes, price is one factor among several, but I genuinely believe price is EASILY the biggest obstacle. The problem with the bundle deals and such for the xbox one was that not everybody got to see those. I only knew about them because I paid attention to places like this, and even then I had deals I was looking at that ended up going away because I was one or two days too late. Those things won't have the kind of impact Microsoft expects it to, only a true and lasting price drop to ps4 levels will boost sales in any meaningful way. Everything else outside of that real price drop is just window dressing.

And, I don't remember what thread I made the post in, but I actually mentioned that I thought the Xbox One had already gotten all or most of the benefit it was ever going to get from Titanfall, and that I felt some of the early momentum that the Xbox One was seeing on release, likely had a good bit to do with Titanfall. So, while I do think the game delivers and is some serious fun, I think people put a lot more weight on what it would do on release than I did. I continue to believe it may have surprisingly good legs, however.

The other things like PR I think is mostly water under the bridge for the majority of average consumers. I think that more personal view on the PR is something that's largely held mostly within hardcore circles. People who could or would be affected by that, or even by the on-going resolution debate that will likely always be in the PS4's favor anyway, have already made their decisions. For the rest that are genuinely winnable by either side, I think the price is king crowd amounts to a much larger number of buyers than the spec and PR crowd. I could be wrong, but I personally feel it's all about price.

edit:; And to reiterate my earlier point. It has to be Kinect + the xbox one at PS4 levels to be a proper threat. If it's just the xbox one with no Kinect included at $399.99, the PS4 will have an even bigger field day than it already is. I think Kinect + xbox one at $399.99 would be a potential game changer.

 

[robo]

Ref the Chinese market, isn't it only the tech city area that is being opened up, not the whole country? Yet anyway.

Still its the tech area so they should gather a few buyers at least.

 

[SenjutsuSage]

I'm not too confident about China helping out Xbox One all that much, personally, but I guess time will tell.

 

[KoopaTheCasual]

I don't know guys, I don't think that China's are going to be this fairy tale in which PS4's or Xbox One's are selling big there like you're both thinking. They're most likely gaming on PC's with MMORPG's, etc.

It'll most likely be the next India, if anything. Not even the PS2 scored big in India, & that was the most successful home gaming console of the 6th generation.

But that's exactly what I said. It won't be anything spectacular, and India is actually is an apt comparison. The China venture will do ok numbers (i think lifetime would be a couple million 2-3 at the most optimistic), but every little bit counts.

Chinese parents =/= American parents. Broadly speaking, they will buy toys for their kids only if they believe they are educationally and developmentally beneficial, for example Lego bricks. There will be near zero 12 year old COD players.

Anyone expecting the Chinese market to contribute in any meaningful way to xbox, ps, or nintendo sales doesn't understand the Chinese market. The only way to that end is though partnerships, and those are risky for tech firms as Chinese business has a way hoodwinking Westerners and leaving them with their pants around their ankles, as the high speed rail companies from France, Germany, and Japan found out the hard way.

I'm wondering, are you speaking from experience? Because i was under the impression that the Chinese market was more about frugality in general and not so much boxed in by educational means.

I think since it's been known that the PS4, at the least, is trying to become a substitute for a cable box, that they'll pursue similar ventures in China, and partner with cable companies, so the intrinsic value of the PS4 would seem much higher than it would be traditionally. Of course this is all speculation, but it seems like a pretty logical measure to prepare for.

 

[Alchemy]

In the time period that Microsoft shipped 1.1 million units, Sony sold through 3 million.

Microsoft couldn't win the month that had the "biggest" game release of the generation for it, despite releasing a week before the biggest PS4 game of the year. NA traditionally values multiplayer shooters over single player titles and the software sales reflect that for the month with TitanFall beating inFamous, but Microsoft couldn't turn that into hardware sales.

Basically every retailer was offering heavy discounts of the Xbox One. Costco is selling the box for $450 flat out now, with many other places having much better deals (packed in games or extra months of Xbox Live). The value of these packages frequently exceeded the base value of the PS4 box, yet this didn't drive sales very high.

If anything, all TitanFall and the sales did was keep sales at a decent pace. We're going to see a massive drop off from now until the holiday season, and I fully expect Sony to continue to outsell the Xbone by at least 3 to 1. Having blown their TitanLoad, things could get even worse for Microsoft.

Right now price isn't the biggest problem, otherwise all the bundles and price drops would have made a serious impact. It is the entire package; price, content, and hardware. Microsoft has a major uphill battle this year, and the last thing they can afford is to let Sony gain too much momentum.

E3 is going to be incredibly important for Microsoft.

 

[SenjutsuSage]

I don't think that China's going to be this fairy tale in which PS4's & Xbox One's will be selling big there like you're thinking. They're most likely gaming on PC's with MMORPG's, etc.

It'll most likely be the next India, if anything. Not even the PS2 scored big in India, & that was the most successful home gaming console of the 6th generation.

I share this view about the Xbox One, but I think the PS4 has a real shot if it launches in China. Or am I too strongly associating China with Japan's reception of Xbox? I'm not too familiar with the market down there, so I'm just spit balling here.

