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November 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 8th

D

DieH@rd

Banned
Finally a month when things will get interesting™! :)

I'm going with big numbers:
[PS4] 2010K
[XB1] 1630K
[WIU] 352K

Another prediction, RotTR will not be in top10.

edit - tweaked for higher sales
 
Stilton Disco

Stilton Disco

Member
[PS4] 1315k
[XB1] 1057k
[3DS] 468k
[WIU] 321k

Software wise I'm expecting BF to top the charts, then Fallout, and COD rounding out the top 3. Halo and RotTR won't chart, and TR will see less than a third of the sales TR13 did.
 
T

Trust me. I'm a PhD

Member
[3DS] 435K
[PS4] 1350K
[WIU] 365K
[XB1] 1150K

3DS down YoY thanks to no (real) Pokémon and luke warm Black Friday deals. WiiU up YoY thanks to having actual Black Friday deals this year instead of that "bundle in stuff and raise the price" weirdness of last year. Both PS4 and Xbox1 are a mixed bag of great deals (Uncharted/gears bundles with extra goodies) and missed opportunities (why no 300 Star Wars/Fallout bundles?). Overall, they will do mostly the same during Black Friday, which leaves the victory to who was doing better up until that point; easily the PS4.

Edit1: Uped WiiU. Their holiday bundle at 300USD would be an improvement over last year, so at 250USD it really should give them growth over last year.

Edit2: In light of MS PR about Black Friday being up year over year (but not necessarily for the whole month) I am moving both up a little.
 
T

Tratorn

Member
I think XB1 will win BF week, while PS4 wins the rest. In summary XB1 will have the lead, but difference won't be as large last year.

[XB1] 1111K
[PS4] 1234K
[WIU] 333K
[3DS] 411K

Edit: Since BF seems closer than I thought, I changed my mind and think PS4 won the month, because of the time before the BF week.
 
D

Deleted member 471617

Unconfirmed Member
Chobel said:
Some interesting info: Adobe estimates that XB1 was the top selling console on Black Friday in the US via online retail according to their tracking & predictions


Thanks Zhuge!
Click to expand...

Not going by that link. Article was posted yesterday at 8:47 PM EST which would mean what the remaining three plus hours on the east coast and the six plus hours on the west coast doesn't count? A lot of stores were open to 10PM local time if not to midnight in order to be open for the entire day. And even if it's true, top selling is good but by how much? If Microsoft doesn't dominate this holiday season, then all hope for them is lost because 2015 is most likely the last chance that they will get to catch up in NA.
 
D

Deleted member 471617

Unconfirmed Member
stryke said:
woah some people are getting bit too enthusiastic here.
Click to expand...

Not really. For November, I think that both consoles will easily sell more than last year and for Black Weekend (Thanksgiving through Sunday), both consoles will surpass last year especially PS4 because when you think about it, compared to last year, this year is actually a $100 price drop for four days. That's actually pretty big in my opinion.
 
N

N.Domixis

Banned
Ps4 will win overall, they seem to be close this time, so ps4 having its preorders will push it ahead overall on NPD. Say ps4 sells 600k and xbox sells 700k on BF, with the preorders from previous months it would push it above xbox.
 
S

stryke

Member
daniel77733 said:
Not really. For November, I think that both consoles will easily sell more than last year and for Black Weekend (Thanksgiving through Sunday), both consoles will surpass last year especially PS4 because when you think about it, compared to last year, this year is actually a $100 price drop for four days. That's actually pretty big in my opinion.
Click to expand...

The only console that's ever reached had 2 million in Nov is Wii. PS4 is not a Wii phenomenon.
 
D

Deleted member 471617

Unconfirmed Member
stryke said:
The only console that's ever reached had 2 million in Nov is Wii. PS4 is not a Wii phenomenon.
Click to expand...

Perhaps not but at the same time, considering what Wii U is, you could also consider the Wii a fluke. It goes both ways.
 
B

BokehKing

Banned
Oh man, here we go

[PS4] 1375k
[XB1] 1320k
[3DS] 330k
[WIU] 455k

my ps4 / X1 numbers can easily be swapped with each other, it can go either way.
 
D

DrWong

Member
daniel77733 said:
Perhaps not but at the same time, considering what Wii U is, you could also consider the Wii a fluke. It goes both ways.
Click to expand...

Yes sure, nice console war attitude but your prediction is still super off which is a problem because you'll fuck GAF aggregate.
 
bryanee

bryanee

Member
Ok - I was soooo wrong last month, lets see if I can do better with this months.

[3DS] 505K
[PS4] 1100K
[WIU] 370K
[XB1] 910K
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I think the "interesting" comparison is whether or not Xbone will be up year on year. PS4 has to be or else the alarm bells should start ringing.
 