 

[geordiemp]

the bigger picture for M$ will be later this fall when they launch in 26 more countries how they will fare with that, my

MS or Msoft is OK, M$ is not really, it paints a picture of MS being greedy and reality is most companies have aggressive sales and marketing departments, whether its EA or Activision or your favourite publisher....

All companies have suits and are similar, just some are smarter and have a better PR face...

Phil Spencer will change the image of MS console, if he had been calling the shots 2-3 years ago I think things would be different. Think Mattrick just read the market wrong...

 

[Quadraphonic]

edit:; And to reiterate my earlier point. It has to be Kinect + the xbox one at PS4 levels to be a proper threat. If it's just the xbox one with no Kinect included at $399.99, the PS4 will have an even bigger field day than it already is. I think Kinect + xbox one at $399.99 would be a potential game changer.

You're setting yourself up to never be able to be proven wrong.

The price has little to do with it, but the rules you setup for yourself (Price only proves to matter if they drop to $400 with Kinect), will not happen.

So when MS introduces the diskinected SKU at E3 for $399 and it doesn't help sales, you'll just say they needed the Kinect, when a minority of game owners want it.

 

[justsomeguy]

What are the odds a 399 xbone changes nothing? Hey look it's the same price as the PS4... But it is still a much weaker system with inferior versions of all multiplats. Why would anyone buy it? Even for $50-$100 less I think most gamers will feel the PS4 would be worth the extra money to get the best version of games.

On the first point - it's not ALL multiplats. Obviously the Xbox is objectively weaker. However some multiplats are equal. Others have negligible resolution differences (debatable, obviously - to me 900p vs 1080p isn't a big difference, to others it is), some have big res differences (MGS I'm looking at you). See the Titanfall 360 thread for lots of confirmation that even a fairly big difference in framerate, resolution and effects don't matter as long as the core game is unchanged ;-)

On the second part, this might be a revolutionary concept for a gaming forum but... maybe people bought an Xbox for ... the games? The "best version" of Titanfall, Forza, Halo, etc., are on the Xbox One (edit, unless you play on PC for Titanfall of course). That's not me trying to troll, it's just using your own term back.

I picked Xbox based on the fact that I want to play the Xbox exclusives. Knowing PS4 is more powerful is REALLY DAMNED ANNOYING, especially since I paid £429 for my Bone, but ultimately I made my choice based on the games I wanted to play. That choice is STILL the right one for me - and for other fans of the Xbox exclusives.

So, "why would anyone buy it" - for the games, duh. After all we are gamers, right? Price has a major impact, especially in the core gamer demographic - so take the price difference out of it and the conversation goes back to being about games. Some of that conversation is "most/many multiplats run better on PS4", but some of it is "Damn, I need that Halo/Quantum Break/GoW" machine.

Finally the power difference - to some people it really isn't that big a deal. I can afford to drop £350 on a PS4 and to be frank I'm looking for an excuse to as I love shiny new toys, but since I already have one console I'm not seeing enough of a reason to yet. The power difference isn't worth £350, I'd rather spend that upgrading my PC.

 

[geordiemp]

I share this view about the Xbox One, but I think the PS4 has a real shot if it launches in China. Or am I too strongly associating China with Japan's reception of Xbox? I'm not too familiar with the market down there, so I'm just spit balling here.

I did a google search and found that you can get copies of Ps4 games and rip them yourself...

So probably same for Xbox ONE....

No protection in china, so probably why nobody is falling over themselves...

 

[Nightengale]

IMO, China has the potential to be a brand new USA as far as MS and Sony are concerned. They both have to be salivating at the massive size of that market and the increasing wealth of the Chinese upper-middle class. That's a huge number of potential customers (also a huge number of potential pirates, if the Chinese PS2 launch back in the day is any indication).

Potential. Similar to India, which ended up being 'meh'.

Would the same millions of wealthy Chinese buying non-KIRF iPhones also snap up legit consoles? Maybe.

The biggest question for the gaming market in places like China is 'will gamers there even pay a cent for games, when they aren't even paying for mobile apps?'

Paid apps are being made available for free on China through alternative app stores pre-installed in stuff like Lenovo and Xiaomi phones... just as China has services that preload dozens of premium apps for you free of charge. The value of software there is perceived to be close to nil. There's a reason why F2P is king, and why the whole structure of preloaded point cards, etc exist to give a certain physicality and reduce barriers to payment in F2P.

but I wonder what having a new Asian market would do to game development ... what the ID@Xbox program's dirt cheap dev kits would mean to a Chinese population of young potential game developers. Could we see a whole new category and style of gaming born from China by the time this generation ends?

If you have the opportunity, I'd recommend you give China a visit, especially one of their internet cafes. China has long, long been a vibrant gaming development scene. The only difference is that it's truly PC-master race there.

Some examples of games built in the Chinese development scene...

speed.qq.com/‎
jx3.xoyo.com/‎
xy2.163.com/‎
http://games.sina.com.cn/tl/index.shtml
http://xy2.163.com/2007/xy3/
http://www.xishanju.com/
http://www.pcgames.com.cn/

As someone who occasionally plays Chinese games ( holy hell, they can be ridiculously unpolished at times ), you're all missing out so much. I wish there was more synergy between the scenes... I'd love to see a pure wuxia or Journey to the West RPG made with the level of polish found in AAA-studios.

 

[jryi]

In the time period that Microsoft shipped 1.1 million units, Sony sold through 3 million.

To be fair, the difference between shipped and sold-through during Q1 has to be negligible. There's no way channels would buy 3.9M boxes, fail to move them and still buy 1.1M more.

There were 900k shipped but not sold boxes at the end of the year. I bet there are less now (making the sold-to-customers number something like 4.1 - 4.4M). Although, depending on what the forecast of Titanfall bundle was, there might be more unsold boxes now. I have no idea.

 

[vulcanM3CH_187]

Being a Playstation guy I am surprised Sony was able to pull this off. Hats off to them. Wondering what Microsoft can you pull out the hat to counter this PS4 train. LONG. LIVE. PLAY!

 

[SenjutsuSage]

So price is the only factor that's holding it back, not PR, not power, only price.

Okay, so why didn't it outsell PS4 when it was $450 with a game? That's about $10 less than a PS4 isn't it? And bundled with the Xbox One's killer app and the messiah of multiplayer gaming, no less.

What I mean to say is that price is only one factor among several that is preventing the Xbox from dominating the US and other markets.

You probably should avoid that kind of stuff here. Especially because any ban that you'd receive would be permanent.

And one more thing: Even with that deal, I still ended up having to pay like $488 for my xbox one last month once tax was factored in, and I might've gotten a bit of a break on the shipping also since I have Amazon prime.

So, as much deals like that help, I could've easily ended up paying over $500 or more quite easily. It's going to take a real price drop to make a real difference. $50 helps, but $100 would be even better. But that's for Microsoft to worry about. They have to find a way to bring the price down, preferably without throwing Kinect under the bus, because I continue to be impressed at how it's selling, but how much longer can it really keep up this pace at that price is the real question.

 

[Nightengale]

I share this view about the Xbox One, but I think the PS4 has a real shot if it launches in China. Or am I too strongly associating China with Japan's reception of Xbox? I'm not too familiar with the market down there, so I'm just spit balling here.

Until I see either consoles literally creating unique mechanisms and getting the experiences tailored to the Chinese audience, I'm going to laugh and say that PS4 and Xbox One? NO CHANCE.

And when I say unique mechanisms, I mean stuff like:

- all the top 50 most played games in China. (LoL, DOTA2, Blade & Soul, Crossfire, Dream of 3 Kingdoms, Swordsman, Fantasy Journey to the West all the MMOs, etc)
- pre-paid cards/points for all F2P games, and the ability to top them up as needed ( without going online, hard cash)
a full-on rental mechanism built into the consoles, allowing you to rent games by the hour. ( no PSNow nonsense, all games preloaded in the console. )
- cheaper games. At least 50% cheaper compared to the the standard $60 price-point.
- hell, makes some paid games free if you have to, and just throw in 9 levels of monetisation hell onto it instead.
- NO ONLINE PAYWALL.
- Partnerships with the biggest gaming community/cyber-cafes with consoles at said locations, try to build a LAN-local experience similar to how gamers hang out in cybercafes together.

 

[Liabe Brave]

Thus, the circumstances made a possibility to expect very big sales for March, which is a month with better average sales than January but worse than February historically, but PS4 has had clear problems in satisfying the demand earlier in the year, with February being the biggest representation of this. Average weekly sales didn't increase that much ...Thus, PS4 could be already in the 200,000/220,000 zone in April, which doesn't mean doing bad, as I already stated. At all. It would mean doing certainly well, but not very well, or as big as the main 8th generation console (for now) could have done in the past.

Your expectations were too high. The number PS4 sold this March? Even the Wii only managed to hit that level in half of its Marches (4 out of the last 8). The 360 only did it twice in 9 Marches. Neither one of them did it in their first March, like PS4 just did.

Yes, sales will almost certainly decline in April for PS4, even notably decline. They will not keep up with Wii on a month-to-month basis...but they will continue to exceed 360 well into the future. That is doing very well, given that it points to a sales trajectory solidly in the PS2/Wii/360 tier.

 

[Biker19]

Your expectations were too high. The number PS4 sold this March? Even the Wii only managed to hit that level in half of its Marches (4 out of the last 8). The 360 only did it twice in 9 Marches. Neither one of them did it in their first March, like PS4 just did.

Yes, sales will almost certainly decline in April for PS4, even notably decline. They will not keep up with Wii on a month-to-month basis...but they will continue to exceed 360 well into the future. That is doing very well, given that it points to a sales trajectory solidly in the PS2/Wii/360 tier.

I agree. I think that PS4 will wind up selling between Xbox 360/PS3 numbers & Wii/PS1 numbers at the very least if this keeps up. PS4 having "PS2 domination numbers" is impossible though, unless Japan takes back the industry from the West for consoles & is the driving force behind the gaming industry again, as they were most likely responsible for PS1 & PS2 being so big (along with PS2 having a DVD player).

But with the way that things are currently going, that isn't likely to happen.