N

noshten

Member
Y2Kev said:
I think the "interesting" comparison is whether or not Xbone will be up year on year. PS4 has to be or else the alarm bells should start ringing.
Click to expand...

Do we know exactly how much they sold last year?
Can't wait to see if George shows up
 
J

Jack The Nipper

Banned
Want this one depend on supply?

I assume December depends on supply even more. How many stores stay stocked and his many are sold out. Always best to have stock everyday which has been issues in the past.

I used to do inventory numbers for a ton of stores, on hands and numbers sold. Back last generation. They all had stock issues at different points of the generation.

I hope we can do halo and tomb raider as well.

Halo 4 180k
Tomb raider 240k
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
NPD TOP 10 ( Withouth bundle)

1) Call of Duty: Black Ops III (XBO; PS4; 360; PS3; PC)
2) Fallout 4 (PS4; XBO; PC)
3) Star Wars: Battlefront ( PS4; XBO; PC)
4) NBA 2K16 ( PS4; XBO; 360; PS3)
5) Madden NFL16 ( PS4; XBO; 360, PS3)
6) Halo 5: guardians ( XBO)
7) Minecraft ( 360; PS3; XBO; PS4)
8) FIFA 16 ( PS4; XBO; 360; PS3)
9) WWE 2K16 ( PS4; XBO; 360; PS3)
10) Disney Infinity 3.0 ( 360; WIU; WII; XBO; PS3; PS4)

Including bundle
BO III - 5,500,000
FO4 - 2,500,000
SW - 2,400,000
RoT - 300,000

cartoon_soldier said:
What were the figures for the other consoles?
Click to expand...

Dude, i mean...
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=187048433&postcount=34
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=187048760&postcount=39
 
D

DieH@rd

Banned
Jack The Nipper said:
I used to do inventory numbers for a ton of stores, on hands and numbers sold. Back last generation. They all had stock issues at different points of the generation.
Click to expand...

If I remember correctly, Sony representative admitted they had PS4 stock issues during last holiday season.
 
J

Jack The Nipper

Banned
Sony and ms both made a mistake it isn't what comes with your system of you want to move everything it. Throw in digital codes for knack, the order and something. That doesn't hurt them. Just get the lower price as ms showed last year. 269 WITH very big promotional materials for all the retail stores and. Little black Friday musings would have been donation along with a bigger supply for the push. This 299 thing was ok but it simply wasn't the push people were wanting. 349 is going to be rough next year... They better do 299 ASAP.
 
J

Jack The Nipper

Banned
DieH@rd said:
If I remember correctly, Sony representative admitted they had PS4 stock issues during last holiday season.
Click to expand...
Yep, ps3 had a lot of issues with stock. Would be out weeks at a time and missing tax season buyers.

Now I'm not saying Ps3 did worse cause it was often out of stock while 360 wasn't. But if you consider how a store orders and replenishes you do create a stock and sales issue of writing time. With the 360 doing 40 a week for example, and you don't run out of stock, well the store will order more and retain more this being easier to keep sales. Then you had the ps3 hitting 26 or less but was out of stock a lot and got less back in stock. So even if people wanted a ps3 they were out of luck and Xbox was there. This can become a huge issue just not in sales but mindshare and sales. This was near year 4 of last generation btw. I didn't do any sales tracking or stock this generation. Just think it's an interesting phenomenon.


I was able to track sales and on hands for 20 plus stores and ps3 often had low on hands in most
 
K

Kralamoonard

Member
First prediction ever: not sure why I haven't done this before. Let's do this!

[3DS] 450K
[PS4] 1150K
[WIU] 290K
[XB1] 1050K

Also am I correct in assuming Donny2112 (OP) is Aquamarine's alt account?
 
Aceofspades

Aceofspades

Banned
Jack The Nipper said:
Sony and ms both made a mistake it isn't what comes with your system of you want to move everything it. Throw in digital codes for knack, the order and something. That doesn't hurt them. Just get the lower price as ms showed last year. 269 WITH very big promotional materials for all the retail stores and. Little black Friday musings would have been donation along with a bigger supply for the push. This 299 thing was ok but it simply wasn't the push people were wanting. 349 is going to be rough next year... They better do 299 ASAP.
Click to expand...

Meanwhile Sony reported 30.2m PS4 sold in before black Friday. Going lower than 299 is just gonna be lost revenues, PS4 is selling well regardless.
 
Coulomb_Barrier

Coulomb_Barrier

Member
Hmmm. I did expect Star Wars: Battlefront to have a larger launch week sales impact than it did, so the corollary of that is that PS4 sales haven't been helped as much as was expected by many from the game.

Maybe what we should have considered more is that the game released a fair while before the film opens in cinemas. I also think it is logical to expect the game to sell well around the film's release.

Holding on my predictions until Shogun gives us his retail insight.
 
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